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Username Post: Lafayette
1979Quakers
Freshman
Posts 49
12-05-17 04:05 PM - Post#239130    

Wednesday at 8:00, Kirby Sports Center, Easton, PA. Although the Quakers should win handily, this game is a bit unnerving.
Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3218
12-05-17 04:21 PM - Post#239131    

Penn has a long and storied history of laying eggs at Kirby. Take nothing for granted.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-05-17 04:48 PM - Post#239133    

Unless we're playing Yale in a playoff game on a rainy March evening. Man was that one fun.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 18648
12-05-17 05:11 PM - Post#239135    

Remember that cheap shot to Schiffner!
Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3218
12-05-17 05:18 PM - Post#239136    

I remember a playoff game against Princeton in 1981, I think. Not a good night.
weinhauers_ghost
PhD Student
Posts 1026
12-05-17 05:45 PM - Post#239139    

I was there. Very bad night, indeed.
Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts 2396
Mike Porter
12-05-17 06:08 PM - Post#239140    

I was there for Yale only, thankfully.

Lafayette is much better than Howard, so based on last night we should take nothing for granted. They will be decidedly less athletic, but more organized. Will be curious to see who plays off the bench. Nice minutes for Simmons against Howard, but will be good to see if it translates to a game like this.


10Q
Professor
Posts 14454
12-05-17 06:09 PM - Post#239141    

Yes. That was the night I became a Princeton hater. We fell behind by 7 points and COULD NOT CATCH UP.
TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-05-17 06:52 PM - Post#239143    

Mike I agree - Lafayette is better than its record. It's a dangerous game.

I seem to remember 2 awful treks to Easton, once for a playoff game in the late 90's - maybe '97? - and once sometime in the '80s I think but don't remember the year. Bad memories.

Would like to see more of Caleb Wood. Simmons is an OK option off the bench if the other team doesn't have bruisers. I don't yet have a read on Scott - looks either wonderful or not, with little in between. Jones had a wild ORat/DRat of 170/69 last night - for whatever reason when he has a good game he's able to suppress the other team's offense in ways that are hard to explain.

13otto
Masters Student
Posts 505
13otto
12-05-17 08:40 PM - Post#239150    

  • TheLine Said:
I seem to remember 2 awful treks to Easton, once for a playoff game in the late 90's - maybe '97? - and once sometime in the '80s I think but don't remember the year. Bad memories.


The disappointing 90's playoff game vs. Princeton was in 1996, but that game was played at Lehigh's Stabler Arena, in Bethlehem (not Easton). We are 2-1 in Ivy Playoff games that were played in Easton - defeating Princeton in 1980 & Yale in 2002, but losing to Princeton in 1981.
http://www.letsgoquakers.com/

Charlie Fog
Masters Student
Posts 437
12-06-17 07:49 AM - Post#239200    

Crazy Otto has the best videos
TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-06-17 10:13 AM - Post#239203    

I always confuse Lehigh and Lafayette. Is there a difference between Easton and Bethlehem?

All I can remember is that awful ride out of there in traffic on that never-ending one lane road out of the arena area.


SteveChop
Masters Student
Posts 691
12-06-17 10:58 AM - Post#239207    

That would be Lehigh - you get there via Quakertown exit of NE Extension, 663, then 309, and then you make a right on the road that leads to Stabler Arena.

To go to Lafayette, you go up NE Extension one exit further (Allentown) and go on 22 East to the last exit in PA, make a left and go up the hill.

Both are accessible via GPS! LOL!

10Q
Professor
Posts 14454
12-06-17 11:32 AM - Post#239212    

My first memory is seeing a banner at Layafette reading "How 'bout them Pards".
frank
Sophomore
Posts 174
12-06-17 12:17 PM - Post#239215    

Any TV? I seem to remember that the Patriot League has free streaming.
10Q
Professor
Posts 14454
12-06-17 12:21 PM - Post#239217    

990 am has free radio. No band width required.
PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-06-17 12:33 PM - Post#239221    

Here is the link to the game:

https://watchstadium.com/live/penn-at-lafayett e/


Okoro Dude
Junior
Posts 287
12-06-17 12:36 PM - Post#239222    

I also think it is on an Allentown TV station channel 60 WBPH. I think I get that channel on Comcast in Delco (maybe channel 22 and 1060 for anyone else in that area).

Key tonight will be to get the extra possessions (Lafayette has significant negative turnover margin and is terrible offensive rebounding) and keep them off the 3-pt line because they have pretty good shooters and they take a very large proportion of their shots from 3. If it is a contest of who makes more open shots, we will lose a game we should win most nights. We have to get better shots than them by forcing them away from comfort zone and dominating boards.
Stuart Suss
Masters Student
Posts 944
12-06-17 12:44 PM - Post#239223    

The Penn - Lafayette game is being televised on WBPH, channel 60 in Bethlehem. That channel is available to DirecTV subscribers (and probably also DISH) in the Philadelphia market. It may be available on cable systems in the Philadelphia area. Here is a list of WBPH cable affiliations in Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey, This 2012 document is the most recent list found on their web site.

For viewers outside the local media market, here is a web site that is offering a video link to the game. The same rules apply. To avoid getting your computer hacked, don't download anything and don't pay for anything.

Tip off time is SCHEDULED for 8:00 pm. I have used CAPS to alert you to the fact that the Lafayette women are tipping off against the Princeton women at 6:00 pm, and the men's game may not start at the scheduled time.

Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3218
12-06-17 12:49 PM - Post#239225    

Stu Suss Haiku:

Supplying the links,
Perceptive analysis,
The essential Stu.
Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts 2169
12-06-17 12:52 PM - Post#239227    

Stat to remember while watching tonight's game:

Penn's record this season when Darnell has 10 or more field goal attempts: 0-4.

Penn's record this season when Darnell has 9 or fewer field goal attempts: 6-0.
Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3218
12-06-17 12:53 PM - Post#239228    

So, in addition to chasing Lafayette's shooters off the 3 pt line, we have to chase Darnell off as well?
TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-06-17 01:28 PM - Post#239232    

I think the key is to not get into a situation where Darnell feels he needs to play the hero.

yoyo
Junior
Posts 206
12-06-17 01:37 PM - Post#239233    

that should go for the remainder of the season too
Penndemonium
Masters Student
Posts 732
12-06-17 02:35 PM - Post#239236    

That was my main issue with Darnell. I've written before about how he has historically slowed down the ball movement, doesn't have great vision, and also misses the shots when he penetrates (which he does decently). I've noticed some improvement in the Monmouth and Howard games, but I'd like to see more of what he does under pressure. Or more to the point, I'd like to see him do a bit less and keep the offense moving.


  • Cvonvorys Said:
Stat to remember while watching tonight's game:

Penn's record this season when Darnell has 10 or more field goal attempts: 0-4.

Penn's record this season when Darnell has 9 or fewer field goal attempts: 6-0.


palestra38
Professor
Posts 18648
12-06-17 02:56 PM - Post#239238    

I am pretty sure this is Channel 55 on Comcast here in Philadelphia
TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-06-17 02:58 PM - Post#239239    

Darnell runs the fast break well and plays better in up-tempo games. Slower half-court games are another matter. Movement and spacing tend to bog down in particular when he and Antonio are in the game together.

Darnell is better at finishing near the hoop than Antonio is, though Antonio is better at getting near the hoop so it's close to a wash between the two. It would help if either were better at finishing or at outside shooting.

PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-06-17 03:49 PM - Post#239242    

  • Silver Maple Said:
So, in addition to chasing Lafayette's shooters off the 3 pt line, we have to chase Darnell off as well?



I would love to see AJ block one of Darnell's 3 pt attempts!

penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 04:12 PM - Post#239245    

  • TheLine Said:
It would help if either were better at finishing or at outside shooting.




To say nothing about shooting from the charity stripe.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 18648
12-06-17 04:15 PM - Post#239246    

But we've been defending the FT pretty well, which makes up for that somewhat
TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-06-17 05:09 PM - Post#239247    

Foreman is second best regular at FT% at .711. That isn't a major issue in his game.

Overall the team is shooting FTs at a .620 clip. Yikes.

Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3218
12-06-17 05:13 PM - Post#239248    

They may be hitting at 62%, but it feels like 25%.
SteveChop
Masters Student
Posts 691
12-06-17 05:18 PM - Post#239249    

I know that Mike has written about this but I still don't understand what "free throw defense" means (other than that little move AJ does which caused Monmouth guys to be in the lane too soon 3 times).
Penndemonium
Masters Student
Posts 732
12-06-17 05:44 PM - Post#239250    

I haven't seen enough games with Antonio Woods to really understand how he affects the flow of a game. In the 3 games I've seen this season, I don't see a clear impact. With Foreman, I can draw a bit from last year and a bit from this year. Tiebreaker goes to Foreman for playing time if Caleb Wood starts to get in the mix more.

Wood would help the offense quite a bit. I like what he did shooting the 3, and then cutting to the hoop for backdoor passes when they overplayed him.

  • TheLine Said:
Darnell runs the fast break well and plays better in up-tempo games. Slower half-court games are another matter. Movement and spacing tend to bog down in particular when he and Antonio are in the game together.

Darnell is better at finishing near the hoop than Antonio is, though Antonio is better at getting near the hoop so it's close to a wash between the two. It would help if either were better at finishing or at outside shooting.




palestra38
Professor
Posts 18648
12-06-17 05:47 PM - Post#239251    

There is no question that Wood should get serious PT with the way he is playing. He adds another dimension to the Penn offense.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 05:57 PM - Post#239253    

  • TheLine Said:
Foreman is second best regular at FT% at .711. That isn't a major issue in his game.




It is, actually. For a PG, a career FT% of 71% is not great. He was 75.8% his freshman year but has only shot 70-71% every year after that.

Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts 2169
12-06-17 06:02 PM - Post#239255    

So to clarify my statement on Darnell, I like him and think he's the best point guard on the team right now. My criticism is that I would want to see him trying to make those around him better, i.e., more assists and less shots. Can he penetrate and then instead of shooting, kick the ball out to an open Betley, Wood, Donahue, Jones, Scott, etc.? Am I being unfair?
Streamers
Postdoc
Posts 2478
Streamers
12-06-17 06:39 PM - Post#239257    

  • palestra38 Said:
There is no question that Wood should get serious PT with the way he is playing. He adds another dimension to the Penn offense.



I’m not convinced yet. I’d like to see him put up points against a good team that takes him seriously on defense. At least he isn’t turning the ball over as much.

palestra38
Professor
Posts 18648
12-06-17 06:43 PM - Post#239258    

I agree that the jury is out whether he can play against the more athletic teams like our Big 5 opponents, but if used as an offensive secret weapon, it should help us even if he gives up something on defense as long as he doesn't turn it over as he did last year.


TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-06-17 06:46 PM - Post#239259    

Yes and no.

We play a motion half court offense where the ball goes through the center a lot. It's not entirely the guards' responsibility to generate the assists.

Watch Foreman and Woods run the break. Both of them are decent passers.

The problem with both is that neither is enough of a threat driving to the hoop or hitting a 3 and the defenses play them accordingly. Your criticism is valid in this respect.

I'd rather see more of Wood and perhaps Jones, less of Foreman/Woods.

PN, I agree 71% isn't great but it is averagish for a college player and it's not like it's bringing the team average down.

Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts 2396
Mike Porter
12-06-17 07:43 PM - Post#239260    

  • TheLine Said:
Foreman is second best regular at FT% at .711. That isn't a major issue in his game.

Overall the team is shooting FTs at a .620 clip. Yikes.




Not to pile on, but in D1 games his FT shooting is 69.4%...

Not as steady as you need from your senior PG. Also find it odd that in a few games we worked to get him the ball at the end, when it should clearly be going to Betley.

I think Foreman has really improved himself and does a few things very well (great rebounding for a guard, doesn't turn it over much) and generally is a calming force, but his challenges are areas where there are already holes on this team, e.g. poor shooting (15% from 3 right now) and court vision. When he drives, he's putting his head down and headed toward the hoop.

In general I think we just need less of both Foreman and Woods at the same time.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 08:20 PM - Post#239264    

The issue with Darnell and free throws is when he misses them. The memories last longer when these occur in end game scenarios. Not to mention front ends.

Game is on comcast channel 19 in the northwest burbs.
PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-06-17 09:13 PM - Post#239292    

I didn't see it mentioned but Devon Goodman was a DNP vs Howard. Let's see if he makes an appearance tonight.
Stuart Suss
Masters Student
Posts 944
12-06-17 09:17 PM - Post#239298    

Brown leads Providence by 8, six minutes into the second half. Brown has led wire to wire with a lead that was once 15 points.

The game is on Fox Sports 2.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:18 PM - Post#239300    

Williams is listed in the Game Tracker's roster. Is that a new development?
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:20 PM - Post#239301    

If they can hold on, it will be the IL's best win of the year by a country mile.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:27 PM - Post#239314    

Foreman's first shot is an airball.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:29 PM - Post#239317    

Airball aside, Foreman has done a nice job trying to set up others.

Lafayette's size is giving us some problems on the other end.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:34 PM - Post#239321    

Right now we are missing a lot of very open shots from distance from folks we want to see shooting the rock.

Foreman continues to impress as the floor leader, though--making a variety of good plays
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 09:36 PM - Post#239324    

Why can't Jackson make wide open 3s? I just don't get it. Remember the days of guys like Schiffner and Zoller kept getting better from 3 as their careers went along?
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:36 PM - Post#239325    

9 minutes into the game, someone other than AJ scores.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:39 PM - Post#239328    

Donahue can't stay in the game if they play man to man defense. His guy is abusing him.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:42 PM - Post#239335    

Excellent ball movement gets Jones a wide open corner 3.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:44 PM - Post#239336    

Brown up 1 as they go under 5 minutes in Providence.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:45 PM - Post#239337    

Foreman takes it all the way to the hoop--and finishes. Well played.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:46 PM - Post#239338    

Sam on fire.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:48 PM - Post#239341    

Sam with another, although the whistle had already blown.

Goodman gets in tonight--no DNP
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:50 PM - Post#239344    

Might have been his swan song for the night, though--completely imeffective.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:51 PM - Post#239345    

  • penn nation Said:
Brown up 1 as they go under 5 minutes in Providence.



Tied with under 3 to play.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:52 PM - Post#239347    

  • penn nation Said:
  • penn nation Said:
Brown up 1 as they go under 5 minutes in Providence.



Tied with under 3 to play.



WOW--an amazing stuff by Brown, go the other way to tie it again. That was SC Top 10 worthy.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:53 PM - Post#239349    

  • penn nation Said:
Foreman takes it all the way to the hoop--and finishes. Well played.



Now Woods gets the job done from up close.

rbg
Masters Student
Posts 803
12-06-17 09:54 PM - Post#239350    

Brown last beat Providence by 10 in 12/2014.

Brown has a big collapse at home against 300+ Central Connecticut this weekend, then takes Providence to the wire. Go figure.
Chip Bayers
Postdoc
Posts 4684
Chip Bayers
12-06-17 09:55 PM - Post#239351    

Build lead to 7, immediately have consecutive horrible possessions on both ends.

penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:56 PM - Post#239354    

Brown down 1 with 1 minute and change left--out of timeouts.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 09:56 PM - Post#239355    

Back up to 7. Maybe they don't squander momentum this time with a bad turnover.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 09:59 PM - Post#239358    

Surprisingly they're not really doubling AJ--at least not when he initially gets the ball.
Chip Bayers
Postdoc
Posts 4684
Chip Bayers
12-06-17 09:59 PM - Post#239359    

No Scott, very limited Simmons. Is Scott even on the bench?

penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:03 PM - Post#239360    

We only shot one FT, which is probably for the best.

They're pretty much avoiding having Woods and Foreman both out there at the same time, which I think has been a positive.

Sam gave us some needed energy and points, but we may have shot that wad for the game.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:04 PM - Post#239361    

  • penn nation Said:
Brown down 1 with 1 minute and change left--out of timeouts.



Brown down 3, with the ball, 20 seconds to play. Valiant effort by that team--great game to watch.

penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:05 PM - Post#239364    

  • penn nation Said:
  • penn nation Said:
Brown down 1 with 1 minute and change left--out of timeouts.



Brown down 3, with the ball, 20 seconds to play. Valiant effort by that team--great game to watch.




And it counts! Brown with a chance to tie at the line.

rbg
Masters Student
Posts 803
12-06-17 10:09 PM - Post#239366    

T-Choh with the huge old fashion three point play with 16 seconds left. Providence fails to hit a last second 3 and the Bears head to overtime.

Agreed - it's an exciting game to watch.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:09 PM - Post#239369    

  • penn nation Said:
  • penn nation Said:
  • penn nation Said:
Brown down 1 with 1 minute and change left--out of timeouts.



