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Username Post: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
08-19-16 02:11 PM - Post#209752    

Figured I'd get the conversation going before we find out which handful of All-Ivy caliber folks are going to miss the season and render all of these projections moot.

For me, the era of doing the detailed projections is over, but I do have a simple, top-level model that can help provide a directional understanding. The top-level model uses past trends in ORAT and DRAT by league and team along with the continuity of the roster year-over-year to drive to separate offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.

Team Conf ORAT DRAT Pytha g ImpRankNatl
Brown Ivy 100.2 107.8 0.322 243
Columbia Ivy 105.3 106.8 0.464 173
Cornell Ivy 101.6 105.6 0.403 196
Dartmouth Ivy 99.9 104.8 0.380 206
Harvard Ivy 105.4 98.2 0.673 97
Penn Ivy 100.5 105.5 0.379 206
Princeton Ivy 113.0 100.0 0.778 52
Yale Ivy 104.3 99.6 0.617 115

These are really only starting points, best fit to those teams that have had pretty normal year-over-year transitions. I feel pretty good about teams like Princeton, Dartmouth, Cornell, Columbia and Brown, but Harvard, Penn and Yale might be tougher to nail down exactly, as each of those schools have brought in better than the usual non-BCS options to fill holes.

Regardless this is a decent starting point, which would suggest that our first Ivy tournament will likely involve a Harvard-Yale first round game and Princeton versus pretty much any of those other teams. It also predicts that we'll have our first average Pythag over .5000 as a league, which would put us in contention to sneak out of the teens into 11th or 12th.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4894
08-19-16 07:51 PM - Post#209760    

Hope Princeton lives up to or exceeds the hype.,At least it's based on lots of proven performers, some of them young. I feel like they had harmful variance last season on both ends of the floor, perhaps not surprising on offense,given all the threes, but disturbing on defense where they just collapsed for key stretches. Their resilience seemed much better last season than in previous years when things went pear-shaped, but not quite to the point of having that clear championship look that gives a fan gut-level confidence. It would be nice to see some evolution there.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
08-19-16 09:19 PM - Post#209762    

You want hype? Check out Bart Torvik'a site:

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Princeton&...

I respect his work/methodology and while I think this is maybe a bit high, with what Princeton has coming back and how it performed last year, it's certainly possible...
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
09-21-16 09:13 AM - Post#210640    

So far, here's how the preseason annuals have come out as well:

Athlon
1. Princeton
2. Harvard
3. Yale
4. Penn
5. Columbia
6. Cornell
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown

Lindy's
1. Princeton
2. Harvard
3. Yale
4. Penn
5. Cornell
6. Columbia
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown

Bart Torvik
1. Princeton
2. Harvard
3. Yale
4. Columbia
5. Penn
6. Cornell
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
09-21-16 09:35 AM - Post#210642    

Looks like there are three primary competitions this season:

First, which of Columbia, Cornell, Penn and possibly Dartmouth will finish 4th and make the playoff?

Second, although Princeton rightfully is the favorite for the regular season title, can Amaker coach and Chambers/Edosomwan lead Harvard's incoming class to a tournament title?

Finally, can Princeton and Harvard dominate the league and fare well enough OOC to warrant a second NCAA bid?

Did I miss anything?
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
09-21-16 10:16 AM - Post#210644    

Your comments appear logical and reasonable although there is normally a surprise or two, i.e. injuries, performance etc.

I believe that one of these two teams will surprise for a playoff spot -- Cornell or Dartmouth. Coach Earl will get the Cornell scorers, Hatter and Morgan, to play in a system and share the ball. Dartmouth has two very talented players. Also, it would not shock me if Yale competes for the League title with Makai Mason. He is one of the few Ivy League players that can score on his own as witnessed with his amazing one on one play against Baylor in the NCAA tournament.

The last wild card might be how good Harvard will be with the talent infusion. If the freshmen are so talented and mature, who knows how good they will be this year with Chambers and Edosomwan? For Princeton, will Brase recover from injury and give another big body against Harvard and the other Ivies as well against big teams if they get into post-season tournament play?

