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Username Post: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
Bruno
PhD Student
Posts 1111
10-21-18 09:22 PM - Post#263174    

Last time we finished higher than that was 2013 at 13th. imagine what next year could look like.

Team rankings - and spread - mirror the Ivy preseason poll pretty well.
LET'S go BRU-no (duh. nuh. nuh-nuh-nuh)

whitakk
Junior
Posts 285
10-21-18 09:44 PM - Post#263176    

  • Bruno Said:
Team rankings - and spread - mirror the Ivy preseason poll pretty well.




The Penn board might not see things the same way...
whitakk
Junior
Posts 285
10-21-18 09:44 PM - Post#263177    

  • Bruno Said:
Team rankings - and spread - mirror the Ivy preseason poll pretty well.




The Penn board might not see things the same way...
penn nation
Professor
Posts 13371
10-21-18 09:58 PM - Post#263179    

Of late, KenPom has tended to overrate Princeton and underrate Penn. So this is par for the course.
HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
11-22-18 09:36 AM - Post#266787    

No 2 bid Ivy. With the exception of Brown, Ivy teams have lost the last 10 games. No top 100 KP teams (Harvard #101)


mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
11-22-18 10:07 AM - Post#266788    

League has still been deceptively strong at the top. Harvard (66), Yale (65), Penn (62) all are playing well from a game score perspective - we haven't had Ivies throw up an average game score in the 60s in November since 11/2015.

I know expectations vary around here and that we haven't seen a dominant November team since 2012 and 2014 Harvard, which is feeling like a long, long time ago now.

But we've seen a bunch of highly competitive Tier I and II games from four different Ivy teams. I'm incredibly disappointed in what I've seen out of Princeton, but otherwise, there's a strong top three (with two of the three apparently deep enough to still be strong while overcoming key injuries), a few fun, frisky teams in Dartmouth, Brown and Cornell and a Columbia team that we knew would be pretty bad. All in all, I feel marginally positive about what I've seen thus far.
1LotteryPick1969
PhD Student
Posts 1664
1LotteryPick1969
11-23-18 06:15 AM - Post#266808    

  • mrjames Said:
I'm incredibly disappointed in what I've seen out of Princeton



Imagine how we Princeton fans feel..........
JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts 333
11-23-18 11:35 AM - Post#266814    

The Tigers lost one starter, the redoubtable Amir Bell, last year's DPOY. Admittedly, the starting line-up means little for a team that has played 12 and 13 players in its two Dl games this season. When Jaelin Llewellyn finally heals he will take over the Bell role at PG. As good as he may be he won't be much of an upgrade, especially on a team with limited options after Cannady and Stephens. At this point Princeton can't compete with Harvard, Yale and Penn. And, it troubles me to say, the other 4 teams beat the Tigers once last season. This should be a helluva battle for the fourth spot in the Ivy tourney.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1211
11-23-18 07:27 PM - Post#266836    

Still a long way to go regarding the Tigers and the rest of the league. I am not suggesting that Henderson's crew will get it together but one simply does not know until Jaelin is on the floor after a few games.

From a visual only perspective, the league appears to be playing somewhat better than the beginning of last year but every team already has at least two non-conference losses and nobody has beaten a quality team.

Hopefully, we are not heading down the road of another #16 seed team but it is way too early to know. I would not be surprised if IL women's basketball outperforms the men at the end of the day.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
11-24-18 01:00 AM - Post#266846    

Best wins in the league so far are Penn’s Win over Northern Iowa and @George Mason and Harvard over UMass. Yale v Memphis, Dartmouth v Davidson and Harvard v USF would have been the best wins that ended up as close losses
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
11-24-18 08:28 AM - Post#266849    

Neutral vs. Northern Iowa is a bit of a stretch relative to the other two and if you’re throwing that in, you have to add Cornell at NJIT and Yale over Cal in China.
Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts 3503
11-24-18 10:32 AM - Post#266858    

If Princeton continues to play as dreadfully as it has to this point, considering also how they did last season, I have to wonder if Henderson's job won't be in jeopardy. Princeton seems to have recruited pretty successfully over the past few years, and one could argue that they should be doing better.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
11-24-18 12:54 PM - Post#266864    

Can't imagine that Mitch is in any trouble (we are just a season-plus removed from a dominant Princeton team that came *this* close to knocking off Notre Dame in R64).

Also - much like Yale with 4-star Bruner - hard to credit Princeton for great recruiting and then knock the performance when the crown jewel of the recent classes hasn't seen the floor yet (not that I think Princeton will go from a 200ish team to Top 100 with just one player no matter how amazing - the rest of the team needs to step it up as well).

Maybe Princeton folks have a different take, but I think Mitch is one of the safest coaches in this league.
JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts 333
11-24-18 01:25 PM - Post#266865    

I agree that speculation on Henderson's job status is silly at this point. But the malaise that enveloped this team, starting with abysmal play against Lehigh LAST YEAR and continuing in the early part of this season, is troubling. I am starting to wonder if the last two recruiting classes have been overrated. None of those players have shown "go to guy" promise. Henderson's substitution "pattern" is more like a revolving door than part of a strategic scheme. The Tigers go in to this afternoon's contest at 0-6 Monmouth as 2 point favorites. My, how the mighty have fallen.
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
11-24-18 01:55 PM - Post#266868    

Definitely no time to pay a shiva call on Princeton's season or for Coach Henderson, a man's who's won 20 or more games in four different coaching seasons at his alma mater. Before putting hyperbole on paper take the time to learn that Princeton's had a Pete Carril disciple at the helm since 1996, the year Pepe retired. That's simply the way they do things down there, and testament to how much Coach Carril STILL matters to the school's athletic program; and that's certainly not about to change, on the basis of some ill-considered, subliminal suggestion.

palestra38
Professor
Posts 22417
11-24-18 04:20 PM - Post#266889    

Is this the way you talk in real life?
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
11-24-18 04:40 PM - Post#266892    

Well after all, I am a dinosaur.

HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
11-24-18 06:16 PM - Post#266909    

Coaches who preside over undefeated seasons don't get sacked just 2 years later. More likely, Princeton will benefit from the likely diminished interest in others who might have been trying to lure Coach Henderson away.
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
11-24-18 09:43 PM - Post#266931    

Good point, HDG, though not sure why you're directing it to me. I certainly wouldn't want to see Henderson gone, for all that's been stated above; and because he started on Pete Carril's final team in '96, that entered March Madness as a 13 seed and beat defending national champion, UCLA, in the first round.

HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
11-24-18 10:01 PM - Post#266934    

Meant to just add it to the dialogue. Not intended at you.

Princeton is a team with little depth. Things will improve once players are healthy. Lack of depth will likely limit upside though, especially on Ivy League Saturday's
whitakk
Junior
Posts 285
11-24-18 10:49 PM - Post#266936    

I've long thought Henderson was better than he got credit for, so to me it's crazy to talk about his job after what's really been five bad weeks (three last February and two so far this year), as bad as those five weeks have been.

It is really hard to be optimistic about the program's post-Class of 2019 future though, Jaelin or no Jaelin. Player development has been this program's calling card, but they need to develop some more talent fast.
SomeGuy
Postdoc
Posts 4935
11-24-18 11:16 PM - Post#266941    

I’m not sure if it’s that they lack depth, or if they are just a collection of unmatched parts. They seem like they should have depth. They’ve got plenty of bigs who were pretty highly touted, but they don’t seem to have enough guys who play both offense and defense. I understand that they were hurting at PG with a few injuries early on, but they still had two guys who were pretty highly touted PGs in Wright and Reynoso-Avila, plus Bagin. A bad mix (or a lack of depth) reflects on Henderson to a degree, but he’s figured this stuff out before.

