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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
12-14-16 09:53 AM - Post#215801
Paul Cormier's first year in Hanover was a -17.28 SRS (think of it as efficiency margin). McLaughlin is currently at -17.09 SRS. So from that angle, one might make the argument that you need to give him time - Cormier churned out great results in two stints in Hanover after that rough start. BUT... When Cormier took over, Dartmouth had five straight seasons of negative, double-digit SRS immediately preceding his hire (an average of about -14). When McLaughlin took over, Dartmouth was coming off its 2nd, 4th and 5th best showings of the AI era. I'll never understand why Cormier was let go. I didn't understand it when I heard the rumblings during the season. I didn't get it when I had to begrudgingly predict it was going to happen. And it still didn't make sense after it happened. It's extremely early to judge the decision a complete failure, but if you're a Bayesian who had very pessimistic priors going into this season, the early evidence has done nothing but solidify that view. |
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