I am skeptical about two teams going to the Big Dance as well as the merits of the Ivy League tournament but time will tell if it was the correct decision.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
09-21-16 10:47 AM - Post#210646    

Good points bradley. Yale should be able to compete with Princeton and Harvard. Cornell has the two most electric scorers in the league, and Dartmouth has two returning ROY and a nice freshman class.

I believe no one other than Columbia can compete in the frontcourt with Harvard and Princeton. If either Brase or Siyani are not healthy, that would certainly affect things. On the other hand, both teams are the deepest in the league.

Of course, when we get to the tournament, almost anything can happen on any given night - especially in the Palestra.

As for the NCAA committee, recent history seems to confirm that the selection committee (and the NCAA) want to give out as few spots as possible to mid-majors. If that's true, then our tournament may be for naught (and a thorn in their side). As others have said, if Princeton has an incredible season but loses the tournament it could happen. How about if Harvard gets a commitment from Carter or Bamba? Might put Harvard in the spotlight, even this season.



Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2801
09-21-16 10:58 AM - Post#210650    

Tournament still sucks - even if League gets 2nd bid for Tourney winner that did not win season championship.

Any word on Harvard "Lite" one and done prospects?
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
09-21-16 11:56 AM - Post#210653    

Yale will be just fine in the frontcourt - maybe not deep, but Bruner + Downey/Reynolds should be formidable.

History isn't favorable for Harvard catching Princeton. Unless Harvard's recruiting class is drastically underrated (which would be hard), there aren't any examples of a non-Top-100 team getting a No. 10ish class and hopping any higher than say 60-80s. That would put them at a solid betting disadvantage against a Princeton team that should sit comfortably in the 30-50 range all season. Now, you could argue that the Siyani angle is unique, but... I'm not so sure I buy it.
Okoro Dude
Senior
Posts 309
09-21-16 12:57 PM - Post#210655    

I buy the Siyani angle if he return to being the player shooting 40%+ from three and not the one shooting 36% from the field. The first one is almost impossible to guard.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
09-21-16 01:12 PM - Post#210658    

I think last year's team would have been ranked much higher with Siyani, but probably still sub-100. However, having a top tier senior point guard, senior center, two three point shooters and a nationally ranked recruiting class could fit together quite nicely.
ahg46
Freshman
Posts 11
09-21-16 01:31 PM - Post#210660    

1-Princeton
2-Cornell
3-Harvard
4-Penn
5-Dartmouth
6-Yale
7-Columbia
8-Brown

Harvard will improve dramatically from start to finish and challenge for the 2 spot. Penn, Dart and Yale may finish in a 3 way. Oh sorry that is Yale in a 3 way and the threesome in a tie.

SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
09-21-16 01:40 PM - Post#210661    

I know I've made this point before, but . . . I think there are scenarios where the tournament winner is more deserving than the regular season winner. For example, Harvard goes 13-1 and Princeton goes 12-2. Harvard loses in the first round of the playoff. Princeton wins the conference tournament. Now Princeton is 14-2 and Harvard is 13-2.

To me, the more basketball games we play against each other, the better the chances that we get the best team in the NCAAs. Once in a blue moon there will be an egregious tourney winner -- say if Columbia goes 6-8 to finish 4th this year, and then wins the conference tourney. But the odds of that probably aren't much different at this point in the season than they would be of a .500ish level Columbia team winning a bunch of close games and sneaking away with the league regular season (i.e., very low).
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
09-21-16 02:16 PM - Post#210662    

Your concept of the more games played against 'each other' only works if all the games count equally. If the final game is determinative, there is an increased chance that game is an outlier.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
09-21-16 02:55 PM - Post#210664    

It has been puzzling looking at the decline in Chambers shooting other than free throws from his freshmen year. Perhaps with time off due to the injury, he has regained his shooting form. I must admit that he does not create fear with his offensive game as he does not create his own shots like Makai Mason.