For now, I think i’d play my best defenders with Cannady and Stephens and hope for the best.
HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
11-24-18 11:21 PM - Post#266943    

Has Princeton had an impact big since Kareem Maddox? Not a role player, but a difference maker.

To my eye, other than Aririzugoh and Stephens (who is listed as a guard), the current bigs may have been touted, but the just aren't that athletic.
SomeGuy
Postdoc
Posts 4935
11-25-18 09:56 AM - Post#266965    

Ian Hummer and Hans Brase are probably the best two way guys with size that they’ve had since Maddox.


HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
11-25-18 10:01 AM - Post#266966    

Clearly, both are excellent players.

I think of Hummer as a 6'7" forward, rather than a true big. Brase qualifies, although he liked to play offense away from the basket. Of course, that could be due in part to the Princeton offense preferring to keep the lane clear.
HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
11-27-18 12:36 AM - Post#267182    

By the way, Mike James was right. The first NCAA Rankings are out using their new cryptic and not disclosed NET system. Ohio State is #1! Pitt is #23 and San Francisco #25. One loss Kentucky is #61.

What an ignorant mess.
westcoast
Junior
Posts 244
12-02-18 01:54 AM - Post#267772    

After some solid wins today, the Ivy League has moved up to 13th in KenPom, passing Conference USA. Two teams are in the Top 100 (Yale - 88, Harvard - 93), and three more in the Top 200 (Penn - 140, Princeton - 161, Brown - 180).
HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
12-02-18 10:09 AM - Post#267783    

League performance was expected to be strong due to aging of key players into upperclassmen. Surprise is that performance comes with 5 former All Ivy players injured (Towns, Aiken, Betley, Cannady and now Lewis) and with Gettings transferring.
SomeGuy
Postdoc
Posts 4935
12-02-18 12:44 PM - Post#267804    

Junior class is crazy good. Even with all those guys hurt or gone (and all would be juniors except Cannady), almost half of the starting players in the league are juniors. Should make for an even better year next year.

On the other side, interesting that as of yesterday’s games, Bryce Washington is the only freshman in the league who started in his team’s last game.
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
12-02-18 03:07 PM - Post#267814    

Washington, D.C. frosh Ike Nweke's started every game in the frontcourt for Columbia, including this afternoon versus Delaware.

HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
12-02-18 07:05 PM - Post#267827    

Although not starting, Harvard has 3 freshmen in the current 10 man rotation.

Although likely not planned, it's a nice opportunity to see what they have.
SomeGuy
Postdoc
Posts 4935
12-02-18 10:56 PM - Post#267837    

Incorrect. Starters against St. Joe were Tape, Killingsworth, Stefanini, Bibbs, and Smith.

Nweke did start today, so now two Ivy freshmen have started their team’s last game. But as of yesterday, that was not the case.
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
12-03-18 11:58 AM - Post#267876    

SomeGuy:
Any true Penn fan knows there's little import to the recently played Stockton game; similarly, while Columbia did play St. Joseph's, they weren't playing the St. Joseph's Hawks from Philadelphia- the St. Joseph's you read about is a Division-3 institution in New York. So Columbia's played against five Division-1 opponents, to date, and freshman Ike Nweke from Washington, D.C. has started each of those games. That's all you need to know.

mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
12-05-18 09:58 AM - Post#268103    

Possibly more that I'm forgetting, but this is the 3rd time this decade that two Ivy schools have beaten the same Power 5 school in the same season and they're all ACC schools:

2010-11: Yale and Harvard over BC (arguably those two losses kept BC out of the tourney that year)
2011-12: Harvard and Princeton over FSU (FSU went on to be a 3-seed in the tourney)
2018-19: Yale and Penn over Miami (Miami should be in the at-large conversation still)

For all the worry early on, Ivies have cobbled together an okay set of resume wins thus far:

2 Tier I wins - Yale@Miami, Harvard@St.Mary's
2 Tier II wins - Penn vs Miami, Harvard@UMass

Now, there have been a ton of disappointments (Dartmouth@Davidson, Harvard@URI, Yale@Memphis, Harvard@USF) where a final possession that went differently could have dropped in some more Tier I or Tier II wins, but as a conference, we're at 11th at Bart's site, which is a record high for us.
Streamers
Postdoc
Posts 3877
Streamers
12-05-18 11:39 AM - Post#268115    

FYI Kenpom has Miami at 40 and Penn up to 123 today.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 3972
12-05-18 12:44 PM - Post#268119    

man, being top 100 is tougher than i thought*

pre-season adjustment caveat blah blah blah
QHoops
Senior
Posts 327
12-05-18 12:45 PM - Post#268120    


Mike -

Any way to tell if this is the first time a power conference team has dropped consecutive games to Ivy opponents?

In the 'modern era', I would think so, although if you wind back the clock to the 'Eastern Basketball' days, it's not hard to imagine Columbia and Penn or Princeton beating a St. John's or a Rutgers back to back
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
12-05-18 12:53 PM - Post#268124    

Great Q - I don't have the opponents' schedules loaded in, so I don't know, but maybe one of our resident historians on the boards happens to know?

As for Penn, at Bart's site, which gave Penn a higher preseason rank than KP and has a quicker fade on the anchor those preseason ranks provide, the Quakers are now in the Top 100. That's why we're 11th at Bart vs. 13th at KP.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 3972
12-05-18 12:55 PM - Post#268125    

i can't change from kenpom.com. it's so easy to type in. Bookmark? nah.

i'm just too old, the quakers are 123 whether I like it or not.
Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts 5565
Chip Bayers
12-06-18 12:22 AM - Post#268183    

Bad night for the league tonight, Yale excepted.

HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
12-06-18 11:25 PM - Post#268237    

OK, here we go: Yale at Duke, 5:30 Saturday

Least expensive ticket on Stubhub is $184 (+ fees)

PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
12-06-18 11:37 PM - Post#268238    

you goin?
penn nation
Professor
Posts 13371
12-06-18 11:37 PM - Post#268239    

Clearly clamoring to see good competition.

The Ivy League is 2-1 against the ACC heading into this one.


HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
12-06-18 11:52 PM - Post#268241    

Saving my ff miles for Harvard at UNC in January.

Who guards Zion? Would have liked to see Zion vs Zena! You reading this Z?
SomeGuy
Postdoc
Posts 4935
12-08-18 11:55 PM - Post#268372    

With Dartmouth’s win tonight, no Ivy team is in the bottom 100 in Pomeroy. Rising tide.
HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
12-14-18 11:26 AM - Post#269106    

As most Ivy schools approach exams, some Ivy basketball ratings (KP, Torvik) seem to bunch HYP(Penn) in a battle for the top with the bunching being within the advantage given to HCA. Should make for some very exciting contests.

After a gap in the rankings, Princeton and Brown are virtually neck and neck for the 4th spot, with Dartmouth lurking behind, and then a further gap before Columbia and Cornell.

