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Username Post: Ivy Title/Tourney Odds
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
01-13-17 12:39 PM - Post#218166    

Finally got a moment to fire up the old R script and (with some changes to account for needing to know order not just winner) here's where we stand:

Share/Solo Title Odds
share solo
brown 0% 0%
columbia 2% 1%
cornell 0% 0%
dartmouth 0% 0%
harvard 25% 12%
penn 9% 3%
princeton 65% 43%
yale 30% 14%

That makes a fair deal of sense. Since I run this off KP, and KP is still adding some sort of bias to the results when it comes to stickiness of his rankings, Princeton remains far ahead of where it is in other ranking systems. Add to that the fact that an average difficulty game has been passed with a win and it's no wonder that the Tigers are a decent-sized favorite.

Penn would be a bit closer to Harvard and Yale, but obviously starting 0-1 (even with it being the most difficult Ivy game on every team's schedule) knocks it down a little bit.

Worth noting as well that, at present, we have about 27% odds of two teams tying for the number one seed.

Average Exp Wins By Team:
avgwins
brown 4.7
columbia 6.1
cornell 4.8
dartmouth 3.5
harvard 9.0
penn 8.0
princeton 10.5
yale 9.2

Here we start to see the Top 4/Bottom 4 gap in more concrete, tourney-relevant stats. Columbia is clearly the leader of the chase pack, but is still 1.9 expected wins behind Penn. That's only slightly less than the gap between Penn and first (2.5 wins).

Top 4 finish odds and overall tourney odds:
first second third fourt h tourneyodds
brown 0% 1% 2% 6% 9%
columbia 1% 4% 8% 17% 29%
cornell 0% 1% 3% 8% 11%
dartmouth 0% 0% 1% 1% 2%
harvard 18% 27% 26% 19% 8 9%
penn 6% 15% 26% 26% 72%
princeton 54% 26% 12% 6% 98%
yale 21% 27% 24% 18% 90%

And now the gap is really clear. Harvard, Princeton and Yale are all at 90%+ to make the tourney, while Penn remains at a solid 72%. Columbia has a decent shot at near 30%, while Cornell and Brown are down near 10%. Dartmouth has already lost an average to slightly-below-average game on its schedule, so it's really, really in a deep hole.

Finally, the wins required for fourth place:
5 6 7 8 9 10
0.003 0.074 0.335 0.450 0.134 0.004

Right now, it looks like 7-7 or 8-6 is going to be the most likely fourth seed record.

NOW, the fun part. How might some weekend scenarios affect the tourney odds:

Penn loses to Yale (other weekend games remain at same odds):

Penn drops to 64% to make the tourney, while Yale vaults up to 96% (breaking on the road amongst the Top 4 is going to be HUGE this year in terms of solidifying one's spot).

Penn beats Yale (all else equal):

Penn's tourney odds rise to 82%, while Yale's fall only a little bit to 87%. More importantly, the odds of the chase pack all fall a little (starting out with a loss makes Penn the most vulnerable to falling out and winning a Top 4 game will solidify their chances). Meanwhile, it becomes slightly more likely that it's going to take 8-6 not 7-7 to claim the final tourney spot.

Yale sweeps:
Yale rises to 98% to make the tourney and becomes the odds on favorite to win at least a share of the title (59%). Princeton still is in great shape (96%) to make the tourney. Obviously Penn remains at around ~64% to make the tourney.

Yale gets swept:
It's a tough roadie, so Yale is still in decent shape (82%) to make the tourney. Princeton is essentially a lock (99.3%). Penn is in good shape as well (80%). Harvard remains pretty much unaffected at 87%.

What the bottom four want:
Any scenarios that cause separation amongst the Top 4 are welcome. The WORST case scenario for the bottom four is that the top 4 comes darn close to splitting with each other. While that would be the best scenario for sneaking away with the title, it's also the worst scenario for making the path to fourth easier. Thus, as we progress throughout this year, the bottom four will want to see a dominant Princeton team and one of the other Top 4 be dominant as well, to push down the 3rd/4th place win totals closer to 7 or even under.

Happy to run any other scenarios as well!
Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts 3614
Mike Porter
01-13-17 08:21 PM - Post#218199    

Very cool and interesting to see those various scenarios. Would love to see this as the season goes on.
Columbia Alum
Junior
Posts 247
01-14-17 01:48 PM - Post#218270    

This analysis is great, helps quantify what many of us have been feeling. Would love to see a couple updates through the ivy season, thanks!
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
01-14-17 01:59 PM - Post#218272    

It is indeed interesting analysis. If I understand the analysis correctly, there are three teams with a reasonably chance to win the regular season and draw a #1 seed. There are two teams with a reasonable chance to draw the #4 seed. Based on the numbers and obviously things can change with injuries and other factors, there are five teams in the mix to get into the IL playoffs that will ultimately decide the NCAA bid. Three of the teams will statistically have a high percentage of winning the IL Tournament, I assume.

Which will be more challenging -- win the IL regular season or the IL tournament?? Different question as to what is the right way to decide which team goes to the NCAA tournament.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1871
01-14-17 11:37 PM - Post#218356    

Mike, It looks like you (or KenPom's computer) got a little ahead of yourself anointing Penn the #4 team. Did you run the scenario of the Quacker's racing out to an 0-3 start and just not share for fear of suffering their fan's wrath?
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
01-15-17 10:03 AM - Post#218382    

Odds update:

Tourney odds (make; semiL, finalL, bid):
BRN - 29%; 24%, 4%, 1%
COL - 43%; 33%, 8%, 3%
COR - 12%; 10%, 1%, 0%
DAR - 2%; 2%, 0%, 0%
HAR - 92%; 51%, 23%, 18%
PENN - 27%; 15%, 6%, 6%
PRN - 99%; 28%, 27%, 44%
YALE - 96%; 37%, 32%, 28%

Wins by the 5th place team across all simulations:
8 - 5%
7 - 28%
6 - 50%
5 - 17%
4 - 0.5%

Wins by the 4th place team across all simulations:
9 - 7%
8 - 33%
7 - 45%
6 - 15%
5 - 0.3%

Top playoff group odds:
1) COL, HAR, PRN, YALE - 35%
2) BRN, HAR, PRN, YALE - 22%
3) HAR, PENN, PRN, YALE - 20%
4) COR, HAR, PRN, YALE - 9%
Columbia Alum
Junior
Posts 247
01-15-17 10:35 AM - Post#218386    

Thank you for the update! Still looks wide open among the bottom 5 to make the tourney. Personally, I would increase Dartmouths odds a little, because they've improved since their awful start to '16-'17.
Bryan
Junior
Posts 231
01-15-17 02:10 PM - Post#218402    

Is Penn treated as a home team or a neutral team in the Ivy playoffs?
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
01-15-17 02:33 PM - Post#218403    

I treat them as a full home team.
dperry
Postdoc
Posts 2211
dperry
01-16-17 12:55 PM - Post#218483    

Looking at the historical record, since the league went to eight teams in 1953-54, here's what the fourth-place teams have done (number in parenthesis is the number of times there was a tie in which someone would have been eliminated):

5 wins: 1 time (1), 1.59%
6 wins: 10 times (6), 17.46%
7 wins: 30 times (11), 47.62%
8 wins: 12 times (2), 19.05%
9 wins: 9 times (0), 14.29%

Total: 62 seasons. Average: 7.29 wins

Note: in '62-'63, Cornell finished in 4th at 6-7; their second game with Columbia was snowed out twice and not made up. I've thrown that year out here.

The women have been similar, albeit shifted slightly higher (went to eight teams in 1986-87):

6 wins: 2 times (2), 6.67%
7 wins: 13 times (5), 43.33%
8 wins: 12 times (1), 40.00%
9 wins: 2 times (0), 6.67%
10 wins: 1 time (0), 3.33%

Total: 30 seasons. Average: 7.57 wins

So realistically, you need eight wins to have a good shot at making the cut (80%-85% of the time after allowing for tiebreakers.) Seven wins looks like it's less than 50-50 after considering ties.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!"

GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 805
01-16-17 01:02 PM - Post#218485    

That's easy enough to understand.
"...no excuses - only results!”

mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
01-16-17 04:33 PM - Post#218524    

For Penn, seven is a little better than 50/50 and that's when I'm just randomizing ties.

I haven't programmed in the tiebreaker rules, though I do know that Penn is going to win the third tiebreaker (ratings) if it gets there. RPI, Sagarin, KenPom, BPI are all considered and unless BPI is wildly out of sync with Sagarin and KenPom, Penn should only lose that tiebreaker to Columbia if Columbia is wildly unlucky at arriving at the same Ivy record as Penn (i.e. Columbia has a huge +MOV and Penn has a huge -MOV and both finish with the same record).

Now, before I give Penn the huge tiebreaker advantage, it's worth noting that if the Quakers lose at Brown, they'll lose the first tiebreaker (H2H) if they end up in a tie with the Bears. That being said, it's not all that much of a stretch that, if two teams end up tied for fourth, it'll come down to that ratings tiebreaker. Last year, if Harvard hadn't beaten Princeton and thus finished tied for 4th at 5-9 with Penn, the ratings tiebreaker would have been the deciding factor.

Also, it's important to note that how many wins it'll take for fourth depends on how good you think Harvard is. If Harvard is good enough to, like last year (or 2010), be a third team nabbing double-digit Ivy wins and the bottom of the league isn't awful, there are going to be a lot of teams sitting in that 4-6 win bin, meaning that 6-8 could get it done.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
01-24-17 12:01 PM - Post#219203    

Interesting statistics as to projecting W-L record for 4th seed based on history. Based on the team forum pages, there is a considerable amount of interest regarding which team will secure the 4th seed, partially due to active boards by several of these teams over the years. Less so, regarding which team will secure the #1 seed -- simply a different dynamic than prior years prior to the introduction of the IL Tournament and format. There may be 2 to 3 teams fighting for the 4th seed towards year-end and the same may true for the 1 seed.

There is theoretically some benefit in getting the #1 seed based on 1 playing 4 as well what seed a team would receive for the NCAA tournament if they win the IL tournament. Plus, players and coaches simply do not like to lose. Coaches may employ a different strategy towards the end of the year based on where the team sits.

I am not sure what would be the dynamic if all eight teams participated in the IL tournament.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
01-24-17 02:48 PM - Post#219214    

Interesting perspective. Seems weird that the focus is on 4th place. Sort of like NHL hockey. Last year, the most meaningful final weekend game was Harvard beating Princeton (securing the title for Yale), not Harvard beating Penn (for 4th place at 6-8). Would be reversed this year.

Without a tournament, the HYP competition would have been fierce this year. Not as much now. Ticket sales for Harvard at Princeton the final weekend look to be weak. Somewhat understandable considering the possibility that they could face each other again the following weekend at the Palestra.

If all 8 teams participated in the tournament, there would be no real competition as no one would be facing elimination.




Okoro Dude
Senior
Posts 309
01-24-17 04:17 PM - Post#219230    

Attendance at Princeton basketball games is low because overall interest in Princeton basketball is low (at least compared to the past when they consistently drew bigger crowds) - not because there is a tournament.

The fact that people are talking/speculating about probabilities of finishing in the top four (instead of conceding their season after losing a few games early Ivy games) is evidence that the tournament is generating more interest in the regular season league-wide.

Maybe it's me, but Yale clinching a title through Princeton losing to a non-contending team hundreds of miles away doesn't seem more exciting than a head-to-head matchup between the last two contenders in a tournament title game - winner take all.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
01-24-17 05:18 PM - Post#219237    

I was on the Lavietes floor two years ago with players, media and a few fans, watching Yale lose in the final seconds of the season at Dartmouth. That was exciting!
Okoro Dude
Senior
Posts 309
01-25-17 02:10 PM - Post#219304    

I was in the Palestra later in the week with 7,000 people watching Harvard and Yale play a winner-take-all game. That was more exciting.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
01-25-17 04:20 PM - Post#219326    

Completely agree. I started covering the league at the end of the Penn-Princeton duopoly, so pardon the lack of historical perspective in this take, but I was there in 2011 when Harvard clinched a share for the first time versus Penn and Princeton and the atmosphere at Lavietes was electric. But the playoff a week later was a completely different level.

2013 was just weird, standing around as Princeton got swept on the I-95 roadie.

That 2015 environment at The Palestra was insane as well.

I've been to some good live Ivy games, but none can compare to the 2011 and 2015 playoffs.
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
01-25-17 10:04 PM - Post#219441    

Mike -- any chance you can update the odds after this past weekend's games?
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
01-26-17 10:09 AM - Post#219489    

Apologies - this is straight out of R so it's not terribly clean, but the data is here...

Four-team pairings:
teams counts
1 ,,,,harvard,princeton,pen n,yale 0.322
9 ,columbia,,,harvard,princ eton,,yale 0.238
17 brown,,,,harvard,princeto n,,yale 0.204
5 ,,cornell,,harvard,prince ton,,yale 0.138
7 ,columbia,,,,princeton,pe nn,yale 0.021
15 brown,,,,,princeton,penn, yale 0.015
22 brown,columbia,,,,princet on,,yale 0.012
4 ,,cornell,,,princeton,pen n,yale 0.009
2 ,,,dartmouth,harvard,prin ceton,,yale 0.008
12 ,columbia,cornell,,,princ eton,,yale 0.007
19 brown,,cornell,,,princeto n,,yale 0.007
10 ,columbia,,,harvard,princ eton,penn, 0.004
3 ,,,dartmouth,harvard,prin ceton,penn, 0.002
25 brown,columbia,,,harvard, princeton,, 0.002
6 ,,cornell,,harvard,prince ton,penn, 0.001
8 ,columbia,,,harvard,,penn ,yale 0.001
11 ,columbia,,dartmouth,harv ard,princeton,, 0.001
13 ,columbia,cornell,,harvar d,,,yale 0.001
14 ,columbia,cornell,,harvar d,princeton,, 0.001
16 brown,,,,harvard,,penn,ya le 0.001
18 brown,,,,harvard,princeto n,penn, 0.001
20 brown,,cornell,,harvard,, ,yale 0.001
21 brown,,cornell,,harvard,p rinceton,, 0.001
23 brown,columbia,,,,princet on,penn, 0.001
24 brown,columbia,,,harvard, ,,yale 0.001


Summary table:
share solo avgwins Upper95 Lower95 first second third fourth teams
1 0.004 0.000 5.592 8.51 2.67 0.001 0.011 0.047 0.187 brown
2 0.006 0.002 5.841 8.85 2.83 0.003 0.014 0.058 0.215 columbia
3 0.001 0.000 5.153 8.06 2.25 0.000 0.007 0.032 0.127 cornell
4 0.000 0.000 2.988 5.70 0.28 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.010 dartmouth
5 0.209 0.106 9.173 12.24 6.10 0.165 0.228 0.416 0.119 harvard
6 0.004 0.001 6.179 9.08 3.27 0.002 0.012 0.066 0.298 penn
7 0.641 0.436 10.878 13.61 8.15 0.522 0.315 0.140 0.018 princeton
8 0.403 0.223 10.196 12.87 7.52 0.307 0.413 0.240 0.026 yale

Ivy Tourney table:
teams tourneyodds playoffOLD semiL finalL bid
1 brown 0.246 0.232 0.198 0.038 0.010
2 columbia 0.290 0.232 0.212 0.059 0.019
3 cornell 0.166 0.232 0.137 0.024 0.005
4 dartmouth 0.011 0.232 0.010 0.001 0.000
5 harvard 0.928 0.232 0.516 0.243 0.169
6 penn 0.378 0.232 0.199 0.097 0.082
7 princeton 0.995 0.232 0.347 0.260 0.388
8 yale 0.986 0.232 0.381 0.278 0.327

Ws for fourth:
5 6 7 8 9 10
0.012 0.174 0.449 0.318 0.046 0.001

Ws for fifth:
4 5 6 7 8
0.006 0.178 0.523 0.268 0.025

Odds of tie for fourth by number of wins for fourth:
9 - 0%
8 - 7%
7 - 31%
6 - 74%
5 - 100%
JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts 357
01-26-17 10:38 AM - Post#219495    

I have attended probably a half dozen Ivy playoff games going back to Princeton-Columbia at St. John's in the late 1960's. McMillian vs. Petrie. McMillian won. The atmosphere at all of them was unbelievably intense, none more than Harvard-Yale at The Palestra. I am looking forward to full houses for two days and a lot of fun. As one of the last holdouts for The 14 Game Tournament I confess I can't wait for March 11.
Go Green
PhD Student
Posts 1124
01-26-17 01:47 PM - Post#219521    

  • JadwinGeorge Said:
. The atmosphere at all of them was unbelievably intense.



