Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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01-15-12 04:03 PM - Post#117259
It seems like a number of the BU ooc opponents have been doing pretty well lately. A quick recap with each team's current Pomeroy rating in parentheses:
MINNESOTA (59) - lost their All-Big 10 PF Trevor Mbakwe to a knee injury shortly after the BU game but still beat VA Tech in early December; lost four Big 10 games to good teams but just handed Indiana its 2nd loss of the year - on the road no less.
VANDY (34) - struggled some in December with OT losses to Xavier and Louisville, plus a bad loss to Indiana State. But has now won seven in a row, including a road win over a very good Marquette team plus three SEC wins.
ST. FRANCIS (294) - Don Friday's squad has struggled, having lost their All-NEC SG (Umar Shannon) for the year just prior to the Bison game and then having to throw their good PG (Johnson) off the team a couple of weeks later, leaving them with a frosh as their starting PG. Plus they had a very good PF (Felder) transfer to Miami (OH) over the summer. Not surprisingly, they have struggled - but are 3-3 in the NEC after an upset win over Quinnipiac yesterday. They also beat AU last month.
MARIST (279) - probably a little better than people thought; now 2-4 in the MAAC, with wins over Rider and St Peters.
PRINCETON (130) - had been playing well after a slow start under new coach Mitch Henderson; highlights are a road win over Rutgers and, especially, a 3 OT win at Florida State, who was picked for 3rd in the ACC. Over the weekend, lost at Cornell Friday but then won at Columbia Saturday in the opening Ivy weekend. Have now won 9 of their last 12 games.
MOREHEAD STATE (227) - Has probably played about as expected. Struggled a lot early but has won 5 of their last 8. Highlight may have been a win over Billy Taylor's Ball State squad, who is currently 10-5.
GEORGE MASON (96) - Currently 10-5 and is tied for 1st in the CAA with a 5-1 record. Since playing BU, they are 9-3 with have good wins over College of Charleston, Manhattan, ODU, and Georgia State. (The latter two are also tied for 1st place.) Only losses are at Virginia and Drexel, and home vs Duquesne.
LA SALLE (55) - Much better than anyone expected prior to the season. Currently 2-1 in the A10, with wins over good Xavier and UMass teams plus a loss at a good Dayton squad. The three teams they played all are tied for 1st in the A10 btw with one loss. Also beat Penn recently by 11 pts in the Palestra and routed Boston U.
BINGHAMTON (342) - Every bit as bad as we thought at the time of the game with them. Their closest game of the year is a 4-point home loss to Colgate in their opener.
RICHMOND (88) - Beat Temple by 11 pts yesterday to go to 2-1 in A10 play. Also had a good win over ODU just after the loss at Sojka. Their only losses since BU are on the road to good UCLA and Charlotte squads.
SYRACUSE (4) - I'm sure everyone knows the SU is #1 in all the polls. They are 6-0 in Big East play, winning by an average margin of 17 points. Beat Villanova on the road by 13 and then Providence at home by 23 in the past five days. Will have interesting games in the next few weeks vs West VA, Georgetown, and UConn.
BOSTON U (214) - Has been a bit worse than expected, with the loss of center Jake O'Brien for the season being a contributing factor. Have won their last three league games to move to 3-1 in AE - tied for 1st in the loss column.
LOYOLA (MD) (139) - Getting better every week, which makes the BU loss to them look less bad every week. Tied for 1st in the MAAC with a 5-1 record. Beat Fairfield on the road Friday night. Have a showdown for 1st today on the road vs a very good Iona team. Unlikely they will win that one.
CORNELL (199) - About as good as expected. Took Illinois and PSU down to the final seconds before losing. Also lost in OT at Stony Brook and lost a fairly close game at Maryland. Split over the weekend with Princeton and Penn.
DARTMOUTH (299) - Not much to say. Poor record but did get a 17-win over Longwood yesterday.
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bison75
Masters Student
Posts: 487
Reg: 01-26-06
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01-15-12 09:25 PM - Post#117283
In response to Bison137
Good stuff. Thanks.
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bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
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01-16-12 01:51 AM - Post#117293
In response to bison75
So based on current Pomeroy, LU at #75 is the fifth highest ranked team we play this year. only LaSalle, Minny,Vandy, and Syracuse rank higher. Thus, a win on Wed. would be, again based on Pomeroy, our best of the season.
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candyfan
Masters Student
Posts: 459
Reg: 01-10-10
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01-16-12 12:12 PM - Post#117311
In response to bison75
Yeah, my thanks also for the info on BU opponents.
Great work on your part!