Now that Princeton appears to have Llewellyn, I assume that Princeton will begin to rise. As for Harvard, the same would be true depending on if and when Aiken and Towns return. On the other hand, although Columbia played well in its first game without Mike Smith, it can be expected that the Lions will suffer. I think that makes 4 or 5 anticipated contributors that won't be there for Columbia.

Overall, 2019 is shaping up to be very competitive, with a host of unknowns. One thing we do know is that Yale gets to host the Tournament. As Yale is likely in the running for the regular season title, the impact of holding the Tournament at a participating school could mean that HCA could influence - or dictate - the league's NCAA representative. Wonder how the powers that be will see that situation, or if they will care.
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts 3972
12-14-18 09:30 PM - Post#269124    

they absolutely don't care. they didn't with penn going into the 2nd year (maybe you could argue it was reasonable to think penn wouldn't make tourney 1st year, but last year had to know it was likely and more likely than not wouldn't be 1 seed.)
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
12-15-18 01:59 PM - Post#269158    

Dusted off some code to pull out the best wins from this year - SITE-ADJUSTED. Here they are (Game, Venue, Game Score). (NOTE: Game Score is adjusted regardless of margin to represent what winning by 1 would equal, so this is just the quality of win regardless of margin):

1. Harvard-St. Mary's, A, 92
2. Yale-Miami, N, 89
3. Penn-Miami, H, 81
4. Harvard-UMass, A, 79
5. Penn-Villanova, H, 79
6. Penn-George Mason, A, 60
7. Cornell-NJIT, A, 59
8. Penn-UNI, N, 57
9. Harvard-Holy Cross, 49
10. Penn-La Salle, A, 48

PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
12-15-18 02:38 PM - Post#269165    

So of the top 10 best wins Penn has 5, Harvard 3, Yale and Cornell 1 each.


mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
12-15-18 03:47 PM - Post#269167    

Assuming the NET converges to the popular ranking systems, the key numbers to keep an eye on are 83 and 68. That's a decent rule of thumb cutoff for what will be Tier I and Tier II wins.
whitakk
Junior
Posts 285
12-15-18 05:58 PM - Post#269174    

Does Yale get semi-road credit here or is it treated as pure neutral?
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
12-15-18 06:14 PM - Post#269176    

KenPom says "semi road"
penn nation
Professor
Posts 13371
12-15-18 06:31 PM - Post#269177    

Big steal and conversion by Temple in OT vs Davidson. That will make Temple's profile even stronger when Penn plays them.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 13371
12-15-18 07:47 PM - Post#269182    

Just finished watching the first half of Iowa-UNI. One of the worst offensive performances by a team I've seen in some time.

Have to wonder if that Penn win over UNI stays in the Top Ten by season's end.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
12-15-18 10:04 PM - Post#269193    

Bart had it as neutral, so that’s what it read out as. Other sites do have it as semi-away, so it would be slightly higher as a win if it were counted as semi-away.

Also, Bart and KP disagree on some teams, so if I had run this on KP’s numbers, for instance, Miami and Villanova would be in completely different places (Villanova much higher than Miami - potentially better than semi-away over Miami and close to road over St. Mary’s).
weinhauers_ghost
PhD Student
Posts 1447
12-15-18 10:37 PM - Post#269196    

I was wondering why Penn's win over Miami was rated higher than the win over Villanova.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 13371
12-15-18 10:42 PM - Post#269197    

Especially seeing as 3 of the 4 teams Nova has lost to remain undefeated (with the 4th, Penn, having lost only twice).

My beef--not new--is that Penn-Nova analytically should only be considered a semi-home game for Penn (as opposed to straight home), if only because Big Five opponents are used to the Palestra floor and that it's usually far from an overwhelming fan advantage for Penn.
palestra38
Professor
Posts 22417
12-16-18 06:31 AM - Post#269203    

That's not correct---there is a huge difference between playing that game at the Palestra or at the Pavillion. It's a home game.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 13371
12-16-18 10:23 AM - Post#269212    

Of course there is. But that’s not the point of comparison. The question is rather How Is This ‘Home’ Gane Different From All Other ‘Home’ Games?
palestra38
Professor
Posts 22417
12-16-18 12:38 PM - Post#269220    

It was clearly a Penn home crowd---and frankly, that was a bit unexpected. We finally brought out the students and you know, I think a lot of them will be back! Too bad both Princeton games are on break. That Princeton change of schedule (still 2 years away) cannot happen soon enough.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
12-23-18 03:28 PM - Post#269981    

Here's one way to look at resumes thus far. What you'll see below is every game that the Ivies have played this season, organized by team, including location, whether the Ivy won or lost and the Game Score for that game if the Ivy team had won by 1. This gives you a sense of the quality of the game (regardless of margin) and thus the resumes of Ivy teams.

The full table is below. Some summary stats could be interesting as well - these include the Average GS played, Average GS of Wins, Average GS of Losses, Wins above 68, Wins above 83:

Avg GSAdj Avg GSAdj of Wins Avg GSAdj of Losses Wins > 68 Wins > 83
Brown 44 28 71 0 0
Columbia 44 22 50 0 0
Cornell 54 35 65 0 0
Dartmouth 43 26 59 0 0
Harvard 65 58 71 2 1
Penn 52 46 83 2 0
Princeton 48 28 68 0 0
Yale 53 39 87 1 1

The key takeaways here are that there are sort of four groups of schedule toughness: Harvard; Cornell, Yale and Penn; Princeton; Columbia, Brown, Dartmouth. Harvard's schedule has been historically tough (until yesterday's game, the worst opponent it had played was roughly equivalent to playing a 180s team at a neutral site).

It should follow that Harvard's average game score of wins (58) is far and away better than any other team (Penn's is very strong at 46). From a loss perspective, Columbia's average GS of losses is easily the worst in the league (50), while Yale and Penn have done the best job of losing to nothing but the best (Penn's GS losses were 88 and 77, while Yale's were 99, 85 and 78). Why this is important is that in a "three-team" race for the Ivy title, Harvard is the team of the three that has demonstrated the most ability to drop the types of normal course games that it will see during the league campaign.

Full list of games and game scores below:

