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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-11-16 12:24 PM - Post#210349
3 is the magic number! 1. Dartmouth has beaten Harvard every year since Miles Wright has been there. Can they do it again this year? 2. Dartmouth has had the Ivy Rookie of the year two years running. Can they do it again this year? 3. In the Miles Wright era Dartmouth has never finished behind Cornell or Brown. Can they do it again this year?
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-11-16 12:36 PM - Post#210350
1. They are focused on winning beating Harvard once isn't a goal...beating them twice is inline with their new winning attitude.
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
09-11-16 12:39 PM - Post#210351
1) Possible, but likely will be ~60-70% that Harvard sweeps when we see what performance would imply over the first half of the season. 2) Very, very unlikely. The 2014 class was supremely weak for the Ivies, and Boudreaux was the most highly-rated recruit in the stronger 2015 class. The 2016 entering cohort is probably the best the Ivies have seen in the AI era, and while Dartmouth pulled some nice pieces, it's a ridiculous longshot. 3) Maybe. Very within the margin of error that they could finish ahead of both, behind both or in between. It's a real cluster from 4-8 in the league. |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-11-16 12:42 PM - Post#210352
2. Bringing in 3 MCD's nominees is a good start to another shot at Freshman of the Year. Also, according to two basketball season preview magazines suggests they have at least one freshman who should see the floor. With 6! Freshman they have numbers in the class improving odds that one or more might rise.
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-11-16 12:47 PM - Post#210353
3. With the scramble in 4 through 8 I'm taking the talented combo of Miles Wright & Evan Boudreaux to carry the Big Green over Cornell and Brown in the league.
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
09-11-16 01:50 PM - Post#210355
The key, for me, is that there were a crazy number of impact players getting picked up across the Ivies, and with the exception of Princeton, they were almost all coming into places where, if they have the talent, they won't be blocked. Columbia's Mike Smith steps into a PG void. Really the only highly heralded Harvard freshman that could be blocked is Bryce Aiken, but even so, there will be plenty of time for a playmaking PG. Penn's AJ Brodeur steps into a chasm of quality minutes from Quaker bigs. And my current clubhouse favorite for Ivy ROY, Jordan Bruner, will get every opportunity to own the Sears/Sherrod spot. All of those players would probably have higher odds than Dartmouth's frosh to take home ROY honors. Frankly, I think the league's incoming talent merits having an entire All-Rookie team - it's that good. |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-11-16 02:27 PM - Post#210356
Lindys is picking H's Chris Lewis. Yale's Bruner is better than Blake Reynolds and Eric Anderson? I don't know, you'd have to tell me. Also, how's Jones on playing freshman?
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
09-11-16 02:37 PM - Post#210357
I think Bruner will be the second best player on that team at any position behind Makai. |
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6418 |
09-11-16 09:54 PM - Post#210360
Bruner fits right in with Harvard's recruits -- probably borderline top 100 in the nation, definitely top 150. He'd be one of the highest rated Ivy recruits in recent memory, though that is true of a handful of guys coming in this year (none of whom are in Dartmouth's class, though Carter and Sistare seem like very good Ivy gets in a normal year). Will Jones play a freshman? Justin Sears played 650 minutes and averaged about 10ppg and 5+ rebounds. Mason played over 500. There probably won't be an opportunity for a Boudreaux or Morgan type season, but those were the greatest statistical rookie season's in league history. Getting back to Sears, he may be a good comp. I think Bruner is significantly more highly regarded than Sears was coming into the league, but obviously with hindsight we can now say that odds are that Sears will turn out to be the better college player. Finally, I agree that Reynolds could get in the way here. I think there is room for Bruner, Downey, and Reynolds to all play 25 mpg splitting the two front court spots. Dartmouth's lineup is murkier to me with a new coach. Obviously Boudreaux is the focal point. Wright will play big minutes too. After that, the new coach may have different preferences from Cormier among the returnees and newcomers. |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-12-16 03:38 PM - Post#210367
mrjames Someguy On paper what are your projected line-ups for the Ivies this season?