His obvious strengths are leadership and passing which will be well utilized by Amaker for Zena's benefit and the freshmen players. He will probably be Amaker's replacement when Amaker retires at a ripe old age. It might be Chambers against Weisz 15 years from now.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
09-21-16 03:12 PM - Post#210666    

I provided most of my empirical work and accompanying thoughts on episode 2 of this season's podcast, but I can summarize here:

In the current Ivy landscape, the difference between the objective odds of winning the NCAA bid via the 14-Game Tournament or via the conference tournament is minimal. Back when there was one really good team and a bunch of awful teams, there was a BIG risk in having the conference tournament. Not anymore, though. We have 2-3 teams (sometimes more) every year that are good enough to play competitively with NCAA-caliber, big conference programs. I mean, last year's four-seed would have been Harvard, which beat bubble team BYU and played Kansas and Oklahoma extremely tight.

As the league continues to strengthen, we could potentially have a team left out of the four-team tourney that could have avoided the 16-line in the NCAAs.

I'd be more jazzed about this whole thing if we could have gotten more MTEs and not given up a non-conf game, etc, but if there was ever a time to go this route, the time is now...
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
09-21-16 03:30 PM - Post#210669    

Siyani Chambers shot 30% at the rim in 2014-15 and took roughly 20% of his attempts from there.

This was a team without really any perimeter threats that season and defenses just packed it in. Shooting 30% at the rim is so bad - basically Harvard FT% last year level bad.

Siyani still takes way too many long twos for a guy who shoots mid-30s from that range, but I'd wager his eFG% will rise just from shooting much better at the rim with more spacing this season. The dirty little secret about Siyani is that his numbers in end-of-shot-clock situations (those that Curry was so, so good at) are pretty terrible, so a more dynamic offensive team (i.e. different ways of attacking) should help his numbers rise.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4894
09-21-16 08:30 PM - Post#210687    

Curry had that knack for getting space for a good look in just a couple of seconds.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
09-21-16 09:41 PM - Post#210689    


1. Princeton
2. Harvard
3. Yale
4. Columbia
5. Cornell
6. Dartmouth
7. Penn
8. Brown

Harvard wins tournament. Thanks guys for the second chance!

PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3580
09-22-16 04:44 AM - Post#210698    

1. Princeton
2. Yale
3. Penn
4. Dartmouth
5. Harvard
6. Columbia
7. Cornell
8. Brown
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 805
09-22-16 09:31 AM - Post#210701    

[PennFan10] In the scramble for that 4th spot, what your rationale for Dartmouth taking it? Don't get me wrong I LIKE IT!... but on paper it's hard placing Harvard out of the mix with healthy Chambers.
"...no excuses - only results!”

SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
09-22-16 10:08 AM - Post#210702    

As much as I'd like to see it, it is very hard for me to imagine Penn or Dartmouth (let alone both) leap-frogging Harvard this year. While the standings were close last year, overall I think Harvard was considerably better than teams 5-8 in the league. Put another way, I think Harvard's 6-8 was near the bottom of their possible outcomes for a 14 game season (and they still finished 4th).

So to get past Harvard, in all likelihood Penn and Dartmouth would have to bridge a large gap. The likeihood of that seems very low when 1) Harvard was better to begin with; 2)Harvard returns an All-Ivy level player who is better than anything they lost; 3) Penn and Dartmouth both lose one of their strongest players; and 4) Harvard brings in a much better recruiting class.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
09-22-16 11:49 AM - Post#210715    

GBG and SomeGuy, note that the most recent prognostication was actually submitted as a response to mine. Logic or rationality was likely not a factor. All in good fun I'm sure.

Res ipsa loquitor.
Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts 3988
09-22-16 04:13 PM - Post#210745    

While I recognize that 3-11 in the league last year would not give one great cause for optimism, I will, nonetheless argue that the Bears are being underappreciated in these early polls. Brown split with Cornell, Penn and Dartmouth and played two close games with Columbia. Brown lost only one player who played in league games last year, and I would argue that 6 or 7 teams suffered great graduation losses. I have not seen any of the incoming players and, unlike others on these Boards,I will refrain from predicting immediate help from the Frosh or from a transfer, but I expect they will provide some needed depth upfront. With 3 seasoned seniors and having Okolie for a full year, Daugherty healthy, and Fuller a year older, will also bode well. I will not predict that Brown will challenge for a top two or three spot, but I wouldn't be shocked if we challenge for Ivy Tourney inclusion.
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
09-22-16 04:39 PM - Post#210748    

For one thing, Massey played 13 of the 14 conference games, so Brown lost two contributors. Overall, Cornell, Penn, and Princeton all lost nowhere close to what Brown lost from last year. Penn is the only other one of those three to lose a significant contributor. And Princeton not only doesn't lose anybody -- they gain back a 3 year starter.