Butler Brown A L 94
Rhode Island Brown A L 81
NJIT Brown A L 63
Marist Brown A W 62
LIU Brooklyn Brown A L 47
Stony Brook Brown H W 38
Navy Brown A W 30
UMass Lowell Brown H W 23
Army Brown H W 18
Sacred Heart Brown H W 17
Bryant Brown H W 7
Rutgers Columbia A L 87
Boston College Columbia A L 80
Fordham Columbia A L 63
Marist Columbia A L 61
Colgate Columbia H L 44
FIU Columbia N L 39
Iona Columbia N W 37
Delaware Columbia H L 23
Bryant Columbia H W 7
Youngstown St. Columbia N L 2
Syracuse Cornell A L 90
Connecticut Cornell A L 8 6
Toledo Cornell A L 86
SMU Cornell A L 84
NJIT Cornell A W 62
Colgate Cornell H L 43
Niagara Cornell A L 41
Lafayette Cornell A W 31
Binghamton Cornell A W 28
Delaware Cornell H L 24
Longwood Cornell H W 19
San Francisco Dartmouth A L 9 4
Buffalo Dartmouth A L 93
Davidson Dartmouth A L 78
Marist Dartmouth N L 48
Loyola MD Dartmouth A W 39
Albany Dartmouth A W 38
Boston University Dartmouth H W 31
Albany Dartmouth N W 24
Quinnipiac Dartmouth H L 22
Bryant Dartmouth A L 18
Sacred Heart Dartmouth H W 17
Maine Dartmouth H W 8
San Francisco Harvard A L 95
Saint Mary's Harvard A W 91
Rhode Island Harvard A L 80
Vermont Harvard A L 79
Massachusetts Harvard A W 76
Northeastern Harvard H L 54
Holy Cross Harvard H W 46
Siena Harvard A L 45
George Washington Harvard H W 18
Kansas St. Penn N L 88
Miami FL Penn H W 79
Villanova Penn H W 79
Oregon St. Penn N L 77
George Mason Penn A W 62
New Mexico Penn A W 59
La Salle Penn A W 47
Northern Iowa Penn N W 44
Rice Penn H W 16
Lafayette Penn H W 13
Delaware St. Penn A W 11
Duke Princeton A L 99
St. John's Princeton A L 89
Lehigh Princeton A L 73
Saint Joseph's Princeton H L 55
Iona Princeton N W 36
Monmouth Princeton A W 33
Lafayette Princeton A W 3 0
Fairleigh Dickinson Princeton H L 2 6
Maine Princeton A W 22
George Washington Princeton H W 18
Duke Yale A L 99
Miami FL Yale N W 87
Memphis Yale A L 85
Vermont Yale A L 78
California Yale N W 47
Lehigh Yale H W 46
Monmouth Yale A W 33
Iona Yale H W 25
Bryant Yale A W 17
Albany Yale H W 16



bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1211
12-23-18 05:16 PM - Post#269987    

Excluding the statistics and watching a fair number of non-conference games, my gut reaction is if Aiken and Towns return, Harvard would have the greatest chance to win the regular season crown. If only one of them returns, it may simply be a "crap shoot" among the Big 3. My non-statistical gut gives Yale the slight edge although Penn is right there with the Bulldogs. If Aiken or Towns does not return, Crimson are trailing behind Yale and Penn but as we have learned, injuries are always a wild card for every team.

As to the 4th spot, Brown seems to have the best opportunity. It may well be an advantage to finish #1 in the regular season this year as IvyMadness will favor #1 seed especially if it is the Bulldogs.

Donahue's coaching against Jones' coaching would be one helluva of a battle.

Time will tell.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
12-27-18 11:34 AM - Post#270185    

A lot of how the league stacks up depends on what you think matters.

By true game score (that includes margin), the top three are really bunched:

Penn 70
Yale 66
Harv 66

Brown stands alone in the 4th spot (54), Dart stands alone in the fifth spot (46) and then the bottom three are relatively bunched:

Prin 38
Colu 36
Corn 34

I'd argue that game score is the best descriptor of how competitive a team has been (and thus a pretty good predictor moving forward).

That being said, you play to win the games, so from a resume view, there's a pretty different story:

You can judge the quality of a win by taking the Adj GS (that Game Score that is completely stripped of margin - shown above) and either subtracting 100 in a loss or crediting the Adj GS in a win. So for instance, beating an Adj GS "75" team gives you 75 points if you win or -25 points if you lose. From that perspective, Penn is crushing it:

Penn 375 pts
Yale 233
Harv 84
Brwn 80
Prin -19
Dart -90
Corn -106
Colu -335

By dividing those numbers above by 100 you can get a metric for "wins against your own schedule relative to what a national average team would have done."

As you can see, Penn, which was handily defeated in its two losses, and Yale separate themselves from Harvard, which actually has a resume very similar to Brown's. Meanwhile, on the flip side, Princeton and Cornell's resumes look a lot more impressive, while Dartmouth and Columbia's are less so.

While resume isn't as great a predictor as margin-adjusted metrics are, what is important to note is that Penn's resume is outstanding. If it splits with Toledo/Temple and takes care of Monmouth/St. Joe's, it will actually have a resume worthy of an at-large bid heading into Ivy play, as crazy as that sounds. And that's a slate of 14 games where it could have as many as three tier II games and a tier I game and no fewer than two tier II games.

Hopefully that helps as some context here.
Bryan
Sophomore
Posts 140
12-28-18 09:18 AM - Post#270238    

Ken Pomeroy recently wrote an article with his current estimates of the leading teams for each conference title for The Athletic. The link was also available through his Twitter feed. He has Yale, Penn and Harvard relatively even at 42, 39 and 38% respectively. (Those sum to more than 100% reflecting a chance of a tie for the regular season title). He also notes "Harvard is still awaiting the return of Seth Towns and Bryce Aiken from injuries, which isn’t accounted for in these numbers." The link is:

https://theathletic.com/734048/2018/12/26/ken pom-t...

As of this morning Pomeroy has those 3 rated 97, 98 and 99 nationally. I'd be surprised if the Ivy has had 3 teams in the Top 100 anytime since the 1960's.

bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1211
12-28-18 11:00 AM - Post#270250    

Aiken and Towns status are wild cards. Predicting the future based on y-t-d results is questionable if one or two of them return. Same applies to Princeton chances based on the appearance of Llewellyn, Return of Alarie from injury completely altered the Princeton women's trend line.

If Aiken and Towns return relatively healthy, past performance of Harvard is not a leading indicator.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
12-28-18 11:10 AM - Post#270251    

I think the Aiken/Towns returns are wishful thinking at this point. At least Towns has been reported as on the court during pregame by an independent source so I haven't completely written that off. But Aiken hasn't played basketball at all in over a year and hasn't faced an IL opponent since his freshmen year. His coach is recently on record as saying it's up to him when he returns. This is all very strange and it wouldn't surprise me if we never see Bryce Aiken in a Harvard jersey again. I am less confident on Towns but I don't see the logic in a kid like Towns wasting a year of eligibility on half a season (his playing status also "up to him")
westcoast
Junior
Posts 244
12-29-18 10:47 PM - Post#270436    

The wins by Brown and Princeton on Saturday have pushed the Ivy League ahead of the Missouri Valley Conference. The Ivy League is now #12 - next up is the Mountain West.
penn nation
Professor
Posts 13371
12-29-18 11:04 PM - Post#270437    

Same with Bart Torvik's site. IL narrowly behind the MW and A10. Definitely conceivable it ends up #10 by the end of OOC play.
Streamers
Postdoc
Posts 3877
Streamers
12-30-18 08:47 AM - Post#270449    

Penn’s big loss has them out of the KenPom top 100 proving the injury factor works both ways; but don’t look now... Brown is up to 134.

This year’s OOC performance for the Ivies is the best I can remember in a LONG time.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
12-30-18 01:24 PM - Post#270472    

A few different sets of thoughts here:

1) A few things to clear up from PF10's post. First, Bryce did play in Ivy play last year. He saw the floor in a brief stint at Dartmouth before deciding to wait a few more weeks. He played 33 mins over two games on Brown/Yale weekend, including 18 points in 20 mins (38% usage) against Brown. It was the next weekend at Columbia where he retweaked it and decided to shut it down for the year.

Second, both Bryce and Seth have been on the floor before/after games - Aiken actually more than Towns, getting up a fair deal of shots.

Third, all of this comes back to Amaker's policies. Agreeing or disagreeing is totally up to you, but he's dogged in his insistence on the separation between expectations and standards. For Tommy, expectations are external, and he avoids addressing them. Whether it be polls or other accolades (or expectations for injured players), he's rarely going to answer a question that would indicate that those matter. The point is to keep the focus on what the people that can play have to do and not let the external forces set the expectation of excuses on the program. It's the culture he sets - you can like it or not, but it's consistent.