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Bison89
Professor
Posts: 5370
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-14-07
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01-16-12 01:26 PM - Post#117319
In response to candyfan
Yeah, my thanks also for the info on BU opponents.
Great work on your part!
Pomeroy has Lehigh at 75, but realtimerpi.com has their RPI at 115 with Bucknell at 85 (as of this past Saturday).
Also, realtimerpi.com has Bucknell as an 11 point dog at Lehigh! So, yes, Lehigh is definitely our highest ranked remaining PL opponent.
GO BISON!
| New season, new team, new dream . . . |
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bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
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01-16-12 01:45 PM - Post#117322
In response to Bison89
Not sure how a team with an 85 RPI playing a team with a 115 RPI is an 11 point dog--even on the road. But I do agree that we go into this contest as a slight dog.
Interestingly, LU has scored 70+ in all 19 games. While their schedule overall has not been as strong as ours, most of their wins have been by more than 10 points. I am not sure what to make of the fact that they have only won one really close game, a very good road win at Wagner. Is their lack of close games an indication of how strong they are, or if this game is close, will we have the advantage?
Pressure is on them more than us, since this one is in their gym. They will draw strength from the way they played us in the semis last season. While I think the pressure is on them, it is an opportunity for the Bison to step up and to shut up those of us who have questioned their intensity. This can be a statement game for us.
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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01-16-12 02:39 PM - Post#117327
In response to bison63
Not sure how a team with an 85 RPI playing a team with a 115 RPI is an 11 point dog--even on the road. But I do agree that we go into this contest as a slight dog.
Interestingly, LU has scored 70+ in all 19 games. While their schedule overall has not been as strong as ours, most of their wins have been by more than 10 points. I am not sure what to make of the fact that they have only won one really close game, a very good road win at Wagner. Is their lack of close games an indication of how strong they are, or if this game is close, will we have the advantage?
Agree that 11 points is too much. Both Pomeroy and Sagarin have LU as a 7-point favorite - half of which is the home court advantage. That sounds about right.
As for LU's scoring, there are a couple of factors. First, they are definitely a good offensive team - scoring 1.086 pts per possession as compared to BU's 1.067. (Average is 1.004.) But another factor in them scoring so much is their fast pace of play - averaging almost 70 possessions per game as compared to BU's 63.5 ppg. This difference in pace of play would add 7 points to LU's average score, even if their offense was identical to BU's.
Hard to say what their record in close games means - but they have had only three that were real close in the final 90 seconds: (1) the 1-point win at Wagner where D'Orazio hit a three at the buzzer; (2) an OT loss at Cornell; and (3) the St. John's loss, where LU blew a large lead. Losing a close game at St. John's might seem like a good outcome for LU - but don't forget St John's is very inexperienced this year and has no depth. Currently every team BU has lost to this year is stronger than St. John's, as are Princeton and Richmond.
I think the game may well be decided by PG play. LU has an experienced soph PG, Mackey McKnight, who is a good player - plus they have a solid frosh PG in Corey Schaefer. If BU's duo of Hill/Kaspar can play fairly equally with LU's PG's, then I think the Bison have a good shot to win it.
BTW, given the BU inexperience at PG, I would not be at all surprised if LU tries the trapping defense that broke the game open two years ago in Bethlehem - where they trapped almost every time a Bison tried to dribble around a ball screen. That stretch of the game was painful to watch, as BU seemed completely unprepared for it. Looking back, BU had 11 turnovers - 10 by guards/wings - in 16 minutes. Turned the ball over on 42% on their possessions over that time span. Then almost no turnovers in the second half - after it was too late.
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MrPhillie
Postdoc
Posts: 2757
Loc: NE PA
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01-16-12 03:59 PM - Post#117331
In response to Bison137
BTW, given the BU inexperience at PG, I would not be at all surprised if LU tries the trapping defense that broke the game open two years ago in Bethlehem - where they trapped almost every time a Bison tried to dribble around a ball screen. That stretch of the game was painful to watch, as BU seemed completely unprepared for it. Looking back, BU had 11 turnovers - 10 by guards/wings - in 16 minutes. Turned the ball over on 42% on their possessions over that time span. Then almost no turnovers in the second half - after it was too late.
Based on this recent history and the fact that the Hill/Kaspar/Ayers PG rotation is still relatively inexperienced, I would expect to see some form of constant pressure. If I had the horses to do it (and I think Lehigh has good personnel for the job) I would definitely test the young Bison backcourt. While Hill/Kaspar are making strides, I still do not have total trust in their ball-handling and decision-making. Lafayette is not a good defensive team and do not have quick, athletic guards (aside from Johnson), so we have to keep Bucknell's weekend performance in proper context.
