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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
02-01-18 04:06 PM - Post#245406
Dartmouth (+4.5) at Cornell Yale (+6) at Princeton Harvard (-1) at Columbia Brown (+8.5) at Pennsylvania Brown and Yale are pretty significant deviations from KenPom toward the road teams (2-3 pts). |
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TigerFan PhD Student Posts 1891 |
02-01-18 09:05 PM - Post#245448
Shadow -3.5 at Groundhog |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21212 |
02-01-18 09:19 PM - Post#245453
Shadow -3.5 at Groundhog The shadow knows. |
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whitakk Masters Student Posts 523 |
02-02-18 12:35 AM - Post#245475
Yale-Princeton already up to 7.5, which makes more sense. |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21212 |
02-02-18 09:12 AM - Post#245485
Nailed it.
Shadow -3.5 at Groundhog The shadow knows. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
02-02-18 11:00 AM - Post#245510
Don't know that I totally grasp all the lines today. Brown/Penn total of 145.5? Penn's *fast* games recently have all been due to ridiculous final two minute possession counts versus Cornell and Columbia due to free throws in those games. That's fine if you want to assume that again, but it doesn't mesh well with a 9.5-point spread. The two teams don't rebound the ball offensively all that much and Brown gets a ton of its points at the line which can add possessions, but that O/U and spread implies a 77-68 or 78-68 final, which seems like a LOT of points without end of game free throws. I think if you like the over, you have to like Brown covering. Yale's moved a bit to +7.5. A team playing as well as Princeton has (No. 50) since the GW game in December, should be an 18.5-point favorite over Yale at home. I don't know what to make of Harvard right now, but 138.5 seems like WAY too many points. Like most of that game, you're essentially proxying for taking the over on threes made. |
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Quakers03 Professor Posts 12533 |
02-02-18 02:09 PM - Post#245588
Are we not surprised that the Harvard line is as low as it is? |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3586 |
02-02-18 02:16 PM - Post#245590
I’ll be very surprised if Brown/Penn is in the 60’s for either team. I like the over a lot. I agree Brown covers. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
02-02-18 04:12 PM - Post#245615
I just wouldn’t touch that line. Bryce still isn’t starting, and it’s unclear how much he’ll play. The offense is awful without him unless Seth goes bonkers. Columbia could shoot their way out of the Harvard defensive sleeper hold. At the same time, if Harvard matches Columbia’s three point shooting and Bryce plays 30 mins or so, that line is probably a little light. Would touch any Harvard lines until they get set with their actual team. |
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Quakers03 Professor Posts 12533 |
02-02-18 05:26 PM - Post#245630
I’ll be very surprised if Brown/Penn is in the 60’s for either team. I like the over a lot. I agree Brown covers. Line is now up to 147 so I think others agree with you. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
02-02-18 06:04 PM - Post#245637
Yeah - I'm even seeing 148 now. To me, that doesn't seem like a conception of the game that favors Penn. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3586 |
02-02-18 10:57 PM - Post#245738
Played out as I thought it might, though I would not have been shock d if Penn lost. Brown has too much firepower but can’t play defense. In the end AJ with a huge defensive stop via block and Penn made the FT they needed to. Max playing big minutes with 4 fouls. |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8258 
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02-03-18 01:51 PM - Post#245821
Dogs went 4-4. I'm shocked! Bodes well for the Iggles. Penn -6, PU -11.5, Harvard -3.5 Columbia -7.5 tonight. I don't think any of them cover. Aside from Harvard at 139, all the Unders look good as well. |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8258
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02-04-18 12:44 PM - Post#246042
Dogs went 3-4, Penn hits FTs at the end and covers. Still shaking my head over the PU/Brown game. I bet PU has never ever gone Chessesteak and lost before. I wonder if this has ever happened in the entire league? |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21212 |
02-04-18 01:00 PM - Post#246048
Closest I found for Penn was a 105-97 home loss to Harvard in the '89-'90 season. |
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W. PhD Student Posts 1173 |
02-04-18 02:37 PM - Post#246060
Does the Abner's cheesesteak promotion apply if we score 100 and lose? Asking for a friend. |
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JDP Masters Student Posts 577 |
02-04-18 02:51 PM - Post#246063
I do not believe there are any qualifications ... more beer sales after scoring 100 and winning or losing? |
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1LotteryPick1969 Postdoc Posts 2275 
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02-04-18 03:08 PM - Post#246069
Does the Abner's cheesesteak promotion apply if we score 100 and lose? Asking for a friend. That's just cruel 
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penn nation Professor Posts 21212 |
02-04-18 03:58 PM - Post#246081
Found one! Columbia lost at Harvard, 102-100, on 2/19/72.
