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| Username | Post: Building realistic simulations |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
02-08-18 12:24 PM - Post#246914
The funny/weird/slightly incomprehensible thing is no, it isn't. Which makes little intuitive sense, but Ken did some great analysis that showed that predicting performance at the end of a season as the target variable, leveraging preseason rankings still had added predictive value over where the team stood at that time. So, technically, you could justify having some preseason weight in there the entire season. He fades the weight out earlier than that (January) for ease of explanation, but technically, it would still be a (marginally?) better rating system to leave them in. His reasoning was that it would be a very, very small amount of weighting that he wouldn't want people latching on to in order to cast aspersions on his overall system. Sometimes the product you build has to sacrifice integrity to gain buy in. Thus is life. |
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