I liked Bucknell's focus and intensity on Saturday and I am hopeful that continues on Wednesday. Better yet, I'd love to see it taken to another level because in truth, Lehigh is a far better team than is Lafayette. I'd like to see Kaspar/Hill/Ayers and even Cohen take it to the Lehigh defense. If they play conservative and to not make mistakes, that could be trouble. That said, they need to attack with a plan and under control. I'm sure they will sag on MM and almost dare the others to make the shots.
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JDBison2010
Masters Student
Posts: 763
Loc: Charleston, SC
Reg: 11-23-10
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BU OOC Opponents - how they've been doing
01-16-12 05:20 PM - Post#117346
In response to MrPhillie
I'd like to see Kaspar/Hill/Ayers and even Cohen take it to the Lehigh defense.
Cohen seems to be taking smarter shots and getting his shot back over the last 2 games, granted he did score just 4 points against Lafayette, he has hit 8 of his last 12 shots. I distinctly remember him hitting a turn around jumper 2 games in a row which is nice to see but I don't want him driving to the basket with the reckless abandon that he has become known for. Good for a travel or a charge every game. Tends to get trapped and inevitably makes a poor decision
Edited by JDBison2010 on 01-16-12 05:21 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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baudolino
Masters Student
Posts: 552
Loc: The bubble
Reg: 10-24-07
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01-16-12 08:51 PM - Post#117364
In response to MrPhillie
Based on this recent history and the fact that the Hill/Kaspar/Ayers PG rotation is still relatively inexperienced, I would expect to see some form of constant pressure.
I'm not sure why you bring up what happened two years ago, but completely discount what happened last year in Bethlehem.
Frankly, the only team this year that gave us trouble with the press was Loyola. Cornell tried, but they weren't as effective (and Cornell handled Lehigh). I don't see Lehigh having the same kind of athletes that Loyola has, so I guess what I'm saying is that my bet is that the press might give us some trouble, but it will not be the key to the game. The key is what team successfully shuts down CJ or Mike. That's it.
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Bison54
PhD Student
Posts: 1800
Reg: 11-18-09
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01-16-12 09:43 PM - Post#117365
In response to baudolino
Based on this recent history and the fact that the Hill/Kaspar/Ayers PG rotation is still relatively inexperienced, I would expect to see some form of constant pressure.
I'm not sure why you bring up what happened two years ago, but completely discount what happened last year in Bethlehem.
Frankly, the only team this year that gave us trouble with the press was Loyola. Cornell tried, but they weren't as effective (and Cornell handled Lehigh). I don't see Lehigh having the same kind of athletes that Loyola has, so I guess what I'm saying is that my bet is that the press might give us some trouble, but it will not be the key to the game. The key is what team successfully shuts down CJ or Mike. That's it.
Ryan Hill has shown good improvement as his confidence builds as a starter...and in turn that makes Kaspar in a sub role ore effective. And Cohen can stop McCollum and hold him below his average.
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baudolino
Masters Student
Posts: 552
Loc: The bubble
Reg: 10-24-07
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01-16-12 11:05 PM - Post#117373
In response to Bison54
I'm not much of a buyer into the whole starter/sub game. To me, the relevant info is a) minutes played, and b) who's on the floor during critical moments. Props to coach Paulsen though for establishing a healthy rivalry that improves both players. At this point, Ryan's experience and being a better scoring threat trump Steve's better passing ability.
I hope Brian can contain CJ; it would certainly make our life easier. I will say this: if we keep it close in the first 20 minutes, I like our chances in the second half. We're usually better at making adjustments during the break.
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norcalfan
Junior
Posts: 255
Age: 54
Reg: 03-19-08
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BU OOC Opponents - how they've been doing
01-17-12 02:39 AM - Post#117377
In response to Bison137
Not sure how a team with an 85 RPI playing a team with a 115 RPI is an 11 point dog--even on the road. But I do agree that we go into this contest as a slight dog.
Interestingly, LU has scored 70+ in all 19 games. While their schedule overall has not been as strong as ours, most of their wins have been by more than 10 points. I am not sure what to make of the fact that they have only won one really close game, a very good road win at Wagner. Is their lack of close games an indication of how strong they are, or if this game is close, will we have the advantage?
Agree that 11 points is too much. Both Pomeroy and Sagarin have LU as a 7-point favorite - half of which is the home court advantage. That sounds about right.
