Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-03-20 12:27 PM - Post#302816
This is the first year I won't pay a single dollar to Penn's basketball team. I've been feeling a little bit removed from the whole process of college basketball and the fact that we seem to put a lot of effort into a team that is around the 150th best team in the nation. Oh, and the fact that my kids are getting to be near the age of these kids and criticizing them gets less and less appropriate. Oh and Penn treats season ticket holders like mushrooms by feeding you...
Anyway, so, like, fine. We're going to make the tournament. And because we are a higher variance team, anything could happen. Which is kind of cool. I guess. But one of the points many of us raised at his hiring is that Steve's competence would assure us no KenPom 200 seasons but a lot of KenPom 150 seasons. I feel we deserve better, but my rejection of the comforting lukewarm embrace of mediocrity is not shared by the majority of fans. Ok. fine.
Which leads me to this: I FREAKING HATE that Steve messes around so much with the starting lineup in the latter part of the year. He messed up Bryce. He (or injuries) messed up Mike. He's done it with Eddie. He's doing it with Jordan. It's not ok. Stop "playing matchups" or "rewarding practice". We now can not bank on anyone next year.
I've been holding off on posting this for the better part of a month and it's not nearly as coherent as I'd like it to be but let's not let perfect be the enemy of the good take.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32845
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: This One Thing Drives Me up a Wall
03-03-20 12:40 PM - Post#302818
In response to Jeff2sf
I'm not sure I agree with you on next year's team--it's going to be a very different team with Lorca-Lloyd in the middle (God forbid that Simmons is a starting center) with the combination of Dingle, Monroe and Charles running along side of him. If Wang is healthy, we'll be pretty good and possibly better than that.
But is there a recruiting ceiling for Steve? We'll learn that in the next couple of classes--it's not an unreasonable suggestion.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-03-20 12:42 PM - Post#302820
In response to palestra38
I have 0 idea if MLL is better than Jarrod. I will totally defer to you on that.
But the evidence points to Steve not believing that. anyway, this isn't about next year. This is about Steve messing with the starting lineup. let's talk about that here.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3588
Reg: 02-15-15
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03-03-20 12:51 PM - Post#302823
In response to Jeff2sf
I agree, I have never liked the starting lineup shuffle. You can insert role players as subs based on matchups, but let your guys be your guys.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32845
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-20 01:10 PM - Post#302829
In response to PennFan10
Don't you think injury has been the reason for this? He didn't do this 2 years ago at all and only did it last year when Washington and Wang got hurt. This year, with 3 freshman being forced into major service, it simply was a different situation.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3588
Reg: 02-15-15
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03-03-20 01:33 PM - Post#302833
In response to palestra38
sometimes that's the reason, but often it is not. Going back a few years he would shuffle Matt McDonald in/out of starting lineup, last year he did it with MaxR, Jackson, Jake, Mike (when healthy). This year he has done it with Ray, Lucas, MaxM, Jarrod...all of whom have starts followed no start with no injury related.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-20 01:47 PM - Post#302836
In response to PennFan10
What’s the analytics-based argument for having an unchanging starting lineup?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-20 02:13 PM - Post#302840
In response to Chip Bayers
Continuity tends to yield defensive gains. I forget the specifics. It used to be part of my YoY projection model.
Not a massive effect but was significant.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8262
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-20 02:22 PM - Post#302843
In response to mrjames
Would it not make more sense to look at the allocation of PT over the course of entire games than obsess over who starts?
This team has pretty consistently gotten off to fast starts all year and I attribute some of that to the matchups created from the lineup shuffles.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-20 05:27 PM - Post#302878
In response to Streamers
Would it not make more sense to look at the allocation of PT over the course of entire games than obsess over who starts?
This team has pretty consistently gotten off to fast starts all year and I attribute some of that to the matchups created from the lineup shuffles.
Right, continuity argues for a Dunphy Iron Seven approach, without caring who starts.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8262
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-20 05:50 PM - Post#302881
In response to Chip Bayers
I always wished the iron 7 was more like 8 or 9 on Ivy weekends. Often, the depth was not there for that.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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This One Thing Drives Me up a Wall
03-03-20 06:20 PM - Post#302883
In response to Streamers
I'm not arguing for continuity for continuity's sake. I'm arguing not to mess with your best ORAT guys when they go through a minor slip. it's not working.
We had the presumptive ROY* on the board and we bench him why? for who? for what?
anyway, end of day, we're 170**, 125, 130, 142 in the last 4 years in Ken Pom with a 16seed. And I'd be SHOCKED if we were as highly rated next year. Is that what we're all here for? Is that okay?
