HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-04-19 06:54 PM - Post#279378
Heading into the final weekend, there is a lot of focus on the battle for 4th place, possibly at the expense of the battle for first place. Looking at this weekend from the top down you have Harvard in a tie with Yale, with Princeton a game behind.
Harvard (9-3): wins all tie-breakers with Yale and/or Princeton, having swept both. The Crimson control their destiny, facing Cornell and then Columbia on the road. These will be tough games as Cornell is fighting for its life and red hot Columbia is always a tough road trip for the Crimson. Further complicating things for Harvard are injuries (Bassey, Towns, and others) and a desire to be healthy for the tournament.
Yale (9-3): visits Penn and then Princeton. Big game for Penn (5-7), but not necessarily live or die. If on Friday Princeton loses or Harvard wins, then Saturday is meaningless for the Tigers. Thus, although Yale is on the road in two historically difficult venues, Yale could - and likely needs to - sweep the P's to enable it to move the requisite game ahead of the Crimson.
Princeton (8-4): hosts Brown Friday and Yale Saturday. Brown is playing for its life, although a loss may not be fatal as it faces off with Penn on Saturday (Cornell notwithstanding). Princeton has to beat Brown and hope that Harvard and Yale both lose Friday to retain any hope of first place. If that occurs, on Saturday Princeton would need to beat Yale and hope that Harvard loses to Columbia. Harvard/Yale are a combined 16-4 against the rest of the league. The odds of them going 0-4 this weekend is slim.
Of course, this is relevant only if one ignores the tournament or simply cares about the top seeding and thus an NIT autobid.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 03-04-19 07:14 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-04-19 08:30 PM - Post#279381
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Will Senior Night have an impact? Last weekend:
Harvard took a 6-3 lead over Princeton (5 mins) despite starting 5 seniors, none of whom usually even play: Balsa Dragovich, Weisner Perez, Tommy McCarthy, Robbie Feinberg and Corey Johnson
Yale fell behind 12-0 to Columbia (3 mins) starting Thomas Ryan
Brown fell behind Cornell 10-5 (4 mins) starting Travis Fuller, Brian Sullivan, and Obie Okolie
Dartmouth started Guilen Smith until tied 7-7 (4.5 minutes).
So, who does Penn start vs Brown on Saturday evening? Woods, Rothschild and Silpe are no brainers. How about Collin McManus and Jackson Donahue?
Princeton's game Saturday may not be consequential, but Stephens is a starter. What about Bramlage and Brabari?
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-04-19 08:30 PM - Post#279382
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Will Senior Night have an impact? Last weekend:
Harvard took a 6-3 lead over Princeton (5 mins) despite starting 5 seniors, none of whom usually even play: Balsa Dragovich, Weisner Perez, Tommy McCarthy, Robbie Feinberg and Corey Johnson
Yale fell behind 12-0 to Columbia (3 mins) starting Thomas Ryan
Brown fell behind Cornell 10-5 (4 mins) starting Travis Fuller, Brian Sullivan, and Obie Okolie
Dartmouth started Guilen Smith until tied 7-7 (4.5 minutes).
So, who does Penn start vs Brown on Saturday evening? Woods, Rothschild and Silpe are no brainers. How about Collin McManus and Jackson Donahue?
Princeton's game Saturday may not be consequential, but Stephens is a starter. What about Bramlage and Brabari?
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3992
Reg: 11-23-04
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Ivy League Season Champion
03-04-19 08:51 PM - Post#279384
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
It's Chris Sullivan.
Edited by Old Bear on 03-04-19 08:52 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Re: Ivy League Season Champion
03-04-19 08:57 PM - Post#279386
In response to Old Bear
Thank you. I'll need to watch more games!
Senior night is a great thing. Parents so proud and guys getting a chance to play.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1885
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-04-19 11:34 PM - Post#279406
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I believe Princeton is the only school that could still theoretically finish in any of the first four places. They avoid playing the first game of the ILT against Yale on the Yalies home court by sneaking in and grabbing the top seed if they win both games this weekend and Harvard drops both of its games (unlikely) or by losing both games and dropping to the 4th seed behind Brown if Yale doesn’t beat out Harvard for the top seed. I think the most important thing for the Tigers is to play two good games and gain some momentum.
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Bruno
PhD Student
Posts: 1419
Loc: Brooklyn, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-04-19 11:42 PM - Post#279407
In response to TigerFan
Yale at home in their first as tournament host is a tough draw. But they have lost two of their last three there.
| LET'S go BRU-no (duh. nuh. nuh-nuh-nuh) |
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-05-19 12:38 AM - Post#279412
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
McManus is sitting out the year and will graduate and play his last year elsewhere as a grad transfer. So he won’t start.
I suspect with the season on the line, you may not see Penn or Cornell do anything unusual on senior night.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-05-19 08:54 AM - Post#279422
In response to SomeGuy
I think we'll see Antonio, Jake, Jackson and Max all start on Saturday with AJ. All our active seniors will start.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Ivy League Season Champion
03-05-19 09:24 AM - Post#279423
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Although there are only two regular season games to go plus IvyMadness, the league as a group did improve this year. Although injuries were certainly a factor, no team will crack the top 75 at the end of the day. Yale, the one good team, with virtually no injuries is #87-- KenPom.
The league is still looking for one breakout team/season which will generate a tremendous amount of public relations far more than what IvyMadness can provide or even a two bid season.
If Harvard had Towns and Aiken all year, there was a realistic possibility that they would have finished somewhere between 50-75 but you never know and injuries are simply part of the landscape for any IL or other league team.