As for LU's scoring, there are a couple of factors. First, they are definitely a good offensive team - scoring 1.086 pts per possession as compared to BU's 1.067. (Average is 1.004.) But another factor in them scoring so much is their fast pace of play - averaging almost 70 possessions per game as compared to BU's 63.5 ppg. This difference in pace of play would add 7 points to LU's average score, even if their offense was identical to BU's.
Hard to say what their record in close games means - but they have had only three that were real close in the final 90 seconds: (1) the 1-point win at Wagner where D'Orazio hit a three at the buzzer; (2) an OT loss at Cornell; and (3) the St. John's loss, where LU blew a large lead. Losing a close game at St. John's might seem like a good outcome for LU - but don't forget St John's is very inexperienced this year and has no depth. Currently every team BU has lost to this year is stronger than St. John's, as are Princeton and Richmond.
I think the game may well be decided by PG play. LU has an experienced soph PG, Mackey McKnight, who is a good player - plus they have a solid frosh PG in Corey Schaefer. If BU's duo of Hill/Kaspar can play fairly equally with LU's PG's, then I think the Bison have a good shot to win it.
BTW, given the BU inexperience at PG, I would not be at all surprised if LU tries the trapping defense that broke the game open two years ago in Bethlehem - where they trapped almost every time a Bison tried to dribble around a ball screen. That stretch of the game was painful to watch, as BU seemed completely unprepared for it. Looking back, BU had 11 turnovers - 10 by guards/wings - in 16 minutes. Turned the ball over on 42% on their possessions over that time span. Then almost no turnovers in the second half - after it was too late.
Bison 137,
This one will not be as close as some think. It will be a good first half game for sure. Second half may get a little lopsided. I would love to see Andoh and Adams play in the next to last game against each other in their college careers. It could be 3 games depending on the PL playoffs.
Edited by norcalfan on 01-17-12 02:40 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
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01-17-12 07:44 AM - Post#117381
In response to norcalfan
Can't say I am expecting this game to get lopsided, although you never know. Fact is, nobody has blown out LU this year. LaSalle sure as hell blew us away, as for all intents and purposes did Vandy and Syracuse even though we fought back to make it look better in the last mentioned two games.
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mattie g
Masters Student
Posts: 440
Reg: 03-21-06
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01-17-12 09:38 AM - Post#117383
In response to bison63
Can't say I am expecting this game to get lopsided, although you never know. Fact is, nobody has blown out LU this year. LaSalle sure as hell blew us away, as for all intents and purposes did Vandy and Syracuse even though we fought back to make it look better in the last mentioned two games.
But, to be fair, Lehigh hasn't really played anyone other than Michigan State...maybe Wagner or Iowa State? There's really no comparison between the two schedules.
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bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
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01-17-12 12:37 PM - Post#117400
In response to mattie g
You are right, our schedule is much stronger. Looking at common opponents we beat CU by 3 at home and LU lost by 2 in OT at CU, We beat Colgate by 13 at home, LU beat them by 22 away. More or less a wash on that basis. Wagner is better than anybody we have beaten this year, so that was a good win, Wagner under the Hurley's is nobody's soft touch. I'd say that is LU's best win of the year. Other than that and the others you mentioned they've played a bunch of chumps. To their credit however they have dispatched their weaker foes quite handily, there do not appear to be any lapses on their part. I'd feel much better about the Bison if we had beaten either G Mason or Loyola. I will also feel real good about them if we win tomorrow.
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Bucknell73
Senior
Posts: 304
Reg: 10-09-07
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01-17-12 01:34 PM - Post#117411
In response to bison63
Wow. Syracuse is on a roll.
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BUFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1936
Reg: 01-24-06
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01-17-12 07:53 PM - Post#117461
In response to Bucknell73
When I was up at Syracuse for the game last month, I thought it was comical that the concession stands were selling "We're #1" t-shirts. It seemed odd to be celebrating being #1 five weeks into the season, especially when having the top ranking is not a new thing for Syracuse.
Now comes this gem...Syracuse is selling "20-0" t-shirts that list all of their wins to date. Although, can you blame them? Beating Colgate definitely deserves a t-shirt!
I can feel a second round NCAA Tournament crash and burn.
http://suathletics.syr.edu/splash.aspx?id=splash_5...
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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01-17-12 08:33 PM - Post#117462
In response to BUFan
Kind of like if Green Bay had sold "14-0" t-shirts a few weeks ago.
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Bison54
PhD Student
Posts: 1800
Reg: 11-18-09
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01-17-12 09:14 PM - Post#117464
In response to BUFan
Second round only because the first four games are the first round.
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