Brown down 3, with the ball, 20 seconds to play. Valiant effort by that team--great game to watch.




And it counts! Brown with a chance to tie at the line.




Choh hits it...barely. Providence misses a corner 3 at the other end...and we go to OT.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:13 PM - Post#239370    

It would be nice if Comcast would start to carry foxsports2..

Good question about Scott. Weird that he wouldn't get any time.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:15 PM - Post#239371    

Brown is up 2 with 3:23 to play, and its interior defense has been great so far in OT.
rbg
Masters Student
Posts 803
12-06-17 10:15 PM - Post#239372    

Penn's not doing too well from three - 3 for 14 (1 for 11 when not couting Sam Jones). However, 12-23 from two.

Lafayette is 2-11 from three and 8-17 from two. Fortunatley, Penn has taken 9 more shots.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:18 PM - Post#239373    

This Lafayette senior is really annoying. We can't let him think they have a chance to win. 7-0 Lafayette run and now a turnover.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:20 PM - Post#239374    

Now it's a 7-0 run. Was 5 before. Lead down to 4 after Darnell airballs an 8 footer and the senior scores again.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:22 PM - Post#239375    

AJ does a nice job of finding Caleb when the double comes and now he hits ANOTHER after an easy steal. Thank you Caleb.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:23 PM - Post#239376    

  • Quakers03 Said:
AJ does a nice job of finding Caleb when the double comes and now he hits ANOTHER after an easy steal. Thank you Caleb.



That's an interesting look with Sam, Caleb and Ryan all out there at the same time. Someone should be open to shoot a 3.

penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:24 PM - Post#239378    

  • penn nation Said:
Brown is up 2 with 3:23 to play, and its interior defense has been great so far in OT.



Brown runs out of gas and loses by 3.

penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:25 PM - Post#239379    

  • penn nation Said:
  • penn nation Said:
Brown is up 2 with 3:23 to play, and its interior defense has been great so far in OT.



Brown runs out of gas and loses by 3.




And Princeton loses--again.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:26 PM - Post#239380    

What a shame.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:26 PM - Post#239381    

  • penn nation Said:
  • penn nation Said:
  • penn nation Said:
Brown is up 2 with 3:23 to play, and its interior defense has been great so far in OT.



Brown runs out of gas and loses by 3.




And Princeton loses--again.




Darnell goes 1 for 2, but the 2nd wouldn't have counted anyways with that line violation.

penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:28 PM - Post#239382    

  • Quakers03 Said:
What a shame.



At least that'll stop any kvetching from them about a second Ivy bid for them or an NIT bid from them.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:33 PM - Post#239383    

I don't understand why so many guys get great position and won't shoot with their offhand. Fouls against the two bigs are mounting a bit. Not smart fouls either.
Chip Bayers
Postdoc
Posts 4684
Chip Bayers
12-06-17 10:33 PM - Post#239384    

Max with the world’s laziest pass to the wing creates a turnover and foul at other end.

Does A.J. have a single point since scoring the first 10 of the game?

penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:34 PM - Post#239385    

  • Chip Bayers Said:
Max with the world’s laziest pass to the wing creates a turnover and foul at other end.

Does A.J. have a single point since scoring the first 10 of the game?



Yes, and no. Max has been pretty sloppy tonight all-around.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:35 PM - Post#239386    

Back to back threes beautifully executed by Antonio and Ryan. Antonios 3, when he had tons of time, looked great. Up 12.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:36 PM - Post#239387    

The Betley 3 was just Lafayette being asleep at the wheel, though.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:36 PM - Post#239388    

  • Quakers03 Said:
Back to back threes beautifully executed by Antonio and Ryan. Antonios 3, when he had tons of time, looked great. Up 12.



Yes, the launch angle was way, way up there.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:37 PM - Post#239389    

To say AJ has had a bad game since that start would be an understatement. That left hand couldn't have been more open last time. Klinewski has completely shut him down.
Chip Bayers
Postdoc
Posts 4684
Chip Bayers
12-06-17 10:37 PM - Post#239390    

Antonio has a nice arc on his shot, but I hate his footwork on his 3. Feet too close together and staggered - it never looks like he can repeat that and stay on balance.

penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:38 PM - Post#239391    

  • Quakers03 Said:
To say AJ has had a bad game since that start would be an understatement. That left hand couldn't have been more open last time. Klinewski has completely shut him down.



Well, it's pretty easy to play a guy when you can leave one side completely unguarded.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:38 PM - Post#239392    

  • penn nation Said:
The Betley 3 was just Lafayette being asleep at the wheel, though.


Disagree. It was the nice extra pass from Antonio that made it look that way.

Now Ryan hits from deep. If they could only shoot 35% on the year from 3 we'd really have something.
Chip Bayers
Postdoc
Posts 4684
Chip Bayers
12-06-17 10:40 PM - Post#239393    

Caleb off the drive as ineffective as Antonio and Foreman typically are.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:40 PM - Post#239394    

Lafayette already in the bonus. Lead down to 8. Can't let them hang around. They'll continue to hit free throws.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:41 PM - Post#239395    

Lafayette already in the bonus with 10 minutes to play. This is gonna take a while.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:43 PM - Post#239396    

"You know these guys can shoot free throws."

Way to do your research guys.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:44 PM - Post#239398    

Even on an open drive AJ is going up on the left side with his right hand. I don't get it.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:44 PM - Post#239399    

Brodeur has been huge on giving us 2nd chance points this half.
Chip Bayers
Postdoc
Posts 4684
Chip Bayers
12-06-17 10:44 PM - Post#239400    

A.J. finally gets aggressive and scores.

Jackson Donahue is a guaranteed minimum two bad turnovers per game.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:46 PM - Post#239401    

Well at least he makes up for it by going 1-5 from 3 every game.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:46 PM - Post#239402    

Nice finish by Darnell to give us a chance at a 3 point play.

But that outside shot of his--fuggehdaboutit.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:47 PM - Post#239403    

Is that Eddie in street clothes? Penn can't pull away. 7 now.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:49 PM - Post#239405    

Announcer:

"Haven't seen [Brodeur] turn left yet"
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:50 PM - Post#239406    

  • penn nation Said:
Announcer:

"Haven't seen [Brodeur] turn left yet"



Until he finally did.

Chip Bayers
Postdoc
Posts 4684
Chip Bayers
12-06-17 10:50 PM - Post#239407    

Eddie appears to have one of the gray warmup tops on, way at the end of the bench next to Jelani.

penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:51 PM - Post#239408    

  • Quakers03 Said:
Is that Eddie in street clothes?



Sure looked like it to me.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:51 PM - Post#239409    

With what look like khakis.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:53 PM - Post#239410    

Darnell with a nice rebound and then dish to Max who can't finish but somehow goes 2-2!
Chip Bayers
Postdoc
Posts 4684
Chip Bayers
12-06-17 10:53 PM - Post#239411    

Very skinny khakis. And his bright red kicks. Jelani next to him is wearing dress shoes.

Chip Bayers
Postdoc
Posts 4684
Chip Bayers
12-06-17 10:56 PM - Post#239412    

Letting them cut this to 6 is just embarrassing.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:57 PM - Post#239413    

Time and again this happens. Max makes that bunny and it was over. These are some big half court possessions and eventual free throws. It's never easy.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 10:57 PM - Post#239414    

  • Chip Bayers Said:
Letting them cut this to 6 is just embarrassing.



Caleb had about 10 seconds to line up that 3, missed it, and then didn't get back in time on the other end.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 10:58 PM - Post#239415    

Another righty force and miss from AJ. I do not get it.
Chip Bayers
Postdoc
Posts 4684
Chip Bayers
12-06-17 10:59 PM - Post#239416    

Jesus Christ what a horrible pass from Betley.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 11:01 PM - Post#239417    

Now a terrible foul after a Lafayette o board.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 11:01 PM - Post#239418    

Maybe get Antonio out of the game? Can't shoot feee throws.
Chip Bayers
Postdoc
Posts 4684
Chip Bayers
12-06-17 11:02 PM - Post#239419    

This is where you really wish you had an actual effective PG who could find a seam and score or find the open man with under 10 on the shot clock. Or make his FTs when he’s fouled.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 11:02 PM - Post#239420    

Here comes Darnell with his every game crucial one and one.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 11:02 PM - Post#239421    

Short. Shocker.
Chip Bayers
Postdoc
Posts 4684
Chip Bayers
12-06-17 11:03 PM - Post#239422    

Nice defense.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 11:03 PM - Post#239423    

I have no words for them designing a play to get it into Darnell's hands.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 11:05 PM - Post#239424    

I've been saying for some time that we are going to lose some IL games because of this. Too many players on this team have problems at the line.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 11:06 PM - Post#239425    

Well, a win is a win. As has been said time and again, they really need a pg. More free throw misses as AJ gets one and Antonio goes 0-2. Lol.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 11:09 PM - Post#239426    

Yes, the good news is that we are winning even if the competition isn't all that impressive. Even our better teams over the past 30 years would end up losing a game like this on occasion.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 11:19 PM - Post#239427    

The positives:

AJs opening 5 minutes, Sam and Caleb making 3s, Betley being Betley (aside from that late pass), a few nice Max moves and some crucial late rebounding from Darnell.

