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Username Post: Bracketology watch
Streamers
Professor
Posts 8141
Streamers
03-07-18 11:26 AM - Post#251188    

Lunardi has Harvard as a set (non play-in) 16 against Xavier

CBS (Palm) has moved them up to the 15 in the same bracket against Purdue
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-07-18 11:48 AM - Post#251196    

A play-in is no longer "in play".

Well, unless Yale or Cornell get the bid, and even then they still might escape with a regular 16.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-07-18 11:49 AM - Post#251197    

Neither Harvard nor Penn is likely to be a 16, and if they meet in the final, that's a lock.

Penn may or may not get that Dayton win in Quad2 (it's right on the line), but with two wins in the Ivy Tourney, its RPI will be in the 110 range and its SOR will be Top 100. There are already at least 6 teams with worse profiles regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

For Harvard, two more wins would push its RPI to right around 100 and a win over Penn would give it a Quad2 win. That would lock it into the 15 line. If the path is Cornell-Yale, that leaves the door open for the committee to do something silly, but likely Harvard would still escape ahead of LIU Brooklyn, Southland champ, SWAC champ, MEAC Champ, Radford and one of Lipscomb or Iona.

Yale and Cornell would both be off to Dayton for sure.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
03-07-18 11:53 AM - Post#251198    

Mr James,

What's the ceiling for Penn/Harvard in your view? 15 seed?
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-07-18 12:08 PM - Post#251203    

Reasonably, yes. If UMBC and Colgate pick off UVM and Bucknell, then that opens a window to a 14 for sure. I think we need to see three more upsets in the conf tourneys (some like UVM and Bucknell, just one team going down, other confs we'd need to see the top 2 or 3 seeds go down) before we could start dreaming on an Ivy 14.
Streamers
Professor
Posts 8141
Streamers
03-07-18 12:14 PM - Post#251205    

Mike (as usual on this subject) has it exactly right. Frankly, 16-15 means a lot less to me than 15-14 does. I'd almost rather have a play-in 16 than a set one as it provides a winnable game. This year more than most, IMHO, the gap between the projected 2's and 3's is pretty big.

I thought before Yale 2 Penn had a real shot at a 14 if they had won out. Now I think Penn or Harvard will need some significant S-curve good fortune to land a 14.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-07-18 12:28 PM - Post#251209    

Penn is not getting a 14, period, barring a string of some ridiculous results in other conference tourneys.

Harvard has a better shot at it, also still somewhat minimal. This is mainly because it would have 2 additional non-home victories (and potentially one additional 'road' victory [vs a quality opponent, to boot]) that would bump it up more would 2 additional Penn "home" victories.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
03-07-18 01:00 PM - Post#251213    

  • penn nation Said:
Penn is not getting a 14, period, barring a string of some ridiculous results in other conference tourneys.

Harvard has a better shot at it, also still somewhat minimal. This is mainly because it would have 2 additional non-home victories (and potentially one additional 'road' victory [vs a quality opponent, to boot]) that would bump it up more would 2 additional Penn "home" victories.



I'll take the other side of zero for a 14 seed. It's remote, but it' not negligible

Streamers
Professor
Posts 8141
Streamers
03-07-18 01:22 PM - Post#251215    

I agree Harvard has a better shot. Keep in mind the Committee can be a bit fickle at times, defying the numbers and moving teams around to create matchups they favor for reasons of their own.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-07-18 01:40 PM - Post#251219    

I'm also curious how/when team sheets are updated on that final day. If Harvard and Penn meet, would the team sheets even reflect who wins that game? Would the decision already be made on seeding? In that case, Harvard picking up a Quad2 win over Penn probably would be pretty irrelevant and thus Penn would probably have the better profile when the decision is made...
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-07-18 01:43 PM - Post#251223    

Wasn't the reason to have the Sunday men's game at noon based on accommodating the NCAA Selection Committee? If none of this matters, why not start the game at a more reasonable time?

  • mrjames Said:
I'm also curious how/when team sheets are updated on that final day. If Harvard and Penn meet, would the team sheets even reflect who wins that game? Would the decision already be made on seeding? In that case, Harvard picking up a Quad2 win over Penn probably would be pretty irrelevant and thus Penn would probably have the better profile when the decision is made...



PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
03-07-18 02:02 PM - Post#251240    

well, the NCAA will know there are only 2 options and they can select seeding on an either/or basis. Doesn't matter, as they will know before they release things, but they can clearly decide
If Harvard, then X, and if Penn then Y for seeding. Or they may say,"doesn't matter" Harvard/Penn is an XX seed". None of that is too complicated
Streamers
Professor
Posts 8141
Streamers
03-07-18 02:44 PM - Post#251256    

I know from prior years that they make changes to the top seeds based on same day results. How that relates to the bottom seeds, I've always wondered. I do strongly suspect PF10 is correct: they have scenarios mapped out in advance that adjust for certain combinations of results the final weekend. I actually think the bottom seeds may be impacted to some extent because they tend to 'arrange' certain matchups and the way they emphasize putting the top seeds close to home.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
03-07-18 02:50 PM - Post#251259    

Harvard played in New Mexico one year and then at UNC (vs UNC) and almost beat them. Who knows where the IL1 goes? Charlotte? Detroit? San Diego?
Streamers
Professor
Posts 8141
Streamers
03-07-18 02:58 PM - Post#251262    

Like I said, it will all depend on where they want the higher seed to play.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-08-18 10:06 PM - Post#251469    

Middle Tennessee St just got upset in the QF of its tourney.