As for Ivy performance, here are some fun ones... starting with 2018 and 2019 Torvik ratings mashed together into one set of standings:

1) Harvard 2019 .7358
2) Penn 2019 .7081
3) Yale 2019 .6989
4) Penn 2018 .6643
5) Brown 2019 .6483
6) Harvard 2018 .5859
7) Princeton 2018 .4681
8) Princeton 2019 .4539
9) Dartmouth 2019 .4370
10) Yale 2018 .4244

Top three are all 2019, four of the top five and six of the top nine. Crazy improvement YOY especially with the injuries.

Second, if you think this is the best Ivy performance in the non-conference, you're certainly right for this decade (and probably right all the way back to the start of the AI era)...

2019 53 (Avg. Game Score)
2014 51
2016 51
2015 49
2011 47
2012 47
2017 45
2018 44
2013 42
2010 40

Third, this year has now yielded seven of the Top 40 non-conference wins in Adjusted Game Score (i.e. margin is excluded, so just the raw value of the win itself):

8) Princeton @ ASU (91)
11) Harvard @ St. Mary's (91)
21) Yale @ Miami (86)
29) Brown @ San Diego St. (81)
31) Penn vs. Villanova (79)
39) Penn vs. Miami (77)
40) Harvard @ UMass (76)

We only had six total the past three seasons.

Finally, if we look at best average game score (does include margin) months this year, there have been four strong ones by four different teams:

Nov Yale 76
Dec Penn 74
Nov Harv 74
Dec Brwn 72

Only Princeton's Dec average of 52 is keeping those four teams from having the top 8 months, as the Tigers' Dec (52) is barely ahead of Brown's Nov (50).

SRP
Postdoc
Posts 3844
12-30-18 03:33 PM - Post#270483    

And the fearful whisper passing among the Ivies is "Brown is playing defense." That will certainly make it more likely that the fifth place team will be pretty good.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1211
12-30-18 05:45 PM - Post#270502    

At the end of the day, 1st and the 4th seeds may simply come down to one shot or one turnover etc. The seeds may also very well be decided by injuries or non-injuries.

Yale finally seems to be dodging the bullet regarding injuries after a string of them over the past two years. I would not be surprised if Jones has the Bulldogs ready to be very tough and challenging to beat. A huge plus for Yale is that they have two guys who can create and get off good shots at the end of a game -- Oni and Copeland. Some IL teams do not have a player who can create on his own at game's end.

Makai Mason is playing very well at 8-4 Baylor and has the most minutes per game than any other Baylor player. IL results may have been different if he had been on the floor for four years at Yale as he could create and make critical shots on his own when needed.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
12-31-18 08:47 AM - Post#270547    

Also humorous...

The top five teams in the Ivy are 4-7 in Tier I games, but 1-6 in Tier II games. It's both odd that they've had so many more Tier I opportunities and that the record in Tier I games is so much stronger.
Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts 5565
Chip Bayers
12-31-18 12:34 PM - Post#270561    

Which means we know what the handy excuse will be if an Ivy or 3 are actually being considered as at-large bubble candidates come selection time.

PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
12-31-18 12:45 PM - Post#270566    

MJ mentioned this earlier but if Penn were to win out in the non conference (Monmouth, Temple, St Joes) and go something like 12-2/13-1 in conference play while losing in the ILT, it would be an interesting profile for the at large committee. Especially if Nova ends up a conference Champ and Miami finishes in top 3rd of their conference. And if George Mason gets hot and wins the A10 by some miracle.....
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 749
12-31-18 01:44 PM - Post#270590    

2-bid ivy???? LOL
"...no excuses - only results!”

Naismith
Freshman
Posts 61
12-31-18 02:07 PM - Post#270599    

2nd bid has been long-time Ivy League illusion.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
12-31-18 02:12 PM - Post#270604    

Just make sure you guys show up here when it happens one day. Same type of poster who said IL would never be a top 10 conference I am pretty sure.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1211
12-31-18 03:36 PM - Post#270678    

I agree that the IL may earn 2 bids in the not too distant future. The league's performance this year has been a good sign. In fairness, a number of individuals have been a tad bit overly optimistic as to how fast that the 2nd bid was going to take place. There was even some talk albeit from a few that an IL team could be a two bid league or have a top 25 team this year - delirious? Reality sometimes gets blurred with optimism or pessimism.

My point has always been that the introduction of IvyMadness should have been timed to when the league is really positioned to be a two bid league.

The ultimate test as to who is right or wrong is reality. So far, no two bids and still a pretty good way to go. I would not be surprised if IL women get two bids on a more consistent basis but time will tell.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
12-31-18 05:31 PM - Post#270690    

I think we will have 1 or 2 IL teams with profiles for a 2nd bid in the next year or two. I don't think we will get the bid, but having a resume that is competitive for a bid (quantitatively) is the first step.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
12-31-18 06:47 PM - Post#270697    

Correct. We’ve already had a team that has an at-large resume objectively (Wins Against Bubble - Harvard 2010-11). That is no guarantee of selection, especially if you’re a mid, but as PF10 says - the first benchmark should be having teams that are objectively qualified based on resume. That’s even leaving aside teams being qualified based on rankings (RPI, now NET, KenPom or Bart, which we have had multiple at-large caliber ranked teams this decade).

Now, we can debate what *actually* happens in the room - and I agree with the skeptics, especially based on the decisions made later this decade (after an okay view towards mids in spots earlier this decade). But my KPI that I’m tracking is objective measures of resume, and I do think we’ll have another (possibly better situated) positive WAB team that isn’t our auto bid in the very near future.
westcoast
Junior
Posts 244
12-31-18 07:49 PM - Post#270704    

Penn's loss to Monmouth moves the league's overall ranking back to #13 on Kenpom. Several opportunities on Wednesday for the Ivy League to improve its standing, including Dartmouth at #118 Vermont, Cornell at #159 Wake Forest, and Harvard at #7 North Carolina.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1211
01-02-19 10:35 PM - Post#270935    

All six favorites won this evening with only Columbia not covering the spread but just by 1 pt. Looking at some of tonight's games, Dartmouth played tough and was only down by 4 pts with 11 minutes to go which was a bit of a surprise. Dartmouth and Brown continue to exceed preseason projections.

As the IL season is fast approaching, it does not appear that any team will be dominant although you never know. It seems like Yale is the most complete team and to date no injuries -- they have good balance as to how the team is comprised as to size and complimentary skills plus Jones can coach.

Unless some team goes 16-0, IL will be probably be a one bid league and you only need to be in the top 4 as we know for Ivy Madness. Competition may exist for 4th spot at year's end in all likelihood.

Which team steps up - we will begin to see early returns starting Saturday. Hopefully, the best team goes to the Big Dance but no guarantees as we are blessed to have Ivy Madness decide. We do know Yale has homecourt at the end of the season.
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
01-03-19 01:30 AM - Post#270949    

Brad, Thanks for your usual diligence and attention to details- there were, in fact, six games played last night involving Ivy schools, 3 of which resulted Ivy victories, including Columbia's first true road victory.

westcoast
Junior
Posts 244
01-03-19 01:58 AM - Post#270950    

  • bradley Said:
All six favorites won this evening with only Columbia not covering the spread but just by 1 pt.