While I disagree on your facts, I don't necessarily disagree with the conclusion. While Brown looks like the most likely 8th place team to me, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them finish as high as 5th. If they get in the playoff as the 4th team, I'll be a little surprised, but only a little. Spieth and Blackmon have a lot of experience under their belts at this point that could pay dividends. Brown wasn't that far behind Penn, Dartmouth, and Cornell last year (if at all), so a different outcome this time seems perfectly plausible.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
09-22-16 04:44 PM - Post#210749    

Fair enough Old Bear. Not suggesting Bears won't be competitive and win games, but question is who will they leapfrog? Kuakamensah was so important in all parts of the game. He was the backstop on defense, possibly the best shot blocker and rebounder in the league, and a force on offense - both in the paint and from 3. Quite a big loss.

With all due respect, Brown is in the bottom five, but Cornell returns everyone and Columbia has great front court depth with players that were underutilized behing Lo, Mullin, Rosenberg and Cohen last year. That leaves Penn and Dartmouth. Penn has a strong recruit and two tantalizing transfers plus Woods hopefully returning for league play. Dartmouth has last two ROY's plus a strong recruiting class. I'm not saying Brown is futile, but I'm missing their 'story.'
Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts 3988
09-22-16 04:53 PM - Post#210750    

You are correct, Massey did play in league games but his contribution, and minutes, declined significantly as the Ivy season progressed. Certainly CK will be missed. Okolie got better and better as the league season progressed. I don't believe the teams ranked 4 thru 8 are relatively comparable. I guess we will see.
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
09-22-16 05:35 PM - Post#210753    

I'm sorry -- "don't believe the teams ranked 4-8 are relatively comparable," or "do believe"? Seems like 4-8 being comparable is a good fact for Brown. Or maybe you are saying that Brown is better than the other teams teams in that group (and not comparable)?

Regardless, I certainly agree that we will see. Should be a fun year. Like last year, the 8th place team would have been competing for 3rd place in the league not all that many years ago. There wasn't a really bad team in the league last year, and it should be even better this year, which is a welcome change.
Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2801
09-22-16 05:37 PM - Post#210754    

I've never been much of a realist. But, if my Tigers sweep the League (the REAL Championship), I'll pull for the Bears to sneak into the silly League tournament and win it. Then, the NCAA will have to take us both and the League tournament will be thrown out for the bad idea it is.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3580
09-22-16 07:57 PM - Post#210765    

HGrad outed me. I was trying to mix things up a bit. It's easy to predict Harvard at 1 or 2. Takes a lot more guts to make them 5th this year and it's a far more interesting discussion to most of us to talk about how that happens.


Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2801
09-23-16 11:05 AM - Post#210777    

But, we would certainly enjoy seeing that happen.
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
09-23-16 11:19 AM - Post#210778    

Yes, I don't think many of us will be crying if Harvard doesn't compete for the title this year. Realistically, I think 4th is as low as they go.

Stuff could go wrong -- an injury to Zena could hurt them a lot. I think they'll be better positioned to do without Chambers if he were to get hurt again, as McCarthy will be a year older and Aiken may be able to step in right away. But Chambers is very important to competing to win the league, too. And, as Mike pointed out, there is a lot of space to cover between where Harvard was last year and where Princeton was. I think expectations could bite Harvard (which is why I'd prefer to see everybody picking them 1st instead of 5th!), too. You've got a freshman class for the ages, and a whole roster of 3 and 4 star recruits playing in a league that is still mostly 2 star recruits. Confidence could carry them to a title, but it also could flip on them if the road isn't as easy as they expect. Winning tends to prevent a lot of playing times issues, etc. With the loaded roster, losing could result in dissension (which in turn could lead to more losing).
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
09-23-16 11:23 AM - Post#210780    