That was rather unexpected and will help Harvard or Penn if they make it in.

  • penn nation Said:
Penn is not getting a 14, period, barring a string of some ridiculous results in other conference tourneys.

Harvard has a better shot at it, also still somewhat minimal. This is mainly because it would have 2 additional non-home victories (and potentially one additional 'road' victory [vs a quality opponent, to boot]) that would bump it up more would 2 additional Penn "home" victories.



mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-08-18 10:39 PM - Post#251471    

In that tourney, the top 3 seeds and probably top 4 would all need to lose to help, sadly. WKU and ODU will definitely be ahead. Marshall probably would be as well, IIRC.

Strong conference. MTSU deserves to be in based on Strength of Record metrics (true resume metric) and Quad1 (3-3). They’re a mid, though, so they’ll probably somehow be left out.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-08-18 10:52 PM - Post#251472    

ODU having some trouble so far with #10 seed La Tech.

And no-one is really there, either, deep in the heart of Texas.
Streamers
Professor
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Streamers
03-09-18 09:17 AM - Post#251492    

Anyone notice the cocktail party-sized gathering that was present for the American Conference to watch Temple-Tulane last night?
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32683
03-09-18 09:17 AM - Post#251493    

The AAC is a travesty of a mockery of a sham.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
03-09-18 10:31 AM - Post#251508    

As you know, big difference as to likelihood of pulling off an upset if a team is a #14 seed vs #15 or #16 seed. 16 seed basically zero %, 15 seed 6% and #14 seed 15%. Penn may be the only team that might receive a #14 seed but it will take some breaks. If Yale or Cornell wins, obviously #16 seed is awaiting them.

Will be a tough uphill battle for any IL team this year based on the seed.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-09-18 11:19 AM - Post#251522    

I don't think any Ivy has a shot at a 14, but the only path I could see would be Harvard getting there. Penn now has no Quad2 wins. Since the Ivy Tournament counts as home for Penn and Penn is projected to stay in the Top 135 with a loss in the final to Harvard, Harvard could still pick up a Quad2 win. That, combined with its much, much better SOS (which the committee likes to reward), competitiveness in all its other Quad2 games and a higher ceiling on RPI (could touch 100) should put it in (very slightly) better shape.

Now, even that, IMO, is not enough to be a serious contender for a 14.

Most likely scenario, given the Ivy Tourney odds, is for the league to get a 15 and for the rep to be Penn.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
03-09-18 12:11 PM - Post#251530    

Anyone notice how poor tickets sales are for the men's games on Saturday? Despite lower prices, looks like about 4000 tickets are still available. If one assumes that almost all of the 100 level went to allocations, bands, players, etc. it looks like less than half of true 'public' tix have sold.

Do we only need an area half the size of the Palestra?
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32683
03-09-18 12:19 PM - Post#251533    

The problem is that (1) the schools are on break and today's students would rather give up an arm than pass on Spring Break and (2) even if they were in session, the students don't care about Ivy basketball. Only the fanatics care, and there are virtually no fanatics from Cornell or Yale.

I will note, however, that the Yale-Harvard playoff at the Palestra was a near sellout (a lot of Penn fans, including myself, went to that game), so I just think a lot of people will walk up.

One of the things that I think hurts the attendance is that the big donors got all the best seats, not the season ticket holders. While I understand the policy reasons, you are saying something about the loyalty to season ticket holders when you put them up in the rafters.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
03-09-18 01:43 PM - Post#251550    

So much for an Ivy League event and gathering if students aren't interested in attending and some schools don't have a following.

The arguments for a tournament (at the Palestra) seem to be:
- largest arena (a geographic outlier that still has almost 50% of its tickets available less than 24hrs before tipoff)
- an opportunity for Ivy Leaguer's to come together (but not for some schools that don't care and, generally, not for students who are on break but don't spectate anyway. Also, there is no centralized location or social events so we all just have to make our own plans in the city)
- to avoid a top team missing out on the pay for play CIT or CBI

Awesome!


penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-09-18 01:48 PM - Post#251552    

  • palestra38 Said:
The problem is that (1) the schools are on break



So what does it tell you that usually at least one of the Penn-Princeton games is during break, and that the IL tourney at the Palestra is being held during another one?

palestra38
Professor
Posts 32683
03-09-18 02:14 PM - Post#251555    

Naw, it's all to sell the Ivy Brand on ESPN before what will appear to be a noisy and raucous crowd at the Cathedral of Basketball.

All the other stuff is lip service. This is a TV show.
Go Green
PhD Student
Posts 1124
03-09-18 03:02 PM - Post#251567    

  • bradley Said:
16 seed basically zero %



But its 100% if the #1 seed loses their two best players to ACL tears the week before. See Harvard v. Stanford (1998).


palestra38
Professor
Posts 32683
03-09-18 05:15 PM - Post#251594    

Isn't it possible that the Joe's win will move up in luster with the Hawks kicking George Mason butt today?
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-09-18 05:37 PM - Post#251600    

That won't help much, but beating URI will.

Obviously if they go all the way to the NCAAs that will help Harvard/Penn's profile, if either makes it to the tourney.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-09-18 06:04 PM - Post#251605    

Even winning out would leave St. Joe’s shy of the Top 100, so no Quad2 help there. Given that, probably not much help aside from the marginal bumps in the overarching metrics.