That's usually the case for tournament finals in conferences that historically have sent only one team to the NCAA.

I think we're in for a treat, too.
Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2801
01-26-17 02:56 PM - Post#219531    

The best argument for the Tournament is that it gives MRJ more opportunities to crank the numbers for us.
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
01-30-17 06:34 PM - Post#219937    

If I had to guess, Columbia surpasses Penn this week for 4th, and Brown and Harvard drop the most.
cc66
Postdoc
Posts 2201
01-30-17 06:53 PM - Post#219944    

https://twitter.com/YaleSportsGroup/statu s/8257913...

Yale Sports Analytics now posts the probabilities as Columbia 61.1%, Penn 31.8%, and Brown, 12.3%, meaning that Columbia is just about twice as likely as Penn to make the tournament.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
01-30-17 06:57 PM - Post#219945    

Interesting that Brown is at 12% and trails Penn (31%). Brown has played the toughest schedule (Yale 2x, Princeton, Penn), 3 of 4 games on the road, and beat Penn at Penn.


SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
01-30-17 08:06 PM - Post#219959    

The amount of the jump for Columbia surprises me, though the model may be different from Mike's, so maybe they had a higher chance than 27% in this model entering the weekend. I would have thought that the most likely scenario was that Columbia would split and be 2-2, and that would keep them around 27. The extra win is big, but the jump seems bigger.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
01-30-17 08:09 PM - Post#219960    

Posted mine at @ivybball on Sunday morning. Sorry I didn't repost here - you can find them there though.

I am, indeed, less bullish than Yale Sports Analytics. Don't know their methodology, though I'm sure it's posted somewhere. Mine are just KP's numbers simulated out over the season.
Bryan
Junior
Posts 231
02-08-17 03:30 PM - Post#221013    

This is a follow-up to the data provided in the thread by David and uses the same 62 seasons he included. 62 years *8 teams = 496 data points.

Wins by Team,# ,#Top4 finishes, % Top 4 finishes
>8 171,171, 100%
8 30,27, 90%
7 61,38, 62%
6 55,11, 20%
5 50,1, 2%
<5 129,0, 0%
All 496,248, 50%

There were 19 times in the 62 seasons the 4th and 5th place teams had the same number of wins and 6 times that the 6th place team had the same number of wins as the 4th place team.

Bryan

mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
02-08-17 08:46 PM - Post#221049    

Columbia could basically seal up a spot by beating Princeton. Would be pretty much guaranteed the tiebreaker over Brown, making that a really, really tough hill for the Bears to climb...
Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts 3988
02-08-17 08:54 PM - Post#221052    

MJ, have you visited Providence? Brown sits atop a relatively steep (College) hill.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
02-08-17 10:33 PM - Post#221077    

Covered and attended a few games, and I've done that walk from the train station all the way up the hill. No bueno.
Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts 3988
02-09-17 12:29 PM - Post#221113    

If the courts are open, you can go into the Superior Court Building and take the elevator up to the fifth floor, and get out on Benefit Street.
clio
Freshman
Posts 7
02-19-17 07:06 PM - Post#222586    

After a 0-6 start, Kudos to the Penn Quackers for theIr recent recovery that has them in great position to win the tournament number four seed.

Boos to the Ivy League committee that created a Tournament that would give the last seeded team the home floor advantage. LUDICROUS.
Go Green
PhD Student
Posts 1124
02-19-17 10:14 PM - Post#222602    

  • clio Said:


Boos to the Ivy League committee that created a Tournament that would give the last seeded team the home floor advantage. LUDICROUS.



Yeah, damn those Ivy folks for not foreseeing that Penn might be the #4 seed.

Malpractice, I tell you. Malpractice!!!
westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts 196
02-19-17 10:21 PM - Post#222605    

"Boos to the Ivy League committee that created a Tournament that would give the last seeded team the home floor advantage. LUDICROUS."

What a whiner. I agree it's nuts, but It's Princeton's own fault for agreeing to a tournament at the Palestra. Penn would never have okayed a tournament at Jadwin.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21081
02-19-17 11:01 PM - Post#222616    

  • westphillywarrior Said:
"Boos to the Ivy League committee that created a Tournament that would give the last seeded team the home floor advantage. LUDICROUS."

What a whiner. I agree it's nuts, but It's Princeton's own fault for agreeing to a tournament at the Palestra. Penn would never have okayed a tournament at Jadwin.



So there were no objections before the season to Penn hosting the tournament, as long as it did not finish fourth?

Got it.

Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2801
02-19-17 11:11 PM - Post#222618    

You're right. We shouldn't have agreed to the whole nutty idea of the tournament in the first place! Especially in greasy Philly.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
02-20-17 09:20 AM - Post#222632    

I agree that no Ivy League school, AD, or Coach should ever criticize selecting the Palestra based on their voting for the Palestra andI do not believe that they have criticized the selection up to this point and time. A fan, who obviously had no vote has every right to criticize the site selection.

The Committee's decision makes sense if the primary focus of the IL Tournament is exposure/money --- big city, historic building --- good story line for ESPN. If the purpose was to send the team with an equal opportunity to win the tournament, the Palestra would certainly not have been selected -- neutral site. If the IL wanted the team that had a greater chance to represent the league competitively, there would have been no tournament or at the very least, the format would have been very different.

At the end of the day, let's see if the Tournament enhances the reputation of the league. It should achieve the goal of money/exposure. The League will live with the consequences and the fans can make up their own mind as to how they feel about the Tournament.
Go Green
PhD Student
Posts 1124
02-20-17 09:58 AM - Post#222635    

  • bradley Said:
At the end of the day, let's see if the Tournament enhances the reputation of the league. It should achieve the goal of money/exposure. The League will live with the consequences and the fans can make up their own mind as to how they feel about the Tournament.



It may or may not enhance the league rep.

But it's certainly accomplished the goal of keeping the fans whose teams are not in first place engaged in the season.

HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
02-20-17 10:43 AM - Post#222640    

What makes you think selection of the Palestra was unanimous? For that matter what makes you think the decision to hold a tournament was unanimous?
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32682
02-20-17 10:51 AM - Post#222641    

Well, we know that it was unanimous between H, Y and Pr because if any of those 3 opposes any Ivy move, it does not happen.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
02-20-17 12:25 PM - Post#222650    

And why would HYP want a tournament again?
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
02-20-17 12:33 PM - Post#222652    

Why wouldn't they?

Are you really asking everyone to rehash the same arguments we have seen on these boards for years now?