Who knows what will happen in small samples, but when it comes to Pomeroy rank, the only possible way I could see Harvard finishing ahead of Princeton is if the Tigers somehow fail to improve over last season. There are just literally NO comps that I can see of a non-Top-100 team vaulting to the Top 50 based on a strong freshman class. Maybe Harvard is the first, but I don't like betting against history.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
09-23-16 12:06 PM - Post#210782    

Unless that non-top 100 team played with only one freshman PG, lost it's all league center to injury for part of the year, and is getting it's nationally recognized Senior PG back.

I hope.

Regardless, an experienced Princeton team playing an offensive system that relies on intricacies and coordination should be the favorite (+ Brase returns).
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
09-23-16 12:42 PM - Post#210785    

I'm curious whether this scenario has ever happened in a conference like the Ivy, though. While the league has gotten much better, it may be that the level of the recruiting class compared to the rest of the league is unprecedented. I know that pomeroy, etc., are taking differences in league into account in rating a Princeton where they are likely to be, so ostensibly Princeton's rank of 50 should be the same as Michigan's rank of 50. But I wonder. Perhaps more importantly, it may be easier for a Harvard to make that leap in a league with only 2 top 100 teams compared to a Florida making that leap in a conference where nearly everyone is top 100.

I really do love the matchup though. Super experienced Princeton team with lots of seniors playing against a super talented, young Harvard team with a bunch of top 100 recruits. You can't ask for a clearer contrast in the debate of experience vs. talent. Perhaps that contrast could be part of what might make the league compelling for an at large. Throw in Makai Mason, who I can't imagine conceding anything to anybody, and a league where I'm hoping there isn't a single team in the bottom 100 in Pomeroy (we didn't quite make it last year, but it was close). Seems like it is shaping up to be a superbly interesting season.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
09-23-16 08:24 PM - Post#210806    

Yeah, I really don't know about Harvard. If you asked me to give you a 95% confidence interval on Pythag or national rank, it would be exceedingly wide. Probably the weirdest team to predict since I've been predicting the Ivies, almost certainly the weirdest team projected to go up. There have been some doozies headed for a big tumble.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4894
09-24-16 01:08 PM - Post#210817    

Yale could be very good. Their front court backups improved over the course of last season to the point of outplaying Baylor's starters in the NCAAs when Sherrod and Sears were on the bench in foul trouble and Mason had stopped scoring. Then they played very well against Duke. And they will still be tall, regardless.
hoopla
Masters Student
Posts 486
09-26-16 10:06 AM - Post#210850    

GBGB,

I doubt we will pass Harvard (though you never know with all their newcomers).

But we will be top 4.

I actually like the expectations of everyone outside the Dartmouth program being lower than they should be.

It will make the great season ahead "pop" even more and serve our promising new coach and his staff well as they continue to take our program forward and to new heights in the years to come.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
09-26-16 10:17 AM - Post#210852    

You raise a valid point regarding the Tigers if they can improve over their play last year to fend off Harvard as well as performing at a high level if they go to the NCAA tournament. With the return of Brase, assuming that he has recovered from the ACL surgery, the Tigers will have a wide body that they will need against the Crimson and top level teams. A legitimate question exists if Brase's offensive skill sets can mesh with the faster paced Tiger offense. It is unlikely that Weisz, Miller and Caruso will improve much. It is hard to believe that Cannady will be much better than last year as he was a major contributor.

The two wild cards might be Cook and Bell. If Cook plays like the second half last year and hits his 3 pt shots, he has the natural ability to raise his game to another level. The same holds true with Bell to a lesser extent but he does have additional upside especially with his ability to go to the basket.


GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 805
09-26-16 01:36 PM - Post#210862    

I get the sense from everything I've read and seen that the Big Green program is moving forward in good way. I fully expect McLaughlin to build on the good work of Cormier.

I saw a picture of the team in the weight room with the mantra Work Hard, Work Smart, Work Together on their t-shirts. That's consistent with what McLaughlin said in his introductory presser. He's consistent, we know that.
"...no excuses - only results!”