Closest I found for Penn was a 105-97 home loss to Harvard in the '89-'90 season. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
02-04-18 04:22 PM - Post#246083
Don't know if the results thus far prove much: Penn (5-0): all at home, all by single digits, no key injuries throughout. Outperformed abysmal season FT shooting to win last two games - trend or good luck? Princeton (3-2): playing the best of all Ivy squads over the past 60 days; about to host its 5th game out of 6 with a chance to avenge the loss to Penn; Harvard (5-1): looking good considering the Crimson have played 5 of 6 on the road, for the most part without Aiken and Baker; Aiken likely out for the foreseeable future, putting enormous pressure on Juzang and Haskett; Harvard fortunate that good start will allow for Bryce to rest and recover; Brown (3-3): really impressive offense; had they made free throws at Penn would have swept P's on the road; playing this Brown team is scary; can one win the league with weak defense? More likely the tournament. Columbia (3-3): already played at P's; looked good against Harvard but almost lost to Dartmouth at home; Yale (2-4): no Mason sighting yet; finished with the trip to the P's; Cornell (2-4): two man show, but those two (Morgan and Gettings) sure can score; Dartmouth (0-6): gutsy and resilient, even without Chris Knight this past weekend; oh where they could be with a full roster Coming Up: Penn at Princeton: not my rivalry, but doubt Penn will need to score 95 or Princeton 100+ to win this game. Back to Ivy ball P's at Harvard/Dartmouth: Harvard seems to have given itself the breathing room it needs regardless of what happens this coming weekend; would be huge if Crimson can split or sweep at home though. Can Dartmouth slow the P's march to the tournament? Unlikely. C's at Yale/Brown: Big games for the 4th spot. Does Mason return? Brown's momentum could lift it to 5-3 which would be huge. Columbia wins at Yale/Brown would make a statement. Buckle your seatbelts. |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21212 |
02-04-18 04:32 PM - Post#246087
In sum, just about everyone is still in it. And even for the cellar dwellers, 0-5 Dartmouth has played better than its record, and just remember that last year, Penn started out 0-6. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
02-04-18 04:53 PM - Post#246094
Absolutely, but IMHO Dartmouth just doesn't have the horses and Cornell really could have used a win against Harvard at home. Appears Cornell has no depth which makes it precarious. Once a starter fouled out Harvard locked up the win. If either Morgan or Gettings misses the game I'd take Dartmouth over Cornell. If Mason comes back healthy soon, Yale is a big factor. If not, Yale and Columbia will be chasing Brown for the 4th spot. Of course, Harvard is only another injury away from joining that group. Strange year. Everyone is vulnerable. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3586 |
02-04-18 05:41 PM - Post#246101
With 4 road wins Harvard is in the drivers seat for the 1 seed. That's really hard to do. Brown is the only other team with an Ivy road win. Penn/Columbia have held serve at home and Princeton has some ground to make up with a home loss. The winner of the IL regular season typically holds serve at home and wins 3-5 road games. Harvard at +4 is way ahead. |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21212 |
02-04-18 05:48 PM - Post#246103
H currently has a slight edge over Penn here, IMHO. The Ps have yet to play any road games at all, except against each other. So that stat needs to be placed in proper context. I suspect both Ps will have close to 4 road wins, if not more, by season's end. Plus, H has yet to play the Ps at all and it is not at full strength. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
02-04-18 09:33 PM - Post#246131
I don’t know... without Aiken at 100%, the PG play isn’t just too inconsistent to make them a favorite for anything. At the same time, no Ivy contender is perfect, but not having a PG that can get it across half court without turning it over might the biggest problem any of the contenders have. I’d put Penn and Princeton ahead of Harvard until it proves it can get Aiken back on the floor healthy. Happy to revisit that if it does, but that offense is a lot of Towns hero ball and has been buoyed by strong 3-point shooting recently. Don’t see that being consistent the rest of the way. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3586 |
02-05-18 12:27 AM - Post#246156
Strong 3pt shooting that began as soon as I posted about them being a bad 3pt team and has continued every game since. I am waiting until Saturday for my next statement about Harvard's 3pt shooting..... |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8258
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02-05-18 10:04 AM - Post#246175
We will know a lot more by this time next week. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
02-05-18 11:40 AM - Post#246197
Yeah - they're not *that* good from three such that they'll go 27-for-60 from three on the average weekend either. Somewhere in between. Harvard has some elite three-point shooters, and it would have been SHOCKING if they were sub-30 for the season. I suspect they'll still post some real stinkers from deep the rest of the way, but they should be capable of finishing the Ivy campaign in the 35-40% range. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3586 |
02-05-18 11:45 AM - Post#246200
I am just glad they didn't "mean revert" against my team, though that's still pending, thus my next comments on this will be that day in hopes of stemming the curse I started...... |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
02-05-18 11:49 AM - Post#246203
Ha - I think Penn will be just fine regardless. StevieD gets it and even if Harvard goes off for 40-50%, it'll be on sub-20 attempts, so the damage will be limited. I'd be stunned if he lets Harvard play the lottery a bunch of times from behind the arc. |
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Tiger69 Postdoc Posts 2816 |
02-05-18 01:25 PM - Post#246215
A lot depends on how the Tigers react to Brown loss. If they lose to h or the quackers, real title chances are probably lost. If they bounce back and sweep the next three, it's a new ball game. I don't want to speculate on the genius tourney. Fun for the winner, but no reason to boast. Unless it is the regular Champ. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3586 |
02-05-18 01:26 PM - Post#246217
If Penn gets the 1 seed, all moaning should be gone as the top seed hosts right? |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
02-05-18 02:32 PM - Post#246231
For this year, definitely. |
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