C'mon man!
JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts 357
02-20-17 12:37 PM - Post#222654    

I can report without hesitation that neither Henderson nor Banghart favored The Palestra as the site for the tournament. Neither had veto power over the selection. Once the decision was made to have the thing, the remaining logistical decisions were made by "the committee." No other site in the league offers the advantages available at Penn: plenty of hotel rooms and plenty of seating capacity. If Penn grabs the 4th spot (or 3rd for that matter) and then wins the thing I would imagine the league would be compelled to consider a neutral site next year.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
02-20-17 12:44 PM - Post#222656    

Quote from Steve Donahue last year:

"All the coaches agreed that one of the best things about this is the Palestra,'' Donahue said. "It's an incredible environment for a playoff. I like four teams. We have eight. We eliminate half the league. I think it's important that the regular season means a lot.''
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
02-20-17 12:52 PM - Post#222657    

I always love the desire to try to quash a different opinion, whether reasonable or not in your eyes.

There was a 3/10/16 article in philly.com that describes the decisions approved by the Ivy League Presidents based on a recommendation made by the Tournament Committee. Certainly, the selection of the Palestra was approved by the College Presidents. The writer interviewed the Penn AD and got some quotes on a series of topics including the format -- she sat on the tournament committee. Each school should live with the consequences of the inaugural site selection as it was approved subject to by-laws. Whether it was a good or bad decision is a different issue but it was an understandable one if money/exposure was the driver.

I did not realize that the Presidents approved that the regular season winner will be recognized as Ivy League Champion unlike some other conferences -- thank goodness. The tournament, as stated, is for the automatic bid.

My vote would have been cast for Timbukto or Pyongyang as the inaugural site.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
02-20-17 12:55 PM - Post#222658    

The decision to hold the tournament was unanimous at the coach and AD level and was 7-1 at the policy committee level. I don't know which vote was against in that committee.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32682
02-20-17 01:04 PM - Post#222660    

All I can tell you is that everyone but H-Y wants the Ivy football winner to go to the FCS championship and it never happens. So deduce what you will from that.
Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2801
02-20-17 01:16 PM - Post#222662    

I would guess that Penn coach, Steve Donahue's quote cited by Penn10 is about as credible as those by a recently elected Wharton grad
TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
02-20-17 01:35 PM - Post#222666    

  • HARVARDDADGRAD Said:
And why would HYP want a tournament again?


Thanks for being honest. It's refreshing. Because this is the question, none of the rest of us matter.

HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
02-20-17 02:06 PM - Post#222671    

I wonder if 'everyone' affected favored the tournament or, in the end, if they went along for unanimity's sake.

As for the Donahue quote, the regular season may mean "a lot" more than it used to for some teams, but it now matters far far less than it used to for the others. As for Donahue on the Palestra - again - sounds like a plug for unanimity in the face of no other legitimate option.

On location, it is idiotic to have one team host the tournament consistently on its campus, especially when that campus is a geographical border for the conference. This has nothing to do with whether the Palestra is the cathedral. It's just not how things should be done, especially in a sport where there is a substantiated home court advantage and exacerbated travel differences.

I'm not trying to undercut the fact that the tournament will be exciting. Just pick one of the narratives: (i) Penn becomes the 'hot' team following an amazing turnaround; (ii) Harvard's youth and depth play out in the end; (iii) Yale, given time, reverts to OOC form; or (iv) Princeton's tournament win vindicates that the 'best' team should win both the regular season and the tournament. It'll be fun, but the location shouldn't be on the southernmost campus every year.

On the other hand, I'm seriously on the fence about whether to bother attending Harvard's final road games this year.



TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
02-20-17 02:38 PM - Post#222675    

Traditionally the biggest opponents of a tournament have been Penn's fan base.

The Palestra is the only logical place for the tournament. The only other arena big enough to hold it is Jadwin but it's a weird layout.

I don't think there is a good off-site arena to have it either. Mike has offered the arena in Bridgeport as an alternative. Is anyone enthused about being stuck in Bridgeport for two days?

Other conferences hold their tournaments in the same place every year. Big East has had its tournament at MSG since forever even though it's a home court for St. John's.

Even though the Palestra is a no-brainer - it's historic, the best for TV, big enough, plenty of hotels nearby - I doubt the tournament will be there permanently because it's not Harvard's arena. Or even Yale's or Princeton's. And we all understand the league's politics. All colleges are equal, just some are more equal than others.

I wouldn't mind the league doing its best to ensure Penn doesn't have a home court advantage when it does make the tournament. Bend over backwards to provide fair access to tickets to all teams. We all have alumni who travel to games. I've been to games at Levien when it felt that there were as many Cornell fans as Columbia fans and it didn't feel like much of a home game.

HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
02-20-17 02:40 PM - Post#222676    

Equal?

Would it be equal to hold the tournament at Dartmouth or up in Boston - every year?
TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
02-20-17 02:44 PM - Post#222677    

If Leede was the best place to hold a tournament then I'd be all for it.

I'd love the tournament to be at Levien then have the ticket office over-allocate to the home team. There's no more hostile place to play in the league right now when it's packed with Lion fans.

bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
02-20-17 02:56 PM - Post#222678    

You make some valid points as there is no other place like the Palestra. It is a magnificent building with so much history. Offering up tickets to balance things out competitively is a nice thought but Stub Hub will be a very busy website as Penn fans purchase re-sale tickets. We all know that it will be buzzing for Penn fans if they make it; nothing wrong with that.

There is a competitive edge obviously as to knowing the rims, lighting, etc. Penn will have a competitive advantage due to familiarity. It is what it is --- welcome to the IL Tournament.
Go Green
PhD Student
Posts 1124
02-20-17 03:45 PM - Post#222682    


And let's be honest- if Princeton, Yale, or Harvard can't beat this Penn team in an Ivy tournament at the Palestra, then chances are they weren't going to advance in the NCAA.

This Penn team really shouldn't scare anyone. When/if Penn gets better, then we will talk about unfair advantages.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
02-20-17 04:50 PM - Post#222700    

Beating Penn on the road is about as difficult as beating Provy, Seton Hall or Vandy at home. Or Stanford, UConn or Memphis on a neutral floor.

Maybe not the scariest propositions in the world, but certainly those games would have my attention...
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32682
02-20-17 05:43 PM - Post#222710    

Of course, those last 3 teams are having down years.

Can you fill us in with the current playoff odds for the teams from Yale on down? What is the percentage chance of Penn getting up to 3rd and Yale falling out?
Go Green
PhD Student
Posts 1124
02-20-17 05:53 PM - Post#222715    

  • mrjames Said:
Beating Penn on the road is about as difficult as beating Provy, Seton Hall or Vandy at home. Or Stanford, UConn or Memphis on a neutral floor.

Maybe not the scariest propositions in the world, but certainly those games would have my attention...



If the numbers say that, I believe you. But I'm trying to find a real-world example where that played out this season. I'm not coming up with anything.

Providence absolutely destroyed Brown (albeit at home).

As we discussed briefly on the Dartmouth board, I'm not convinced that the numbers always translate well into what's actually happening. I still think that Princeton shouldn't be whining about "home court advantage" if they somehow lose to a 6-8 Penn team in the tourney.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4894
02-20-17 06:03 PM - Post#222718    

GG, that's ridiculous. The home-court advantage is roughly like being spotted a basket. Have you ever heard of close games?
DJ Jazzy Jeff
Freshman
Posts 58
02-20-17 06:17 PM - Post#222721    

The Big East is always at MSG - St. Johns plays there. The A10 is now at the Barclays Center - Very close to Fordham. The MAAC (although moved around a bit) is always best at the Times Union Center - Siena's home court. The ACC was always at Greensboro - very close to the NC teams and basically a home game for UNC.

What's wrong with having it at the Palestra which is the best venue and in a big city where hotels and other travel accommodations are readily available? Everybody wants "fair"... Life isn't fair, but the Palestra is the best option.

The only other suitable option is to expand the tournament and play the games at the higher seed. This is what the AE, Patriot, NEC and a few others do. Pick your poison...
Go Green
PhD Student
Posts 1124
02-20-17 06:18 PM - Post#222722    

  • SRP Said:
GG, that's ridiculous. The home-court advantage is roughly like being spotted a basket. Have you ever heard of close games?



