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Username Post: Brutal Loss
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32684
11-14-17 09:09 AM - Post#236254    

Had to sleep this one off. I think Donahue went with the correct game plan, playing a far better defensive team to match up with LaSalle's athleticism. We got the much better shots throughout the game and just missed them. Woods wins the game with a perfectly planned last play in regulation simply by hitting the layup. Foreman wins the game in OT by hitting a slightly harder but still easily makeable layup. Our freshmen are not ready to play at this level and Scott had to be -8 or 9 in just a couple of minutes. The only question I have is why we didn't see more of Wood---he was our only player likely to hit a 3 and when he was out there, the LaSalle defense had to come out rather than collapse as they did all game.

Rothschild is effective on defense but sucks the life out of our offense. I don't want to see this lineup playing this much time against less athletic teams.

Now to forget it... I wish Mr. Spock had come to me in the night, put his hand on my temple and murmured, "Forget...."
10Q
Professor
Posts 23199
11-14-17 11:00 AM - Post#236260    

Live long and prosper.

What I want to know is why AJ has not progressed. He came in as a freshman phenom, but his game has not gotten better one iota. He also does not look as strong as I would have expected. Do they not have a weight lifting program? I get that he is a real student and I don't blame the guy for having other interests. I just wish he had matured into a truly dominant force.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
11-14-17 11:48 AM - Post#236263    

it's so crazy how a guy who struggled with finishing at the rim over 40 games worth of data would have trouble... finishing.

I think that's the definition of irony. Although I wasn't an English major.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32684
11-14-17 11:59 AM - Post#236264    

Assuming you're speaking of Woods, the reason he was out there for 44 or so minutes was that the replacements were brutal. He made some really nice moves and played very good defense. But yes, he could have won the game for us and did not. I am certain that the 40 games of statistics would have predicted that miss. But if you want to talk about finishing, you have to look at that 6-19 from our starting center. That cannot happen.
10Q
Professor
Posts 23199
11-14-17 12:01 PM - Post#236265    

Woods looks functional, but I'm not sure he's better than that.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
11-14-17 12:05 PM - Post#236266    

it's almost like me saying that he might be starting not because he was good but because he was the best available of bad options...

Who knew that you could use data, mix in some trends with how basketball works now, and come up with accurate statements about basketball? Someone should let Mike James know!
Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts 1439
11-14-17 12:10 PM - Post#236267    

And someone should also acknowledge that Mike James was correct to remind Penn fans not to undervalue the contributions of Matt Howard when assessing the potential for this year's team.

10Q
Professor
Posts 23199
11-14-17 12:18 PM - Post#236268    

One thing I noticed last night is that we have no touch around the hoop. Again and again our guys banged the ball off the backboard from a foot away, instead of just laying it up softly.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32684
11-14-17 12:19 PM - Post#236269    

Are you telling us we didn't lose games just like yesterday over the past 4 years?
Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3765
11-14-17 12:27 PM - Post#236270    

  • Jeff2sf Said:
it's so crazy how a guy who struggled with finishing at the rim over 40 games worth of data would have trouble... finishing.

I think that's the definition of irony. Although I wasn't an English major.



Very clever: you pretend to engage in the more recent form of irony (referencing a situation that is the opposite of what one would expect), but actually deploy the traditional form of irony: saying precisely the opposite of what you actually mean. I may need to see a grammatical orthopedist to treat my syntactic whiplash.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32684
11-14-17 12:35 PM - Post#236271    

And I thought Irony was when it rains on your wedding day
10Q
Professor
Posts 23199
11-14-17 12:40 PM - Post#236272    

Nothing like an indoor chupa.
Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3765
11-14-17 12:49 PM - Post#236273    

If it rains the groom just wears his gore-tex cummerbund.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
11-14-17 01:08 PM - Post#236274    

Here's what I like about the man defense that Penn has essentially been forced into now:

- they're stealing the ball like mad (11% steal rate)
- they're able to chase opponents off the three-point line (which will serve them well when opponents start shooting better than 20%)

What I hate about it is that now you can pull AJ away from the rim, and opponents are getting there with impunity (40% shots there versus 31% last year & opponents are making 67% versus 55% last year). Also, the man defense is opening them up to fouls and the opponent free throw rate (plus the eye-popping make rate, which should regress) is killer.

Lineup splits are quite unsurprising (even this early on):

Betley + Brodeur are 94 ORAT/87 DRAT on floor (119 poss) and 84/138 off floor (37 poss).