Would have been nice, because it’d add a Quad2 win for both Harvard and Penn.
sparman
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sparman
03-09-18 06:15 PM - Post#251609    

You would like to think that those who kept insisting a tournament would drum up intense fan interest would acknowledge, just maybe, they were wrong. But you know how far that goes in this era.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-09-18 06:34 PM - Post#251611    

If they somehow beat both URI and then potentially St. Bonnie's, that would be wins against two Top 50--heck, two Top 25--teams.

  • mrjames Said:
Even winning out would leave St. Joe’s shy of the Top 100, so no Quad2 help there. Given that, probably not much help aside from the marginal bumps in the overarching metrics.

Would have been nice, because it’d add a Quad2 win for both Harvard and Penn.



bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
03-09-18 08:05 PM - Post#251614    

I remember that one of the arguing points of the IvyMadness was that it would increase fan interest. As you point out, at least so far, that assertion has not occurred. The other arguing points, i.e. two bids, assist recruiting, keep all teams playing hard to the end of the season, etc. etc. are simply subjective or inaccurate although in fairness, we should know better after five years of IvyMadness.

So far, the only "real" tanggible benefit was that the Tigers got a #12 vs. #13 seed last year in all likelihood. This year, there is a possibility that IL Women will get 2 bids if the Tigers get knocked out although the Tigers will drop from a projected #12 seed if they lose in IvyMadness. It would be enlightening if a supporter of IvyMadness could provide a "real" tangible benefit so far besides the above rather than mumbo jumbo. I guess that one could argue that the enthusiasm of Quaker and Lion fans last year on this web site for the 4th seed could be an arguement although I am not sure if the school communities really cared last year. This year, nobody was getting too worked up about being a 4th seed especially Tiger fans.

Someone criticized Banghart for her comments about the Tournament. Perhaps, she simply has not been drinking the Koolaid.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-09-18 08:38 PM - Post#251617    

That’s great for St. Joe’s, but doesn’t really help its opponents. On their team sheets St. Joe’s remains a Quad3 win (unless you beat them at St. Joe’s, in which case this late run may end up making that a Quad2 win).

As for the tournament, my thoughts are pretty well-documented, but for those wanting to factor in the two-bid perspective, I’d save that judgment until we see this league that is currently last in the nation in experience with five sophomores that have received first-team honors plays through to the top of the cycle. If they can’t crescendo to a strong two-bid chance then, it’s hard to imagine a better reasonable opportunity.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
03-09-18 10:44 PM - Post#251623    

Just a guess but Harvard in the final. Not sure if it will be Penn or Yale. Good luck to all teams although one would hope that Harvard or Penn represents the IL at the Big Dance.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-10-18 08:37 PM - Post#251748    

Looks like we’re gonna come up one upset short of the 14 line as an expectation, but into the range now where I’d be a lot more stunned to see a 16 than the rep getting a 14. I don’t think the committee puts a ton of diligence into the 13-16 lines, so maybe that craziness will work out in our favor, but I feel like we’re a 15 with upside rather than a 15 with potential downside risk.
Chip Bayers
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Posts 6997
Chip Bayers
03-10-18 08:49 PM - Post#251750    

Yeah, it’s never a true curve except at the very top and very bottom, once they start moving teams around to avoid some of their early round no-no’s. And when they try to screw mid-majors out of revenue by seeding them as first round matchups to reduce their potential aggregate win totals.

mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-10-18 09:30 PM - Post#251763    

Also, not so sure there’s going to be a lot of difference between the 1/2/3 lines this year. The “easiest” team of the lot might be Xavier, which looks to get a 1-seed.
Big R&B Truth
Masters Student
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Big R&B Truth
03-10-18 10:12 PM - Post#251770    

The REAL tangible benefit is that the entire league now plays meaningful games in February as opposed to 3/4 of the league just playing out the last half of the season. Did you see the video of how excited the Cornell team was after they found out that they made the tournament when Yale beat Princeton last week? Sure Cornell had little chance of beating Harvard, but that video alone should end all arguments about the tournament. Perhaps you forget that Ivy sports are suppose to be about the student-athletes themselves and not the fans.


  • bradley Said:
I remember that one of the arguing points of the IvyMadness was that it would increase fan interest. As you point out, at least so far, that assertion has not occurred. The other arguing points, i.e. two bids, assist recruiting, keep all teams playing hard to the end of the season, etc. etc. are simply subjective or inaccurate although in fairness, we should know better after five years of IvyMadness.

So far, the only "real" tanggible benefit was that the Tigers got a #12 vs. #13 seed last year in all likelihood. This year, there is a possibility that IL Women will get 2 bids if the Tigers get knocked out although the Tigers will drop from a projected #12 seed if they lose in IvyMadness. It would be enlightening if a supporter of IvyMadness could provide a "real" tangible benefit so far besides the above rather than mumbo jumbo. I guess that one could argue that the enthusiasm of Quaker and Lion fans last year on this web site for the 4th seed could be an arguement although I am not sure if the school communities really cared last year. This year, nobody was getting too worked up about being a 4th seed especially Tiger fans.

Someone criticized Banghart for her comments about the Tournament. Perhaps, she simply has not been drinking the Koolaid.