If you want to lay money on the P-P game if Penn qualifies for the tournament, fine.

I'll take Princeton.
westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts 196
02-20-17 06:25 PM - Post#222724    

  • SRP Said:
GG, that's ridiculous. The home-court advantage is roughly like being spotted a basket. Have you ever heard of close games?



When I look at the Vegas betting lines, it's always seemed to me that the home court advantage is closer to two baskets,
(3-4 points).

HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
02-20-17 06:27 PM - Post#222725    

You could have 4 teams and a home court advantage. Friday night semi's at higher seeds and final Sunday at the higher seed.

You'd have at least a week to plan for the following weekend.

Since the league insists it's not about the money, then ticket sales shouldn't be an issue.


Go Green
PhD Student
Posts 1124
02-20-17 06:36 PM - Post#222727    

  • DJ Jazzy Jeff Said:

The only other suitable option is to expand the tournament and play the games at the higher seed.



A third option is to rotate the venue by region. That's pretty much what the Big 10 does.

Of course, it would suck if the tournament is in New England, and the qualifiers are the Ps and the Cs.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
02-20-17 07:00 PM - Post#222730    

Is that worse than having HY travel to Philly?
DJ Jazzy Jeff
Freshman
Posts 58
02-20-17 07:10 PM - Post#222733    

Yes it's worse. Who wants to go to Ithaca for an IL tournament because it's their turn to host? Travel to the games would look like the trip in Hoosiers with the family cars following the team bus to Indy...HICKORY!!!

The Palestra is the best venue. Unfortunately for some, it's Penn's home gym. However, the same goes for St. John's (and Syracuse for that matter - MSG), Siena (Times Union Center), Fordham (Barclays), and a few others. It's just how it is.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
02-20-17 07:15 PM - Post#222734    

The home court advantage in college basketball is usually pegged somewhere between 3-4 points. It has been declining recently as offenses shift in style toward less HCA-affected elements.

At 3-4 points the full home/road swing is 6-8 points or between 9-12 points of adjusted efficiency margin.
TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
02-20-17 07:15 PM - Post#222735    

Let's see how this one plays out - both at site and on TV. My feeling is that it's going to be great.

Jadwin is the closest competition to The Palestra for an on-campus tournament. The Palestra seats 2,000 more than Jadwin, is in a city (more hotels, transportation, dining, bars), and looks far better. The others aren't big enough to host a tournament.

Options are:
1) Host all games at home court of better seed. Only works if you resign yourself to the Ivy tournament never growing. Would not work well when we go to an 8 team tournament.

2) Have only the final at The Palestra. Would make the years in which Dartmouth hosts a semi difficult enough to mean a Friday-Sunday tournament. Would work as poorly as option 1) in a 8 team tournament.

3) Off-site tournament. What's the best we can do - Bridgeport? Not so great a place to celebrate after your team's victory in the semis.

4) Give up on idea on tournament.

5) The Palestra until better alternatives open up (if ever).

Let's reassess after the tournament. I think some of you are making a mountain over a molehill.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
02-20-17 07:49 PM - Post#222742    

Espn or whomever signs up to televise will likely have some say in it. I would think part of the reason of the Palestra initially is to entice ESPN, et al into a longer term contract and I wouldn't think they would have as much interest in some of the other schools as sites.

The Big 5 used to have every game at the Palestra with Penn as the visitor every other year. That hasn't mattered much, though they now play at the other venues as well.
Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts 3988
02-20-17 09:33 PM - Post#222768    

There's a nice arena at Mohegan Sun in CT. Lot's of hotel rooms.
Bryan
Junior
Posts 231
02-20-17 09:37 PM - Post#222771    

Princeton and Penn have both won their last 4 games, against common opponents, home vs. the C's and at Yale and Brown. Princeton has won by a combined 45 points, which just exceeds the current Sagarin expected differences. Penn has won those same 4 by 67 points, an average of 5.5 points more than the Princeton victories. Now, Penn was 0-6 in Ivy games up to that point but they have been terrific in their last 4 games.

I'd like to give truth serum to both Amaker and Henderson. I'd bet a lot that they'd both prefer to play Yale in the semifinal rather than Penn.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
02-20-17 09:54 PM - Post#222775    

Mohegan Sun! Awesome Idea!

I've seen basketball games there, attended a faux beatles concert, won at the tables, and conquered a buffet - all within 24 hours! No offense Philly, but I'm sure they serve cheese steaks there as well!

Tons of parking - and it's free!

westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts 196
02-20-17 11:23 PM - Post#222787    

"Let's see how this one plays out - both at site and on TV. My feeling is that it's going to be great."

I predict that it will be great. Lot's of excitement, lots of good games. I also predict that Penn will win it and if that happens the tournament will not be back at the Palestra.

The rest of the league, at least H/Y/P, would not allow it. Just as I expect (and hope) Penn would never agree to play it on their courts. There's just too much at stake. There's only one prize in this league, the NCAA tourney spot. The best way to award that prize was always the 14 game tournament. But if you are going to have an end of season tournament, the only fair way to compete for the prize is on a neutral court or to give the higher seeded team (that they have earned in the 14 games) the home court for each game.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
02-20-17 11:41 PM - Post#222790    

Well put. I gotta think the powers that be didn't expect Penn to make the cut this year.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
02-21-17 07:58 AM - Post#222804    

The game is at The Palestra because folks wanted the tournament to happen. Since it's hard to put the genie back in the bottle now that it has happened, there may not be a need to pick The Palestra.
JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts 357
02-21-17 08:25 AM - Post#222805    

If you are looking for a neutral court may I suggest Casey Arena at Mohegan Sun in Wilkes-Barre, home of the Penguins. Seats 10,000 + for basketball. The Globetrotters will be there the day of the Ivy final before a sell out crowd. Acres of parking, lots of nearby hotel space, and English, in one form or another, remains the favored language throughout the Lackawanna Valley. Certainly a central location for the 4 southern teams in the League.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1871
02-21-17 08:46 AM - Post#222809    

If the IL really doesn't care about making money on this thing, then it would hold it at the league champ's venue. And no, Penn fans, the Palestra is not the only arena in proximity to hotels or parking. Princeton has hosted dozens of multi-day, large crowd sporting events at Jadwin. Back in the day, Jadwin hosted the old ECAC playoffs, the winner of which went to the NCAAs, before the Big East and A10 formed. (In the 70s, there was more seating on the baselines and capacity was I believe closer to the Palestra.) Yale's relatively small gym (2,800?) was a great location for the P-H playoff in 2011. There's is no need to put 4 games on the Saturday ticket if teams with smaller gyms win the league championship.
TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
02-21-17 08:48 AM - Post#222810    

  • westphillywarrior Said:
I predict that it will be great. Lot's of excitement, lots of good games. I also predict that Penn will win it and if that happens the tournament will not be back at the Palestra.


Yup, if Penn doesn't win then The Palestra will be seen as a great permanent venue, if Penn makes it (a big if) and also wins then it'll be rotated most likely.

You can't play the tournament at the home of the winner when half the league seats 3000 or less.

Mohegan Sun would be a possibility if big enough, however you're sharing your site with gamblers which is bad optics.

Wilkes Barre? Really? Why not hold the tournament on the moon? I'd opt for Jadwin or Bridgeport instead.

palestra38
Professor
Posts 32682
02-21-17 09:04 AM - Post#222812    

"Wilkes Barre? Really? Why not hold the tournament on the moon?"

First good laugh of the week. I had much the same thought---indeed, SpaceX and the Ivies would make a great marketing combination.

Wilkes Barre may be the most depressing place imaginable to place the tournament. There simply is nothing to do and it's too early in the year to go rafting on the Lehigh River. Why do you think the Globetrotters have a sellout?