Antonio Woods is 90 ORAT/102 DRAT on floor (83 poss) and 94/97 off floor.

Penn's most frequent lineup has been: Betley, Brodeur, Foreman, Woods, Rothschild (52 poss) with an ORAT of 83, DRAT 79.

That lineup is really struggling at the rim (42% of shots there, 28.6% make rate) and obviously from three as well (2-of-12). But for me, it's really concerning that they're settling for so many two point Js (35% of shots, versus 17% of shots for all other lineups) and thus, not taking as many threes (23% of shots versus 50% of shots for all other lineups). I know the angst over the three point shooting right now, but we know Penn isn't a 23.7% shooting team (we know this because no team in the COUNTRY was worse than 26.7% and only 14 teams nationally were worse than 30%), and when that shooting does improve, you're going to want to be allocating shots like the "all other lineups" not as the Betley-Brodeur-Foreman-Wo ods-Rothschild one is currently.

But, yeah, this team seems to be missing Howard right now. Want more data before making any stronger statement than that...
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3579
11-14-17 02:15 PM - Post#236277    

Mike,

Does your analysis included the Fairfield stats? We shot 59 three's in two games, an average of almost 30, which is more than our average last year and the 39 3pters vs Fairfield were somewhere near a school record for attempts.

Seems to me we are taking our share of 3's, maybe not last night but through two games we are 14-59.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
11-14-17 02:23 PM - Post#236278    

It does.

I've got 59 threes across 156 possessions, but for the 52 possessions that specific lineup was on the floor together, they only took 12. Penn took 47 threes across the other 104 possessions. That's not totally surprising, given that, among returning players from last season, the number 1, 3, 5, 6 and 7th-ranked players in terms of threes taken are not part of that lineup.
Basketball Bruce
Freshman
Posts 29
11-14-17 02:40 PM - Post#236279    

Do you think that may be because Donahue rewards players with playing time based on the number of three point shots they take? And not necessarily how many they make? (Jackson, last season and first game) Is it just me or does this team so often look like a bad AAU team, with selfish guards chucking up three's, going one on one and not having the patience to actually set up a play? There is no cohesiveness, no flow. No chemistry. I still don't see a team leader. And I definitely don't see a point guard who makes the others on the team better. Yeah, its great that Darnell can score 17 in a game and drive to the basket, drawing fouls, but when was the last time anyone saw him make a great pass to a big under the basket? Is he making anyone else on the team better? Couldn't a little selflessness at that position do this team well? And I'm not sure Devin is the answer, either. Especially if the way you stay on the floor is to shoot threes. I think so much of this falls on the coach.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
11-14-17 02:43 PM - Post#236280    

if that's rewarded, why did Jackson Donahue get 0 minutes last night?
Basketball Bruce
Freshman
Posts 29
11-14-17 02:51 PM - Post#236281    

I acknowledged that in my post. And maybe things will be different this season. But historically, Donahue rewards three point shooting. Even if the ball doesn't go in.


mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
11-14-17 02:59 PM - Post#236284    

I mean, Penn's offensive rating on possessions with a three, while lower than the other Ivies, was still basically in line with its ORAT on non-TO possessions. So, even shooting the ball at a rate that's displeasing to Penn fans still ends up being a good choice for this team.
Basketball Bruce
Freshman
Posts 29
11-14-17 03:21 PM - Post#236288    

I get it. And putting aside all of the stats, ORATS and percentages, and just looking at the game, I can't help but think that if the players could just play, and not focus on three point shooting all the time, we would see an improvement.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32684
11-14-17 03:43 PM - Post#236295    

Said otherwise, if we hit our layups at a clip resembling what we should hit from 2-3 feet, we should have won. That's true. What remains to be seen is if we actually can do that. One thing---we need AJ to be the guy in the middle on offense. Having him roaming outside while our center shoots 6-19---all from close range--kills us.
Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3765
11-14-17 03:50 PM - Post#236297    

This much is clear to me: S. Donahue is reluctant to put players on the floor who aren't looking to score. Guys that compromise the overall effectiveness of the offense. That's probably why MacDonald got benched in favor of J. Donahue last season. Say this for Jackson: at least he's willing to hoist it up.
yoyo
Senior
Posts 354
11-14-17 03:52 PM - Post#236298    

so is Donahue hurt?
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32684
11-14-17 04:03 PM - Post#236300    

I don't think the game plan was faulty last night. The coach wanted to prevent LaSalle from chewing us up on the offensive end and played his defensive team. We had the shots that should have been made. The question is whether, as some here believe, these guys cannot hit 2 point shots at a rate sufficient to win games, or whether that will improve to what ought to be a much better percentage considering how many times we got to the rim and missed. I think we have to see more before a conclusion can be reached.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3579
11-14-17 04:07 PM - Post#236301    

  • yoyo Said:
so is Donahue hurt?