1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts 2262
1LotteryPick1969
09-26-16 05:18 PM - Post#210877    

  • bradley Said:

The two wild cards might be Cook and Bell. If Cook plays like the second half last year and hits his 3 pt shots, he has the natural ability to raise his game to another level. The same holds true with Bell to a lesser extent but he does have additional upside especially with his ability to go to the basket.




I would add Myles Stephens as a player who could raise his game. And Alec Brennan?.....still hoping.

GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 805
09-26-16 10:34 PM - Post#210881    

Blue ribbon basketball released their rankings:

1 Princeton
2 Yale
3 Harvard
4 Penn
5 Columbia
6 Cornell
7 Brown
8 Dartmouth
"...no excuses - only results!”

bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
09-27-16 01:43 PM - Post#210906    

If one goes under the assumption that Princeton does not improve from last year but remains pretty much the same with the same players plus Brase, the next question might be which other Ivy team can perform similarly to Yale's team from last year during the regular season --- Sears, Sherrod, Mason, Victor, Montaue/Dallier/Downey?? Tall shoes to fill. Yale was 13-1; Tigers 12-2.

The great equalizer may be the inaugural Ivy League tournament.
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 805
10-11-16 03:04 PM - Post#211425    

PREDICTED FINISH by Rob Dauster @ NBCSports

1. Princeton
2. Harvard
3. Yale
4. Penn
5. Cornell
6. Columbia
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown

Ivy League Season Preview: Princeton, Harvard and Yale headline as league makes major changes


"...no excuses - only results!”

mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
10-11-16 04:38 PM - Post#211428    

Like Makai Mason as the Ivy Preseason POY. That Yale team is going to be dangerous. Not terribly deep, which could hurt them in back-to-backs, but they've got sneakier top-level talent than people might think.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
10-11-16 04:39 PM - Post#211429    

Very cursory analysis by NBC Sports. Pretty much discussed returning all-Ivy players and new coaches but not much more. Maybe that's enough. Hope not.
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 805
10-19-16 01:05 PM - Post#211671    

Duke, Kentucky, Kansas top CBS Sports' 1-351 college basketball rankings by Matt Norlander & Gary Parrish. [Ivy League breakout]

(1) 54. Princeton
The Tigers are fully stocked with a returning group of starters. Henry Caruso is the best player on the team, and if you think I'm overrating Princeton, then be sure to check out just how efficient this group was against the conference last season. No Ivy program has the reliable depth and relative strength 1-7 like Princeton.

(2) 67. Harvard
Some think Harvard's better than Princeton, but I'm not convinced. However, Siyani Chambers is now a senior and back after missing last season to a torn ACL. Zena Edosomwan is a beast down low. Corey Johnson could be a breakout player in the Ivy League. Dangerous team, and if Chambers goes god-mode in conference play, then it gets really interesting.

(3) 105. Yale:
The Bulldogs finally made an NCAA Tournament last season, doing so for the first time since the early 1960s. But Justin Sears, Brandon Sherrod and Jack Montague are gone. Makai Mason is a top-100 player in the game, though. Yale's capable of taking the Ivy auto bid now that the league has (foolishly) gone to a four-team conference playoff format.

(4) 165. Penn
A young team that will play above its talent level thanks to Steve Donahue. The Quakers are two years away from trading blows with Harvard at the top of the conference.

(5) 191. Columbia
The Lions had the personnel last season to steal the Ivy title, but it never truly came together. Jim Engles has built more from less. I'm putting the over/under on Engles finishing top two in the Ivy in the next five seasons at 1.5 -- and taking the over. Right now, it's a question of who steps up to be a go-to guy for Columbia.

(6) 212. Dartmouth
Has anyone ever been higher on an Ivy League program with a new coach than me? Dartmouth brings in David McLaughlin. Gimme the Big Green to improve from 4-10 to 6-8 in the Ivy this season.

(7) 217. Cornell
Bill Courtney could never get as much momentum as I thought he would at Cornell, but he did recruit a stud in Matt Morgan, and the sophomore will make Brian Earl's first season a lot easier than it otherwise would be. Morgan's a ridiculously good player. He'll average north of 20 points this season if Earl runs the offense through him.

