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internetter Postdoc Posts 3400 |
02-04-18 07:08 PM - Post#246111
http://ivyhoopsonline.com/2018/02/04/ivy-weeken d-r...
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Columbia 37P6 Postdoc Posts 2173 |
02-05-18 02:00 AM - Post#246163
A+ grade to Mike Tony for his fabulous write-up in Ivy Hoops Online. |
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cc66 Postdoc Posts 2203 |
02-05-18 02:17 PM - Post#246226
It is a fair review, with the one major proviso that all such reviews have, i.e., that no one knows to what extent the rest of the season reflects current vs. past performance. As just one example, Columbia now has four players who are averaging 10 or more ppg--Smith, Adlesh, Meisner, and Castlin. Of course, some of our defensive issues remain, in particular, the much referenced trade-off between Smith and Adlesh's offensive strengths and defensive liabilities as short guards. But other signs such as Tape now averaging 3 OR per IL contest, and perhaps more informally, the eyeball test suggesting a greater intensity, point to a better defense going forward. KP gives us just a mid-30ish% chance of defeating both Yale and Brown away this weekend. Earlier this season, Columbia without Castlin could not beat Yale and Brown. With him and the other improvements, we might be able to. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32803 |
02-05-18 02:22 PM - Post#246227
Are you sure that isn't mid 30s for EACH game? I would be surprised if Columbia has a mid 30s shot to sweep |
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Chet Forte Postdoc Posts 2967 |
 02-05-18 02:29 PM - Post#246229
I don’t think enough attention has been paid to the recent improvement in Meisner’s game. He had two excellent games this weekend on both ends of the court. He is much more aggressive in driving to the hoop, has a legitimate three point shot, has been rebounding at a high level, and is playing excellent defense.
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Columbia Alum Junior Posts 247 |
02-05-18 02:31 PM - Post#246230
~30 for each game = ~10% chance of sweep, i think our chances are little better than that, but will be a tough weekend and at least one win is important to getting top 4. |
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cc66 Postdoc Posts 2203 |
02-05-18 02:50 PM - Post#246234
Yes, of course, it's imprecisely worded--I meant a mid-30ish% for each game. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
02-05-18 02:56 PM - Post#246236
Conditional final odds for each rank based on this weekend's outcome: Short answer (and probably not surprising) is that a sweep would put you in the driver's seat for the 4th spot, a split would marginally increase your chances and getting swept would be a real problem. Columbia Sweeps (9.7% of sims): 1st = 1.8% 2nd = 9.2% 3rd = 20.8% 4th = 40.8% 5th = 19.7% 6th = 7.0% 7th = 0.6% Columbia Splits (42.9% of sims): 1st = 0.5% 2nd = 2.6% 3rd = 10.1% 4th = 28.3% 5th = 30.9% 6th = 22.6% 7th = 4.5% 8th = 0.5% Columbia Gets Swept (47.4% of sims): 2nd = 0.5% 3rd = 2.7% 4th = 11.5% 5th = 23.8% 6th = 42.3% 7th = 15.7% 8th = 3.3% |
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