Nope

Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts 3615
Mike Porter
11-14-17 04:25 PM - Post#236304    

In general I liked this rotation better - would have liked a little more Goodman, but generally liked the approach.

Max had a really rough night around the basket. We need him shooting somewhere in the middle of 1 shot in game one and 19 shots in game two (way too many). I also am questioning Max defending the opposing centers... AJ is a better blocker and is being pulled too far from post on D.

One positive here - Max has done a much better job taking care of the ball to start. If he can keep TO's down like this and get back to his historical shooting % at something like 10-12 shots a game, that would be really positive.
Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts 4438
Cvonvorys
11-14-17 04:25 PM - Post#236305    

  • palestra38 Said:
I don't think the game plan was faulty last night.



P38... Really? Do you think a game plan that entails Max taking 19 shots (nearly 3 times more than AJ) is going to win us many games? Do you think a game plan that puts a dominant shot blocker farther from the basket (zero blocked shots that game) is going to win us many games? Do you think a game plan where Antonio & Darnell each take the same number of shots as Ryan (and a lot more than AJ) is going to win us many games?

I was high on Caleb before the season started, and he's earned more playing time, IMHO. One turnover after 2 games... Who, besides me, would've predicted that? I prefer Caleb shooting to either Antonio or Darnell.

Brutal loss is right. And we were favored in both games, by the way...
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32684
11-14-17 04:29 PM - Post#236307    

Favored by fewer than 3...essentially a push given our home court and a game that we should have won.

I criticized Max taking so many shots and blocking AJ's access to the basket. I do not criticize the idea against LaSalle (only) to put our best defensive team out there--hound the hell out of them and try to beat them inside. We did hound the hell out of them, took them completely out of their game and blew makeable close in shot after shot. That's what I am not criticizing. Max needs to stop being a black hole with the ball inside, but other than that, the game plan should have given us a W
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 12480
11-14-17 04:30 PM - Post#236308    

The rotations may not have been faulty but the ball absolutely has to get in Betley's hands, no matter what it takes to make it happen. We did not see that last night.
Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts 4438
Cvonvorys
11-14-17 04:37 PM - Post#236309    

Couldn't we "hound the hell out of them" better without our starters playing 40+ minutes each (Max played 38)? Couldn't we still "hound the hell out of them" while allowing AJ to take more than 7 shots?

And can anyone tell me how playing Antonio & Darnell at the same time benefits us? Fewer TOs?
yoyo
Senior
Posts 354
11-14-17 04:40 PM - Post#236310    

I have seen enough of Darnell.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32684
11-14-17 04:45 PM - Post#236312    

Look, we put the freshmen in twice for about 3 minutes total and we lost the game (in terms of +/-) then. Those guys weren't ready to play at the pace that LaSalle can play. I think that we had the right guys out there for that matchup. Max took too many shots where he was going one on one, but the guards got to the hoop and just missed a few very makeable shots. Yes, Wood looked good as a shooter and I would have liked to see him play more. Other than that, you have to agree that we had every chance to win and should have won. I don't think any other guards we have could have played LaSalle's guards as tough as we did. We were hurt by Johnson, but we took the ball from him 8 times and converted those turnovers into points. They had a very quick and athletic team and we tried to match that.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
11-14-17 05:25 PM - Post#236316    

Antonio + Darnell + Any 3 = 51% of possessions (79 poss)

92 ORAT
104 DRAT

All other combos = 49% of possessions (77 poss)
91 ORAT
95 DRAT

Much better at getting to the rim (41% of shots vs 33%), much worse at finishing there (37% vs 56%), many, many more 2PT Js (30% of shots vs 17%) and much higher FT Rate (39% vs. 22%).
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
11-14-17 05:36 PM - Post#236317    

eddie scott played 7 minutes in the first half and was a minus 5. Not great but I mean that seems like a pretty ordinary occurrence.


