mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-01-18 04:06 PM - Post#245406
Dartmouth (+4.5) at Cornell
Yale (+6) at Princeton
Harvard (-1) at Columbia
Brown (+8.5) at Pennsylvania
Brown and Yale are pretty significant deviations from KenPom toward the road teams (2-3 pts).
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1871
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: 2/2 Lines 02-01-18 09:05 PM - Post#245448
In response to mrjames
Shadow -3.5 at Groundhog
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: 2/2 Lines 02-01-18 09:19 PM - Post#245453
In response to TigerFan
Shadow -3.5 at Groundhog
The shadow knows.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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Re: 2/2 Lines 02-02-18 12:35 AM - Post#245475
In response to mrjames
Yale-Princeton already up to 7.5, which makes more sense.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: 2/2 Lines 02-02-18 09:12 AM - Post#245485
In response to penn nation
Nailed it.
Shadow -3.5 at Groundhog
The shadow knows.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: 2/2 Lines 02-02-18 11:00 AM - Post#245510
In response to penn nation
Don't know that I totally grasp all the lines today.
Brown/Penn total of 145.5? Penn's *fast* games recently have all been due to ridiculous final two minute possession counts versus Cornell and Columbia due to free throws in those games. That's fine if you want to assume that again, but it doesn't mesh well with a 9.5-point spread. The two teams don't rebound the ball offensively all that much and Brown gets a ton of its points at the line which can add possessions, but that O/U and spread implies a 77-68 or 78-68 final, which seems like a LOT of points without end of game free throws. I think if you like the over, you have to like Brown covering.
Yale's moved a bit to +7.5. A team playing as well as Princeton has (No. 50) since the GW game in December, should be an 18.5-point favorite over Yale at home.
I don't know what to make of Harvard right now, but 138.5 seems like WAY too many points. Like most of that game, you're essentially proxying for taking the over on threes made.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12480
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-02-18 02:09 PM - Post#245588
In response to mrjames
Are we not surprised that the Harvard line is as low as it is?
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-02-18 02:16 PM - Post#245590
In response to Quakers03
I’ll be very surprised if Brown/Penn is in the 60’s for either team. I like the over a lot. I agree Brown covers.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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2/2 Lines 02-02-18 04:12 PM - Post#245615
In response to Quakers03
I just wouldn’t touch that line. Bryce still isn’t starting, and it’s unclear how much he’ll play. The offense is awful without him unless Seth goes bonkers. Columbia could shoot their way out of the Harvard defensive sleeper hold. At the same time, if Harvard matches Columbia’s three point shooting and Bryce plays 30 mins or so, that line is probably a little light.
Would touch any Harvard lines until they get set with their actual team.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12480
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-02-18 05:26 PM - Post#245630
In response to PennFan10
I’ll be very surprised if Brown/Penn is in the 60’s for either team. I like the over a lot. I agree Brown covers.
Line is now up to 147 so I think others agree with you.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-02-18 06:04 PM - Post#245637
In response to Quakers03
Yeah - I'm even seeing 148 now. To me, that doesn't seem like a conception of the game that favors Penn.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-02-18 10:57 PM - Post#245738
In response to mrjames
Played out as I thought it might, though I would not have been shock d if Penn lost. Brown has too much firepower but can’t play defense. In the end AJ with a huge defensive stop via block and Penn made the FT they needed to. Max playing big minutes with 4 fouls.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8141
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-03-18 01:51 PM - Post#245821
In response to PennFan10
Dogs went 4-4. I'm shocked! Bodes well for the Iggles.
Penn -6, PU -11.5, Harvard -3.5 Columbia -7.5 tonight. I don't think any of them cover. Aside from Harvard at 139, all the Unders look good as well.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8141
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-04-18 12:44 PM - Post#246042
In response to Streamers
Dogs went 3-4, Penn hits FTs at the end and covers.
Still shaking my head over the PU/Brown game. I bet PU has never ever gone Chessesteak and lost before. I wonder if this has ever happened in the entire league?
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-04-18 01:00 PM - Post#246048
In response to Streamers
Closest I found for Penn was a 105-97 home loss to Harvard in the '89-'90 season.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1169
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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02-04-18 02:37 PM - Post#246060
In response to penn nation
Does the Abner's cheesesteak promotion apply if we score 100 and lose?
Asking for a friend.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 559
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-04-18 02:51 PM - Post#246063
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
I do not believe there are any qualifications ... more beer sales after scoring 100 and winning or losing?
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2262
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-04-18 03:08 PM - Post#246069
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
Does the Abner's cheesesteak promotion apply if we score 100 and lose?
Asking for a friend.
That's just cruel
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-04-18 03:58 PM - Post#246081
In response to penn nation
Found one! Columbia lost at Harvard, 102-100, on 2/19/72.
Closest I found for Penn was a 105-97 home loss to Harvard in the '89-'90 season.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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02-04-18 04:22 PM - Post#246083
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Don't know if the results thus far prove much:
Penn (5-0): all at home, all by single digits, no key injuries throughout. Outperformed abysmal season FT shooting to win last two games - trend or good luck?
Princeton (3-2): playing the best of all Ivy squads over the past 60 days; about to host its 5th game out of 6 with a chance to avenge the loss to Penn;
Harvard (5-1): looking good considering the Crimson have played 5 of 6 on the road, for the most part without Aiken and Baker; Aiken likely out for the foreseeable future, putting enormous pressure on Juzang and Haskett; Harvard fortunate that good start will allow for Bryce to rest and recover;
Brown (3-3): really impressive offense; had they made free throws at Penn would have swept P's on the road; playing this Brown team is scary; can one win the league with weak defense? More likely the tournament.
Columbia (3-3): already played at P's; looked good against Harvard but almost lost to Dartmouth at home;
Yale (2-4): no Mason sighting yet; finished with the trip to the P's;
Cornell (2-4): two man show, but those two (Morgan and Gettings) sure can score;
Dartmouth (0-6): gutsy and resilient, even without Chris Knight this past weekend; oh where they could be with a full roster
Coming Up:
Penn at Princeton: not my rivalry, but doubt Penn will need to score 95 or Princeton 100+ to win this game. Back to Ivy ball
P's at Harvard/Dartmouth: Harvard seems to have given itself the breathing room it needs regardless of what happens this coming weekend; would be huge if Crimson can split or sweep at home though. Can Dartmouth slow the P's march to the tournament? Unlikely.
C's at Yale/Brown: Big games for the 4th spot. Does Mason return? Brown's momentum could lift it to 5-3 which would be huge. Columbia wins at Yale/Brown would make a statement.
Buckle your seatbelts.
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