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| Username | Post: Way too early 2017-18 Continuity Model Rankings |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-22-17 11:53 AM - Post#227894
Just a quick update - looks like Pomeroy changed the way his data downloads, so I was pulling in Raw rather than Adjusted ORAT/DRAT as the basis for last year's numbers. That has a minor impact on the expected numbers: Team Adj Eff Marg ImpRank Harvard +9.81 70 Princeton +8.37 85 Yale +8.44 86 Penn +1.78 140 Columbia -3.27 188 Cornell -5.77 219 Dartmouth -7.13 236 Brown -10.88 275 There's a little more to what's going on here than just continuity. The model also pulls teams down to or up to their prior year averages and league averages. So, for a team like Penn, it's going to have a little more drag on it than Harvard will (as well as Princeton and Yale, which both have strong historical numbers to buoy them). Beyond that though, there is zero complexity to this model. I used to do a far more accurate version of this, looking through at actual players and projecting them out based on growth curves. That's just beyond the scope of what I have time for these days, but this model serves a nifty 80/20 purpose. |
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