is we beat the number 130 team... at home... by a few points. KenPom moved us up, what, three spots?

All this stuff about "the difference between this year and last year". It's enough already.

The difference between this year and last year is that Princeton is a demonstrably worse team.

Let's keep at it, see where we are the rest of the year. But right now Penn is actually performing worse than I predicted (120-130) by pomeroy.

Lighten up, Francis. We just beat Princeton.

issues like 0-6 followed by 6-2 are complex and there are many variables. One thing I have noted, though can't statistically corroborate, is the rotations.

Last year during 0-6 we played muliple starting lineups and several players would play a lot followed by not at all. SD was toying with his lineup and the guys didn't seem comfortable in their roles.

This year (and in the last half of last year) he has had the same starting lineup and has used the same bench guys the same way with few exceptions (e.g. we had a Dev sighting on Saturday and a Silpe sighting vs Toledo). The consistency gives players a level of confidence in what to expect and how to perform. Jarrod knows he is going in and can be aggressive for the minutes he plays. Sam Jones knows he is supposed to catch and shoot. Even Darnell and Max know the coach trusts them and will have them in there at the end so they seem to play more freely.

Sometimes players get tight when they don't know what to expect. Its not explicitly quantifiable yet it seems to be a factor.

Glad to see you jumping in to all of Stu's posts where he's breaking down the numbers.

Why are we only 149th then? If everything's improving 100+ spots, maybe not all of that matters. We improved 20 spots bud, that's all.

Bottom line - Penn is shooting better from outside, defending the outside shot better, and rebounding better. And the team continues to have a low TO rate. All good trends.

We still are winning games that we lost over the last 3 or 4 years. It was pretty apparent that Princeton would lose quite a bit this year (although many here still thought they were the team to beat).

We also generate fewer turnovers on defense and there are other countervailing trends that lead to the improvement being somewhat modest at 20-30 spots in statistical rankings. Our schedule is the largest reason for 10-5 vs. 6-9.

That said, the league did not perform well in the non-conference and lack of schedule strength could continue to be a big factor in our favor. We are currently forecast to be 20-10 (10-4) even with our only modest improvement in our statistical rankings. It is what it is unless one or more of the teams shows something they haven't yet.

If there was a year for a team outside the top 100 to win the tourney berth - this could be it. Particularly playing in home gym for Ivy Tourney. I think Jeff is largely right, but I am still happy for the win and excited by the opportunity to potentially win league which looked unlikely before season started.

Glad to see you jumping in to all of Stu's posts where he's breaking down the numbers.

Why are we only 149th then? If everything's improving 100+ spots, maybe not all of that matters. We improved 20 spots bud, that's all.

I have a feeling that if this team wins the conference then some will point to Penn being back and some will point to this being a relatively down year for the league. Both are kind of right, though I think the latter would severely understate the accomplishment.

Please, P38, show me all the years where a team ranked 149 wins the league (hint: never). Over the last 8 years, a team ranked 149 would have been either the 3rd or 4th best team in the league in every season. So, yes, if they win the league at their current statistical ranking of 149, it will almost certainly have been because the competition was down. There is nothing wrong with that, in fact I would love it. But, long term, you have to be a top 75 team to win titles in this league and they are nowhere near that today.

Antonio's numbers are significantly better than they were his first two years contrary to your prediction that that could not happen. Indeed, they are pretty similar to and promise a senior year very close to (gasp) Rob Belcore.

You simply don't understand court balance. No one is suggesting that either Max or Antonio are better players than Matt Howard. However, they fit the needs of this team better, since Betley is a much better scorer than Howard, Max plays better interior defense and is a bigger threat inside on offense than Howard and Antonio is a much better defensive player on the perimeter and a much better ballhandler than Howard. So while Howard overall was better, these guys make the team better. And you completely missed that in your preseason analysis and stubbornly persist in making that argument even when the true fans are feeling good about beating Princeton.