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hoopla Masters Student Posts 486 |
09-14-16 01:26 PM - Post#210423
1) yes, but tougher with Syani back 2) no, not only bc of Bruner and Brodeur, among many others, but bc it will be--as it should be--largely about Evan, and so there won't be room for one of the (very good) Dartmouth incomers to shine how 3) ABSOLUTELY. Failure here would be big failure in my humble Dartmouth-based opinion I think our toughest spot is PG Cam has improved vastly, but still is more of a solid back up Fleming is more steady and is tough, so while the ceiling is not super high, I don't think he kills us. Plus he hits open J so you have to guard him 2 guard/3 spot Sistare is the man and a straight up winner/team guy Guilin Smith is going to have a break out year, he is so athletic, potent offensively (though didn't shoot great last year) and a talented defender Taylor Johnson had a break out second half of year and with added strength from off season won't allow opponents to take it from him as much Miles Wright--ROY and very good ivy player 4/5 Wesley Fickinson WILL emerge this year (maturity, defense, rebounding, blocks, high percentage around basket)... He is going to be GOOD unless new coach opts to go different direction Boudreaux-- STAR! Ian Carter -- highly touted frosh Possible other contributors Cole Harrison (talented but lacks stamina) Other freshmen? Barry at PG? The above gets us in the top 4, unless there are unforeseen injuries, setbacks, challenges (like Mitola transfer) |
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6418 |
09-14-16 04:11 PM - Post#210425
That's a big difficult question. Huge caveats here that I'm just guessing, and that I'm a Penn fan first and foremost (and probably won't even come close to Penn's starting lineup). And as you can see from the Yale discussion above, there are lots of positions for lots of teams where who plays appears very uncertain from outside. But my guesses: Princeton: Brase, Caruso, Weisz, Cook, Bell Yale: Downey, Reynolds, Oni, Dallier, Mason Penn: Rothschild, Howard, MacDonald, Donahue, Silpe Brown: Fuller, Spieth, Okolie, Hobbie, Blackmon Cornell: Onuorah, Abdur Ra-oof, Smith, Morgan, Hatter Dartmouth: Harrison, Boudreaux, Wright, Johnson, Smith Columbia: Petrasek, Meisner, Castlin, Hickman, Davis Harvard: Edosomwan, Egi, Johnson, Miller, Chambers I assume 2 freshmen will be starting for Harvard very quickly (perhaps immediately), but I'll go with the vets to start the season. I also thought initially that Earl wouldn't play Hatter and Morgan together so much, but it looks like they were still the two leading scorers by a lot over the summer, so I may be wrong about that (I'd still play Hatter less, though!). Princeton's top 8 should be really, really good, and I could see just about anybody in that group coming off the bench (so add Miller, Cannady, and Stephens to my starting 5). Haber or someone from the field could start over Hobbie. Petrasek and Howard are probably the only locks for Columbia and Penn. Anyway, feel free to tell me why I'm wrong, or refer back to this to point out how I have no idea what i'm talking about once the season starts. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2702 |
09-14-16 04:58 PM - Post#210427
Thanks very much SomeGuy for getting it started. A few observations: Columbia: Could start Coby over one of the guards. Neither Meisner nor Petrasek play near the basket, certainly not on offense. Also note that the Columbia board suggested about a month ago that a starter may be out of the season. Harvard: I don't see Johnson and Miller playing together often. They are each SG's and 3 point threats. Having one of them in the game when Siyani sits is important. Also, neither of them rebounds or plays defense at the level Harvard aspires to. This would open up a spot for either Bryce Aiken or Justin Bassey. Egi would have to make significant improvements to start. Seth Towns (6'7") brings a lot offensively and Chris Lewis (6'8") was the highest ranked of the class. Even if the freshmen don't start initially, I expect at least two or three of them to be in the starting lineup by tournament time. Penn: The lineup you predict will get crushed on the boards and teams will drive to the hoop with impunity. It's essentially 4 guards and Rothschild. There is no one to defend the rim. Haven't looked hard enough to know if there is any defensive/rebounding size on the roster other than