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| Username | Post: VOTE: Predictions for Patriot League Results | |
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Bison137 Professor Posts 16147 
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12-26-17 11:32 AM - Post#241313
For background, here are Pomeroy projections for the league: 1 bucknell . 14.0 wins 2 army . . 11.7 wins 3 navy . . 10.5 4 colgate . 10.3 5 lehigh . 10.0 6 boston . 7.9 7 lafayette 6.6 8 loyola . 6.5 9 holy cross 6.3 10 american 6.2 wins And the official pre-season PL poll: Bucknell, 162 (18 first-place votes) Boston University, 141 (2) Navy, 120 Lehigh, 108 Colgate, 104 Loyola Maryland 78 Army West Point, 66 Holy Cross, 48 American, 39 Lafayette, 27 - - - - - A) How many games do you think the Bison will win in league play (out of 18)? B) Who do you expect to be the closest competitor? (NOTE: I intended to allow predictions for the top two, but messed up the poll set-up. Only allows one pick.) Results are displayed immediately after you vote.
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kevin96 Freshman Posts 41 |
12-26-17 11:50 AM - Post#241314
Two things about the above poll: 1. As was mentioned in the parentheses, only one choice is allowed for the top competitor. 2. For your vote to be counted, you have to submit a vote separately for each poll. |
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Bison137 Professor Posts 16147
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12-26-17 12:02 PM - Post#241315
Yes, that is correct. Unfortunately these polls are not that easy to manage and they don't allow you to edit them once they are posted.
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MrPhillie Postdoc Posts 2757 
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12-26-17 04:08 PM - Post#241323
I went for 15 wins and Navy second best team. With no injuries and if team was playing how many of us expected them to play based on last year’s performance and who was coming back, I would have chosen 17-18 wins. My guess of 15 wins is predicated on the idea that Kimbal and Avi both come back and play reasonably well. |
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bison63 Postdoc Posts 3857 |
12-26-17 06:24 PM - Post#241329
Think they will miss half PL season. |
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Bison137 Professor Posts 16147
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12-26-17 07:40 PM - Post#241333
Think they will miss half PL season. I am more optimistic about Kimbal than about Avi, even though ND said they were both 3-4 weeks away as of 12/22. If we assume Mackenzie's recovery is the norm of 6-8 weeks, that would theoretically have him back about January 18th, i.e. 7 weeks from December 1st surgery. That is about 4 weeks after ND's estimate. If he recovered in 6 weeks - which would be three weeks after ND's statement - then he could be back on January 11th. As for Avi, after looking at the brace immobilizing Avi's knee on Friday, I didn't get a good feeling about it being only a 3-4 week injury. Hope I'm too pessimistic.
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jkrun80 Postdoc Posts 3305 |
12-26-17 09:00 PM - Post#241341
The only PL game that scares me is the Wed game in Annapolis (Jan. 24). But we're good enough to handle Navy on the road. Fortunately, it's early in the semester. The February schedule is quite favorable. Only one weekday away game - a Monday at Lehigh. There are three pairs of short turnaround games. Jan 15/17 @Colgate, @Loyola; Feb 3/5 Lafayette, @Lehigh; Feb 12/14 Colgate, Loyola. The first will be the toughest. There's a week off between the latter two. |
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Bison137 Professor Posts 16147
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12-26-17 09:04 PM - Post#241342
Yes, playing Colgate and Loyola on the road with one day of rest in between will be a major challenge. Colgate is a very experienced team and is good enough to beat the Bison on the right night. Loyola seemingly is week this year, but they have been killed by injuries and may be mostly healthy by January 17th. Their injury list this season: - Lost All-PL PG Andre Walker for 3 games. - Lost starter Andrew Kostecka for a number of games. - Lost starter Chuck Champion for the first 5 games. Champion is averaging over 17 ppg since his return. - Lost Jame Fives, who had started in Champion's place. - Lost freshman Brent Holcomb, who had been averaging 18 mpg. - Didn't have freshman River Reed for the first 7 games. He is averaging over 20 mpg since his return. - Lost starter Chancellor Barnard for the year due to a torn pectoral muscle. Barnard isn't coming back this year - but if everyone else on the above list gets healthy, I think Loyola is a middle-of-the-pack team who could surprise some of the better teams.
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jkrun80 Postdoc Posts 3305 |
12-26-17 09:21 PM - Post#241343
Loyola beat Drexel and played Memphis close for 35 minutes in their last two games. They won't be the pushover their record might indicate. And we get them twice on one day rest. Hopefully, we can go deep in to the bench most games so our starters are playing 35 minutes a game. |
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Bison137 Professor Posts 16147
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12-26-17 09:29 PM - Post#241344
Loyola beat Drexel and played Memphis close for 35 minutes in their last two games. They won't be the pushover their record might indicate. Their better play corresponds to getting back Walker, Kostecka, and Champion - who are three of their four best players. The fourth is Cam Gregory, who leads the league in rebounds and is top ten in scoring. Also throw in a good freshman guard in Isiah Hart and they are definitely no pushover. I predicted 15 wins, thinking they are vulnerable in most of the road games. Long bus trips to Boston U and HC make those games tough. Back-to-back road games with virtually no rest with Colgate and Loyola. Always a tough game with Lehigh, who is very dangerous if they are shooting well. And close games are likely at Army and Navy. I would be much more confident with Kimbal and Avi back.
