Kit
Senior
Posts: 380
Loc: Central Massachusetts
Reg: 11-29-04
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09-14-12 12:16 PM - Post#132405
With the removal of the Harvard co-captains Curry and Casey, Princeton become the favorite to win the league crown. (As if they weren't already favored being led by Ian Hummer.)
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-14-12 03:30 PM - Post#132427
In response to Kit
Well, I predicted them to win the minute that last season ended. Even before this, Princeton had the best returning players.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2814
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-14-12 07:19 PM - Post#132439
In response to palestra38
Predictions at this point are worth, at best, what you pay for them. Much as I'd like to believe that Princeton has the edge this season, both Penn and Harvard (even without their two recent losses) are loaded with young talent. There is a lot time between now and the upcoming league. The only thing that is reasonably safe to say at this point is that Ian Hummer is the odds on favorite for POY,
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3666
Reg: 02-06-10
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Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-15-12 08:31 PM - Post#132469
In response to Tiger69
I haven't read a single article naming Princeton the clear favorite. Our very own Ivy Hoops Online merely tweets that they're "probably out in front." And that's more than any other reporter/blogger is predicting.
Not that I'm complaining. I'm sure the players and coaches all prefer less media hype.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2814
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-15-12 11:09 PM - Post#132473
In response to gokinsmen
One irony of the Harvard mess is that their bench, so overloaded with talent, will get more PT. I have always thought that one risk Amaker ran with his oversized recruiting classes was having too much talent with so many players on the bench who might otherwise start or get significant PT at other Ivies. After Harvard recovers from its unexpected losses, morale could solidify among the remaining players as they get more opportunity to demonstrate their talents. This is still a team deeper in potential than any of its rivals. By contrast, Princeton has had three consecutive below average recruiting classes. After its current seniors graduate, Princeton will probably need at least a couple of years to return to serious title contention.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-16-12 10:01 AM - Post#132479
In response to Tiger69
So who are these hidden Harvard gems? Here are the non-freshmen players who have yet to see significant playing time:
Alex Nesbitt (So-G), Matt Brown (Jr-G), Max Hooper (So-G), Dee Giger (Sr-G), Jonah Travis (So-F), Jeff Georgatos (Sr-F), Kenyatta Smith (So-C), Tom Hamel (Jr-F), and Ugo Okam (Jr-C). Only Travis has exhibited any ability to contribute. Of the remaining, perhaps Smith could be useful, but his limitation has always been his ability to play against taller D1 opponents. It remains to be seen if he has solved this issue. Further, we still don’t know the identity of the “third†seldom used player who will likely be out for the year.
Without Casey and Curry, Harvard’s core will be Rivard, Saunders, and Moundou-Missi. Most likely, Harvard will need Webster and Travis for major minutes, as well as an immediate need for its freshmen to contribute, especially Siyani Chambers and probably Cummins and/or Okolie.
As far as the future is concerned, there is no guarantee that Casey and Curry will come back, or that their touted freshmen will pan out. I see this as a major setback for Harvard BB.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2814
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-16-12 11:35 AM - Post#132481
In response to Condor
You answered your own question. I only said that they had talent on the bench, not that it was proven or experienced. We've been hearing about all these great Harvard recruits now for the past four years. But, until last year Amaker rarely gave minutes to any but a few. Now we shall have a chance to see if some of the others can live up to their high billings.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-16-12 11:56 AM - Post#132483
In response to Tiger69
Ok. I just see it differently. Other than K. Smith, most of the other guys were below average to slightly above average Ivy recruits who probably would not start for the other Ivy’s. As for Smith, he was a typical *** recruit, intriguing, but hardly a sure thing. I think they will need their new guys to ramp up quickly.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2203
Reg: 10-09-09
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09-16-12 12:18 PM - Post#132484
In response to Condor
The New York Times reports that the third Harvard b'ball player is Matt Brown, who also plays football and was missing from yesterday's game against San Diego. Along with the absence of Casey and Curry, that would seem to leave Harvard with a lot of unproven talent.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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09-16-12 02:18 PM - Post#132486
In response to cc66
Two things--
Thing #1: Matt Brown barely played for Harvard last year. Was he expected to be a significant contributor this season?
Thing #2: People seem to be showing very little regard for Kenyatta Smith. Yes, he hardly contributed last season. However, he was a freshman, and players who later end up being BMOCs, particularly frontcourt players, frequently don't do a whole lot as 'shmen. I will point out that, by all accounts, the Penn coaches REALLY wanted Smith, and were very disappointed when he chose Harvard. Let's wait a little while longer before we pronounce him a bust.
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1345
Reg: 12-08-04
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09-16-12 08:01 PM - Post#132501
In response to Silver Maple
The LAST thing I want to read about is Tigers being favored. All that does is encourage players to let up and fans to think they should start planning for the NCAAs.
Preseason predictions mean so little. If you want to talk about Harvard's difficulty in replacing players, I'm fine with that.