* does everyone bow down to my Jordan Dingle take now or at the end of the season? Just asking.
** that's from his 2nd year in charge. if you want to omit that one as he hadn't had enough time, that's fair. but we're done trending upwards. we've stagnated at best.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: This One Thing Drives Me up a Wall
03-03-20 06:35 PM - Post#302886
In response to Jeff2sf
As much as we talk about how hard it is to gauge recruiting and how much of a crapshoot recruiting is... it's actually a pretty good predictor of how teams will finish in the long run.
Penn has been the fourth-best recruiting team in the Ivies not far behind Princeton and Yale. There's been a lot of talent flowing into this league, so you can have a Top 150 team even with the fourth-best recruiting hauls. But it's hard to win more Ivy games without winning more recruiting battles.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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This One Thing Drives Me up a Wall
03-03-20 06:49 PM - Post#302891
In response to mrjames
well sure. Steve is perfectly cromulent. I'm sure we're not in much danger of going down to 5 or 6 on a long term basis (side note, kind of a drag it's been the same 4 teams every year).
it absolutely could get worse, and.i recognize the irony of calling for change in the coaching staff* in the same thread I'm calling for continuity in the personnel. But we know who Steve is. SOOOO...
* Sort of. I'd make the change but I recognize not many will now so it's fine.
Edited by Jeff2sf on 03-03-20 06:50 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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The Pine
Freshman
Posts: 61
Reg: 02-22-15
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03-03-20 08:20 PM - Post#302897
In response to Jeff2sf
You guys are crazy. It is a bad year because of injury and the team is hanging in there with freshmen. Look at Harvard, they have injuries as well, but still not starting 3 freshmen.
Give the SD a break. He has proven he is a good judge of talent. The league is just more talented overall than everyone wants to accept.
It is possible that Penn can win the Madness--they matchup well with Yale and Harvard and Princeton aren't that great.
Relax
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2695
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-03-20 08:22 PM - Post#302898
In response to The Pine
After the injuries, a lot of parity this year. Despite Yale’s ranking, no Ivy team is that good at the moment.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: This One Thing Drives Me up a Wall
03-03-20 08:26 PM - Post#302899
In response to Jeff2sf
Next year should be telling. It is possible that as much as anything our top 150 years have been the result of one impact recruit, and he is finishing up his Penn career.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2695
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-03-20 08:28 PM - Post#302900
In response to SomeGuy
Most of the league could be weaker next year.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-03-20 09:11 PM - Post#302901
In response to Streamers
Eye test for me suggests this is true, or maybe it’s a confirmation bias. Starting Simmons seems to work initially, but not when opponents get used to it. Same thing with the unexpected lineup with Martz, Betley, Monroe, which changes up how we handle the ball and start the offense. We seem to gain an initial advantage with a surprise starting look.
I’m not sure it is just injury driving when Steve changes things around, but performance might. 3 of the last 4 years we’ve shuffled the lineups, and in each case that was after we staggered initially in conference.
I guess personally I’m not horrified, so long as the kids are buying in. No idea if they are, or if Jordan Dingle is wondering why he came off the bench this weekend after a big game the prior Saturday. We know there was a Silpe family member on here complaining a couple of years ago, but beyond that it seems like everybody is at least saying the right things publicly.
However, while I am not horrified, I think some of the tinkering is unnecessary and potentially counterproductive. I think the staff overreacted to the first Princeton loss each of the last two years, and allowed what may have just been a bad night cause some questioning of basic principles. I think we then got away from the basic principles in the second game each year and conceivably lost because of it. There may be matchup reasons why our optimal lineup is a little different night to night. What I think is counterproductive is changing our minds about the optimal lineup generally on the basis of one bad result. Eddie Scott may turn his head and allow a maddening back door once in a while. That shouldn’t mean he plays 4 minutes the next night. That 140 ORAT should be out there for 25 minutes a night, even on nights when makes some mistakes.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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This One Thing Drives Me up a Wall
03-03-20 10:23 PM - Post#302907
In response to SomeGuy
I kind of like the idea of bringing Dingle off the bench as instant offense, especially given how little production there’s been from there most of the year.
Of course we have no idea whether or not there is actual discipline happening in these moves. Guys might sit for a particular game or even a weekend if they’re late for practice. Or they missed a class. Or because they were bad in practice. Or because of some matchup the coaches think can be exploited. Or because the team got swept on the road the previous weekend and they simply want to shake things up.
Media coverage that might offer some insights to personnel use is definitely lacking.
Edited by Chip Bayers on 03-03-20 10:26 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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