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jkrun80 Postdoc Posts 3305 |
12-26-17 09:57 PM - Post#241347
Long bus trips to Boston U and HC make those games tough. Back-to-back road games with virtually no rest with Colgate and Loyola. The Boston and HC games are at noon, so they will certainly travel the day before, which should help. The long bus ride to Hamilton on a Monday followed by the trip to Baltimore on Wednesday has me more concerned. Luckily classes start that Tuesday, so they should have the academic stress to deal with. |
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Bison137 Professor Posts 16147
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12-26-17 10:57 PM - Post#241348
Long bus trips to Boston U and HC make those games tough. Back-to-back road games with virtually no rest with Colgate and Loyola. The Boston and HC games are at noon, so they will certainly travel the day before, which should help. The long bus ride to Hamilton on a Monday followed by the trip to Baltimore on Wednesday has me more concerned. Luckily classes start that Tuesday, so they should have the academic stress to deal with. Normally they travel to Colgate the day before the game. I thought that was true of Loyola as well, although I am not positive about that one.
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Paulie777 PhD Student Posts 1767 |
12-26-17 11:22 PM - Post#241349
Current algorithmic probabilities: Winning Patriot League 94% Winning Patriot league tournament 81% Winning first round NCAA tournament (if in field of 64) 24% Winning second round NCAA tournament 8% Advancing to Elite 8 <1% Formula used Paulie777 |
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Bison89 Professor Posts 5370 
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12-27-17 12:28 PM - Post#241371
I went for 15 wins and Navy second best team. With no injuries and if team was playing how many of us expected them to play based on last year’s performance and who was coming back, I would have chosen 17-18 wins. My guess of 15 wins is predicated on the idea that Kimbal and Avi both come back and play reasonably well. Phillie, I agree with you on 15 wins. As for Navy, they might be the second best PL team, but they have a terrible strength of schedule (300+), and other than their opening game against a weak Pitt team, they have not beaten anybody with a winning record all season: TEAM RECORD RPI SCORE W/L Pittsburgh 8-5 (0-0) 156 71-62 W at Miami (FL) 11-1 (0-0) 30 55-89 L at Pennsylvania 7-4 (0-0) 116 45-66 L at Bryant 1-12 (0-0) 301 79-71 W St. Francis(NY) 1-9 (0-0) 336 85-76 W at FL Gulf Coast 6-7 (0-0) 210 54-70 L Denver 4-8 (0-0) 315 79-71 W Delaware 4-6 (0-0) 268 82-76 W Morgan St. 2-7 (0-0) 187 66-59 W at Coppin St. 0-13 (0-0) 308 70-53 W at Columbia 1-10 (0-0) 292 73-68 W Lipscomb 7-4 (0-0) 24 64-73 L
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jkrun80 Postdoc Posts 3305 |
12-27-17 01:54 PM - Post#241376
Army played an even weaker schedule than Navy. Don't be fooled by their winning record. The PL looks very weak this year. There might be one fluke loss, like the Loyola game last year. But there's no excuse for us to lose to anyone in the league. |
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BisonRoadWarrior Professor Posts 5203 
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12-27-17 01:57 PM - Post#241378
Army played an even weaker schedule than Navy. Don't be fooled by their winning record. The PL looks very weak this year. There might be one fluke loss, like the Loyola game last year. But there's no excuse for us to lose to anyone in the league. If KenPom crunches it all (factoring in their schedule) and says Army will finish second and has a 22 percent chance of winning the league, I'm going to be vary wary of them.
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bisonmania Masters Student Posts 920 |
12-27-17 03:57 PM - Post#241383
My inside source has told me Kimbal should be back by second week of January. |
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Bison89 Professor Posts 5370
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12-27-17 05:45 PM - Post#241385
My inside source has told me Kimbal should be back by second week of January. If Kimbal is healthy when he returns, it should make a big difference through the balance of PL play and the rest of the season. Bisonmania, thanks for the good news!
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Old Bison Masters Student Posts 619 |
12-28-17 01:19 PM - Post#241455
Bisonmania...thanks for sharing...maybe Avi shortly thereafter. |
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MrPhillie Postdoc Posts 2757
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12-28-17 01:25 PM - Post#241459
Thanks bisonmania. I would guess Kimbal will be taking it slow to begin and will take some time to get back to top form, but just having him out there and healthy this time will be a boost in team performance and confidence. |
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jkrun80 Postdoc Posts 3305 |
12-28-17 09:10 PM - Post#241489
Other opening night matchups: Lehigh @ Lafayette Army @ Boston Navy @ Loyola Colgate @ HC |
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Bison137 Professor Posts 16147
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12-28-17 09:13 PM - Post#241490
Four games that figure to be close - with the underdogs at home in all four.
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atlantabison PhD Student Posts 1835 |
12-30-17 01:12 PM - Post#241614
In fact all four were one possesion games late. Watch the Fran OHanlon intro video on the LC LU broadcast (about 4 minutes in), if you want to see Darth Vader without the mask!
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