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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3589 |
12-09-18 07:42 PM - Post#268424
While the soon to debut Princeton guard may have a say Rookie of the Year is shaping up to be a 2 horse race between Harvard’s Noah Kirkwood and Penn’s Michael Wang. Any other contenders? |
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whitakk Masters Student Posts 523 |
12-09-18 08:21 PM - Post#268427
Tough year for rookies given the talent ahead of them now -- Samuels and Nweke are the only others really getting time. Would have to be Wang today, but going forward I might still bet on Llewellyn after what we saw today, given the talent and opportunity he'll have going forward. But this award has often gone to late bloomers (Miles Wright most obviously, but even Cambridge didn't stand out so much at this point last year). |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
12-09-18 09:24 PM - Post#268433
I’ll stick to my preseason thoughts. Llewellyn and Kirkwood are the best players and should play enough to have the inside track. Michael Wang had the biggest senior year jump and along with Taurus Samuels looked like the other two guys that had the talent and could get enough playing time. Those four look like the players that could do it. I still think it’ll be Llewellyn going away, though. Princeton NEEDS him, and he’s really, really good. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3589 |
12-09-18 09:49 PM - Post#268435
I think you underestimate how much Penn needs Wang with Betley’s injury. Between that and Darnell/Caleb’s departure there are 20 shots a game up for grabs. As Wang gets more and more comfortable he is gonna be a problem for IL teams. Llewelyn had a great premiere. Let’s see how he progresses. Kirkwoods minutes will be dependent on the big 3’s health I would think and if those guys get back to 30 minute players Kirkwood will be diluted by Duricic it would seem |
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Silver Maple Postdoc Posts 3781 |
12-09-18 10:52 PM - Post#268438
Another thing about Wang: not only are the available shots there, but the minutes are as well. Max Rothschild probably won't average much more than 20 minutes a game. He tends to get into foul trouble, and also seems to have a back problem. In addition to being able to go in for Max, Mike can also go in for AJ or whoever's playing the 3. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3589 |
12-10-18 12:51 AM - Post#268445
Max does have a bad back it appears. He has been in foul trouble one game this year so I don’t know what that’s about. AJ has had more foul trouble than Max and neither of them have really had an issue this year. Wang is a much better offensive player than Max right now so that’s what’s driving minutes. |
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Okoro Dude Senior Posts 309 |
12-10-18 10:47 AM - Post#268474
Agree - As I mentioned in a different post, I saw Llewellyn in the Garden yesterday and was very impressed with him. He is likely the most talented freshman and there is no one at Princeton that should be taking minutes from him. |
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jeromelh Junior Posts 215 |
12-10-18 12:10 PM - Post#268482
Impressed is an understatement. This was his first game and he was second to Cannady with 17 points. He may end up being the best overall player in the league by the end of the year. Lightning fast, an excellent passer and a terrific handle. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2697 |
12-10-18 12:35 PM - Post#268491
If you are correct, then Princeton, which has had a slow start without Llewellyn, Cannady, Morales and Gladson at times, may have 3 All-Ivy caliber stars (L, C, and Stephens). Given the presence of Aririzugoh and his improvement, Princeton just need to sort out the 5th starter and those off the bench. "I do believe" that the Tigers will have an impact this year. With Brown's ascendance, this is certainly a 5 team legitimate competition for the tournament. Further, Columbia, Cornell and Dartmouth will win their share of games. Imagine if Gettings, Boudreaux and Meisner were seniors. What a season we would be anticipating! Ivy basketball has risen! |
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Mike Porter Postdoc Posts 3619 
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12-10-18 02:44 PM - Post#268504
Seems like a good problem for the league that there are some really good frosh this class even though it was considered pretty thin in general. From Penn fan perspective, Mike Wang and Bryce Washington are a good bit better than I expected and I'd guess will be Penn starters for a lot of games in their careers. Wang is just a really polished offensive player with brilliant court vision and shot for a 6'10" kid. Defense needs a lot of improvement, but if he can get there will be a challenge. Washington has more room to grow and get more polished, but he already defends, has great form on his 3 point shot, shoots FTs well, and is super athletic (was high jump champ and his highlight video is him dunking a lot). If he can figure out the flow of the offense better, turn the ball over less, and go off the dribble a bit more, he could be really good moving forward also. |
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jeromelh Junior Posts 215 |
12-10-18 03:09 PM - Post#268511
The problem is that Stephens and Much appear to have regressed. I am not sure why. |
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tkapiko Freshman Posts 28 |
12-11-18 05:09 PM - Post#268606
I saw Llewellyn play his first game and he is likely to win it because he will get major minutes on the Tigers' squad. |
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jeromelh Junior Posts 215 |
12-11-18 07:06 PM - Post#268629
He would get major minutes on any of the Ivy teams. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3589 |
12-12-18 01:23 AM - Post#268753
I think Mike Wang has made a pretty big statement in the last few games. He is going to be in the mix for ROY almost certainly. |
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jeromelh Junior Posts 215 |
12-12-18 07:42 AM - Post#268766
Wang is really talented and will be in the mix for ROY. Looked good once again last night. I only saw LLewellyn once, but was incredibly impressed. If he continues at this level, he is a lock. BTW, congrats to the Quakers on an outstanding performance. |
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6415 |
12-12-18 08:39 AM - Post#268769