Another win. After the way we have lost games over the years, it is nice to accumulate some wins.

The negatives:

Why in the world won't AJ go left? Even the announcers were seeing it at the end. He made one nice spin to the left and finished with his right hand. No chance he's going to succeed against a crafty defender only showing a right hand.

The free throws. Again. Antonio MUST be subbed out in must-foul situations and we should never be running inbounds plays for Darnell when you have Betley on the floor too. Once again he comes up short in a crucial one and one while Ryan makes his.

It's also tough to see Devon's growth completely stunted and only a few mins from Simmons. Eddie being hurt didn't help either. He could have had some success vs a team like this.

Congrats to Harvard on their huge 8-0 run to score 47 and beat powerhouse Fordham by two. Watch this league soar!
Basketball Bruce
Freshman
Posts 29
12-06-17 11:22 PM - Post#239429    

Penn has a point guard. The coach just refuses to play him. His name is Jake Silpe. And if he would ever get a chance to play decent minutes, he would prove that it. I have looked back at the forums from his freshman year. Silpe "continued to drop dimes" "Silpe just finds guys open whenever he has the ball" "another great bullet pass from Silpe". That's what you all wrote about him. Yeah. He didn't have much of a three. But tell me. Does Darnell? Antonio? Devon? Jackson?

There is something very wrong here. Silpe is a South Jersey kid who had an incredible high school career and won South Jersey player of the year from two newspapers, including the Inquirer. I'm sorry. But I find it incredibly hard to believe that he could not add value to this team. SD should give him a chance to play with AJ and Ryan and Max. He is unselfish and will make them better. He can't shoot any worse from the three than Devon did in the first 8 games. And again, Darnell isn't setting the world on fire with his shot.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 18648
12-06-17 11:25 PM - Post#239430    

You're being harsh on Antonio. The game was over when he missed those 2....he simply has to get better at that, but his 3 pointer and then assist for a Betley 3 was the key moment of the game. He also is our best defensive guard, hands down.

But free throws for the entire team except for Betley are a terrible problem.

For those watching on TV, was that post-game a hot mess or what? After calling the game, the Lafayette play by play guy blew every name in the recap.

7 of 9. I'll take it for sure. These are games we would have lost over the last 5 years.
penn62
PhD Student
Posts 1053
12-06-17 11:27 PM - Post#239431    

AJ turns into a crowd...toward the middle. And he needs to make his move right away. With league cut to 4,I lost the transmission AGAIN.
And why is it a good women’s team shoots better free throws than we do.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 11:33 PM - Post#239432    

  • palestra38 Said:


For those watching on TV, was that post-game a hot mess or what? After calling the game, the Lafayette play by play guy blew every name in the recap.





After enduring the Howard feed I'll have nothing bad to say about any other team's coverage.

penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 11:35 PM - Post#239433    

  • penn62 Said:
AJ turns into a crowd...toward the middle.



And fades away. And it is so incredibly predictable that you can choreograph each step of the dance.

That said, he did have a nice game on the boards, at least in the second half, which made a difference.

rbg
Masters Student
Posts 803
12-06-17 11:45 PM - Post#239436    

Much better from three in the second half (7-9).

The free throws are another story....
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-06-17 11:45 PM - Post#239437    

I'm not being unfair to Antonio at all. You know I like and prefer him in the great debate and he should be in at the end. But NOT when the other team has no choice but to foul.

Guess what Bruce, I completely agree with you. I don't think Jake has been given a fair shot since his initial struggles. I'm not at practice so I don't know what goes on but I don't understand why he was never given another real shot. Maybe his defense?
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-06-17 11:57 PM - Post#239438    

  • rbg Said:
Much better from three in the second half (7-9).

The free throws are another story....



We had open threes for most of the night. We were ice cold early, but you couldn't fault the shot selection.

In the second half Foreman decided to shoot more, including from long range, which is usually not a great idea.

Basketball Bruce
Freshman
Posts 29
12-07-17 12:09 AM - Post#239441    



Guess what Bruce, I completely agree with you. I don't think Jake has been given a fair shot since his initial struggles.

And to this I would say, what freshman doesn't struggle? They all struggle as they adapt to the game.


I'm not at practice so I don't know what goes on but I don't understand why he was never given another real shot. Maybe his defense?

Other players were given a chance to show improvement. Players often improve from freshman year to sophomore year. Jake was never given that opportunity. With regard to practice, none of us are there. But everything I saw in him in high school and what I have heard about him since tells me he is giving 100% in practice. The kid loves the game. You can just see it in his body language on and off the court. Even when he got in for the last minute of the Villanova game, he was locked in. Directing traffic. Diving for a loose ball, finding the open player. And that's after sitting on the bench all game. Down over 20. Against Villanova. Playing garbage minutes. I just don't get it. I really feel sorry for the kid, who, by the way, always looks really engaged on the bench.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-07-17 12:44 AM - Post#239446    

I don't disagree with anything you have said. I was actually surprised he wasn't on the transfer list. I still thought his game had a chance to land him somewhere else for some PT.
Basketball Bruce
Freshman
Posts 29
12-07-17 01:25 AM - Post#239449    

I am sure he didn’t transfer because he is at Wharton. You don’t give that up for basketball unless you are going to the NBA. That’s what makes his situation even more upsetting. I’m sure he’s working really hard in between practices, sitting on the bench at games and traveling. The kid must be so mentally strong to deal with this. SD has no idea what he’s missing.
PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-07-17 02:02 AM - Post#239450    

Tough for some of these guys to get few or no minutes and prove themselves. Jarrod, Devon, yes even Jake....Hard to know if they can consistently contribute on a crowded roster. For now what's working won't be tinkered with too much is my guess. The rotations aren't going to get much bigger as the conference slate approaches. I was surprised Jarrod only got a cameo in the first half. Max turned it over 4 times. He has played well except for the turnovers. AJ has really played well the last 3 games after looking out of it down in Florida. His lack of a left a hand will be his nemesis though.

When is the last time Darnell has hit a 3? Last year? Good to see me some Sam Jones....and Caleb continued his strong play. AJ and Betley carried us and the defense continues to be strong.
Penndemonium
Masters Student
Posts 732
12-07-17 02:39 AM - Post#239451    

Yeah, Silpe could be an interesting look with this squad - especially if he can shoot threes.
mbaprof
Sophomore
Posts 131
12-07-17 09:09 AM - Post#239454    

I thought the broadcast was nice with lots of local color, technically it worked quite well with my ipad and apple tv. NO complaints after Howard and it was free! Did not stick around for post game

AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts 3864
12-07-17 09:36 AM - Post#239456    

I agree with Pennfan10 that it is unlikely to see any major changes in the rotation. In fact, I'm happy that it seems so settled at this point in the season after so much turmoil in past years.

The Howard and Lafayette games are precursors to the type of games we are likely to see once the Ivy season comes around. This team is imperfect and will need to play defense every night and battle, but the intensity level is good, the team chemistry is also good and the ball movement is so much better than it's been the past few years.

We are going to have some good shooting nights and some not so good shooting nights. The ability to compete at the top of the league will depend on how we compete on those nights where we shoot the ball poorly.

Like everyone else, I recognize that the Achilles heal is FT shooting which is an essential component in closing out games. It's perplexing. We don't have that 90% FT shooter who can control the scoreboard at the end of the game. In fact - we have just the opposite. Can we address this? I don't know. But it's a weakness.
TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-07-17 09:41 AM - Post#239457    

Broadcast was great. Announcing team did a super job - objective, followed the game, bothered to learn about the opposing team, including how to pronounce names - stuff that should be commonplace but unfortunately isn't.