Brodeur. Yale: Bruner? Cornell: Likely the freshman PF will be needed to spell Onourah, so you're probably spot on. This exercise underscored for me the dominance of Princeton and Harvard this year. Teams like Penn, Brown, Cornell and Dartmouth will be hard pressed to match up around the basket and to rebound. Princeton is really impressive and deep. On the other hand, Harvard having the best PG and C in the league as seniors shouldn't be underestimated. I was recently reminded that ESPN ranked Siyani as the 36th best player in college basketball entering his junior season! There is a chance both Siyani and Zena are among the top 15 or so at their positions. It's much easier for the bigs when the PG creates and penetrates and any defensive liabilities are well compensated for when there is a true rim defender - at least I'm hoping! |
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6418 |
09-14-16 05:22 PM - Post#210430
Funny -- I just addressed the same Columbia theory on their board. I think Petrasek/Meisner/Coby together is too big for our league, in a sense. I don't think they'll be able to defend the types of perimeter players they'll generally have to defend. So while I think Coby could start over Meisner, I doubt he starts over a guard. On the Penn thing, unfortunately you can't really come up with a clear better rebounding alternative among the returnees. After Rothschild, Howard is the next best rebounder, despite his size. He got about 6 per game despite playing as a very undersized 4 most of last year. So I suspect we'll live with it. MacDonald has some size and should rebound better than our guards did last year. Agreed that Brodeur has a big opportunity to solve this issue. However, Howard will need to shoot the 3 better to play the 3 for Donahue, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Generally agree on Harvard. Johnson's size makes him a little different from Miller, even if his strengths and weaknesses may otherwise be similar. My guess is that Miller is the first one forced to the bench. For Egi, it's kind of now or never. If the freshmen surpass him immediately, it's not like he gets to play later down the line. I assume 2 freshman are starting by January with Edosomwan and Chambers. 5th spot could be a lot of different guys. I view Bruner similarly. My guess is that he is starting by January. However, he's slight, and i'm guessing that Downey will be a top interior player in the league this year. Between Mason, Downey, and Dallier, I think they'll be able to bring Bruner along a little more slowly. That could cut both ways, of course -- it's kind of a good spot for a talented freshman if he can come in and start, play a lot, but not have to immediately carry the load. As a Penn fan, it reminds me of the situation Ugonna Onyekwe came into (a long time ago now). |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2702 |
09-14-16 05:31 PM - Post#210432
Thanks. In all fairness, Penn may only have size issues with Harvard and Princeton. Columbia's bigs tend to play away from the basket, but could still be trouble. Otherwise, there isn't much size in the league this year. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
09-14-16 06:12 PM - Post#210435
I don't really chase down starting lineups at this point, because inevitably key pieces will be announced to be out for weeks or months or the year and everything will change over the next two months. I will say this, though. I feel pretty good about Bruner starting from day one. Oni and Reynolds will be in the rotation and Reynolds will probably see near-starter-like minutes. I'll put my money on Trey Phills. I'd set the over-under on SomeGuy's Harvard starters at 2.5. A lot will depend on what Harvard can get away with defensively. Ideally, they'd go Chambers, Aiken, Johnson, Towns, Edosomwan, but against bigger teams them might have to slide Towns to three, insert Lewis at the 4 and possibly make Johnson the two instead of Aiken. The good news is that Harvard will have the ability to match up a lot of different ways... the bad news is it makes it hard to predict starters. I'd be stunned if Brodeur didn't start for Penn. |
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Silver Maple Postdoc Posts 3783 |
09-14-16 06:26 PM - Post#210436