SRP
Postdoc
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03-11-18 12:54 AM - Post#251818    

That's not much of an argument. You have to account for the reduced excitement of the players on the top teams.

Big R&B Truth
Masters Student
Posts 427
Big R&B Truth
03-11-18 06:46 AM - Post#251823    

  • SRP Said:
That's not much of an argument. You have to account for the reduced excitement of the players on the top teams.




Do these look like teams that have reduced excitement for winning the regular season? I don't think the facts back up this statement.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/9701 284371292...

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/9701 145049346...

Big R&B Truth
Masters Student
Posts 427
Big R&B Truth
03-11-18 07:05 AM - Post#251824    

If you haven't seen it, here is the video of Cornell making the tournament.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/9720 928292154...

Those of you who argue against the tournament seem like a bunch of grumpy old men who get upset because the culture is changing. I know this because I am a grumpy old man myself. It doesn't mean I can't recognize that sometimes change is for the better.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
03-11-18 08:41 AM - Post#251833    

Of course, Cornell was understandably joyous to be the 4th seed and participate in IvyMadness and good for them and Coach Earl. They finished the season at 12-16 with a #267 KenPom rating. They would have been a play in team at the Big Dance and make a very quick and hard exit from the tournament.

Another example would be to watch the faces of the 2015-16 Valpariso team that finished their conference 16-2 and 26-6 overall after not getting an invitation to play in the NCAA tournament. They lost to Green Bay in their conference tournament and were a NCAA bubble team but did not get in, probably because they were a mid-major team. They beat Florida State, St. Mary, BYU etc and lost in the NIT final.

Many conferences are now looking as to how to assist the #1 seed in the regular season. Sounds like Robin Harris and crew will consider it when they meet with the ADs. They should as IvyMadness continues on.

When the IL men truly become a two bid league like the IL women are becoming, there will be much less to no opposition to IvyMadness.

All of the discussion becomes somewhat moot for this year if the top regular season teams also win IvyMadness.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32683
03-11-18 08:50 AM - Post#251834    

It's already moot as there would have been a playoff between Penn and Harvard had there been no IvyMadness. Sure, it's at the Palestra, but Amaker is fine with that, and frankly, I don't think that this game will be decided on the basis of home court advantage.

In fact, the entire discussion (and you know I agreed with you that there should be no tournament unless the regular season winner would get an at large bid) is moot since the decision has been made and it is not going to change.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
03-11-18 09:45 AM - Post#251842    

Somewhat amazingly, Lunardi still has Harvard a #16 seed. Let's hope that he is dead wrong if Crimson win today.

Looking at KenPom, teams 1-10 are very strong. After 10th team, Michigan, there appears to be a drop off.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-11-18 10:09 AM - Post#251852    

Hopefully seeds would be scrubbed after the game, but Harvard would add a Quad2 win with a victory today, which should change the picture dramatically. The winner today should end up with an RPI rank that is in the 100-110 range, which would be crazy for a 16-seed in a year when there have been so many upsets. Smells like a solid 15 either way.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
03-11-18 10:51 AM - Post#251858    

In fairness, Amaker is of course going to say what he says regarding playing at the Palestra. If Penn wins by greater than 3 points, there will be little to no discussion regarding have home court. If it turns out to be 1-2 pt game, there will be conversation and it will put additional pressure on Robin and ADs' when they meet as to future location of IvyMadness.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 6062
03-11-18 10:56 AM - Post#251861    

There have been a lot of stories on this now, so I guess it’s okay to talk about, but my contention that the Ivy Tourney would be moved isn’t necessarily a men’s focused belief. I believe you’re much more likely to see a move based on the outcome of the women’s game, not the men’s.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-11-18 10:59 AM - Post#251864    

That makes sense in that attendance would be lower so venues too small for a Men’s tourney could work for the women
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
03-11-18 11:06 AM - Post#251866    

For this year, it would have been ideal for Harvard and Penn men's teams to simple square off at a neutral site based on their regular season records and let the chips fall. It is particularly unfortunate that the Tiger's womens' team is playing a road game but Banghart's team should get an invitation to the NCAA Tournament which minimizes the location of this year's tournament.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-11-18 02:02 PM - Post#251938    

Lunardi has them moved up to 15.

Of course, he'll now have to change the name from Harvard to Penn.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
03-11-18 02:23 PM - Post#251950    

Coach Donahue and crew deserve so much credit for the turnaround. Love Foreman and glad that he goes to Big Dance. Obvious advantage that they had home court today but it is what it is. Highly unlikely that it will or should be at the Palestra next year. Good news is that Penn plays good D which will certainly help playing a 2 seed - let’s hope.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
03-11-18 02:40 PM - Post#251959    

  • bradley Said:
In fairness, Amaker is of course going to say what he says regarding playing at the Palestra.



I've thought about this and I've concluded it's wrong. Coaches don't bite their tongues about league decisions. They just don't. That's why coaches get fined for referee discussions. That's why some coaches went on record saying they wanted a tournament when there was none.

I don't know why Tommy supports it at the Palestra. Maybe it's a compromise he made (give me a tournament and I'll support where you put it), maybe he's a romantic, maybe he doesn't feel that way today/now. But there's no way he "has" to feel that way. He could absolutely, respectfully, push back against the idea of a tournament held at a lower seed. I'd dare them to fire him.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
03-11-18 02:41 PM - Post#251960    

  • mrjames Said:
There have been a lot of stories on this now, so I guess it’s okay to talk about, but my contention that the Ivy Tourney would be moved isn’t necessarily a men’s focused belief. I believe you’re much more likely to see a move based on the outcome of the women’s game, not the men’s.



can you point us to one of these stories?

Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts 3615
Mike Porter
03-11-18 02:51 PM - Post#251966    

Princeton women’s coach has been repeatedly saying it shouldn’t be at the Palestra. Was in article from Harvard writer Tannenwald the other day so can check Twitter.
Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts 3615
Mike Porter
03-11-18 02:52 PM - Post#251967    

Haha, dad brain here. Don’t bother with Twitter - look a few posts down for link to the article on Women’s Tournament.
JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts 357
03-11-18 03:01 PM - Post#251971    

If you get the home court you might as well use it to your advantage. Nice job by the Quakers!
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-11-18 03:42 PM - Post#251993    

So Penn's KenPom ranking actually went DOWN (by 1) and Harvard's UP (by 3) as a result of the close score and Penn's "home" game.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-11-18 04:20 PM - Post#252006    

Done. Better yet, they are listed as Pennsylvania.

  • penn nation Said:
Lunardi has them moved up to 15.

Of course, he'll now have to change the name from Harvard to Penn.



SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4894
03-11-18 08:47 PM - Post#252151    

16th seed, baby.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32683
03-11-18 08:50 PM - Post#252154    

It's Princeton's fault---if our tournament were a week earlier, no way Penn is a 16 seed. But they're not going to re-seed everyone else last minute because of the Ivies. We need to move our season up---and your policy of exams in January is RIDICULOUS! Everyone hates it but it's a stupid "tradition." Change it already.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4894
03-11-18 08:58 PM - Post#252160    

What are you smoking? The schedule has nothing to do with it. Penn winning on its home floor and having weak non-conference schedule are the issue.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32683
03-11-18 09:17 PM - Post#252172    

Penn should have been a high 15, with a possible low 14. This is because Harvard had been seeded in. But I'm mad not about the matchup, but the site. Getting sent to Wichita is the fate of a 16.

And Princeton's schedule screws the league in all sorts of ways, and it makes no sense, other than "That's the Way We Do It."
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-11-18 09:54 PM - Post#252181    

There are 9 teams which made the field that are worse than Penn in the final KenPom rankings.
palestra38
Professor
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03-11-18 09:58 PM - Post#252182    

I don't think there is any serious question that our seed is a result of earning the bid on Sunday, after they had slotted the Ivy winner.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-11-18 10:01 PM - Post#252186    

  • palestra38 Said:
I don't think there is any serious question that our seed is a result of earning the bid on Sunday, after they had slotted the Ivy winner.



But explain the logic of how that would matter. After all, the lousy OOC SOS would still have been the same.

HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
03-11-18 10:09 PM - Post#252188    

So, win the regular season then. Penn has only itself (or Yale, or the refs) to blame for that. They're not going to hold things up for this league. We're an afterthought, especially this year.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32683
03-11-18 10:10 PM - Post#252189    

No reason why that alone should trump KenPom, RPI or record
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-11-18 10:15 PM - Post#252194    

  • HARVARDDADGRAD Said:
So, win the regular season then.



Then don't have the tourney.
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts 6391
03-11-18 10:18 PM - Post#252196    

I think you are right about how it should be. However, the OOC explanation looks to support the seeding almost exactly. So I suspect that is what happened (which means Harvard would have likely been a 15 if they had won). It makes more sense than the “slotting” argument— it’s not like it is hard to deal with two possible scenarios for the final.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4894
03-11-18 10:23 PM - Post#252198    

According to a committee guy a few days ago, they spend virtually all their time ranking the teams 1 to 68. Then they load the results into some software, which builds in various constraints, and crank out the pairings. The pairings take less than an hour or two for them to do and are barely discussed. So there is no pre-set conference seeding (teams, not conferences, are ranked).
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1871
03-11-18 10:31 PM - Post#252204    

Boo hoo! Is this a joke P38 or are you really that much of a whiner? Just be happy you are back in the NCAA tournament after so many years of mediocracy. And say a big thank you to the injury gods that took out 40% of both Yale and Harvard’s starting 5 (I’m counting Towns here) and to the rest of the league for allowing you to play on your home court.
Jay O
Masters Student
Posts 547
03-11-18 10:34 PM - Post#252206    

  • palestra38 Said:
It's Princeton's fault



Agreed. If Princeton had just been better, we'd have two more higher quality wins!

sparman
PhD Student
Posts 1339
sparman
03-11-18 10:36 PM - Post#252209    

I'm assuming he's just yanking chains. It's not a rational argument.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-11-18 10:37 PM - Post#252211    

Several players on Penn's bench have also been injured this year. Including a heralded freshman who, if healthy, is likely to receive major minutes in the future.

The bottom line is nobody picked Penn to win this league at the beginning of the season. This development has stunned Penn fans as much as anyone else.

Even as recently as last year, Penn always found ways to lose games. Finally, halfway through the Ivy season, it began to find its mojo. Now it has learned how to WIN--this has been absent in West Philly for a full decade.

In the future, it will hopefully learn how to win against higher quality opponents.
Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts 3615
Mike Porter
03-11-18 10:54 PM - Post#252219    

Clearly we got jobbed with a 16 seed and it isn’t just Penn fans saying it (see plenty of Twitter commentary and even Kansas folks).