Yeah, all six Ivy games tonight basically went as predicted, and the League stays at #13, just behind the MVC. I don't see many more chances for the league to improve its standing - just Penn playing Temple and St. Joe's. So most likely, the Ivy will finish around #12-14 among all D-1 conferences, which I believe is as good a finish as any season this century.

SRP
Postdoc
Posts 3844
01-03-19 01:43 PM - Post#270998    

And by not covering the spread, Columbia made the SportsCenter highlights (including the Top Ten) on Stefanini's buzzer-beater.
Bruno
PhD Student
Posts 1111
01-08-19 08:36 AM - Post#271752    

Back up to 12th
LET'S go BRU-no (duh. nuh. nuh-nuh-nuh)

Bruno
PhD Student
Posts 1111
01-08-19 08:38 AM - Post#271753    

Back up to 12th
LET'S go BRU-no (duh. nuh. nuh-nuh-nuh)

Streamers
Postdoc
Posts 3877
Streamers
01-08-19 12:16 PM - Post#271770    

KenPom Team watch:

Yale 89
Harvard 100
Penn 125
Brown 136
Princeton 176
Dartmouth 222
Columbia 234
Cornell 258

At this point where most of the OOC games are done, the league average is 150. I wonder when was the last time it was that good? Penn still has Temple at 71 and St. Joes at 146 and nobody else has anyone left in the top 200; after that the teams all beat up on each other so I expect the league has peaked.
HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
01-10-19 02:57 PM - Post#271990    

No one can doubt that the Ivy League regular season looks to be a scrum between at least 5 teams. Certainly, Yale, Princeton and Brown are on the upswing and we can anticipate that Penn will be as well once healthy. Harvard is competitive, but could take a major step forward if either Bryce Aiken or Seth Towns return and can contribute.

This year, no Ivy squad is currently ranked below 243 in KenPom, meaning that despite all of the focus on the big dogs, Dartmouth, Columbia and Cornell might have a say in who goes to the Tournament.

For instance:
- Columbia has put together a strong 4 game stretch, including close losses at BC, Rutgers and Northwestern. Mike Smith's offense could threaten to win any game, but Columbia sure is playing well without him;
- Cornell's Matt Morgan can, on any given night, win a game all by himself. He's averaging 23.6ppg while shooting 45.5% from 3. On six occasions, Morgan has hit at least 5 trey's in a game. In those 6 games, he has shot almost 60% on 3's averaging 29ppg. If Morgan goes off like he did last night (38pts on 9-14 3's), Cornell can beat anyone.
- Dartmouth is winning games, especially at home where the Big Green are 7-1. Knight is emerging inside and Barry, Sistare and Foye are combinging to average more than 7 3's per game on 50%+ shooting.
- Just in case anyone still considers Brown as an outsider, this 11-4 squad is #130KP and has won its last 5 games. Desmond Cambridge, like Cornell's Morgan, can win a game all by himself (e.g., 31pts on 7-13 3's and 25pts on 7-11 3's in recent games)

Y, P, P and H may have high expectations, but I wouldn't take any game for granted.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1211
01-11-19 08:04 AM - Post#272056    

Completely agree. It is not out of the realm of possibility at all that all IL teams could be 1-1 after playing head to head.

It should be a grind this year to win the IL regular season and whoever can close out games and avoid injuries may get the golden ring although the golden ring is only worth the first seed at Yale for IvyMadness.
JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts 333
01-11-19 11:13 AM - Post#272092    

Only the most casual of observers will take an Ivy game for granted. Morgan will become the most prolific scorer in Cornell history, surpassing Ryan Wittman, in his next game. He will graduate as the second leading scorer in Ivy history. He gives the Big Red a puncher's chance in every game. Brown will sneak up on no one. The back-to-backs in Providence and New Haven are dreadful to contemplate.
bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1211
01-11-19 01:56 PM - Post#272131    

According to ESPN, Harvard has a 52.5% chance to win while Penn is a heavy favorite at 76.5%.

It is always interesting to match up results vs. predictions over time.
Vonsid
Freshman
Posts 80
01-11-19 08:38 PM - Post#272146    

I'll leave this here...

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/bracke...
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts 749
01-11-19 10:34 PM - Post#272148    

Princeton. I can see it.
"...no excuses - only results!”

westcoast
Junior
Posts 244
01-11-19 11:12 PM - Post#272153    

I'm sure ESPN is just picking the team currently in first place. Although it wouldn't surprise me to any of these 5 teams win the league - Harvard, Yale, Penn, Brown, Princeton.
Streamers
Postdoc
Posts 3877
Streamers
01-12-19 08:11 AM - Post#272163    

Lunardi has said as much about putting in the current leader in past years. Brown is defintely better than we thought coming in, creating a 5’s a crowd situation for the Tournament. Ask me about Princeton after today. They need to prove some things before I take them seriously.
rbg
PhD Student
Posts 1907
01-12-19 11:04 AM - Post#272176    

That's a shame. I would hope that the ESPN bracketologist would put just a little bit of effort into the mid-majors conference.

While they are not my team, it's hard not to see how Yale is not put in place as the Ivy representative at this time. A few weeks ago, after the wins against Miami, UNM and Villanova, it would have been understandable to choose Penn, but things are a bit different as of a few days ago.

Yale is 10-3 with a win at Miami and a overtime loss at Memphis. They are also the top team in KenPom at #90 and are at #26 in the most recent College Insider Mid-Major poll. And, maybe most important, they get the Ivy Tournament on their home court.

I totally agree with those who think the regular season looks to be a 5 team race, and the other 3 teams are legitimate spoilers with at least one of those making a run to beak into the top half. However, being asked to look into the future to pick the winner of the Ivy Tournament should provide a different result.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
01-12-19 12:18 PM - Post#272183    

Lunardi has specific rules about how he fills the auto bids - always the team with the best record and in the event of a tie, he takes the one with the best RPI (now NET) of the tied teams.

I’d agree that at the moment, if you were being predictive, you’d slot Yale in (probably as a 12 or 13), but given Lunardi’s rules, January is usually a wonky month for the league in his bracket.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 3844
01-12-19 05:11 PM - Post#272328    

Penn posters before and during this season tended to be pretty dismissive of Princeton's chances. Looking a lot better now, but Yale is the favorite.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1252
01-12-19 05:12 PM - Post#272330    

Did the Tigers prove anything to you today Streamers?
HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
01-12-19 05:14 PM - Post#272332    

Reports of Princeton's demise were apparently premature.