I'm going to agree with P38 and defend Antonio Woods. He never takes a play off on the offensive or defensive end, generally makes good decisions, doesn't turn the ball over, and plays the game with zero sense of entitlement. He was on the court late because we had the lead and he's trusted for his defense and to not do anything stupid on offense. I'm OK with that.

TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-07-17 09:45 AM - Post#239458    

Oh, and now that Wood is finally getting the playing time he deserves do we now need a FREE SAM JONES movement? I don't know what he needs to do to earn more PT. He's a great shooter, gobbles rebounds and advanced metrics say he isn't hurting the defense.

PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-07-17 10:27 AM - Post#239464    

Advanced metrics definitely say he won’t hurt us defensively when he isn’t playing. I don’t know how the metrics can be reliable for a guy with spotty playing time over two years. He obviously isn’t a regular because of defense. That said I like having him out there.
yoyo
Junior
Posts 206
12-07-17 10:38 AM - Post#239466    

Can we get Steve Danley to teach Max how to finish around the rim?
AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts 3864
12-07-17 10:45 AM - Post#239467    

Individual DRAT stats are poor indicators. I think even Mike James would admit that they reflect more on the team effort as opposed to the individual's effort.

The pattern with both Jackson and Sam is if they get in a game and jack up that 26 foot clanger within seconds, they are headed to the bench. If it goes in (a rarity) - well that's a different story. If they find their shots within the flow of the offense, they are far more successful and often help the team and stay on the court longer.

Having said that, neither plays very good defense so those shots better fall. Further - Caleb Wood is actually a pretty decent defender who can easily become an above average defender and does what they do well even better. so IMHO, the coach is utilizing all three appropriately. What obviously impacts PT in individual games is our foul situation. If Ryan picks up two quick ones, PT for role players at the wing position expands. Complicating matters is Eddie Scott's role when he's healthy, although I think he is better suited as a 3/4 than Sam is and impacts Sam's PT more than Jackson's.
TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-07-17 11:02 AM - Post#239468    

You guys aren't saying anything we don't already know.

But Sam does have a real nice outside shot, has been doing a nice job on the boards, and as much as he has a rep as a weak defender - and I'm not saying it isn't deserved - the fact is that he hasn't hurt the defense either. I don't know what we have to lose by extending his minutes. We play too many minutes of games with only one outside threat on the court - is that winning basketball?

palestra38
Professor
Posts 18648
12-07-17 11:11 AM - Post#239469    

If that team with only one shooter is the far superior defensive team (which is what we saw against LaSalle and Towson), there are times we have to go that route. Clearly, it is better to have 2 outside options than one on offense. It also is better to not let the other team outscore you.
TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-07-17 11:25 AM - Post#239470    

There are going to be times when playing a lineup of 3 defense first players and and 2 good but not great offensive players isn't going to cut it. Plus I'd think either Woods or Foreman would be more effective if they had more options. That lineup is a big reason why the offense stagnates.

Better to expand Jones' role now and see how it goes. Maybe we lose less on defense than you'd think. We certainly pick up a lot on offense.

Some of the best moments of the game were when Penn had multiple outside scorers on the court together. Lafayette couldn't deal with it. Someone was always open.

AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts 3864
12-07-17 11:35 AM - Post#239472    

Betley is often on the court with another shooter. And Caleb Wood is often that guy and the first sub off the bench replacing either Darnell or Antonio.

It's true there are times when we have only one shooter on the court, but just as often are the times we see miss after miss from the guys we consider our shooters.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-07-17 11:41 AM - Post#239473    

  • TheLine Said:
I'm going to agree with P38 and defend Antonio Woods. He never takes a play off on the offensive or defensive end, generally makes good decisions, doesn't turn the ball over, and plays the game with zero sense of entitlement. He was on the court late because we had the lead and he's trusted for his defense and to not do anything stupid on offense. I'm OK with that.



Did I miss the part where I criticized the kid? Is what I said wrong? When the other team has no choice but to foul, why in the world wouldn't you go offense defense when you could? You then get him back in for the eventual free throw miss so he can play D. I am one of the biggest Antonio fans you'll find and have been arguing with Jeff for years on the great debate.
TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-07-17 11:42 AM - Post#239474    

And Caleb was buried on the bench to start the season. He was an afterthought.

Jones is a .375 career 3 point shooter. In close to 400 attempts. This isn't a small sample size, he's legitimately good at it.

Is your argument that we should bury Jones on the bench?

TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-07-17 11:46 AM - Post#239475    

I'm just agreeing with P38 and complementing what Woods is doing right, that's all.

Sometimes we all spend time harping on what the players are doing wrong and not enough on what they are doing right. After having to endure what we did during the dark years, I appreciate a guy like Woods who has his head in the game all the time.

PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-07-17 11:48 AM - Post#239477    

The argument is that Caleb is just as good a 3pt shooter and does more for the team. Sam can shoot the rock, no doubt, but he can't do anything else on offense (can't beat anyone off the dribble, can't play in the paint, not particularly a good passer) he is only effective if his guy has to double someone else or we get a defensive rotation lapse because he only shoots a stand still 3. That's a pretty limited skill set on offense. On defense he pursues the ball off the boards effectively so can be helpful but he struggles to stay in front of anyone and isn't physical enough to push a 4/5 off their spot on a switch so he limits the defensive options, regardless of advance metrics.

I am a big Sam Jones fan and would love to see him more but I can definitely see why SD struggles to keep him on the floor for long stretches, particularly vs man defense.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-07-17 11:55 AM - Post#239481    

You'll hear no arguments from me. The floater he hit in the lane was a big one (as opposed to other guards who can't hit rim on those shots), and as I said in the thread, the back to back 3's that he set hit and then set-up changed the game.

What do we think has happened to Devon?
AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts 3864
12-07-17 12:02 PM - Post#239482    

"Is your argument that we should bury Jones on the bench?"

Pretty much so. We have much better options. PT opens up when those better options get in foul trouble early.

Last night Betley played 35 minutes and Caleb 26. Jackson played 18. Sam got a little time and delivered - but, of course, there was no Eddie Scott option available.
SteveDanley
Freshman
Posts 96
12-07-17 12:03 PM - Post#239483    

  • yoyo Said:
Can we get Steve Danley to teach Max how to finish around the rim?



Nostalgia is getting out of hand when folks remember me as a good finisher

I've talked to or worked with one or two of the bigs over the last few years -- not Max though -- but it's harder to do it regularly now that I'm not on campus as much, and it's a little more complicated in season.

SteveDanley
Freshman
Posts 96
12-07-17 12:06 PM - Post#239485    

  • PennFan10 Said:
The argument is that Caleb is just as good a 3pt shooter and does more for the team. Sam can shoot the rock, no doubt, but he can't do anything else on offense (can't beat anyone off the dribble, can't play in the paint, not particularly a good passer) he is only effective if his guy has to double someone else or we get a defensive rotation lapse because he only shoots a stand still 3. That's a pretty limited skill set on offense. On defense he pursues the ball off the boards effectively so can be helpful but he struggles to stay in front of anyone and isn't physical enough to push a 4/5 off their spot on a switch so he limits the defensive options, regardless of advance metrics.

I am a big Sam Jones fan and would love to see him more but I can definitely see why SD struggles to keep him on the floor for long stretches, particularly vs man defense.



I could only watch in bits and pieces last night - but I think Coach D has a struggle in that his best shooting lineups really do give up a lot of athleticism. Feels like we have to play either/or sometimes -- last night against Lafayette we could get away with having fewer of our best athletes/defenders on the court. It let us play with more shooting.

It's a tough puzzle.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-07-17 12:09 PM - Post#239487    

Steve, what are your thoughts on AJ and his left hand? I don't remember it being this egregious last year, but maybe it was? It's almost like he's completely afraid to use it. When you're going up with the right on a clear lefty layup, something isn't right.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-07-17 12:21 PM - Post#239490    

With this current team, we are going to have a tough time winning consistently unless we hit threes at a decent clip.

We have AJ and Max who can score from up close. But no-one else other than our good to decent 3 point shooters can score (not at an efficient rate, at any case). And part of the issue here, in addition, is that we don't get to the FT line that much--and when we do, it's no guarantee that this will result in points.