One thing that I thought was dumb - there should never be a minute of a close game (particularly one where the starters play as much as they do) where both Betley and Brodeur are off the court at the same time. What is this, Oklahoma City?
Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts 4438
Cvonvorys
11-14-17 06:31 PM - Post#236320    

  • mrjames Said:
Antonio + Darnell + Any 3 = 51% of possessions (79 poss)

92 ORAT
104 DRAT

All other combos = 49% of possessions (77 poss)
91 ORAT
95 DRAT

Much better at getting to the rim (41% of shots vs 33%), much worse at finishing there (37% vs 56%), many, many more 2PT Js (30% of shots vs 17%) and much higher FT Rate (39% vs. 22%).



Thanks for that. But please keep in mind, although I graduated from Penn, I was only a Communications Major, so if you could please indulge me (time permitting).

I know it's only 2 games, but do we have enough data where only Darnell or only Antonio is on the floor? I ask because I'm using the "P38 Eye Test Analysis Methodology" which shows that both of them fill the same role. The stats from the La Salle game are not favorable for Antonio and Darnell (poor outside shooting -- combined 7-23 & 0-4 from 3) and poor foul shooting (combined 8-16). From my living room watching the game, I'm screaming at SD... Begging him to put a "shooter" in the game. What are Caleb Woods stats (time permitting, of course)?



mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
11-14-17 07:10 PM - Post#236321    

That’s where the Matt Howard departure hurts. He was a great piece in that 1-3-1, because he defended his area well AND rebounded well. That allowed you to play/hide any number of bad defenders on the wings of that zone and not be in trouble defensively. Now that you’re forced to man, you need defenders that can play man - and sadly that doesn’t cross well with your best 3PT shooters.

On all of this, though, you’d need pretty overwhelming evidence right now to update your prior beliefs. In smaller samples, style tends to correlate better with longer-term outcomes than shooting percentage (at least on jumpers). So, for me, the concerning thing is that without that dynamic two-way guy like Howard, it seems like Stevie’s going to be choosing between offense and defense all year (the best defenders combine for a terrible “style” of offense - inefficient for today’s game), which could put a ceiling on where this team can go...
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
11-14-17 09:53 PM - Post#236340    

I tend to agree with P38 about the gameplan. I think we had the right guys out there for the matchup, and the strategy on offense was to have a team of guys who could get to the hoop. Which they did. A lot of little things could have gone either way in this one, playing against a team that may be better than even our highest realistic expectations (at least currently kenpom 109). It is frustrating for a whole slew of reasons nonetheless, but this is a game against a pretty good opponent that we very well could have won. More offense for us may well have resulted in less defense, and I thought we lost the game on defense over the last 3:30 or so.

Another note on why the sky might not be falling -- if we just shoot poorly from 3 (say 30%), we are 1-1 and maybe 2-0. If we just shoot ok, we're 2-0. And if we shoot it well, we're 2-0 with 2 pretty easy wins. That's in addition to the fact that we'd have won in regulation if Woods puts the ball in the basket.

So I worry about what the start might mean, but I'm not giving up yet.
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
11-14-17 09:55 PM - Post#236341    

I don't see this. Darnell has been our 3rd best player thus far. Whatever his limitations are, he's our best option.
Penn90
Masters Student
Posts 570
Penn90
11-14-17 09:58 PM - Post#236342    

If the team lives and dies by the three-pointer then that's not much of a strategy or foundation, especially when your outside shooters are basically interchangeable "meh" players.

Combine that with what looks like a disastrous recruiting class this season and all you can say for Donahue is that the program is no longer a dumpster fire. It's merely mediocre. Sad!
Leges sine moribus vanae

section110
Masters Student
Posts 847
11-14-17 10:28 PM - Post#236349    

And many of the missed layups were Antonio & Darnell driving the lane on 1 on 3 matchups. The lineup did play good defense until the second OT; but I thought Caleb should have been in a lot more to give us a second three point option & maybe make LaSalle play Betley a little more honestly.
UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts 1117
UPIA1968
11-14-17 10:36 PM - Post#236351    

AJ and Betley had few shorts because LaSalle overplayed them. That left Max alone and dared Woods and Foreman to shoot. Penn needs another offensive option. Let's hope Wood can step up.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3579
11-14-17 11:39 PM - Post#236355    

I agree. Wood has looked good. And AJ got post position plenty of times in both games but teams are overplaying him as you said. I would love to see more Caleb.
Charlie Fog
Masters Student
Posts 586
11-15-17 07:59 AM - Post#236363    

If Wood can keep his turnovers in check he should see more time.
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
11-15-17 08:51 AM - Post#236365    

His play as a shooter (in a small sample size) does make me wonder if we kind of messed him up by asking him to play PG last year. Once his role changed, he never seemed to get comfortable as a shooter. For two games at least, he looks great.