Your arrogant insistence on being recognized as a superior intellect far outweighs your status as a Quaker fan. On that, the satire got it just right. It was a bit unfair to suggest that that arrogance exceeds your love for your kids...but then again, it is satire.

I predicted 8-6 and 4th. One game different. I also predicted we'd be at a 130ish KenPom. I've been off so far.

• Jeff2sf Said:

What led you to the conclusion that Penn would be 8-6, KP 130ish? Tell me there's some statistical basis and it wasn't something you pulled from a body orifice. Because if that's the case then you're saying the season is a disappointment because the team hasn't reached a KP number you made up.

You come off as unimpressed that Penn beat the odds-on favorite to win the league - the one team that has a better KP than Penn's. I truly don't get that.

And you know what? It's OK to acknowledge that there are some guys on this team who are overachieving and putting us in this situation. Looking at you, Antonio Woods and Max Rothschild. They aren't the stars of the team but they play hard and play smart every single game. Bravo.

As a "stats guy" if you want to point something out then is it OK to educate without the condescension? Maybe all the banter on the site isn't to your liking but we're still able to discuss advanced metrics. That's advancement.

Jeff - I pay for Kenpom and track the advanced stats closely to the best of my ability (have enjoyed learning from stats folks that have shared their knowledge here), and I agree statistically overall we've only jumped 20-30 spots. I also agree overall the league is down in ratings (injuries being a big part) and that's why we are currently rated a higher in league than expected.

What I don't understand is why this post was necessary (and dude this is clearly a mistimed downer)?

Where are all the Penn fan posts saying we are now the best or overestimating our chances to win? Maybe one or two posts? I just don't see it. Seriously, I'd love to know what posts set you off to want to write this?

I see a lot of excited fans and more confident and hopeful than we've been in years. I mean, hell, we hadn't beaten Princeton in years... how #%$@ sad is that? Hell yes I was excited, but it was 1 game in 14 game season, and despite that Kenpom currently has us finishing with best Ivy regular season record, I frankly still think Princeton is the favorite so if anything I'm being even more conservative in my expectations than analytics would suggest. I've seen other Penn fans say the same about Princeton, so I just don't get why now?

Were we 170 or so at this time last year? Don't think so.

I have done nothing but meet you more than half way. You're not doing the same, Colin. So to be clear, you're saying that special means below average starter?

You keep saying that. I'm not declaring myself correct. So far, I'm not right. I. DID. NOT. FORECAST. WOODS. CORRECTLY.

you guys continually back into non-predictions by looking at non-comparable statistics (such as KenPom--140 last year does not equal 140 this year) or saying that Woods had a 10% chance of performing at this level, so if he does, the prediction was correct. I don't expect acknowledgment on this but that's my view.

• palestra38 Said:

Penn was ranked 145th at this point last season.

I mean expect people to acknowledge reality. I've definitely come with a good faith approach to this debate. Colin has not.

Yo Jeff. I disagree with Colin on everything under the sun politically, but if you're going to go after him, have the balls to state your opinion on that board where he posts his opinions rather than making snide comments about him here. Here, keep the snide comments to me.

Over the past month, Princeton's played like No. 70 nationally, which is about where I expected them to be. Remains to be seen whether that was a mere, random hot stretch or a new normal.

Princeton did play well on its West Coast trip, but again that ranking is inflated because of the USC game. Not that beating USC's subs still isn't something, but it sure as heck is not beating a Top 50 or Top 60 team.

A full-strength USC team is probably a Top 20 team (Sweet 16 last year with everyone back).

It was basically this page http://boards.basketball-u.com/showtopic.php?tid/2...

Felt too over the top to me.

This page towards the bottom was also pretty nausea inducing.

http://boards.basketball-u.com/showtopic.php?tid/2...

When you're fundamentally the same team, there's no need to talk about buy in and wanting it more and intangibles and all that. It by implication seems to indict players from last year. There is no way that swapping Matt Howard for Max and Antonio is a net positive. He's much better than both of those players on offense and defense. But they're getting this credit not extended to him because we're 20 spots higher in KenPom?