Username | Post: 2016-17: Offensive Rating By Type of Possession |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
11-03-17 03:33 PM - Post#235433
Bringing this over here from the Penn thread... I went back through last year's PBP data and pulled together the offensive and defensive ratings for each team based on the type of shots they took (or allowed) on each possession. (Note that these are raw efficiency ratings, not adjusted for opponent caliber). What stands out to me is how close Harvard, Princeton and Yale were last year on non-TO possessions both on the offensive and defensive side. Remains to be see how much of Princeton's astonishing +5pp turnover rate differential it can carry forward into the 2017-18 campaign. And if Harvard and Yale can flip theirs to positive, that could REALLY propel those two forward. Offensive Rating on possession with 3PT shot: HAR 133 PRIN 133 YALE 133 COL 130 DART 130 BRN 128 PENN 125 COR 120 Offensive Rating on possession with 2PT J: PENN 106 YALE 103 COR 98 DART 98 HAR 93 COL 89 PRIN 89 BRN 82 Offensive Rating on possession with layup: HAR 148 YALE 140 COL 137 COR 137 PENN 135 PRIN 134 DART 133 BRN 132 Offensive Rating on possession with 2 FTs: PRIN 162 BRN 158 HAR 158 YALE 156 COL 152 DART 150 COR 146 PENN 146 Defensive (Oppt Offensive) Rating on possession with 3PT shot: HAR 116 PRIN 125 YALE 125 DART 128 COR 131 PENN 131 COL 138 BRN 139 Defensive (Oppt Offensive) Rating on possession with 2PT J: HAR 94 YALE 96 PENN 97 COL 99 COR 99 PRIN 101 DART 102 BRN 105 Defensive (Oppt Offensive) Rating on possession with layup: PRIN 119 HAR 134 PENN 135 COL 136 YALE 136 COR 144 DART 144 BRN 153 Defensive (Oppt Offensive) Rating on possession with 2 FTs: COL 145 HAR 145 PRIN 147 DART 149 BRN 153 YALE 153 PENN 155 COR 156 |
TheLine Professor Posts 5597 |
11-03-17 04:18 PM - Post#235434
Mike, can you add percentages for each? It would help provide context. The thing that stands out is Princeton's ability to defend layups. |
mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
11-03-17 04:25 PM - Post#235435
Yeah, I don't have that written into the print out now, but I could add it pretty easily. In the interim, you can get most of the way there with three point and FT rates from KenPom. |
SomeGuy Professor Posts 6391 |
11-03-17 04:32 PM - Post#235436
Anywhere free that has Penn's 2 pt jumper percentages by player? Curious whose jumpers are getting counted and what type of jumpers they are. Is Penn's ORAT higher because they take fewer of them and thus only take them when they are easiest? Are they not pull-ups off the dribble (and do pull-ups have different percentages from the Henry Books type of jumper?)? Or just a quirk? |
SRP Postdoc Posts 4894 |
11-03-17 07:12 PM - Post#235443
Princeton could have been a lot better on layups offensively (look at that Harvard number!), but their stingy collapsing D on opponents who got to the rim also fit well with their determination not to make ORs too easy for the opponent. |
mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
11-03-17 07:21 PM - Post#235444
Hoop-math.com is great! |
TheLine Professor Posts 5597 |
11-03-17 07:47 PM - Post#235445
Nice site. Mind already blown. More stuff to digest. Can't wait for season to start so I can watch games instead. |
SomeGuy Professor Posts 6391 |
11-03-17 11:20 PM - Post#235449
Thanks. Looking quickly, seems like AJ and Max get a lot of assisted 2 pt jumpers. Then next would be Foreman getting himself into the lane for unassisted pull-ups. No idea if the numbers hold up across other teams and players, but at least last year AJ and Max hit a higher percentage. Interesting stuff. |
HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2685 |
11-03-17 11:34 PM - Post#235450
Harvard's layup ORAT is going to drop without Zena. Chris is good too, but that was a combo that led the league in shooting % |
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