I always thought the best place to play the tournament was at the RAC---one thing you can be sure of is that Rutgers won't be playing any post-season ball there.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
02-21-17 09:25 AM - Post#222816    

Why not Bridgeport? Haven't heard any good arguments other than it being close to Yale. Very central. Nice arena. Public transportation adjacent.
TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
02-21-17 09:39 AM - Post#222817    

Not a wonderful city to hang out in - something to consider when most teams and fans would be traveling in for a couple of days. I honestly don't care that it's close to Yale. I'd rather the tournament be at Jadwin than Bridgeport.

The RAC is OK too. New Brunswick is much better than Bridgeport. Has public transportation and hotels. Also close to home for me. And yes, nothing important there during March Madness.

The problem the league has is that there's only one logical place to hold the tournament except it's on the campus of one of the teams. I get it. But how many times are we fed the line that each school has its own unique set of strengths and it's OK that not all is fair?



Go Green
PhD Student
Posts 1124
02-21-17 09:40 AM - Post#222818    

  • Bryan Said:
Princeton and Penn have both won their last 4 games, against common opponents, home vs. the C's and at Yale and Brown. Princeton has won by a combined 45 points, which just exceeds the current Sagarin expected differences. Penn has won those same 4 by 67 points, an average of 5.5 points more than the Princeton victories. Now, Penn was 0-6 in Ivy games up to that point but they have been terrific in their last 4 games.

I'd like to give truth serum to both Amaker and Henderson. I'd bet a lot that they'd both prefer to play Yale in the semifinal rather than Penn.



Dartmouth did similar chest-thumping at the end of the 2015 season when we finished with a hot streak.

And then we got thumped in the first round of the CIT by Canisius.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
02-21-17 09:52 AM - Post#222821    

I disagree that there's only one logical place to hold the tourney, though I do agree that The Palestra is a strong venue to choose.

From what I'm hearing, and it sounds like what Tannenwald is hearing too from his Twitter feed, here's how I'd handicap the three possible outcomes for next year (most likely to least likely):

1) Have a tourney held someplace else
2) Don't have a tourney
3) Have a tourney at The Palestra

Three isn't locked into three - if the environment is great, games are great and HCA doesn't have an adverse effect, maybe things will unfold differently, but right now, that's the order I'd bet on.
TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
02-21-17 10:02 AM - Post#222823    

I've been against the tournament but now that we have one I think it's good. I really like that it's 4 teams, it is making every game count.

I'm guessing the site will be rotated. I also strongly believe that the environment at the Palestra will be great. Having been to many Big 5 and Penn-Princeton games over the years I think HCA is being over-estimated and will only be a factor for teams whose fans don't travel well.

DJ Jazzy Jeff
Freshman
Posts 58
02-21-17 10:32 AM - Post#222832    

Bridgeport didn't work for the MAAC tournament and it probably won't work for the IL either. Just not as much of a destination and draw for fans as other locations. The MAAC tried and failed to find other suitable locations other than Albany and it didn't work. If the IL tries the same, I bet they get the same result.

If Creighton, Marquette, DePaul and others (and their fans) can travel to MSG, then whoever makes the top 4 can travel to the Palestra. Even if it's the home court for Penn.
Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3765
02-21-17 10:33 AM - Post#222833    

  • mrjames Said:
Why not Bridgeport? Haven't heard any good arguments other than it being close to Yale. Very central. Nice arena. Public transportation adjacent.



And, as we all know, Bridgeport is often referred to as "The Wilkes-Barre of Southern Connecticut."

When I as at Penn I was on the rifle team (seriously), and we used to go up to Wilkes-Barre every year to shoot against Kings College. This was not a trip to which we looked forward, partly because Kings had an outstanding team and they always kicked our butts, and partly because WB is such a depressing place.
DJ Jazzy Jeff
Freshman
Posts 58
02-21-17 10:36 AM - Post#222835    

How can the IL not have a tourney after the excitement this season has had, and it's not even over yet? Teams and their fans still have something to fight for and that makes it fun.

Look at the great run Holy Cross made last year and even won their first game in the NCAA tournament!!
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21081
02-21-17 10:43 AM - Post#222839    

For fans in the NYC area, Bridgeport is close enough to drive to, head home, and come back for the final game if need be. The arena is immediately off of I-95. There is also the Bridgeport station of Metro North's New Haven line, very close to the arena, that can serve the same purpose.

There is ample parking and the arena itself is very nice and roomy with great sightlines.
westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts 196
02-21-17 11:06 AM - Post#222844    

I'm really surprised that playing the games on the higher seeded team's home court is not on the list. That would be my second choice (after Don't Have a Tourney).

I like that it gives a significant reward to teams and their fans for their performance in the 14 game tournament.

If that format is too complicated for "The Committee" maybe they can hire someone from the Patriot League to run it.

Why don't you think that option is on your list?
TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
02-21-17 11:46 AM - Post#222852    

That's a limiting option when half the league plays in 2000 seat arenas. That's a quarter the size of The Palestra.

I'd hope that one of the bigger reasons to have a tournament is to raise the stature of the league. It is for me at least. if so then it needs to be somewhere that fits the bill.

Columbia Alum
Junior
Posts 247
02-21-17 12:31 PM - Post#222854    

I like the concept of a 4 team tournament, makes all teams fight until the very end of the season. To make it fairer and give more incentive to the top 2-3 teams, tourney games should be held at the higher ranked team's home court, like NFL playoffs. I understand capacity restrictions but right now there is no advantage to 1 vs. 4 apart from who is played against whom in the first round. Plus the Palestra gives penn an unfair advantage over others when penn makes the tourney.

I'd really like the see how large the audience is for H vs Y at the Palestra. My bet is the palestra doesn't fill up, and more people would show up to watch, if the game were held at Lavietes (or second ranked team's home court)
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
02-21-17 12:33 PM - Post#222855    

I'll keep my ears peeled for discussion of higher-seed home site (or highest-seed home site) formats, but I believe why I'm not hearing that is due to the commitment to keep the women's and men's tournaments at the same site.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32682
02-21-17 12:35 PM - Post#222856    

There was a playoff game between Harvard and Yale 2 years ago at the Palestra and not only did it sell out, but tickets were going for over $100 apiece.
TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
02-21-17 01:02 PM - Post#222859    

If we go to higher seed home then Princeton will become my 3rd rooting interest and we can't have that.

But seriously, either we want to have a tournament or we don't. You can't have a good tournament in a 2000 seat gym. If we want fair then let's go back to the old format.

palestra38
Professor
Posts 32682
02-21-17 01:11 PM - Post#222860    

I agree. I consistently opposed a tournament on the basis that we should send the best team over 14 games. The decision having been made, I am enjoying the Penn run and would love to see Penn win out and come into the NCAA tournament with one of the longer undefeated streaks in the nation.

But it would not be fair to Princeton. After shedding a few tears for them, I would shake off the depression and root for Penn.
Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2801
02-21-17 01:18 PM - Post#222863    

Basically I agree, except for the part about shaking off the tears and rooting for ... God! That would be tough!
QHoops
Senior
Posts 368
02-21-17 01:20 PM - Post#222864    


The first decision that needs to be made is this a tournament (with all the teams at the same site, including the women if that is a priority), or what might better be called a playoff.

If it is a playoff - much easier to manage and apportion benefit to the higher seeded teams. All games are at the higher seed, either a straight 4 team playoff, or as has been mentioned, perhaps go to 3 teams with the 1 seed getting a bye. That preserves a significant benefit to winning the regular season.

If a tournament atmosphere is the goal, then you have to rule out playing at 5 or 6 of the sites due to capacity issues. It's just not credible to have a 'tournament' at a venue seating 2 or 3 thousand people.

That leaves the Palestra, Jadwin, and non-league sites. It's hard to imagine getting everyone to agree to a non-league site.
DJ Jazzy Jeff
Freshman
Posts 58
02-21-17 01:30 PM - Post#222866    

I just don't understand the "fair" argument. Nothing is fair... Was it fair when the Giants were a wildcard team and won the Super Bowl? Is it fair when the ACC tournament is in Greensboro and UNC is in the final? Is it fair when Siena is in the MAAC final on their home court? Is it fair when Syracuse was in the Big East final and the entire MSG was covered in Orange and Blue?

