penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21286
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-24-23 02:07 PM - Post#352412
The latest take:
https://lbenz730.shinyapps.io/recspecs_basketball_...
He puts Cornell's current chances at making the ILT at 56%. He has Harvard as a 1.3 point favorite over Princeton, with the remainder of the matchups at or above 9 points (Penn, Yale, Brown).
Edited by penn nation on 02-24-23 02:11 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1173
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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02-24-23 05:49 PM - Post#352450
In response to penn nation
Wow. Cornell a nine point dog at home? I know Yale's been playing well, but seems generous.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21286
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-24-23 06:08 PM - Post#352451
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
Wow. Cornell a nine point dog at home? I know Yale's been playing well, but seems generous.
Cornell is playing in New Haven.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1892
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Saturday games 2/25
02-24-23 09:38 PM - Post#352462
In response to penn nation
For what it’s worth, Luke Benz is currently alone in 13th place (out of 13 competitors) in Ivy Hoops Online’s annual pick ‘em contest. Call me old school but I’ll go with hunches over the computer every time.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32884
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Saturday games 2/25
02-24-23 09:56 PM - Post#352463
In response to TigerFan
He did have Penn for 7th place...and told me he personally did not understand it, but that's how the program showed it
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32884
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Saturday games 2/25
02-24-23 11:51 PM - Post#352465
In response to palestra38
Draft Kings Points Spreads are up
HARVARD PK princeton
brown -8.5 COLUMBIA
PENN -10 dartmouth
YALE -7.5 cornell
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8322
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-25-23 01:06 AM - Post#352467
In response to palestra38
I think PU will handle Harvard.
The other lines look about right to me but I would hesitate to lay those big numbers in conference games.
I am a lot more confident taking Penn over 144 and PU under 140
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3781
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-25-23 08:55 AM - Post#352474
In response to Streamers
Bear in mind that Mr. Benz went to Yale. Nobody is truly objective (although stats guys love to believe that they are). Whether consciously or unconsciously, he might be putting his thumb on the scale.
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Charlie Fog
Masters Student
Posts: 587
Age: 55
Loc: Philly
Reg: 11-12-13
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Re: Saturday games 2/25
02-25-23 09:32 AM - Post#352479
In response to palestra38
wow yale -7.5 jumps out at me. I guess knowling is playing.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32884
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Saturday games 2/25
02-25-23 10:21 AM - Post#352481
In response to Charlie Fog
Game is at Yale, Yale needs to win and Cornell has been playing poorly. I think the line is correct even if it is unknown whether or how well he can play.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-25-23 10:49 AM - Post#352483
In response to Silver Maple
It would be extremely difficult to unconsciously weight a statistical model in favor of a certain team. Yale -9 is also the line KenPom has, and to my knowledge, Mr. Pomeroy has no connection to Yale.
In Luke's defense, one of the hardest things to do when building an all-in-one model is figuring out what ranking to start teams off with before they've played a single game. I'm not entirely sure how Penn ended up in 7th preseason in his model either, but I'm sure it wasn't some sort of massive anti-Penn conspiracy. (Fwiw, KenPom's model ranked Yale 146 to open the 19-20 season and they ended up 58th. Sometimes those opening rankings are just wrong.)
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 440
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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02-25-23 11:02 AM - Post#352484
In response to iogyhufi
We had a hard time with Harvard at Jadwin.
Need a strong game from Tosan and some bench
contributions. If Austin is done for the year,
finding bench energy is a priority.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8322
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Saturday games 2/25
02-25-23 11:14 AM - Post#352487
In response to Charlie Fog
wow yale -7.5 jumps out at me. I guess Knowling is playing.
How about a side bet on Knowling playing? I'll give 2-1.
it would be more like 9 if he were healthy.
Penn is now 10.5
PU is now +1 and Yale is now -7.
Hard core bettors might grab Yale here in the hope the P's win which might take Yale up to -8 or 9.
(lines courtesy of Draft Kings)
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32884
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-25-23 11:15 AM - Post#352489
In response to iogyhufi
I don't think he had any personal bias. He told me that his results surprised him, and that he thought Penn would move up during the season. Still, I wonder what metric put Penn so far down in his program compared with just about everyone else.
Anyway, huge day in the Ivies today.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-25-23 02:39 PM - Post#352492
In response to palestra38
Yes, was very weird. How does a team graduate one rotation player and somehow go significantly backwards?
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Saturday games 2/25
02-25-23 08:31 PM - Post#352546
In response to Charlie Fog
wow yale -7.5 jumps out at me. I guess knowling is playing.
No Knowling, and also missing the freshman Wolf from the frontcourt rotation, who drew minutes in Knowling’s absence last weekend. JaJo resorted to using the Ghanaian kid Basa-Ama for a couple of sub minutes early in the 1st, and he hasn’t played since December 22nd because of his own injury issues.
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