internetter
Postdoc
Posts: 3399
Loc: Los Angeles
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-04-18 07:08 PM - Post#246111
http://ivyhoopsonline.com/2018/02/04/ivy-weeken d-r...
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2163
Reg: 02-14-06
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02-05-18 02:00 AM - Post#246163
In response to internetter
A+ grade to Mike Tony for his fabulous write-up in Ivy Hoops Online.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2201
Reg: 10-09-09
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02-05-18 02:17 PM - Post#246226
In response to Columbia 37P6
It is a fair review, with the one major proviso that all such reviews have, i.e., that no one knows to what extent the rest of the season reflects current vs. past performance. As just one example, Columbia now has four players who are averaging 10 or more ppg--Smith, Adlesh, Meisner, and Castlin. Of course, some of our defensive issues remain, in particular, the much referenced trade-off between Smith and Adlesh's offensive strengths and defensive liabilities as short guards. But other signs such as Tape now averaging 3 OR per IL contest, and perhaps more informally, the eyeball test suggesting a greater intensity, point to a better defense going forward.
KP gives us just a mid-30ish% chance of defeating both Yale and Brown away this weekend. Earlier this season, Columbia without Castlin could not beat Yale and Brown. With him and the other improvements, we might be able to.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32680
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-05-18 02:22 PM - Post#246227
In response to cc66
Are you sure that isn't mid 30s for EACH game? I would be surprised if Columbia has a mid 30s shot to sweep
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2958
Reg: 03-02-08
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02-05-18 02:29 PM - Post#246229
In response to palestra38
I don’t think enough attention has been paid to the recent improvement in Meisner’s game. He had two excellent games this weekend on both ends of the court. He is much more aggressive in driving to the hoop, has a legitimate three point shot, has been rebounding at a high level, and is playing excellent defense.
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Columbia Alum
Junior
Posts: 247
Age: 38
Reg: 11-15-11
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02-05-18 02:31 PM - Post#246230
In response to palestra38
~30 for each game = ~10% chance of sweep, i think our chances are little better than that, but will be a tough weekend and at least one win is important to getting top 4.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2201
Reg: 10-09-09
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02-05-18 02:50 PM - Post#246234
In response to palestra38
Yes, of course, it's imprecisely worded--I meant a mid-30ish% for each game.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-05-18 02:56 PM - Post#246236
In response to Columbia Alum
Conditional final odds for each rank based on this weekend's outcome:
Short answer (and probably not surprising) is that a sweep would put you in the driver's seat for the 4th spot, a split would marginally increase your chances and getting swept would be a real problem.
Columbia Sweeps (9.7% of sims):
1st = 1.8%
2nd = 9.2%
3rd = 20.8%
4th = 40.8%
5th = 19.7%
6th = 7.0%
7th = 0.6%
Columbia Splits (42.9% of sims):
1st = 0.5%
2nd = 2.6%
3rd = 10.1%
4th = 28.3%
5th = 30.9%
6th = 22.6%
7th = 4.5%
8th = 0.5%
Columbia Gets Swept (47.4% of sims):
2nd = 0.5%
3rd = 2.7%
4th = 11.5%
5th = 23.8%
6th = 42.3%
7th = 15.7%
8th = 3.3%
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