Princeton did have some issues playing without Cannady and Lewellyn early on. Then Stephens got hurt.
Streamers
Postdoc
Posts 3877
Streamers
01-12-19 06:44 PM - Post#272343    

Princeton affirmed what I thought of them a week ago. They have 7 guys who can play with anyone in the league. Cannady and Stephens are really good. Much, Morales and DeRosiers are excellent role players and Llewelyn is a work in progress. RA at the 5 is the secret sauce on offense, with his inside game although he is not great defensively. He and Stephens killed Penn on the offensive boards. That (and the inability to make good shots) did Penn in. Give Henderson much credit for a defensive scheme that really messed up Penn’s motion stuff. I have not seen Brown or Harvard this year, but Yale will give the Tigers more trouble than Penn did.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 3844
01-12-19 08:04 PM - Post#272360    

Yale will give everyone more trouble.
HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
01-12-19 09:04 PM - Post#272395    

What are the odds that by the open of weekend play favorites Penn, Yale and Harvard will be winless and tied for last? We're halfway there.
JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts 333
01-12-19 09:12 PM - Post#272398    

Yale will give everyone more trouble...12-2 would not be a surprise from that club
Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts 5565
Chip Bayers
01-12-19 09:12 PM - Post#272399    

The Penn and Harvard losses make the upcoming Yale-Brown games next week and the week after so intriguing. By Pomeroy Brown should definitely be in the thick of it for a playoff spot; if they win at least one of these next two it could turn into a free-for-all for the four spots at Payne-Whitney.

bradley
PhD Student
Posts 1211
01-12-19 09:15 PM - Post#272400    

Most teams could still be 1-1 after the head to head games other than obviously Penn. If either Yale or Brown are 2-0 after their head to head, watch out for that team.

Three games -- three upsets based on the predictions. I sometimes wonder if the analytics are lagging vs. leading indicators. The pt spreads today for both games seemed excesssive based on how these teams have been recently played based on eyes versus the numbers. The total point prediction for the Palestra game appeared to be grossly excessive based on the game at Jadwin and how hard and well both teams played defense.
westcoast
Junior
Posts 244
01-31-19 11:33 PM - Post#274331    

As of late night on January 31, the Ivy League is now ranked #11 on KenPom, just slightly ahead of the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West.
whitakk
Junior
Posts 285
02-01-19 10:21 PM - Post#274686    

55-43, 60-58, 65-49 not exactly the prettiest showcase of that ranking today...

D-I average is 74ppg this year, Ivies have reached that in three of 24 tries so far.

Reminds me of 2015 (actually the last year the Ivy was quite good as a whole), when there were a lot of good defenses and a lot of ugly games.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
02-06-19 09:11 PM - Post#275293    

Possibly for a fleeting moment... the Ivy League is No. 10 at KenPom.
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
02-06-19 10:14 PM - Post#275295    

we’ll take it and remind all of those naysayers who mocked some of us who thought it could happen.....even if briefly.
westcoast
Junior
Posts 244
02-06-19 11:22 PM - Post#275299    

And a few hours later, back to #11. But the numbers between the Ivy and the Southern are so close that it will probably be switching back and forth for the rest of the season.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
02-07-19 09:49 AM - Post#275329    

It is interesting to see that if you look at the leagues around us, here's how many seniors they have of the five players on the KP All-Conference team:

4
9) MAC
10) SoCon

3
13) MWC
14) Fun Belt

1
8) WCC
11) Ivy

0
12) A10

Should be a decent chance to hold or climb next year, as well.
HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
02-07-19 10:23 AM - Post#275330    

Big weekend. A few key questions that come to my mind:

- Princeton (4-0): do either of Cannady or Lewellyn play? After games at Yale and then Brown, will Princeton retain the lead (6-0 or 5-1) or drop to 4-2?
- Yale (3-1): will Yale rebound from a loss at Harvard and re-establish itself as the favorite by beating the P's at home?
- Harvard (3-1): at Lavietes for third consecutive week, can the Crimson exhibit the defensive intensity that has allowed only 51.7 ppg in that stretch? Key question: can Justin Bassey handle Morgan and Stefanini the way he thwarted Cambridge and Oni (en route to co-POW)? Finally, is there a Seth Towns sighting?
- Cornell (2-2): Can Big Red emerge from Dartmouth and Harvard at .500 or better? Key weekend for them in quest for tournament.
- Penn (1-3): Tough weekend at Yale and Brown. Penn fans seem focused on whether Max can contribute this weekend. Can Penn right the ship or at least win a big one at Brown? Dangerous road games as Quakers do not want to dig a hole again, this time at 1-5.
- Columbia (1-3): Can Columbia finish off what could be a close contest at Dartmouth for a much needed win? Can Columbia muster the red hot shooting it will likely need to win at Lavietes? Tape will be busy with Chris Knight and Chris Lewis.
- Brown (1-3): Time to see what Brown is made of. Hosting depleted Princeton and out of sync Penn gives Brown opportunity to jump back into the tournament race. Loss(es) at home will certainly hurt bigly. Key question: does Desmond Cambridge figure things out? Tough to win when your leading scorer shoots 1-10+. Does Anderson return?
- Dartmouth (1-3): With two games at home against Penn and Princeton, this weekend could end Dartmouth's playoff hopes. Does the shooting touch return?

Summary:
- Harvard and Yale can solidify positions at top of the league, possibly both at 5-1;
- Princeton incurs first loss(es);
- Cornell must win at Dartmouth to stay in top half at 3-3. Sweep by Big Red would be huge;
- Chance for Brown or Penn to make a move - big game Friday in Providence;
- Columbia and Dartmouth are hanging on but could emerge at 1-5 and likely a tremendous long shot for the tournament.

Weekends like this are what Ivy Basketball is all about!
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
02-07-19 10:44 AM - Post#275336    

  • PennFan10 Said:
we’ll take it and remind all of those naysayers who mocked some of us who thought it could happen.....even if briefly.



Who's mocking you, Sam? Just want to see you back in the NBA where you belong- know you would have have never signed off on those Butler and Tobias moves as they went down, correct?

AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
02-07-19 10:57 AM - Post#275339    

Great work as always, HDG; and I can merely add or detract two cents to or from it: If Bassey can stand up against the best of Brown and Yale, then he'll find those guys from Cornell and Columbia to be a piece of New York State cheesecake, delivered to him straight from Junior's Restaurant in Brooklyn!
Also, I would hesitate to include Columbia in any basketball-related sentence with Dartmouth. Those two Dartmouth-Harvard games were more than entertaining; and really will continue to stand out on the Green's resume, no matter what else transpires during the next six weeks- on any given day, they can beat anyone in the IL, for sure; can't quite get myself to say the same about the Lions, as much as I'd love to!

PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
02-07-19 11:08 AM - Post#275340    

HVG-great questions and summary of things to look for.

**Last bullet says "Dartmouth at home against Penn and Princeton..." Obviously you meant the C's not the P's.

I would be shocked if Cannaday plays this weekend. I don't think you bring him back without some sort of conclusion, which likely involves the courts and that's not a short term thing.

Penn fans should be focused on Mike Wang and the need for him to have 2 great games this weekend. Max will do what he does, but to beat Brown and Yale, we need Mike and 30+ pts from him this weekend.

Bassey is an elite defender, but no one is stopping Morgan. No one.

I had high expectations but Tape had a bad weekend last week against RA and AJ. Lewis and Knight won't make it any easier for him.

Speaking of which the level of play for the top bigs in the Ivy is insane. AJ, Richmond, Lewis, Knight, Atkinson/Bruner, and even Choh are all having outstanding seasons.


AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
02-07-19 11:20 AM - Post#275343    

Two entire games played in 25 hours time conceivably can stop the best of us.

HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
02-07-19 11:50 AM - Post#275347    

Thanks for the correction. Yes, the C's travel to Cambridge/Hanover.