Penn may be playing the best now and may be the best team, and if so should deserve the NCAA bid if they win the tournament. That's how sports go. It took them longer to figure things out and now they're playing at a high level. It just so happens that they have the best venue for the tournament as well. Maybe Princeton is the better team and they beat Penn...we'll only know because of this great thing called a post season tournament!!
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32682
02-21-17 02:02 PM - Post#222870    

Yes, it's fair in the NFL because the teams don't play a round robin and there is no "fair" way to judge the value of the record. So they give an auto bid to the first place teams and the next two best records. That is as fair as they can make it without going to a 4 division setup with 8 teams and no inter-division or inter-conference games.

With mid-major conferences that get only one bid and have a round robin, it is patently unfair not to send the winner. You, in effect, have had a tournament and then disregard the result.
Streamers
Professor
Posts 8141
Streamers
02-21-17 02:32 PM - Post#222875    

A couple of things to mention about home court and the Palestra - it has a history as a 'home' court for other teams in the Big 5 and a Tournament site. Much of the HC advantage for Penn can be dialed out of the place with ticket sales, etc. More importantly, the Ivy home teams tend not to have the same advantage they might in other conferences. I have not run an data analysis on this but I'm pretty sure Ivy road teams are over .500 this year and probably close to that against the spread. Also note that Ivy referees are about as adept at home calls as they are with every everything else ;-) Hopefully, that will improve at IvyMadness.
Kit
Senior
Posts 380
02-21-17 02:45 PM - Post#222876    

Why not play the tournament at Madison Square Garden? Saturday night is the Big East championship, so on Saturday afternoon they could play the semi-finals. On Sunday, they could play the championship. It would be a perfect fit. The women's tournament could rotate between the Palestra and Jadwin.

palestra38
Professor
Posts 32682
02-21-17 02:55 PM - Post#222877    

Too bad they no longer have the Felt Forum
T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts 1169
02-21-17 03:22 PM - Post#222884    

  • palestra38 Said:
Too bad they no longer have the Felt Forum


The New York Apples OWNED the Felt Forum.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32682
02-21-17 03:29 PM - Post#222886    

I had to look that one up---saw it was the renamed (and a much better original name) New York Sets of Team Tennis. Only played one year as the Apples...but there was a time NY had the Mets, Jets, Nets and Sets.
TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
02-21-17 03:36 PM - Post#222887    

The Felt Forum is a great name for a pool hall.

HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
02-21-17 03:59 PM - Post#222889    

Or a club of ill repute
T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts 1169
02-21-17 04:02 PM - Post#222890    

  • palestra38 Said:
I had to look that one up---saw it was the renamed (and a much better original name) New York Sets of Team Tennis. Only played one year as the Apples...but there was a time NY had the Mets, Jets, Nets and Sets.


I think Sesame Street played on this in one or two episodes with a sports team named the Pets.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32682
02-21-17 04:03 PM - Post#222891    

OTB (RIP) had an ad campaign where they called themselves the New York Bets
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 12480
02-21-17 06:02 PM - Post#222903    

I get the feeling that Penn fans may be getting a little ahead of themselves here. This thing is FAR from over.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21081
02-21-17 06:26 PM - Post#222908    

Darn right. If Columbia beats Penn this thing is going down to the last game, most likely.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
02-21-17 06:39 PM - Post#222915    

Columbia? I would worry about Cornell first. They are going to be motivated after being embarrassed. Kenpom has this as a 3pt game.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32682
02-21-17 06:43 PM - Post#222916    

What Penn fans are acting confident? I haven't seen any. We're playing great but any team can lose on the road in the Ivies. Had the turnaround not occurred, I would have expected 3 losses in these 4 games. One game at a time.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1871
02-21-17 06:55 PM - Post#222919    

  • Quote:
Is it fair when Syracuse was in the Big East final and the entire MSG was covered in Orange and Blue?



The Ivy League is not the Big East, or the Acc or the A-10, or certainly the NFL. For at least the short term, it is a one-bid league, which makes this tournament now do-or-die. For conferences with multiple participants in the NCAA virtually guaranteed, these tournaments are a spectacle without the urgency that will accompany the IL tournament. Holding it at the tired old, smelly barn in west Philly just because its old and storied just doesn't cut it. If it went to 3 teams, with top seed getting a bye, I MIGHT feel differently because #1 would get a major benefit from winning the 14-game tournament, even it ended up playing Penn in the final.

(Ok I admit that I am a big fan of the Palestra, have dragged my wife and kids there to experience it and have cherished memories going there as a child to wathc P-P in double headers with LaSalle/Temple/St. Joes. But it just isn't right for this purpose)
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21081
02-21-17 07:06 PM - Post#222923    

I must say that I chuckle when continuing to read the objections of Tiger fans to the Palestra.

Based on this logic, Big Five games at the Palestra would never have materialized. As many have noted, when you have motivated fan bases the "home court" factor at the Palestra is greatly minimized.

  • TigerFan Said:
  • Quote:
Is it fair when Syracuse was in the Big East final and the entire MSG was covered in Orange and Blue?



The Ivy League is not the Big East, or the Acc or the A-10, or certainly the NFL. For at least the short term, it is a one-bid league, which makes this tournament now do-or-die. For conferences with multiple participants in the NCAA virtually guaranteed, these tournaments are a spectacle without the urgency that will accompany the IL tournament. Holding it at the tired old, smelly barn in west Philly just because its old and storied just doesn't cut it. If it went to 3 teams, with top seed getting a bye, I MIGHT feel differently because #1 would get a major benefit from winning the 14-game tournament, even it ended up playing Penn in the final.

(Ok I admit that I am a big fan of the Palestra, have dragged my wife and kids there to experience it and have cherished memories going there as a child to wathc P-P in double headers with LaSalle/Temple/St. Joes. But it just isn't right for this purpose)



TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1871
02-21-17 08:19 PM - Post#222932    

The Big Five was a great annual battle played between storied programs but with no connection to any conference or implications for post-season (and it appears to be little more than a glorified exhibition series now). You can't compare the Big Five to games that decide the conference representation to the NCAA tournament.
TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
02-21-17 08:48 PM - Post#222940    

  • PennFan10 Said:
Columbia? I would worry about Cornell first. They are going to be motivated after being embarrassed. Kenpom has this as a 3pt game.


Cornell is sitting at 3-5. I've seen them a few times this year, and they've looked good except for the egg they laid against Penn. It's a team that can definitely take 4th.

A week ago P38 was waxing poetic about Brown.

Based on their complaints about the Palestra it sounds like Princeton fans are more optimistic about Penn making the tournament than Penn fans are.

SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4894
02-21-17 08:52 PM - Post#222943    

I think it's just the sap rising from the resurgence of the Killer P's. Brings back old memories and reflexes.
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
02-21-17 09:42 PM - Post#222954    

The problem with Cornell is always the possibility you catch them on a night when Morgan and Hatter don't miss.

If I'm Penn, I don't even think about Columbia until Friday is done.
Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts 3614
Mike Porter
02-21-17 09:57 PM - Post#222955    

Completely with you SG. I'm most concerned with Cornell first and think they'll come out fired up at home wanting to make up for the blowout at the Palestra. That will be a tough game.
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
02-22-17 09:10 AM - Post#222977    

They'll look a little different, too. Instead of the 4 guard they've run all season, this weekend they went to a more traditional lineup with 2 bigs to start games. So the freshman Warren will play more, which may enable them to matchup a little better when we play with 2 bigs.