(8) 274. Brown
Likely the worst team in the Ivy. A key defensive force, Cedric Kuakumensah, graduated. They do have some experience. On the whole, should be better than last season, but the league overall will be better, too.


Duke, Kentucky, Kansas top CBS Sports' 1-351 college basketball rankings
"...no excuses - only results!”

HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
10-19-16 01:34 PM - Post#211673    

Thanks for doing the work.

Interesting that CBS ranks the 4th place team (Penn) closer to the 7th place team (Cornell) than it does to the 3rd place team (Yale).




palestra38
Professor
Posts 32687
10-19-16 02:10 PM - Post#211676    

That's because it's pretty obviously the case.
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 805
10-19-16 02:18 PM - Post#211677    

2016-17 IVY LEAGUE MEN'S BASKETBALL PRESEASON MEDIA POLL PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

2016-17 IVY LEAGUE MEN'S BASKETBALL PRESEASON MEDIA POLL
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
First-Place Votes in Parentheses
Rank School Points
1. Princeton (12) 130
2. Harvard (5) 123
3. Yale 101
4. Penn 72
5. Columbia 61
6. Dartmouth 48
7. Cornell 42
8. Brown 35

Not as fun as @ivybball #ivyfanpoll but yielded the same results!!!
"...no excuses - only results!”

GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 805
10-23-16 10:07 PM - Post#211902    

KenPom.com is out. The Ivy League is 14th with a -1.06 averaged AdjO and AdjD rating, behind the Missouri Valley Conference with a +0.88 rating.

1. Princeton 35
2. Yale 116
3. Harvard 128
4. Columbia 195
5. Dartmouth 216
6. Cornell 225
7. Penn 231
8. Brown 256
"...no excuses - only results!”

mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
10-23-16 10:37 PM - Post#211904    

KenPom's likely underselling Harvard and Yale, possibly in a big way due to the use of league history to regress performance for unknown roles rather than the specific players those two teams have coming in.

That won't do as much to the average as it did in past years due to his use of Win50 versus a straight average, but it will certainly help.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
10-24-16 10:25 AM - Post#211906    

Somehow, the influx of freshmen players does not adversely effect Kentucky and other big time schools preseason rankings --- wonder why? I am sure that there are issues of putting together a team with a lot of very young mem but ... Harvard's ranking is very surprising.

Ivy League conference overall ranking is not helped by the schedule put together by several Ivy teams. If you want to be acknowledged as a conference, the Ivies have to compete at a higher level --- Princeton does have 5 games against top 100 teams, fortunately. Most importantly, the Ivies need to win a much higher percentage of games against higher ranked teams in the past.


mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
10-24-16 12:01 PM - Post#211915    

Well... that's exactly right. KP fills in the blanks with historical league/team performance, so a league like the SEC isn't going to regress a program much if it needs to fill in the blanks with a frosh - unlike for the Ivy League. I'd wager that nuanced projection systems, like Hanner/Winn with SI, will have Harvard in the Top 100 and *maybe* Yale as well (Yale's more of a gamble, because you're betting on one player - Jordan Bruner - being really good, which I have reason to believe he will be).

This year's schedules are pretty solid actually. Harvard has 5 Tier B games, a couple of which could end up being Tier A games. Last year's gauntlet of a schedule had 2 Tier B and 3 Tier A games, so it's not far off that one. Princeton has 2 Tier A and 3 Tier B games. Yale has 2 Tier A and 3 Tier B games as well. Penn has 2 Tier A and 2 Tier B. Cornell has 2 Tier A and 3 Tier B. Brown has 3 Tier A. Dartmouth has 1 Tier A and 3 Tier B and finally Columbia has 2 Tier As and 1 Tier B.