I'd be stunned if Brodeur didn't start for Penn. I agree. That would be a surprise. He's as highly rated a freshman as we've had in a long while, and Penn has very few (almost no) quality frontcourt players. He may not start from day 1, but will probably be starting by 8 games in. Unless, of course, the Amazing Out-of-Nowhere Colin McManus Story happens. |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-14-16 09:41 PM - Post#210445
Yale: Makai Mason Trey Phills Anthony Dallier Jordan Bruner Sam Downey
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3590 |
09-14-16 11:02 PM - Post#210446
I'd be stunned if Brodeur didn't start for Penn. I wouldn't be stunned. A little surprised but no where near stunned. Donahue is going to play 3-4 guards and Rothschild has a big advantage over Brodeur in experience in the system. I suspect AJ will be a major contributor but Donahue likes to start experienced guys. |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-15-16 12:28 AM - Post#210449
Princeton: Spencer Weisz Devin Cannady Henry Caruso Steven Cook Pete Miller
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-15-16 12:37 AM - Post#210450
Columbia: Kyle Castlin Nate Hickman Lukas Meisner Jeff Coby Luke Petrasek
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-15-16 12:45 AM - Post#210451
Brown: Tavon Blackmon Obi Okolie JR Hobbie Steven Spieth Travis Fuller
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-15-16 12:51 AM - Post#210452
Penn: Jake Silpe Jackson Donahue Matt Howard Sam Jones A.J. Brodeur
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-15-16 12:56 AM - Post#210453
Cornell: Robert Hatter Darryl Smith Matt Morgan Jordan Abdur-Ra'oof David Onuorah
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-15-16 01:08 AM - Post#210454
Harvard: Siyani Chambers Corey Johnson Seth Towns Chris Lewis Zena Edosomwan
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-15-16 01:19 AM - Post#210455
Dartmouth: Cameron Smith Taylor Johnson Miles Wright Ian Carter Evan Boudreaux
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Go Green PhD Student Posts 1156 |
09-15-16 07:54 AM - Post#210456
In the Miles Wright era Dartmouth has never finished behind Cornell or Brown. Can they do it again this year? I appreciate that we haven't competed for the title in a while (to put it charitably). But I, for one, have a very hard time getting excited about the "goal" of finishing sixth. When you set goals that low, you're kind of dampening enthusiasm, rather than promoting it. |
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6418 |
09-15-16 10:36 AM - Post#210465
Man, everybody is on this 3 bigs lineup for Columbia. If that happens, I will eat Kendall Jackson. |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-15-16 11:03 AM - Post#210467
IMO that at worst is the baseline. Finishing 4th or higher with a better than .500 record in my mind is near term goal, with the ultimate goal of going to the big dance. Honestly though, it was not easy to find "3" things that could be consecutive benchmarks. But you're right, Let's get excited!!! Let's bring some life to this Dartmouth Big Green message board. Lawd knows I'm trying.
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Go Green PhD Student Posts 1156 |
09-15-16 11:38 AM - Post#210468
Lawd knows I'm trying. No argument there. But football is about to begin. 
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hoopla Masters Student Posts 486 |
09-18-16 10:17 AM - Post#210530
GBGB How is freshman Ian Carter looking? I believe he was the first commit of a good class capped by Sistare. I see you have him above Dickinson in the starting 5 |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-18-16 06:40 PM - Post#210533
Dunno how anyone is doing really. If anyone is on the ground there it would be nice to know how things are going. My line-up based on some comparative guesstimations. I compared KenPom data to the projections of the three college ball previews and some other random online CBB sites. The only two I am really certain of are Evan and Miles. I gave Carter the nod because his name was one to watch in a couple of season previews. But Wesley played 23% of the PF minutes behind Evan, and he is a senior so he is likely to be the starter.
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6418 |
09-19-16 11:36 AM - Post#210546
Where do you get the stat that Dickinson played 23% of PF minutes? |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-19-16 01:38 PM - Post#210547
It might be usage at position and not minutes but the data comes from Kenpom.com. I've been a subscriber for quite some time. Very good info, highly recommend.