So besides Betley, SD will have to look for the hot hand from distance between Wood, Donahue and Jones.
PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-07-17 12:22 PM - Post#239492    

Last year was just as bad for AJ and his left hand. He used it less than a handful of times (pun intended). He just doesn't use his left hand to shoot. It's going to really limit his already high ceiling until he commits to using it regularly.

Lafayette figured it out 10 pts in and didn't go for any shot fakes and overplayed his right side. he didn't score again until late in the second half, when he....went left (bit with his right hand).
SteveDanley
Freshman
Posts 96
12-07-17 12:23 PM - Post#239493    

  • Quakers03 Said:
Steve, what are your thoughts on AJ and his left hand? I don't remember it being this egregious last year, but maybe it was? It's almost like he's completely afraid to use it. When you're going up with the right on a clear lefty layup, something isn't right.



It's weird, because I noticed the same thing last night. It was really obvious that he was coming back to finish with his right.

Last year, I thought he finished pretty well with his left, so I made a note of it.

I'd really have to sit down with more game tape to understand, but there's a difference between making a move designed to go left, and making a move designed to go right and being comfortable countering to the left.

I wonder if AJ is struggling because as scouting reports are getting better, they're making him go to more counters and he's most comfortable in the first set of moves (right or left).

Does seem like opposing Ds are throwing a lot at AJ -- including doubles and sitting on certain moves -- and there's a bit of an adjustment there.

PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-07-17 12:27 PM - Post#239494    

  • penn nation Said:
With this current team, we are going to have a tough time winning consistently unless we hit threes at a decent clip.





Not sure I agree with this. We are the best rebounding team in the IL and are middle of the pack in 3pt %. Last night we hit 21% of our 3's in the first half and led by 9. Our defense only gave up 24 pts in the first half. Having two bigs seems to be working in that it is limiting teams to fewer shots and giving us more shots (we lead the league in offensive rebounding).

Not hitting 3s at a decent clip is a limiting factor vs a disqualifying one and it just amplifies our need to do everything else well to win, doesn't mean we can't win conistently....which is exactly what Asia said a few posts ago. Certainly our success will be defined by the games where we don't shoot it well and still find a way to win (see Monmouth).

mrjames
Professor
Posts 5236
12-07-17 12:28 PM - Post#239496    

  • Quote:
Individual DRAT stats are poor indicators. I think even Mike James would admit that they reflect more on the team effort as opposed to the individual's effort.



Any defensive metrics that try to get to an individual's contribution are going to be challenged, primarily because defense is a team game, and much of how an individual performs well or poorly on defense is reflected in measurable outcomes that can often accrue to others.

Just to level set, here's what's in each defensive metric:

Individual DRAT - Based heavily on a team's overall defense, it assumes that players don't have a differential impact on forcing non-steal turnovers or forcing opponents to miss shots that aren't explicitly blocked (or otherwise put - that the team contributes equally to those outcomes). Where the individual DRATs will differ from the team DRAT is based on the number of DREBs, STLs and BLKs (stops) that a player produces. This obviously favors bigs as the best defenders, and there is a lot of debate about whether that's actually wrong (it might not be given that layups are the most efficient and defensively controllable shot).

I don't love individual DRAT. It has value in so much as stops are important and garnering stops is a defensive skill. Let's not understate that. The problem is, unlike assists in offensive rating which allow for the distribution of positive outcomes across the parties directly involved, if the on-ball defense is tight, forcing a player to throw up a shot that is easy to block or a pass that's easy to steal, that on-ball defender gets no credit for the outcome. In fact, the best on-ball defenders being assigned to the highest usage opposing players means that the best on-ball defenders explicitly WON'T be in line to get stops, even if they forced most of them.

Defensive Win Shares - Pretty much the same as Individual DRAT. Use Individual DRAT to figure out a player's marginal defensive value (in points) and then divide by the number of points that equal a win.

Lineup-Based DRAT - This is my preferred method, because it is based on actual defensive outcomes in points not in blocks, steals and rebounds. It also allows for understanding style (when this big is on the floor, the opponents shoot 20/50/30 layups/2PTJ/3PTJ, but when this big is off, opponents shoot 40/20/40). So it gives you a much better sense not only of true defensive performance, but how those outcomes are achieved (which can help for tracing back to what is random success/failure of an opponent and what is forced success/failure of an opponent).

Negative here is sample. Need a TON of sample to feel good about the all-else-equal nature of the analysis and the fact that randomness, which can linger for a while, has yielded to actual signal.

NONE OF THIS is a replacement for the great x/y coordinate-based and situational-analysis (PnR D, post D, etc.) work going on. That being said, with proper sample, the lineup-based DRAT does a nice 80/20 job of getting you to the right answer.
Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3218
12-07-17 12:29 PM - Post#239497    

I imagine that part of what we're seeing with AJ is the challenge of adjusting to a new position.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-07-17 12:38 PM - Post#239499    

But you prove my point. We can't depend on IL teams to shoot FTs as badly as Monmouth. That is what I meant when I said consistently. That is the other way we can win, of course--to play shut down defense. But our defense isn't fantastic and we are a somewhat foul prone team to boot.

  • PennFan10 Said:
  • penn nation Said:
With this current team, we are going to have a tough time winning consistently unless we hit threes at a decent clip.





Not sure I agree with this. We are the best rebounding team in the IL and are middle of the pack in 3pt %. Last night we hit 21% of our 3's in the first half and led by 9. Our defense only gave up 24 pts in the first half. Having two bigs seems to be working in that it is limiting teams to fewer shots and giving us more shots (we lead the league in offensive rebounding).

Not hitting 3s at a decent clip is a limiting factor vs a disqualifying one and it just amplifies our need to do everything else well to win, doesn't mean we can't win conistently....which is exactly what Asia said a few posts ago. Certainly our success will be defined by the games where we don't shoot it well and still find a way to win (see Monmouth).




mrjames
Professor
Posts 5236
12-07-17 12:44 PM - Post#239502    

I'd be a bit careful about the rebounding stats. Penn is quite good at rebounding, but it's important to note where the rebound opportunities are coming from, since the odds of grabbing a rebound differ by shot.

Penn has allowed a LOT of free throws at this point. Free throws are the easiest shot to grab a defensive rebound. Second easiest are misses off jumpers. Opponents are only rebounding 25% and 29% of 3PT and 2PTJs respectively, and they are shooting below average from both areas. When that regresses, that will mean fewer rebounding opportunities from those areas.

Penn is doing a nice job on rebounding at the rim (66.7% DREBs), so I think they'll remain an above average rebounding team on the defensive end all year. But there's some natural decline in that number that I'd expect to see. My wager is that Princeton's probably the best defensive rebounding team in league play, but I'd expect Harvard and Penn to be very good as well.
PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-07-17 12:45 PM - Post#239503    

But in the Monmouth game we played shut down defense at the FT line, no?
PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-07-17 12:51 PM - Post#239504    

  • mrjames Said:
I'd be a bit careful about the rebounding stats. Penn is quite good at rebounding, but it's important to note where the rebound opportunities are coming from, since the odds of grabbing a rebound differ by shot.

Penn has allowed a LOT of free throws at this point. Free throws are the easiest shot to grab a defensive rebound. Second easiest are misses off jumpers. Opponents are only rebounding 25% and 29% of 3PT and 2PTJs respectively, and they are shooting below average from both areas. When that regresses, that will mean fewer rebounding opportunities from those areas.

Penn is doing a nice job on rebounding at the rim (66.7% DREBs), so I think they'll remain an above average rebounding team on the defensive end all year. But there's some natural decline in that number that I'd expect to see. My wager is that Princeton's probably the best defensive rebounding team in league play, but I'd expect Harvard and Penn to be very good as well.



Good points and noted, however Penn is the still the best offensive rebounding team in the IL. There is no doubt they are fouling too much. Some of the OR is the number of 3's they take which creates longer and likely random rebounding stats, but I would think most of those are just effort and size. Max is the leading offensive rebounder on the team I believe.

Interesting to note that Yale leads the league in 3pt attempts (3rd in make %) and Penn is second (5th in make %). Harvard is 3rd in attempts and last in make %.


PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-07-17 01:02 PM - Post#239506    

Besides playing 2 bigs for a decent chunk of time, the other note on defense is the difference in how we play on ball screens. Last year we soft hedged everything and didn't switch and if it was a shooter, the on ball defender went over the top otherwise went under the screen and we allowed the ball handler to penetrate. This year we are hard hedging ball screens and switching almost everything. That's a big reason why Antonio gets a lot of minutes I believe. SD sees him (and is on record as saying so) as guarding 4 spots on the floor. Max can also guard multiple spots and that seems to have helped this team defensively.
PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-07-17 01:10 PM - Post#239507    

  • Silver Maple Said:
I imagine that part of what we're seeing with AJ is the challenge of adjusting to a new position.