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Howard Gensler
Postdoc
Posts: 4141
Reg: 11-21-04
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09-16-12 08:30 PM - Post#132503
In response to sparman
Harvard is still going to have plenty of talent and has many forwards and wings to vie for Casey's minutes. Where they're going to be in trouble is at the point, where Chambers is going to have to be an impact player immediately instead of subbing for Curry for a year. I'm not even sure who else Harvard has to handle the ball. Brown is a loss because they could have used him to defend the point as he did a bit his freshman year. The loss of Curry for a year is also a great break for Columbia's Brian Barbour - now inarguably the League's top returning PG.
The loss of Casey is big, but in my mind the loss of Curry is HUGE.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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09-16-12 10:51 PM - Post#132509
In response to Howard Gensler
Anyone who doesn't think that Princeton is at least a 2 game favorite is either a Princeton fan who just doesn't want to be in the position of acknowledging that they have the best team so they can tout the magic of the "System" or is an opposing fan in denial.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-16-12 11:21 PM - Post#132510
In response to palestra38
I agree that Princeton must be considered a clear favorite this season. I also agree that after this season, when they graduate Hummer and some other valuable seniors, they could find themselves at a significant talent disadvantage. The 'system' is going to be tested [irony].
As for the loss of Curry, yes it's huge, because it exposes Harvard's lack of depth at guard. I've also noticed that their last few recruiting classes have been quite forward-heavy, suggesting that Harvard may be headed to a situation in coming seasons in which they have the deepest and most talented frontcourt in the conference, but get victimized by deeper and more talented backcourts.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3666
Reg: 02-06-10
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Re: Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-17-12 02:37 AM - Post#132511
In response to Silver Maple
Life After Hummer does indeed scare me. That said, you never know who breaks out between now and '13-'14. Bray stepped it up last year and Maddox the year before. Chris Clement had a great Spain trip and Will Barrett's redshirt injury last year might be a blessing in disguise.
Also, we shouldn't just assume that Casey and Curry will both be back. Max Kenyi had "every intention of returning" as well. Maybe one or both guys want a fresh start at another D-I program with high quality academics and hoops -- e.g. Vanderbilt, Davidson or NW.
As for Harvard's lack of PGs, I wonder if there's any chance Christian Webster plays some point if Siyani Chambers struggles. Maybe this could be his way back to the starting rotation...
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-17-12 09:02 AM - Post#132512
In response to gokinsmen
Do you really think any of those schools would bring in a player who has an academic integrity issue? I doubt it---too much of a PR hit. I am sure that there are non-academic schools willing to overlook it, but with 1 year of eligibility, not too many.
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Howard Gensler
Postdoc
Posts: 4141
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-17-12 09:20 AM - Post#132514
In response to gokinsmen
As for Harvard's lack of PGs, I wonder if there's any chance Christian Webster plays some point if Siyani Chambers struggles. Maybe this could be his way back to the starting rotation...
Unless Webster has completely changed his skill set since I saw him play in prep school, he is not a PG. Does anyone know if Corbin Miller is taking his mission this year? Maybe he could play a little of shoot-first, pass-second PG? But his handle seemed a little suspect to me last year - he really was just a shooter.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-17-12 10:01 AM - Post#132516
In response to Howard Gensler
Corbin Miller will not be returning to Cambridge until the 2014-15 season.
Christian Webster will not be the backup point guard.
And as for preseason predictions. I had Harvard winning the Ivies about 2/3rds of the time prior to the withdrawals, and now I have Princeton winning just shy of 80% of the time (more counting shares of the title). I also have the Tigers as a hair above a two-game favorite (they were about a six or seven-tenths of a game underdog before).
Harvard returns just 38% of possessions from last year. Only 8 Ivy teams since 1997 have returned fewer, and the average Pomeroy drop for those teams was .247 Pythag points. One of those eight teams, and a potentially interesting comp, would be 2003-2004 Penn, which only returned 36% of team possessions, but only lost .072 Pythag points and finished second to Princeton.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-17-12 10:03 AM - Post#132517
In response to gokinsmen
Also, we shouldn't just assume that Casey and Curry will both be back. Max Kenyi had "every intention of returning" as well. Maybe one or both guys want a fresh start at another D-I program with high quality academics and hoops -- e.g. Vanderbilt, Davidson or NW.
More likely, I think they might go to Europe and play pro ball.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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Tigers are Ivy favorite
09-17-12 10:10 AM - Post#132518
In response to Silver Maple
Thing #2: People seem to be showing very little regard for Kenyatta Smith. Yes, he hardly contributed last season. However, he was a freshman, and players who later end up being BMOCs, particularly frontcourt players, frequently don't do a whole lot as 'shmen. I will point out that, by all accounts, the Penn coaches REALLY wanted Smith, and were very disappointed when he chose Harvard. Let's wait a little while longer before we pronounce him a bust.
I would not argue against the possibility that K. Smith will still be productive. However, I would note that SMM was also a Freshman last year, and he was given all the backup minutes. While that doesn't necessarily mean that Smith will be a bust, it does give some weight to the scouting concerns, no pun intended.
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