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-19-16 01:44 PM - Post#210548
Here's the breakdown per KP 2015-16: Depth chart over the last 5 games (at PF): 12 Evan Boudreaux 6-8 220 Fr 48% 21 Wesley Dickinson 6-7 215 Jr 23% 0 Tommy Carpenter 6-7 215 Sr 17% 25 Brandon McDonnell 6-8 215 Sr 7%
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
09-19-16 02:01 PM - Post#210550
KP infers the position from the composition of stats a player puts up in the context of the lineup on the floor at the time. Also the lineup stats are a five-game look back only, so that could explain things... |
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6418 |
09-19-16 02:06 PM - Post#210551
Wow, that's great -- i had no idea he had that level of granular info on the pay site. I take it that Dickinson played a higher percentage of available frontcourt minutes than Harrison did? That's probably the question among the returnees -- does Boudreaux play the 5 with Dickinson, or does he play the 4 with Harrison. |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-19-16 02:23 PM - Post#210553
Harrison played only 4.1% of the minutes last year. He was a DNP in 11 of the 28 games and only played 57 mins total on the year. In the VT game the data suggests he had two PF in under a min, as the stat line list 0 Mins played two PFs and no DNP notation.
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-19-16 02:29 PM - Post#210555
Last year it was basically Boehm at the 5 with Boudreaux backing him up.
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-19-16 02:33 PM - Post#210557
The following guys were designated as follows by KP: "Benchwarmers (played in fewer than 10% of team's minutes)" 21 Wesley Dickinson 6-7 215 Jr 21 8 .1% Mins 23 Quinten Payne 6-5 200 Jr 13 4.6% Mins 5 Matt Rennie 6-8 225 Sr 13 4.2% Mins 44 Cole Harrison 6-11 245 Jr 16 4 .1% Mins
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-19-16 02:35 PM - Post#210559
KP does also show starting Line-ups going back 10 games. Which is nice.
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hoopla Masters Student Posts 486 |
09-19-16 05:32 PM - Post#210574
Harrison just has never been able to get healthy Dickinson is great in every way other than offensive polish But that's ok bc he never shoots and only dunks or takes gimmies We don't need him to be a threat offensively with Boudreaux taking a ton of shots and miles Wright and others strong usage numbers Dickinson will be among the leagues best shot blockers, defenders, and a good rebounder too |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-19-16 08:33 PM - Post#210585
according to Kevin Whitaker's over at NYC Buckets the Big Green could use another shot blocker and rebounder with Boehm graduated. But Boehm could also score.
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SRP Postdoc Posts 4921 |
09-20-16 03:39 AM - Post#210596
I really liked Boehm's game. Dartmouth may miss him. |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-20-16 10:03 AM - Post#210601
[mrjames] Have you or anyone in this forum purchased the "Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook" and/or "The Basketball Times"?
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
09-20-16 11:27 AM - Post#210604
I've heard great things about Blue Ribbon, but no I don't tend to purchase those annuals. If you're so inclined, though, people tend to have lots of things to say about the Blue Ribbon one. |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-20-16 11:29 AM - Post#210607
Thanks. I'll check it out and let you know my findings. It should be out sometime in Oct.
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hoopla Masters Student Posts 486 |
09-20-16 01:42 PM - Post#210612
Whitaker does awesome post game breakdowns Using analysis to find and tell the core story(s) within each game I'm not sure he's close enough to the Big Green program to be the expert on what our needs are For example, I don't think he is close enough to see what we have in Dickinson, perhaps bc he goes by what transpires in game stats only (I think) The Big Green is climbing, but we don't have our own beat writer yet! (The Valley News coverage is not going to bring any Pulitzer Prizes) What the hoops team needs is Big Green Alert like what The football team has Bruce Wood's in depth coverage is superb |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
09-20-16 03:51 PM - Post#210618
If they had the Big Green Alert for basketball. I'd be one happy fan.
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