That said, though, we probably need to remember that it is a limited number of shots, and that everything looks better when the ball goes in the basket. Donahue and Jones are also capable of hot streaks, so it isn't necessarily dispositive that one guy's shots went in while the other guys' shots did not. Could just be luck of the draw.

Same goes for the team, of course. If we hit 3s at a decent clip the first two games, we would have a different record and a different impression of how things were going. And that would be despite the same (perhaps high variance) approach.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
11-15-17 10:02 AM - Post#236368    

Important to caveat that 40 poss is a super small sample, but here are Caleb's splits:

On Court:
115 ORAT
105 DRAT

Off Court:
84 ORAT
97 DRAT

Penn shoots 50% of its shots as threes when he's on the floor, versus 37% for all other possessions. There are a lot of other interesting things that I see but not going to dive into right now, because we're talking about just 40 poss. When Caleb gets into the triple-digit poss, we can start talking about some of those other things which seem to be very different when he's on court vs. off right now...
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
11-15-17 10:18 AM - Post#236371    

Mike, how would you set the starting 5? I understand you might not want to be pinned down, but I'd like you to be prescriptive even if it's general statements like "I'd like to see X get more minutes", "I think it would be interesting if Penn tried Y".

On the one hand I understand that two games really isn't enough to update your priors much, but I wasn't leaning towards this lineup configuration to begin with so I'm more willing to blow it up. The only thing I've updated is perhaps thinking Wood is a guy to try more than Sam Jones.

I was actually disappointed in Donahue's, um, Donahue decision. If a guy's good enough in your mind to merit 20+ minutes and the greenest of green lights, I'd like to think he's worth getting off the bench in the next game. I don't like the thought process there even as I'm not a huge Jackson fan.

I'll also say that while we seem to be crediting Penn for good defense while saying we had bad offense, I think it's as likely that both teams just had bad offenses. I get styles are a preference thing, but that game was excruciating to work and everything that's wrong with college basketball. Or would be if Donahue and Giannini called a lot more timeouts in the last 30 seconds to micromanage. At least they didn't do that.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
11-15-17 10:46 AM - Post#236374    

I don't have a good sense of what would work yet, though I would like Steve to throw a bunch of shooters out there together and see what happens (namely, how bad will the defense be?).

Way, way too early to feel good about saying definitive things about the rotation, and I don't blame Steve for trying some new things.
T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts 1169
11-15-17 11:27 AM - Post#236377    

FREE CALEB WOOD!
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 12480
11-15-17 12:39 PM - Post#236388    

  • Jeff2sf Said:
eddie scott played 7 minutes in the first half and was a minus 5. Not great but I mean that seems like a pretty ordinary occurrence.



And in those 7 minutes he was pretty much personally responsible for at least 6 points coming against (probably more), plus all the misses. It was good to see him take confident shots and I don't see why they won't fall in the future, but he compounded the misses by freshman d mistakes.

As far as Caleb Wood, that role will go to whoever is hotter, Caleb or Jackson. I wouldn't give up on Jackson quite yet, but I've been saying that for a season and a half...at some point he has to make shots at a 35% clip again.

My biggest gripes with the rotation were small minutes for Devin (unless he truly felt they'd be inferior defensively) and the inability to get a good shot for Betley. I know what they were trying to do, but as a coach you have to counter. Instead we relied on unsuccessful drives from the two guards and Max shots. I'd take Betley going to the hole and getting to the line any day over what we saw.

mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
11-15-17 02:18 PM - Post#236398    

Again... small sample, small sample, small sample, BUT:

Eddie Scott on floor (16% team poss, 25 poss):
78 ORAT
139 DRAT

Off floor (84% team poss, 132 poss):
94 ORAT
92 DRAT

Important to note that the member of that 2017 class that I heard (far and away) the best stuff about was Jelani Williams, so it's not surprising that with him sidelined, there isn't a lot of production coming from that class.



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