I have seen this comment a few times and frankly I don't understand it. What's different about AJ's position on the Penn offense and how does it affect his ability to go left?

On offense I see AJ getting the ball in pretty much the same spots he did all of last year. The only difference is he has the ball on the perimeter in the corner/wing instead of at the top of the key.

The big difference for AJ is on defense where he has guarded some of the more athletic 4's we play and he has excelled at it. Playing defense against a predominantly face up player/mobile wing is much different than playing against a physical 5 who stays in the paint. AJ's on ball defense has been outstanding from my perspective. It's likely he has an adjustment as a help defender and that may well have affected his block rate (though he seems to be getting his groove now) and it may also affect his rebounding numbers but I don't see much difference on the offensive end at all. He has taken (and missed) more 3's this year but that's not a position thing, that's something SD wants him to do.

I really don't see the big adjustment on offense that many here have assumed.

mrjames
Professor
Posts 5236
12-07-17 01:24 PM - Post#239509    

I see Penn as 3rd in OREB% in the Ivy behind Yale and Brown (though all Ivy teams are in the bottom half nationally, so I don't expect that to be a differentiating stat). Penn may very well end up as the top Ivy team in OREB% at the end of the day, if it starts making more FTs. Penn's rebounding an absurd percent of 2PT Js (39%), but the layup rebounding rate is believeable at 40%. Ultimately, I expect Penn to be a good rebounding team on both ends of the floor.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 3759
12-07-17 01:38 PM - Post#239511    

  • PennFan10 Said:
  • Silver Maple Said:
I imagine that part of what we're seeing with AJ is the challenge of adjusting to a new position.



I have seen this comment a few times and frankly I don't understand it. What's different about AJ's position on the Penn offense and how does it affect his ability to go left?

On offense I see AJ getting the ball in pretty much the same spots he did all of last year. The only difference is he has the ball on the perimeter in the corner/wing instead of at the top of the key.

The big difference for AJ is on defense where he has guarded some of the more athletic 4's we play and he has excelled at it. Playing defense against a predominantly face up player/mobile wing is much different than playing against a physical 5 who stays in the paint. AJ's on ball defense has been outstanding from my perspective. It's likely he has an adjustment as a help defender and that may well have affected his block rate (though he seems to be getting his groove now) and it may also affect his rebounding numbers but I don't see much difference on the offensive end at all. He has taken (and missed) more 3's this year but that's not a position thing, that's something SD wants him to do.

I really don't see the big adjustment on offense that many here have assumed.




You answered your own question above.. guarded some of the most athletic 4s. Now they get to guard him and his quickness is not as big of an asset. I also wouldn't trivialize where he gets to start with the ball but perhaps that impact is minimal. But which move beats a center vs which move beats a 4 is quite different. He may need more strength moves and less moves based on quickness.


Once again, I just want to point out this spacing is UNHOLY AND AN ABOMINATION AGAINST MAN.

Mike can you please post the on off with max and AJ numbers to soothe me because I can't take Max and his 97 ORat, clogging up the offense, making our 2nd best player play out of position, turnovering self...

unless I'm sure that he's helping our defense as much as I hope he is.
Okoro Dude
Junior
Posts 287
12-07-17 01:54 PM - Post#239515    

With all deference to Steve, I vote we get the Archbishop Carroll coach down to practice to teach the big guys how to score and get fouled down low. Best I have seen at Penn in last 25 year in that regard.
TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-07-17 02:00 PM - Post#239516    

I'm not going to do it because I like the guys on this team and am fearful of upsetting some player's family relative, but it would be easy to write a strawman why some player other than Brodeur or Betley should have their minutes cut severely. Just like some argue that Sam Jones should be nailed to the bench.

But all the regulars serve a purpose and it's a good idea to blood Scott and Simmons now.

A good coach can figure out a role for a guy who has a really good outside shot that's difficult to defend. And I don't get arguments otherwise, despite the guy's shortcomings, because it's not like other guys on the team don't have shortcomings of their own.

Donahue didn't have much of a role for Foreman at the beginning of last year. He didn't have much of a role for Wood at the beginning of this year. So the argument that some guy doesn't deserve a role in the rotation because he doesn't have one now doesn't have merit.

Penndemonium
Masters Student
Posts 732
12-07-17 02:02 PM - Post#239517    

Everyone hit it on the head about switching roles and defenders. AJ's advantage last year was that he had space to move and has a very quick first move to the basket. He would make a lean at the end of his shot which stretched him further out - and made him even more unblockable by his defender.

Now there is an opposing center waiting to be a help defender. While AJ's defender would find it hard to block the lean, it actually makes it easier for the help defender b/c it is lower off the ground. Also, the help defender is less likely to foul because he can go after the block with less likelihood of hitting the body.

I'm not saying that this happens on every play, but AJ is forced to consider and compensate for it on every play when he takes things to the hoop. It would be much better spacing if Max was enough of an outside threat to draw his defender out and leave spacing for AJ to go to work. AJ is still very hard to defend one-on-one with space.

That's why I love it when we play out-of-conference and defenders give Max too much respect and don't give AJ enough.

.
  • PennFan10 Said:
  • Silver Maple Said:
I imagine that part of what we're seeing with AJ is the challenge of adjusting to a new position.



I have seen this comment a few times and frankly I don't understand it. What's different about AJ's position on the Penn offense and how does it affect his ability to go left?

On offense I see AJ getting the ball in pretty much the same spots he did all of last year. The only difference is he has the ball on the perimeter in the corner/wing instead of at the top of the key.

The big difference for AJ is on defense where he has guarded some of the more athletic 4's we play and he has excelled at it. Playing defense against a predominantly face up player/mobile wing is much different than playing against a physical 5 who stays in the paint. AJ's on ball defense has been outstanding from my perspective. It's likely he has an adjustment as a help defender and that may well have affected his block rate (though he seems to be getting his groove now) and it may also affect his rebounding numbers but I don't see much difference on the offensive end at all. He has taken (and missed) more 3's this year but that's not a position thing, that's something SD wants him to do.

I really don't see the big adjustment on offense that many here have assumed.




Penndemonium
Masters Student
Posts 732
12-07-17 02:06 PM - Post#239519    

One more comment - shooting with the right on a left hand layup can be effective on a given situation if you are beating your opponent with speed - you can get the ball under the arms of your opponent. That was a clear tactic of AJ many times last year - and it worked a lot.

That said, I agree with everyone's point that he may need to finish with the left more and take the foul.
T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
Masters Student
Posts 821
12-07-17 02:12 PM - Post#239521    

  • Okoro Dude Said:
With all deference to Steve, I vote we get the Archbishop Carroll coach down to practice to teach the big guys how to score and get fouled down low. Best I have seen at Penn in last 25 year in that regard.


Alas, I seem to recall Romanczuk was a pretty lousy free throw shooter, so he missed his share of 3 point plays.
Come to think of it, he'd fit right in.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-07-17 02:13 PM - Post#239522    

Agreed. However, on the one I am referencing, he spun beautifully and had no need to finish with his right as the left finish was wide open. It showed that he's just not comfortable finishing with that offhand.

mrjames
Professor
Posts 5236
12-07-17 02:31 PM - Post#239525    

Max on floor (399 poss):
99 ORAT
98 DRAT

Max off floor (335 poss):
100 ORAT
99 DRAT

AJ on floor (558 poss):
100 ORAT
97 DRAT

AJ off floor (176 poss):
96 ORAT
103 DRAT

AJ without Max on floor (284 poss):
106 ORAT
102 DRAT

AJ with Max on floor (274 poss):
95 ORAT
92 DRAT

The general assumptions are right. Opponents are struggling to get to the rim with Max and AJ in the game (31% of shots versus close to 40% when they're both on the floor). That's translating to a LOT more 2PT Js, which is perfect. The FT rate is through the floor (24%) when they're both on the floor. So, defensively, it's hard to argue that this isn't working.

Offensively, it's not great, but not as bad as many might suggest. Yes, the TO rate is slightly elevated with those two on the floor together. And they get a ton of shots blocked at the rim (probably because the opposing bigs can stay closer to the basket for help blocks). And they don't get to the free throw line that much. And they don't shoot threes well (25% when those two are together versus the 35ish range when not together).