They also know that they won the 2nd half at the Palestra pressing and chucking 3s. So we could see a high variance approach (which, unfortunately, can lead to high variance results).
mountainred
Masters Student
Posts 509
02-22-17 10:22 AM - Post#222981    

I hope Earl doesn't try to draw any grand conclusions from what "worked" in garbage time to what would work while the game is still on the line. After 24 games, it is clear the Big Red isn't a good three point shooting team. When you are #278 in 3 point shooting there will be the occasional hot night, but the bell curve of results is mostly bad.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
02-24-17 03:36 PM - Post#223257    

reposting some great tweets by Mr James on tiebreakers:

Mike James‏@ivybball
Penn is the favorite right now. A win over COL would make it an overwhelming favorite but anything other than a COL sweep is fine or better.

Mike James‏@ivybball
In the vast, vast majority of scenarios, the 2/3 game is Harvard-Yale & Princeton is the 1, opening with, well, that's where things get fun.

Mike James‏@ivybball
Of course, there are also some crazier scenarios where a 3-7 team wins out, but let's treat those with the reasonableness they deserve.

Mike James‏@ivybball
So, for Yale, 8-6 is obviously in. 7-7 would be good so long as the Penn-Columbia loser loses one more game.

Mike James‏@ivybball
Given that Yale already is 0-2 vs PRIN & would likely be 0-2 vs HAR for this to be an issue, record vs other qualified teams would be rough.

Mike James‏@ivybball
If Yale needs a tiebreaker to qualify, it will have won at <= 1 game down the stretch. If that game isn't vs COL, it will split H2H breaker.

Mike James‏@ivybball
Harvard is pretty locked into the 2/3 game unless it loses out (& loses breakers) or makes up 2 gms (prob 3 given tiebreakers) on Princeton.

Mike James‏@ivybball
Princeton will be the 1-seed at 12-2 or better unless Harvard wins out & the other team the Tigers lose to isn't Columbia & gets the 4-seed.

Mike James‏@ivybball
With less than 7 hrs to tip, let's reset the Ivy race & provide the cheat sheet for understanding the impacts of various games this weekend.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
02-24-17 03:38 PM - Post#223258    

I wonder how "reasonable" a 3-7 team running the table is/isn't. Can't be any more/less likely than Penn going from 0-6 to 7-7

Cornell and Dartmouth are still in this thing.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
02-24-17 03:54 PM - Post#223261    

Here are the "win out" odds for each team:

Brown (6 wins): 1.7%
Columbia (8 wins): 1.9%
Cornell (7 wins): 0.6%
Dartmouth (7 wins): 0.1%
Harvard (12 wins): 5.4%
Penn (8 wins): 15.7%
Princeton (14 wins): 40.8%
Yale (10 wins): 10.4%

So, every team is expected to lose at least once and only Princeton is remotely close to tipping over to going undefeated the rest of the way being more likely than not.

That being said, there is a ~1/3 chance that one of the seven non-Princeton teams will pull off a 4-0 final stretch. And when you throw in Princeton, there's a ~2/3 chance that some team will go 4-0 down the stretch (obviously most likely to be the Tigers).
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1871
02-24-17 04:03 PM - Post#223265    

Mike, Wish you had time to discuss variance and the Quakers last night on the vine. Is there a statistical model predicting the Quakers will revert to their norm or is that just a well educated hunch? (is that sufficient bait for you?)
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
02-24-17 04:55 PM - Post#223278    

I always manage to destroy that podcast. Feel so bad every single time I go on there.

I'm relying on the work of others here, but essentially, if you were to recursively walk through each team's ratings progression throughout the year, you would find that after any given game, you would be better off predicting that a team moves towards its YTD performance average rather than further away from it.

There are definite exceptions to this. There have been teams that have just progressively increased their ranking all season (Kyle Smith's new squad, for instance). But that's the exception, not the rule. Generally, a short term vacillation in performance tends to regress back toward the dominant YTD trend.

My hypothesis on this is that style-driven improvements or declines are more likely to sustain and not regress than improvements or declines driven by elements more influenced by luck or variance (jumper shooting for and against, free throw defense, non-steal TOs). Why I'm so suspicious of Penn's sudden surge is that its eFG% in the four-game surge has been 48%, 62%, 70% and 59%. It was 57% at La Salle. In the four and three game slides in Jan and Feb it was 49%, 41%, 49% and 49% and 42%, 55% and 47%.

Looking at it from a eFG% for vs. against, you see that during the slides they went:
+11%
-11%
-6%
+3%
-6%
-3%
-16%

And during this run:
+5%
+15%
+19%
+21%

I'm HIGHLY skeptical of runs driven by outsized eFG% differentials. FWIW, Penn's long run eFG% differential is +3% for the year.
JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts 357
02-24-17 05:21 PM - Post#223290    

I wish you could make your Skype connection compatible with Peter Andrews'. Your visits are always interesting and loaded with insight not readily available to casual fans. I enjoyed the discussion "off the air" after we finished the podcast, too. And not just because you predict recognition for Weisz, Cook and Stephens.
TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
02-24-17 05:22 PM - Post#223291    

There has been a personnel change towards players who have been more efficient, like Betley. That has also had a positive effect on the rest of the team - spacing is improved, others are getting less contested shots, Brodeur and Foreman aren't putting up as many low percentage shots.

So I think some of the better efficiency is for real. How much is the question.

Streamers
Professor
Posts 8141
Streamers
02-24-17 05:22 PM - Post#223292    

  • mrjames Said:

I'm HIGHLY skeptical of runs driven by outsized eFG% differentials. FWIW, Penn's long run eFG% differential is +3% for the year.



The data agrees with you; but please consider the fact Penn is effectively putting a different team out on the floor now than they did during 0-6. If there was an anomaly this year, it was the OOC wins against LaSalle and UCF; and I attribute those in large part to inferior coaching/scheme by the opposition.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
02-24-17 09:09 PM - Post#223370    

Mike James,

Your twitter stuff is awesome. Thanks for posting it.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32682
02-25-17 09:28 AM - Post#223487    

Here's my question. While Penn may have had a 15.7% chance of winning out (before last night), what was it's chance of winning 5 straight after losing the first 6?

And what is your point spread tonight for both Penn-Columbia and Yale-Dartmouth?
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
02-25-17 10:45 AM - Post#223493    

i'm guessing the odds of losing the 1st six weren't very high either. But the odds of going 5-6 for the first 11 were higher, and overall that's where we are.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
02-25-17 11:04 AM - Post#223499    

Kenpom has Penn -1 for tonight.
Streamers
Professor
Posts 8141
Streamers
02-25-17 11:07 AM - Post#223501    

Vegas has Lions -1 (they know something about Howard)

Note Penn is about 20 slots above Yale in the rankings now.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-04-17 01:26 PM - Post#224709    

Bump?

  • Quote:
I'm relying on the work of others here, but essentially, if you were to recursively walk through each team's ratings progression throughout the year, you would find that after any given game, you would be better off predicting that a team moves towards its YTD performance average rather than further away from it.

There are definite exceptions to this. There have been teams that have just progressively increased their ranking all season (Kyle Smith's new squad, for instance). But that's the exception, not the rule. Generally, a short term vacillation in performance tends to regress back toward the dominant YTD trend.

My hypothesis on this is that style-driven improvements or declines are more likely to sustain and not regress than improvements or declines driven by elements more influenced by luck or variance (jumper shooting for and against, free throw defense, non-steal TOs). Why I'm so suspicious of Penn's sudden surge is that its eFG% in the four-game surge has been 48%, 62%, 70% and 59%. It was 57% at La Salle. In the four and three game slides in Jan and Feb it was 49%, 41%, 49% and 49% and 42%, 55% and 47%.

Looking at it from a eFG% for vs. against, you see that during the slides they went:
+11%
-11%
-6%
+3%
-6%
-3%
-16%

And during this run:
+5%
+15%
+19%
+21%

I'm HIGHLY skeptical of runs driven by outsized eFG% differentials. FWIW, Penn's long run eFG% differential is +3% for the year.






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