That's plenty of opportunities against site-adjusted Top 50 and Top 100 opponents - more than in recent years top-to-bottom. Every team has to pitch in, though. Scalps matter across the league, not just for the bubble contender.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
10-31-16 03:00 PM - Post#212190    

AP Top 25 preseason poll just came out. Princeton received 2 votes --- Harvard 1 vote. At least, two Ivy teams actually received mention.
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 805
11-01-16 02:22 PM - Post#212253    

Random commentary but interesting.
"...no excuses - only results!”

palestra38
Professor
Posts 32687
11-02-16 01:33 PM - Post#212335    

If that guy picks Penn for fourth based solely on returning players without consideration of Brodeur and the two transfers, I am more optimistic than before. I wouldn't pick Penn for 4th without the new players making a major contribution.
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 805
11-02-16 01:55 PM - Post#212337    

Agree especially if the Freshman is going to be a starter.
"...no excuses - only results!”

SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
11-10-16 03:11 PM - Post#212878    

Should we all do our picks again now that Mason is out?
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 805
11-10-16 04:44 PM - Post#212893    

I had the same thought. Who moves up and who moves down?
"...no excuses - only results!”

mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
11-10-16 05:21 PM - Post#212904    

Just adjusting the continuity-based model for Makai's absence, I've now got Yale really close to where Columbia was (though I have Columbia lower now too due to Castlin).

Team Conf ORAT DRAT Pytha g ImpRank
Brown Ivy 100.2 107.8 0.322 243
Columbia Ivy 103.6 107.6 0.403 196
Cornell Ivy 101.0 105.9 0.383 205
Dartmouth Ivy 99.9 104.8 0.380 206
Harvard Ivy 106.0 97.9 0.692 89
Penn Ivy 100.5 105.5 0.379 206
Princeton Ivy 113.0 100.0 0.778 52
Yale Ivy 100.3 101.5 0.469 170

Frankly, though anything from 3-7 looks pretty murky and really a reasonable miss from this top-level model could have a team like Brown ending up 3rd best.

The good news for Yale is that a reasonable comp (Cornell 2010) lost about the same number of minutes/key players from the same starting point and stayed in the Top 200. And that's a team that was better offensively than defensively. Offense is more dependent on continuity than defense, so you'd expect a more defensively-oriented squad like Yale to fall a bit less with the same amount of turnover. In other words, I think Yale will now fall to the pack, but will probably have the highest floor of any of the teams down there.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
11-10-16 05:30 PM - Post#212906    

Thank Mike.

I'm struck by the calculation that 6 of the Ivy's 8 teams project at 170 to 243. Looks like there will be a very competitive 6 team race. If Harvard doesn't gel in time to avoid falling behind Princeton, then the race for the two remaining playoff spots will be the focus.
Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts 3988
11-10-16 09:44 PM - Post#212924    

How well did Nate Silver do on the election? I'm going to wait until early January before I predict how the League stacks up.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-20-17 11:46 AM - Post#227781    

Worth a bump on this.

Here's what my continuity model said going into the year:

Team Conf ORAT DRAT Pytha g ImpRank
Brown Ivy 100.2 107.8 0.322 243
Columbia Ivy 103.6 107.6 0.403 196
Cornell Ivy 101.0 105.9 0.383 205
Dartmouth Ivy 99.9 104.8 0.380 206
Harvard Ivy 106.0 97.9 0.692 89
Penn Ivy 100.5 105.5 0.379 206
Princeton Ivy 113.0 100.0 0.778 52
Yale Ivy 100.3 101.5 0.469 170

From an efficiency margin perspective (since that's how KP judges things now), here's the expected efficiency margin from above and then the actual:

Team Expected / Actual
Brown (7.55) / (9.86)
Columbia (4.03) / (6.27)
Cornell (4.83) / (8.72)
Dartmouth (4.91) / (12.96)
Harvard 8.03 / 4.75
Penn (4.96) / (0.21)
Princeton 13.01 / 12.59
Yale (1.22) / 1.00

All in all, it's not a bad first blush estimator. The biggest misses were Dartmouth (overpredicted) and Penn (underpredicted) but every other team finished within 4 pts/100 poss of the expected Efficiency Margin.

In the future, I'd probably add a frosh mins expectation based on how strong frosh contributions can overcome the need for more continuity (I plugged Harvard's continuity to account for the frosh - and slightly over projected - because without it, Harvard would have been near 200, which didn't seem right).

It's a good first approximation though.



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