If everyone is on board next year and they play a challenging schedule, can Harvard land somewhere between #35-50, perhaps although I think that there are questions surrounding their big men as Lewis and Baker are good but not great. Also, the performance of the other IL teams in non-conference play will certainly be a factor.
If Harvard goes on a great run, the basketball world will notice. Will they be great or very very good -- not sure but it is really tough to play with the Big Boys. They have one last chance with the Big Three. It says alot about Amaker that they may win this year although they certainly had some good fortune (luck) in several games.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy League Season Champion
03-05-19 09:57 AM - Post#279424
In response to bradley
Kinda humorous that this is the year the NCAA decided to move to the NET. Harvard right now is 48 in RPI with a 2-3 Q1 record and 3-3 Q2 record. With another Q2 and Q1 game upcoming in the Ivy Tourney, could have been looking at a 10 or 11 seed. Now, Yale’s probably our best hope for even the 13 line with everyone else looking at a 14 without some conf tourney carnage.
Womp womp.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Ivy League Season Champion
03-05-19 10:41 AM - Post#279425
In response to mrjames
I did see where Lunardi just moved Yale to #14 vs. #13. It would seem that Harvard would probably be a #14 vs. #13 if they win out but alot of it depends on the fate of some of the teams in front of them.
Princeton would probably be a #15 along with Penn and possibly Brown (15 or 16) with Cornell being a #16 seed.
Hopefully, Harvard or some IL team can get get to a #10 or #11 -- Harvard certainly appears to have the best opportunity for next year.
ESPN and others would give Harvard and IL a considerable amoung of coverage next year if this happens as everyone loves David beating a Goliath. The Tigers almost did that against Georgetown/Mourning which needless to say generated incredible PR for the Ivies as witnessed by the ESPN 30/30 story
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy League Season Champion
03-05-19 12:18 PM - Post#279438
In response to bradley
Depending on how things shake out, Harvard might be more likely to be on a higher seed line than Yale as the Ivy rep, because it already has the better Q1/Q2 profile and would have to win neutral/road games to win the Ivy title vs home games. Because of the stupid cut lines though, there’s a lot riding on Yale getting back into the Top 75 for Harvard (extra Q1 win). For Yale, it needs Miami to stay Top 100 and to win at Penn (without Penn dropping out of the 135) to get 2 Q2 wins.
Penn has a better profile than Princeton, still. Penn would likely be a 14 if it made it. Princeton, Brown or Cornell would all be looking at 15/16s.
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1145
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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Re: Ivy League Season Champion
03-05-19 12:34 PM - Post#279441
In response to mrjames
Princeton, Brown or Cornell would all be looking at 15/16s.
Would any of them go to Dayton?
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Naismith
Sophomore
Posts: 149
Loc: RI
Reg: 11-11-18
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Re: Ivy League Season Champion
03-05-19 01:34 PM - Post#279447
In response to Go Green
Hope not. That would be the ultimate embarrassment to a league that believes it's on the rise. Yet it's possible when you have one bid and you decide to let the worst of your best have a second chance to wipe away a mediocre record made over 4 months.
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1145
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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Re: Ivy League Season Champion
03-05-19 01:41 PM - Post#279448
In response to Naismith
Hope not. That would be the ultimate embarrassment to a league that believes it's on the rise.
I'm actually hoping it happens so you all can realize that it's really no big deal, that the sun will rise the next day, and that nobody will remember it the following season.
I mean... our rep was a #16 seed last season.
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Naismith
Sophomore
Posts: 149
Loc: RI
Reg: 11-11-18
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Re: Ivy League Season Champion
03-05-19 04:43 PM - Post#279475
In response to Go Green
Huh?
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1145
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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Re: Ivy League Season Champion
03-05-19 05:01 PM - Post#279479
In response to Naismith
Huh?
I always prided myself on being clear in my writing. But I'm always happy to improve if people don't get my point. Will try again.
People who think that going to Dayton is the "ultimate embarrassment" for a league are just wrong. I'm confident that the public understands that if there is an upset in the confernce tournament (and it happens) and the winner gets sent to Dayton, it doesn't mean that you have a weak conference.
If Penn/Brown/Cornell defies the odds and gets sent to Dayton, the Ivy will be fine. Who knows? Maybe they even win a game and bring a nice fat check to the league office.
Next year is an entirely different year. Nobody is talking about giving UVA a lower seed because they were on the wrong end of a historic upset last year. Nobody will penalize the Ivy next season if our rep goes to Dayton. If a full strength Harvard plays to its potential in 2019-20, they will get top-25 votes.
Happy to elaborate more if you wish...
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-05-19 05:09 PM - Post#279482
In response to Go Green
I'd like to share a different concern.
Our final is held very late in the process, ending Sunday around 2:30pm. Penn didn't deserve to be a 16 seed. I believe I heard a theory that because the committee is too focused elsewhere that they don't really want to change much for our late benefit and thus slapped our rep in the 16th seeding, regardless.
Anyone think this is a real risk?
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mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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03-05-19 05:18 PM - Post#279484
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
It very well could be a risk, but I don't think that's why Penn got a 16 (and Harvard likely would have too last year). The simple story is that Penn didn't have any Quad 1 or 2 wins last year, and Harvard only would have had one — the Ivy final — if it had won the tourney.
Since the committee is mostly just counting those wins when it comes to 13 to 16 seeds, we would have been stuck with a 16 no matter when we decided things. That's why, despite a decent Kenpom rating, Penn got such a tough draw.
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