UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1122
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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10-13-19 09:26 PM - Post#288545
2019-2020 will be a watershed year for the Donahue rebuild with regard to its recruiting. All four years of his recruiting have produced at least one 3-star, the kind of player who usually excels in the Ivies. We also have two examples of 2-star players making the jump to stardom, both from that first year, Betley and Goodman. Mike James has pointed out that such upgrades are as important a part of Ivy recruiting as the 3-stars. So we know that, at least for one year, Steve can succeed at the talent game. That first year it was Brodeur, a player who justified his 3-star ranking from the very beginning of his college career. What made the year special has been the blossoming of two 2-star recruits into second-team all-Ivy status, Ryan and Devon. They are all seniors now, forming the nucleus of what should be a peak-of-cycle team. Were it not for the extraordinary talent in Cambridge, Penn would be the Ivy Favorite.
What makes 2020 an important year for the future of the program is the need for the follow-on classes to produce. We have three years of data with decidedly mixed reviews. From the 2017 class Jarrod Simmons the 3-star and Eddie Scott a 2.5-star have shown a flash or two, but nothing like the sustained quality Penn needs. Of course, Jelani W, a 2-star with considerable upgrading potential is recovering from his third ACL tear. Both Scott and Simmons have the frames to play Division I ball, but they will have to make a considerable advance to make their recruiting class a success.
The next class looked last November to be a big winner with two freshmen starters on a team that defeated the reigning national champions, Villanova. For a short while Wang looked like a potential superstar and Bryce managed two thirds of a season in which he topped 40% from three. Either the injury bug temporarily sidetracked both players or the carriage turned into a pumpkin under the realities of college ball. More than anything else this year, I will be watching the play of those two. Either we have the nucleus of another contender or the departure of this year’s seniors will leave a sophomore-led team. Wang’s play over the summer has not been an encouraging sign.
Finally, we have the current class of newcomers highlighted by a 3-star big man and three or four 2-star recruits with upside potential. We will know relatively quickly about the 3-star because the front court talent is quite thin after Brodeur with plenty of opportunity for the new ‘Max’ to step in for the old Max. Even if Jarrod takes a step forward, a rotation of three big men is probable, especially if Max can protect the rim. In the backcourt the loss of 42% of the minutes at three position should leave plenty of room for replacements. While Betley will get much of that, none of the incumbent juniors or sophs have shown the ability to step in. We could see a freshman starter, with another two getting meaningful time. By the holidays a quality 2019 recruiting class would be producing big time minutes. Keep in mind that the 2016 class already had a starring freshman starter in Brodeur and Betley starred from the moment he came off the injury list. That’s what good recruits do. Did not Wang and Washington excite us last fall?
So what do we have to hope for this season? The simple hope is that Ryan picks up where he left off two years ago. If he does that, Penn will win 20 or so and make Harvard work for its bid. The is the result of an excellent recruiting year. The more important hope is that we get significant contributions for at least two of the three undergraduate classes. If both hopes materialize Harvard will have to work very hard for its bid, a dip well below 100 in rank is possible for Penn. Most importantly, Steve needs to find the nucleus for next year’s team this year. To date we have only pre-injury flashes from two players on the bench to fuel our hopes for 2020 and beyond. Usually there would be a sprinkling of Juniors and Sophomores already identified.
Oh one more thing. We have five years of data watching the Donahue program at work. They can recruit, develop skills sets and have the players execute well together. If the crap shoot that is college recruiting rolls at least acceptable results, Penn will be competent, unlike what happened during the last administration. If five of the ten or so undergraduate talents turn out, the team will be more than competent. Moreover, there is no reason to expect the next several years of recruiting to have any less quality than the results seen so far. Steve has made the most of the process. I suppose I am saying that we will get the undergrad contributions I am hoping for. Steve is that good. We will know for sure by the start of the Ivies.
Edited by UPIA1968 on 10-13-19 09:31 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Talent looking forward
10-14-19 06:57 AM - Post#288547
In response to UPIA1968
Donahue has impressed me as much with his ability to develop players as in finding immediate contributors. I think Brodeur, Betley, Wang (if healthy), and Washington are all examples of players who transitioned well to the D1 game. However, players like Goodman, Woods, and Foreman really raised their games over the years. Finally, you have the resurrected players such as Caleb Wood and Jake Silpe. At this point, I wouldn’t give up on anyone on the roster.
For this year, I worry most about replacing Woods’ defense at guard and having a second facilitator at forward. Hopefully, it will be an entertaining year.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1903
Reg: 11-29-04
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10-14-19 07:26 PM - Post#288561
In response to Condor
I don't really know much about the Freshman, but it seems very possible that there are at least two good long term Penn starters in Lorca-Lloyd, Martz, Dingle, Charles, and Monroe. Right now I can't tell you which two I'd bet on - and that's a good thing. Any of them could provide reasonable replacement value for Brodeur and Betley. I'm not nearly as optimistic about our class of 2020.
BTW, I re-watched video of Lorca-Lloyd and he looks like a good one. If he can build some strength and learn to be as aggressive and active as Brodeur, he could be great. I'd like to see more of a mean streak than I saw in the video.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2144
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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10-14-19 08:15 PM - Post#288562
In response to Penndemonium
I don't really know much about the Freshman, but it seems very possible that there are at least two good long term Penn starters in Lorca-Lloyd, Martz, Dingle, Charles, and Monroe. Right now I can't tell you which two I'd bet on - and that's a good thing. Any of them could provide reasonable replacement value for Brodeur and Betley. I'm not nearly as optimistic about our class of 2020.
BTW, I re-watched video of Lorca-Lloyd and he looks like a good one. If he can build some strength and learn to be as aggressive and active as Brodeur, he could be great. I'd like to see more of a mean streak than I saw in the video.
Speaking of mean streaks, I've said this pretty consistently, but Jarrod Simmons is another player who needs to develop that attribute defensively.
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