Other than Princeton at Brown on Saturday (6pm), all games tip off around 7pm. Too soon for meaningful scoreboard watching?
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
02-07-19 11:52 AM - Post#275348    

Expected wins this weekend:

Princeton: 0.55
Yale: 1.53
Harvard: 1.77
Cornell: 0.40
Penn: 0.66
Brown: 1.26
Dartmouth: 1.46
Columbia: 0.37

So, if you're thinking about good outcomes for teams, clearly any splits by Princeton, Cornell, Penn and Columbia would be a good outcome (sweep would be an amazing outcome). On the flip side, anything less than a sweep for Yale, Harvard, Brown and Dartmouth would be a bad weekend.

One sneaky thing I'm watching is Columbia's defensive TO rate forced, and particularly its steal rate (10.8% - 54th nationally). Someone's going to win the 3PT lottery again against Harvard (like Dartmouth did - and the Lions are capable of) and while Columbia's defense is bad, if it can force the Crimson into a 25% range on TOs with a significant portion that are live... it really won't matter what Harvard can do when it's not turning the ball over.
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
02-07-19 12:13 PM - Post#275350    

mrj: Columbia's lost 14 straight IL road games, so .37 of a win on Friday or Saturday evening may actually taste pretty good!

HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
02-07-19 12:19 PM - Post#275351    

Interesting perspective.

Things that really stand out to me are likelihood of Dartmouth sweeping and chances that Princeton and Penn get swept. This is not my father's Ivy League!

Harvard should be sharp and aggressive vs Columbia on Friday night but Columbia - which is short on depth - should have a scheme in place.

With both Dartmouth and Columbia having a short bench, Saturday night could be unpredictable.

Penn might be fortunate to play Brown on a Friday if Max's back is an issue. On the other hand, Wang's health might countervail that thought.

As a Harvard fan, I guess I'll root for Dartmouth and Cornell to play multiple OT's on Friday, with Matt Morgan playing every minute and contesting from end to end and then pushing the bus all the way from Hanover to Cambridge!

PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
02-07-19 02:01 PM - Post#275359    

Neither Mike Wang or Max have any injury limitations for this weekend (nor have they for a couple weeks). Quakers are physically at full strength.

This weekend seems to me to be when we find out what Brown is really made of. These are the teams/games they will need to win to push into the top half of the league for the first time in many years.


mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
02-07-19 04:14 PM - Post#275370    

Opening lines:

Princeton (+7) at Yale
Penn (-1.5) at Brown
Columbia (+10.5) at Harvard
Cornell (+3.5) at Dartmouth

That Penn-Brown line is, umm, interesting.
HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
02-07-19 04:20 PM - Post#275371    

Penn/Brown is a huge game. This year in particular it will be rough to start 1-4 and make the tournament. Worse for Brown if it cedes a tie breaker to Penn by losing to the Quakers at home.

After Penn travels to Yale on Saturday, Penn then finishes with 6 of 8 at home. Even at 1-5 Penn's chances would not be dead. At 2-4 they would be very much alive.
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
02-07-19 04:25 PM - Post#275374    

I have Penn at about 25% to make it even at 1-5.
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
02-07-19 04:35 PM - Post#275376    

And DCambridge is just too good a player to have 5 consecutive bad IL games-think he'll show up BIG enough tomorrow night; and the favorites should prevail in the three other IL tilts; though the Crimson perhaps by not so much as the Lions will break in what is now typically excruciating, Columbian fashion.

PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
02-07-19 05:12 PM - Post#275393    

I am hoping Cambridge is too good to make it 6 consecutive bad games. We need that 5th one....
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts 2397
02-07-19 05:12 PM - Post#275394    

Penn -1.5 is a sucker bet.
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
02-07-19 06:13 PM - Post#275404    

  • PennFan10 Said:
I am hoping Cambridge is too good to make it 6 consecutive bad games. We need that 5th one....

you don't need anything of the kind, Sam! To hear SomeGuy tell it, you can lose six straight more, and still get in at 5-9!

penn nation
Professor
Posts 13371
02-07-19 09:12 PM - Post#275427    

I would hate to be against you.

Then I'd be Anti-Anti Ungvar and I'd have to join the AAU.

At least I could contribute to the scouting reports, though.
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
02-07-19 09:25 PM - Post#275428    

I love you, professor- at least more than most white people here do. Just try to offer some temperate remarks about the officials you may observe this weekend.

SomeGuy
Postdoc
Posts 4935
02-07-19 09:55 PM - Post#275429    

You’re not reading my stuff very well — I think 8-6 likely will be required to get in this year.
HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
02-07-19 10:04 PM - Post#275430    

Harvard/Columbia line went up to -12 but is now at -11.5

Harvard had a great run last weekend, not sure they can win every game decisively at home, even if they did it against Yale.


AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
02-07-19 11:44 PM - Post#275436    

  • SomeGuy Said:
You’re not reading my stuff very well.

On rare occasion, even I can take pride in finding myself on the right track.

HARVARDDADGRAD
PhD Student
Posts 1704
02-08-19 07:43 AM - Post#275443    

Brown vs Penn line now even
Harvard -11 vs Columbia

Is this board moving markets?
mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
02-08-19 08:50 AM - Post#275454    

Shop wisely... appears you can get both Penn and Brown at +1 right now. Seems to be value on Brown and the under, regardless. 139 seems like a lot of points for two good defensive teams.
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts 530
02-08-19 09:53 AM - Post#275473    

Upon further review, I'm thinking that game in Hanover tonight may be a really, really good one- with Syracuse Coach Boeheim's son being a difference maker for Big Red!

penn nation
Professor
Posts 13371
02-08-19 01:59 PM - Post#275503    

  • HARVARDDADGRAD Said:
Brown vs Penn line now even
Harvard -11 vs Columbia

Is this board moving markets?



I thought we were the market.

mrjames
Professor
Posts 5556
02-08-19 05:53 PM - Post#275523    

Late action seems to have pushed the O/U higher and made Penn the favorite again. Seems absurd from a matchup perspective, but I'll defer to the experts...

Somewhat comforting that folks saw the same value in the Columbia ML that I did...
SomeGuy
Postdoc
Posts 4935
02-09-19 12:20 PM - Post#275657    

Because I am a coward, and because Cambridge is tremendously streaky and can get very hot, I didn’t want to respond to this until after last night’s game . . .. But this is now 11 straight Ivy games where Cambridge has failed to shoot better than 43% from the field. Only twice in those 11 games has he even made more than 33% (and both of those were last year). Could just be a slump/psychological, but familiarity may be key too — he shot at least 38% in his first game against every Ivy team last year, and he got worse the second time around against 6 of 7 teams, and the only exception was the back to back at the start with Yale his freshman year.

I can say that now, and hopefully he’ll now prove me totally wrong against Princeton, Yale, and Harvard, and any karma impacts will be gone by the time Penn plays Brown at the Palestra.
Streamers
Postdoc
Posts 3877
Streamers
02-09-19 12:38 PM - Post#275661    

Last night Cambridge was hitting circus shots again, but Woods kept him from stealing the game with them.
SomeGuy
Postdoc
Posts 4935
02-09-19 01:04 PM - Post#275670    

He missed a lot of them too. He got his points, unlike the first few Ivy games, but it wasn’t a real efficient 21. He hit 3s at a high enough clip to make it ok, but he was 7 for 21 overall.
Streamers
Postdoc
Posts 3877
Streamers
02-09-19 02:04 PM - Post#275682    

Well, he did a lot better than he had been for a while and Woods (and Devon at times) had a LOT to do with his lack of efficiency. Plus he was forcing shots in the last 3 minutes.



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