That said, it certainly isn’t Princeton's fault. We could have easily rectified it by winning a few more games or played a tougher schedule. I do think we should the Ivy tournament timing had a negative effect this time and likely in the future.

That said, this clearly feels like the committee scratched off Harvard and wrote in Penn.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-11-18 11:10 PM - Post#252225    

Clearly we got jobbed. And not just because 9 qualifying teams finished below Penn in KenPom.

If you look at the next highest qualifying teams in KenPom (Marshall and College of Charleston), they got seeded all the way up to 13. Even though, by the way, their NCSOSs were among the worst in the entire country.
Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts 3615
Mike Porter
03-11-18 11:36 PM - Post#252236    

  • TigerFan Said:
Boo hoo! Is this a joke P38 or are you really that much of a whiner? Just be happy you are back in the NCAA tournament after so many years of mediocracy. And say a big thank you to the injury gods that took out 40% of both Yale and Harvard’s starting 5 (I’m counting Towns here) and to the rest of the league for allowing you to play on your home court.



Absolutely, a lot had to happen and injury issues for Yale and Harvard helped open the door for Penn to make the run. Oh but wait, what was Princeton’s excuse again?

Regardless, 16 seed or not, a lot to be proud of as a Penn fan right now!
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-11-18 11:39 PM - Post#252238    

  • Mike Porter Said:

Absolutely, a lot had to happen and injury issues for Yale and Harvard helped open the door for Penn to make the run. Oh but wait, what was Princeton’s excuse again?




That's OK, Princeton will have to settle for playing in the NIT/CIT/ Mercer County Rec League playoffs

jadwinjungle
Freshman
Posts 45
03-12-18 01:00 AM - Post#252247    

Penn wins the league championship and you guys still can't get Princeton off your mind…
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 3578
03-12-18 01:59 AM - Post#252250    

Why would we want to forget about Princeton? Part of the jo6 of this season is knowing how bad they sucked and remembering that. There will be no forgetting.
10Q
Professor
Posts 23199
03-12-18 06:07 AM - Post#252256    

I could not care less about the seeding.

Ivy champs!!!
palestra38
Professor
Posts 32683
03-12-18 07:51 AM - Post#252260    

As I said, I'm not complaining about playing Kansas as it is about as favorable a matchup as we would get if we had finished 15 (although I probably would rather face Cincy).

But seriously, there is a reason all the minor conferences finish their tournaments early. And we should find a way to do it, Princeton exams (which are the reason we play our season so late) or no exams.
mbaprof
Senior
Posts 342
03-12-18 07:54 AM - Post#252262    

There was a great visual yesterday of the Princeton's mens team filing into the Palestra as SPECTATORS for the women


HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
03-12-18 09:21 AM - Post#252280    

Agreed.

Next best alternative is playing tournament at top seed's gym or neutral site. Tournament final dropped Penn's KenPom rating.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
03-12-18 09:34 AM - Post#252284    

I'm just not convinced the Sunday at 2 p.m. thing was a cross off Harvard, insert Penn thing:

1. It's really not that hard to have two scenarios with the software available. Hell, it's fairly easy by hand.

2. While we are better than Harvard by KenPom, my understanding is KenPom isn't used at all and that what IS used would have Harvard basically at parity with us.

3. Harvard still would have had an edge on Lipscomb and Cal State Fullerton for a 15 seed yet those guys got it.

The committee sucks. The committee's against mid majors and the Ivies. That's an easy argument to make. But the cross off just seems very opposite of Occam.
Go Green
PhD Student
Posts 1124
03-12-18 09:44 AM - Post#252292    

  • Jeff2sf Said:

The committee sucks. The committee's against mid majors and the Ivies.



They have a bias against teams under FBI investigation as well.

https://www.theringer.com/2018/3/12/17108724/nc aa-...
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1842
03-12-18 09:52 AM - Post#252299    

  • mrjames Said:
Hopefully seeds would be scrubbed after the game, but Harvard would add a Quad2 win with a victory today, which should change the picture dramatically. The winner today should end up with an RPI rank that is in the 100-110 range, which would be crazy for a 16-seed in a year when there have been so many upsets. Smells like a solid 15 either way.




It has been a challenging year for IL men's basketball as reflected in the 16 seed for the co-champ and IvyMadness winner. There are many reasons for the poor performance of the league this year, including injuries, but there are legitimate questions. From the outset of non-conference play this year, IL teams had performance issues both from a record and visual perspective. Hopefully, significant improvement will be realized next year and beyond -- time will tell.

The track record of #16 seeds is well established but perhaps, Coach Donahue will pull off a history making event or at least keep the game competitive with tough defense.

The goal of the league should be to at least produce #12 and #13 seeds which they have done in prior years. Let's see how far away that we are from a 2 bid league. Not sure if the introduction of IvyMadness will accelerate the process.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
03-12-18 10:09 AM - Post#252309    

Mike, isn't there an inherent inconsistency or hurdle incurred due to the tournament? As I understood it, the narrative is that if the Ivy has a qualified at large team that doesn't win the tournament then we might get a second bid (at large). However, that presupposes a loss in the tournament, presumably to a lesser ranked squad. That loss can't possibly help in this anti mid-major selection process. Possibly worse, I would expect that a Sunday 'upset' would put the committee in the position of having to jettison a Power 5 team in favor of an Ivy squad that couldn't even beat a lower regarded Ivy squad in it's final game. Who really thinks the committee wants to do that, especially for an Ivy squad already guaranteed an NIT bid?