I know numbers aren’t everything, it’s early, and the situations/positions are different. But what is the argument for Kirkwood being the best player right now, particularly compared to Wang? Kirkwood has an ORAT of 81, a PER of 8, and WS/40 close to zero. His turnover % is 30. Wang has an ORAT of 135, a PER of 29, and WS/40 of .274. It’s not like Wang is doing this in limited touches — his usage rate is up around 25. Basically neck and neck with AJ for tops on the team. |
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jeromelh Junior Posts 215 |
12-12-18 09:37 AM - Post#268778
Fair point. Time will tell. The reason I am so excited about Llewellyn is that I am not used to seeing a Princeton guard that athletic and quick. The St. Johns guards had a difficult time staying in front of him. As other posters have pointed out, he is probably going to play close to 40 minutes each game which will give him an advantage. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
12-12-18 09:48 AM - Post#268780
This early in the season, I’m more interested in ORAT on non-TO possessions. For both freshmen individually and new lineups at a team-level, turnover rates tend to decline over the course of the season, leaving you with more of what a player *can* do. Now, if we’re having this same conversation in late January, then he’s probably whoever he will be (for this season at least). When the full cast returns and Noah isn’t trying to touch 30 every game in usage, we’ll see if he stops trying to weave through traffic and putting himself in situations to commit offensive fouls. Right now, what’s clear is that though he’s immensely talented, not everything that worked at NMH is working at this level, so he has to figure out what will. |
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6415 |
12-12-18 10:49 AM - Post#268805
Well, what are the non-turnover ORATs? Kirkwood presumably goes from very negative to very positive. Since Wang hardly ever turns it over, his number presumably would remain very positive, and clearly higher than Kirkwood’s, unless I am missing something. On Llewellyn, it is definitely too early. First game certainly suggests he’ll be the one to beat, particularly given the pedigree. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3589 |
12-12-18 10:49 AM - Post#268806
If Wang and Llewelyn finish with similar numbers and Penn beats Princeton twice (2 big ifs) I think Wang is the lock. Kirkwood was really impressive in the two games I watched this year so I like what Mr James said about him. If he gets to a better efficiency he will be a problem. In part because opponents will have to use their best defenders on Towns and Aiken and Kirkwood will have some favorable matchups. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
12-12-18 02:12 PM - Post#268871
Easy calc to get to non-TO ORAT is to take ORAT/ (100 - TO Rate). So someone with an 80 ORAT and a roughly average TO Rate (20%) would have a 100 non-TO ORAT. In other words, that person needs to score 1pt per poss on poss that don’t end in a turnover by that person to have an 80 ORAT. For Noah, his calc would be 80/66 or 121. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3589 |
02-02-19 05:01 PM - Post#274780
Well, this situation has certainly changed. Now who do we like? Taurus Samuels? Bryce Washington? Mike W still has a shot if he keeps putting up big numbers but Llewelyn has fallen off the map for this discussion. |
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AntiUngvar Masters Student Posts 530 |
02-02-19 05:36 PM - Post#274786
Sam, You may like this kid Ellis after seeing him, tonight. |
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6415 |
02-03-19 12:43 PM - Post#274913
I think Kirkwood remains in the conversation too. As of today, I’d give it to Washington, with Wang and Kirkwood right behind. But nobody has blown the doors off. Llewellyn could still come on, but he has a sub 80 ORAT right now. I think it will be one of those four, but there is enough season left for Nweke, Samuels, or Ellis to step forward, too. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3589 |
02-12-19 12:56 PM - Post#276056
at the 40% of the IL season mark, Bryce Washington appears to be the front runner for IL ROY having won his 3rd straight and 4th out of 6 ROW awards. Lots of games to be played but unless something happens to Bryce or someone else starts an Aiken-esque rise in performance, that's probably a good bet. |
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Silver Maple Postdoc Posts 3781 |
02-12-19 04:21 PM - Post#276080
Regardless of whether he ends up as ROY, Washington is going to be a very good one. It's easy to see why Pitt was recruiting him so hard. He clearly has poise and a pretty high basketball IQ. He's an unusually good 3 pt. shooter, and (HALLELUJAH!) is also a good free throw shooter. In order to become a more complete player he probably needs to put on a bit of muscle. This will help him score more on penetration, and will probably help him become a better defender. He should probably also work on ball movement and setting up open teammates to score. |
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Jeff2sf Postdoc Posts 4466 |
02-12-19 05:21 PM - Post#276086
Having Betley and Bryce on the floor at the same time next year is going to be such a headache for the other team. |
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Old Bear Postdoc Posts 4002 |
02-12-19 07:32 PM - Post#276097
Bryce is certainly leading, but George Mawanda-Kalema may be a dark horse, assuming he is eligible, he's a Soph, but had hip surgery and didn't play an Ivy game last year. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3589 |
02-12-19 11:45 PM - Post#276110
If Bryce continues at the pace he has been on, someone is going to have to put up some eye popping stats to beat him. If Bryce falls off down the stretch, the door is open. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32863 |
02-13-19 08:05 AM - Post#276116
You can get an extra year, but you cannot be a freshman twice. While this topic says ROY, I believe it is FOY. Perhaps I am wrong about that---I do not recall a soph ever winning. |
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rbg Postdoc Posts 3060 |
02-13-19 10:05 AM - Post#276131
My first thought was that Rookie would mean a player who is new to the Ivy League, whether as a first-year or transfer. However, looking at the 1992-1993 season showed that Matt Maloney, who transferred to Penn from Vanderbilt, was named First Team All-Ivy, but not selected as the Rookie of the Year. That award went to Cornell freshman Pax Whitehead, who actually left Cornell after that one year to go to Vanderbilt. In doing a little digging, the Brown and Dartmouth websites note that the award was initiated in 1970-1971 as the Sophomore of the Year and changed to Rookie of the Year in 1978-1979 to reflect freshman eligibility. |
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