But thus far, the tradeoff has been pretty equal from an efficiency differential standpoint. Better offense without Max, better defense with him, but about 3-4 points per 100 possessions ahead either way.
PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-07-17 02:31 PM - Post#239526    

  • mrjames Said:
I see Penn as 3rd in OREB% in the Ivy behind Yale and Brown (though all Ivy teams are in the bottom half nationally, so I don't expect that to be a differentiating stat). Penn may very well end up as the top Ivy team in OREB% at the end of the day, if it starts making more FTs. Penn's rebounding an absurd percent of 2PT Js (39%), but the layup rebounding rate is believeable at 40%. Ultimately, I expect Penn to be a good rebounding team on both ends of the floor.



From each team's website:

Brown 11.8 ORB per game
Penn 10.9 ORB per game
Yale 9.9 ORB per game

From ESPN:
Brown 11.8
Penn 11.3
Yale 9.9

I'm not sure why ESPN is different for Penn.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5236
12-07-17 02:43 PM - Post#239529    

Rates are better than per game numbers, which are influenced by the number of missed shots/pace.

Penn’s 3rd by OREB rate, but all the Ivies are below average, so no world-beaters on that end.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 11319
12-07-17 02:49 PM - Post#239532    

  • Quakers03 Said:
Agreed. However, on the one I am referencing, he spun beautifully and had no need to finish with his right as the left finish was wide open. It showed that he's just not comfortable finishing with that offhand.




Yes, this was shortly after the announcer said he hadn't yet seen AJ go to the left.
2genpenn
Pre-Frosh
Posts 2
12-07-17 03:40 PM - Post#239542    

Agree, Bruce; he will make AJ, Ryan and the Team BETTER. Give him a chance, SD!
Penndemonium
Masters Student
Posts 732
12-07-17 06:26 PM - Post#239569    

Yeah, Romanczuk really made the most of his abilities. He was a bit underrated as an athlete, however.
Stuart Suss
Masters Student
Posts 944
12-07-17 10:46 PM - Post#239597    

Addressing the team rebounding numbers:

When evaluating rebounding, I ask the following question. When you miss the first shot of a possession, what percentage of the time do you obtain a second chance to score by reason of an individual or team offensive rebound? The same question is asked on the defensive side.

As far as I know, nobody else calculates this number, but it can easily be determined by looking at the play by play sheet from any individual game. In my opinion the advantages of this calculation are:
1. It is a measurement of rebounding rate, not raw rebounding numbers.
2. It is a measurement of the rebounding rate on first field goal attempts of a possession and does not include rebounding of missed foul shots.

Using this measurement, Penn's division 1 opponents this year have obtained second chances on 21.5% of their misses of first field goal attempts of a possession.

This 21.5% is by far the best number I have ever measured for a season segment (defined as either the non-conference season or the 14 game conference season). The next best season segment I have ever recorded for limiting opponent second chances was 23.7% during the Ivy League season of 2003.

So, at least for now, with five non-conference games remaining. I have no hesitation in describing Penn's defensive rebounding rate as excellent.

On the offensive rebounding side, Penn's second chance percentage is 29.8%. The historic average for Penn teams is 31%-32%. Penn teams that won the league averaged 33.5% second chance opportunities during conference games. Conference opponents of Penn teams that won the league averaged 27.7%.

As a point of reference, for last year's Ivy League season, Penn's offensive second chance rate was 29.1% and Penn's opponents second chance rate was 29.8%.

Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3218
12-08-17 09:18 AM - Post#239606    

Thanks Stu. Sorry I didn't reference this metric in your haiku.

So, by this metric, defensive rebounding for the team this season is excellent, maybe even historically so. Offensive rebounding looks OK, but not terrific, and is a bit improved from last season. Correct?
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5236
12-08-17 10:06 AM - Post#239607    

One thing to keep in mind on the rebounding side of the house are season effects.

In the 2000s, teams were better at (prioritized more) offensive rebounding. Penn's 28.2% figure for offensive rebounding allowed (i.e. defensive rebounding) from 2003 was 29th nationally (average that year was 32.2%).

Last season, 28.2% would have landed just outside the Top 125 (average was 29.3%).

That change over time is primarily the product of changing shot types and relative de-prioritization of offensive rebounding to get back in transition.

Penn is, indeed, doing a very good job rebounding this year, though.
PennFan10
PhD Student
Posts 1765
12-08-17 11:09 AM - Post#239618    

I am not so sure Penn, or any Ivy at this point, cares much about where they sit nationally in any statistical category. I think, given we are a one bid league for now and the foreseeable future, where we sit within the league is much more important.

Penn is the top rebounding team in the league so far by most metrics, which is much better than last year where they ranked between 4th and 7th depending on what metric you looked at. Doesn't mean they are going to win anything, but it is clearly a big part of their team this year.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 7661
12-08-17 11:26 AM - Post#239622    

Which is interesting because one of our biggest fears was losing the rebounding that Matt Howard provided. Going the two bigs plus having some others like Darnell do a nice job has really helped.
yoyo
Junior
Posts 206
12-08-17 11:50 AM - Post#239627    

  • Quakers03 Said:
Which is interesting because one of our biggest fears was losing the rebounding that Matt Howard provided. Going the two bigs plus having some others like Darnell do a nice job has really helped.



Darnell really does show some ups when rebounding. I wish he could use that when finishing around the basket. That floater isn't cutting it.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5236
12-08-17 12:15 PM - Post#239628    

Yeah, the funny thing is that Penn's defensive rebounding isn't that much different with AJ and Max on the floor together (79.3%) versus when they aren't on the floor together (77.7%). Some of that difference is being dampened by the parade to the free throw line and easy-to-rebound missed free throws when they aren't on the floor together versus when they are.
TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-08-17 12:19 PM - Post#239629    

Defensive rebounding has been a team effort.

Darnell and Antonio get a lot of defensive rebounds by design. AJ, Max and Ryan (and any other big out there) are responsible for blocking out their men, Darnell and Antonio are responsible for scooping up loose rebounds. Everyone is doing an excellent job at their role.

Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3218
12-08-17 12:37 PM - Post#239632    

This may be a feature of Donahue's defensive approach. I've been given to understand that he particularly stresses forcing opposing players to take, what are for them, lower percentage shots. If that's the case, then it makes sense that you'd also be stressing rebounding.
TheLine
Postdoc
Posts 3622
12-08-17 12:45 PM - Post#239637    

It's all clearly by design.

T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
Masters Student
Posts 821
12-08-17 01:11 PM - Post#239645    

We also haven't played much zone this year either (haven't been forced to.) We played a air amount of 1-3-1 last year, which was effective on occasion, but made rebounding so much more difficult.
91Quake
Masters Student
Posts 626
12-08-17 02:16 PM - Post#239654    

That is interesting stuff. What other stats show season effects? I would assume to some degree all of them but what has changed the most as the emphasis has changed over time (or as far back as the numbers go)?
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5236
12-08-17 02:21 PM - Post#239657    

THREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEEEES (taken - not necessarily made)
SomeGuy
Postdoc
Posts 4584
12-09-17 06:39 PM - Post#239845    

I don't know if you caught SD's post game interview with the TV guys today, but he sort of addressed this. He didn't mention Silpe by name, but he talked about the importance of Sam Jones and Matt MacDonald, saying something like "we've got guys who have started 20 or 30 games who aren't even playing." He credited MacDonald with changing the culture of the program, and said that everyone's buy in resulted in the win today.

As for not transferring, I think Silpe will be in the mix for minutes next year. With Darnell graduating (and Caleb and Sam), there will be a lot of minutes to replace. Reasonable guess right now is Woods and Williams start if healthy, Donahue next, but it seems like Woods is the closest to a lock, and everything else could be open (with Goodman, Hamilton, and Scott in the mix, too). Lots of ways to go, but graduating the point guard changes the mix significantly and could open up time for Jake.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 3513
12-09-17 11:11 PM - Post#239869    

I thought Silpe was going to develop into a good PG, but his minutes disappeared. Good handle, good passer, lots of moxie. D was his weakness, I think.
Penndemonium
Masters Student
Posts 732
12-10-17 05:10 AM - Post#239879    

We all built Silpe up as the next Rosen in our minds, but. With more height and athleticism. He will have to forge his own path as the next Silpe. Maybe the next Chambers - most improved ball control PG who fights into the starting lineup and all-ivy picture.



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