This pipe dream is internally inconsistent and, thus, our Folly.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
03-12-18 10:11 AM - Post#252310    

It's definitely not the direction I expected the league to go. To fall this far is a big argument against mine and others optimism.

But look at our All Ivy, not a senior on either team. The Ivy champ, Penn, was powered with its two best players being sophomores. This is usually a good sign (Cornell '08, Penn '05, Princeton '96, Penn '93) as to a champ improving its ranking/seeding. If Penn is beaten out, and there are certainly many reasons that could happen, one would think that's because someone overtook them as opposed to Penn falling back. I would expect that to mean at least two Top 100 teams, so seeding would be much improved.

We'll see.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
03-12-18 10:14 AM - Post#252312    

  • HARVARDDADGRAD Said:
Mike, isn't there an inherent inconsistency or hurdle incurred due to the tournament? As I understood it, the narrative is that if the Ivy has a qualified at large team that doesn't win the tournament then we might get a second bid (at large). However, that presupposes a loss in the tournament, presumably to a lesser ranked squad. That loss can't possibly help in this anti mid-major selection process. Possibly worse, I would expect that a Sunday 'upset' would put the committee in the position of having to jettison a Power 5 team in favor of an Ivy squad that couldn't even beat a lower regarded Ivy squad in it's final game. Who really thinks the committee wants to do that, especially for an Ivy squad already guaranteed an NIT bid?

This pipe dream is internally inconsistent and, thus, our Folly.



Do you not read anyone else? Even Mike? This is basically a prime reason he's flipped on the tournament's appropriateness.

My reason - IT'S FUN! - is still applicable.

palestra38
Professor
Posts 32683
03-12-18 10:17 AM - Post#252314    

Other than it was a great showcase for the League. I cannot deny that--having it on noon on Selection Sunday at the Palestra compared with the dreck that was the AAC tournament before a cavern of empty seats.

In terms of the Ivy ideal or promoting the selection of a 2nd team getting a bid, no.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
03-12-18 10:24 AM - Post#252317    

I absolutely see where Mike has changed his position. My point is that 2 bid concept is hurt by the tournament, an internal inconsistency that always puzzled me. Mike had been more optimistic about the committee's willingness to use better metrics. I believe he flipped when he gave up on the bona fides of the committee.

Sure, more games can be fun, and if they were held in my town, in my home, and with my fans and friends I'd think it was the funnest thing ever. It's just as 'fun' at the top seed's location, or at a neutral site, unless you are from Penn.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
03-12-18 10:26 AM - Post#252318    

right and that's mike's contention too, i just, nevermind.

I'm totally fine with moving the tournament to other places. There are pluses (fairness) and minuses (less people at neutral site, no 'magical Ivy gathering' at higher seed) to both situations. But watching on tv was fun this weekend as I learned due to some babysitting mishaps.
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2685
03-12-18 10:31 AM - Post#252319    

We're good.

I'm not a fan of the tournament, but if it's here to stay I just think we need some changes.
TheLine
Professor
Posts 5597
03-12-18 10:53 AM - Post#252324    

I've evolved.

"not fan of the tournament" = "my team is a favorite to win the league and I'm afraid of getting screwed" or "I'm old school and am against change"

I get the "our best team may get beat in the conference tournament" argument but also think the "our best team at the end of the season may not be the one who wins the 14 game tournament" the Mike has made in the past is also valid.

I had been a tournament skeptic up until last year. I now get it. It's fun. It makes the season more meaningful for all teams / players / coaches. And I refuse to be an old man throwing old school objections against change.

Go Green
PhD Student
Posts 1124
03-12-18 10:55 AM - Post#252325    

  • TheLine Said:
I've evolved.



I had been a tournament skeptic up until last year. I now get it. It's fun. It makes the season more meaningful for all teams / players / coaches. And I refuse to be an old man throwing old school objections against change.




Good for you! Hopefully others follow your example!



10Q
Professor
Posts 23199
03-12-18 11:05 AM - Post#252330    

I enjoyed yesterday's game immensely. It's one of my all time favorites. But I'm still anti-ILT. I just think the 14 game tournament makes us special and cool, and not in an elitist way.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4894
03-12-18 11:52 AM - Post#252356    

The argument from "modernity" is stupid. Conference tournaments are old-hat anyway. Mike has the radical idea:

"The time has come for mids to stop playing into this and chasing the brass ring of an extra bid. Enough with the conference tourneys. Send the regular season champ. Even if the NCAA adds more objectively accurate metrics to the team sheets, it will just ignore them when it wants."
10Q
Professor
Posts 23199
03-12-18 11:59 AM - Post#252359    

Follow the money
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
03-12-18 12:09 PM - Post#252368    

just read mike's tweet storm. pretty sure this is the feeling I had when Mom told me about Santa.
Streamers
Professor
Posts 8141
Streamers
03-12-18 12:19 PM - Post#252374    

I think it is kind of interesting that we are still having this heated debate about holding a tournament when several coaches within the mid-major (and even high major-see Calipari)conferences that get multiple bids are questioning their tournaments.
Quakers03
Professor
Posts 12480
03-12-18 12:42 PM - Post#252383    

  • mbaprof Said:
There was a great visual yesterday of the Princeton's mens team filing into the Palestra as SPECTATORS for the women



Oh would I have LOVED to see this. I wonder why they didn't come for the mens games...Good on them for supporting the women though.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-12-18 01:17 PM - Post#252403    

  • Jeff2sf Said:
just read mike's tweet storm. pretty sure this is the feeling I had when Mom told me about Santa.



Yeah, what Mike is saying is not surprising, though. The mid-majors get screwed for ways we've described even as recently as on this very thread, and for many years on this board.

Plus, even the few that do make it to the NCAA tourney itself usually get "set up" by the committee to have a very difficult road to make any meaningful progress.

The NCAA is like the Powerball folks--they sell the little folks the dream of making a fortune, even though the system is set up to be a regressive tax on the poor who almost always earn bupkus.

palestra38
Professor
Posts 32683
03-12-18 01:29 PM - Post#252413    

"Hey, Ya Never Know."
Albert08
Masters Student
Posts 570
03-12-18 01:45 PM - Post#252419    

It was probably a transportation issue, since unlike the Penn teams, they couldn't just walk from their dorm rooms. In order to get a free bus ride and entry to the Palestra they probably had to go when the women left. You seem to assume they could all pile into a minivan at 10 am, and stay all day to see both games.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-12-18 01:47 PM - Post#252422    

  • Albert08 Said:
It was probably a transportation issue, since unlike the Penn teams, they couldn't just walk from their dorm rooms. In order to get a free bus ride and entry to the Palestra they probably had to go when the women left. You seem to assume they could all pile into a minivan at 10 am, and stay all day to see both games.



Where were the other teams staying in Philadelphia? There are many transportation options available to get you close to the Palestra.

Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 4466
03-12-18 01:52 PM - Post#252427    

so PU transported their team back and forth? they do that last year? to save a few bucks? what a magical gathering of communities this thing has turned out to be. Synergy, Connections!
Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts 6997
Chip Bayers
03-12-18 02:17 PM - Post#252440    

Did the league pay for the buses?

penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-12-18 02:21 PM - Post#252443    

The cameras would not stop fawning over Mark Alarie and Craig Robinson in the stands, watching their daughters. I bet they could have sprung for SEPTA fare.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-12-18 11:41 PM - Post#252651    

Approaching midnight tonight, the latest spreads in the MW bracket:

1-16 (KU-UP) 14
2-15 (Duke-Iona) 19.5
3-14 (MSU-Bucknell) 14.5
4-13 (Auburn-Charleston) 10


Streamers
Professor
Posts 8141
Streamers
03-13-18 10:11 AM - Post#252681    

I actually think (hypothetically) that we would have been closer to +17-18 if we had drawn Duke. The matchups would have been more challenging (see: Bagley/Carter) and Duke has no real injury issues going in.

Bucknell really got a tough 3. I don't think they will cover that number.

Keep an eye on the money line. This is where the real gamblers like to play. Penn is still at +850 which is better than all the 15's and close to some of the 14's. These are all pretty volatile at this stage, but a closer look reveals that the penn/KU line is as much about KU as it is Penn. We see something similar with GA St. and Cincy Also at +850-900.

Meanwhile - Harvard opened at +11.5 vs Marquette FWIW.


palestra38
Professor
Posts 32683
03-13-18 10:16 AM - Post#252682    

A Vegas book strongly counseling a Penn bet

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/pennsylvania-ka nsa...
Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts 6997
Chip Bayers
03-13-18 10:24 AM - Post#252684    

  • Quote:
These are all pretty volatile at this stage, but a closer look reveals that the penn/KU line is as much about KU as it is Penn. We see something similar with GA St. and Cincy Also at +850-900.



In both cases, injury concerns with starters (Azubuike at KU, Evans at UC) are a major factor for the books.

Streamers
Professor
Posts 8141
Streamers
03-13-18 10:27 AM - Post#252686    

Agreed - although they are assuming Azubuike will play as of now. Any change there will bring the line down a bit.
Streamers
Professor
Posts 8141
Streamers
03-13-18 10:31 AM - Post#252688    

  • palestra38 Said:
A Vegas book strongly counseling a Penn bet

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/pennsylvania-ka nsa...



This data tends to move around quite a bit as you get closer to tipoff. I check it just before I put down the wagers.

I'd love to say these guys know what they are talking about but... Not so much
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-14-18 04:55 PM - Post#253085    

Updated spreads (Godzilla now listed as ?)

1-16 13.5
2-15 20
3-14 14.5
4-13 9.5

  • penn nation Said:
Approaching midnight tonight, the latest spreads in the MW bracket:

1-16 (KU-UP) 14
2-15 (Duke-Iona) 19.5
3-14 (MSU-Bucknell) 14.5
4-13 (Auburn-Charleston) 10





Quakers03
Professor
Posts 12480
03-14-18 05:03 PM - Post#253087    

I know it probably moved with the announcement of the big, but this really is a joke. 13.5 for a 16-1 game. I hope they are embarrassed.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 21085
03-14-18 05:16 PM - Post#253088    

Frankly if I were a bettor I would jump on Kansas.

I mean they're playing in Wichita, for crying out loud. And they are loaded, even if not as quite as much per usual Kansas standards.
FlaQuaker
Junior
Posts 223
04-05-18 01:42 PM - Post#254844    

Penn up to a 14 seed...for the 2019 tournamant:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/bracke...



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