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| Username | Post: Amaker on College Hoops Today with Jon Rothstein | |
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GoBigGreenBasketball Masters Student Posts 806 |
12-31-18 03:25 PM - Post#270614
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bradley PhD Student Posts 1842 |
12-31-18 06:58 PM - Post#270693
Thanks for sharing. Amaker is an impressive guy. He reminds me of a smooth politician as he is measured and careful as what he says. Impression that I got regarding Aiken and Towns is a pretty big question mark but he is playing it close to the vest. I loved his comments at the end that you need to be both good and lucky. I enjoy the information and discussion regarding metrics on this forum but obviously, metrics can not factor a thing called luck. As we witnessed today, end results can sometimes defy metrics on a given day. |
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bradley PhD Student Posts 1842 |
04-11-19 09:16 PM - Post#283590
Article in today's NY Post by Mike Vaccaro that St. John's should take hard look at Amaker to replace Chris Mullins. Apparently AD Cragg has a Duke background and knows Amaker. Doubt it will happen but you never know. |
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Bryan Junior Posts 231 |
04-12-19 09:00 AM - Post#283594
It would be bizarre for Amaker to take the St. John's job now. Successful coaches usually leave when their team will dip the following year. Harvard is likely to be at the top of a cycle next year. From the 2020 projections by Torvik in the Ivy League tab on this board Harvard is projected 36 nationally next year and St. John's is projected 134. If Amaker wants to leave (which is not obvious unless the Duke job opens up) his best course would be to wait until after next year. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3585 |
04-12-19 10:28 AM - Post#283595
It would be stupid for St Johns NOT to look hard at Amaker, or even Dawkins. It would be equally stupid for Amaker to even consider St Johns as a next stop. This seems just a reporter speculating. |
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Mike Porter Postdoc Posts 3618 
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04-12-19 01:46 PM - Post#283598
Yeah it would be smart for St Johns to look at Coach Amaker of course, but I see 0% chance of him wanting to go there. Better jobs in the future would be available if he was so inclined, but he’s got to want to see that senior class next year at a minimum. |
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tkapiko Freshman Posts 28 |
04-12-19 09:45 PM - Post#283604
Yeah. Amaker owes the rising senior class a trip to the NCAA Tournament before contemplating any move. This highly touted class has not been able to live up to expectations as a top 10 recruiting class nationwide. I see why Amaker will stay at least one more year. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
04-13-19 07:18 AM - Post#283605
Empirically untrue. Pretty much dead on pace to hit their projected win shares. The injuries and having to play road Ivy Tourney games shouldn’t distract from the fact that this class has been as advertised. |
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bradley PhD Student Posts 1842 |
04-13-19 10:17 AM - Post#283606
In IL play, Harvard has been 32-6 over the past three years and 55-39 including non-conference play. Two conference regular season championships (ties) with no NCAA invitations. Looking back to expectations shortly after the players were recruited, many IL fans anticipated greater things for the upcoming rising senior class although injuries have decimated this group at times. If they had stayed relatively healthy, Harvard's record over the past two years would have obviously been better, especially non-conference play. Amaker has done a remarkable job in keeping it together and he "owes" nothing special to the senior rising class although it does seem to make sense that he stays at Harvard for next year and beyond. History will look back with perhaps some disappointment as to what may have happened with this group but there should be a big asterisk to their results due to injuries. Hopefully, they have one final opportunity with a healthy group to realize their potential in their senior season. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32831 |
04-14-19 08:53 AM - Post#283611
I'll go with you on injuries....although no worse than the other contenders. The road playoff game excuse is just that. An excuse. They would have played at a neutral site and the crowd composition would have been almost identical to the composition the last 2 years. Penn would have had far more fans than Harvard and Yale almost none. And you supported the tournament at the time, anyway. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3585 |
04-14-19 09:26 AM - Post#283612
Certainly this yers result cannot be attributed to,HCA. Yale was the better team. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2691 |
04-14-19 09:58 AM - Post#283613
As was Harvard at Lavietes. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3585 |
04-14-19 10:20 AM - Post#283614
I agree the results at Lavietes and in the ILT go far beyond the statistical relevance of HCA. Bassey’s health and other factors likely had much more to do with the results. You can’t explain those two results by simply HCA. Harvard, on Feb 1 was much better than Yale and Yale on March 17 was much better than the Crimson. If those two games were played on neutral floors, the results likely wouldn’t be any different, albeit a bit closer. |
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Go Green PhD Student Posts 1149 |
04-14-19 10:42 AM - Post#283615
History will look back with perhaps some disappointment as to what may have happened with this group Penn fans have expressed regret that the Ugonna/Archibong teams of the early 2000s didn't make more noise as well. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2691 |
04-14-19 10:53 AM - Post#283616
Maybe, or maybe not. Harvard did win at Yale as well. Championship game was even well into the second half, a lot of factors led to Yale running away after that, including HCA. I'd assume that if H/Y played 10 times that there would be - at best - a 6-4 split. Heck, H is already up 2-1. The result on any given day can vary. Yale was better by a lot over the final 10 minutes at home. Harvard even/better for the first 110 minutes of play vs Yale this season. Once can't rule out HCA as an influence, especially in a packed house Championship. Appears the League agreed with that so strongly that they made the awful decision to rotate sites. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32831 |
04-14-19 03:16 PM - Post#283619
I agree with you that rotation is ridiculous. It either should be at a neutral site or at the home of the top seed, with a better method of determining top seed than win against next best seed. (Point differential is better--almost anything is better). That being said, Harvard had at least as many fans at Yale during the Championship as did Yale, whose students were on break and its section was virtually empty. The Yale players just beat the Harvard players on that date--HCA was no factor (and that was different from the prior year, when Penn did have more fans at the Palestra). But if you have the best team, you win. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
04-14-19 07:48 PM - Post#283624
If HCA had to do with fans, we’d see wild differences in HCAs across buildings with wildly different levels of fan avidity. We don’t. Common misperception of HCA. |
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bradley PhD Student Posts 1842 |
04-14-19 08:43 PM - Post#283625
Towns and Aiken combined missed 30 of 61 games played over the last two seasons. If healthy, the two of them are clearly top 5 players in the IL, perhaps 1 and 2. If they were reasonably healthy over the past two years, the Crimson probably would have been playing at 2 NCAA Tournaments although IvyMadness could have gotten in the way. Harvard has the best IL record over the last three years even with the injuries. Injuries are part of the game but no IL team has sustainded the level of the injuries as Harvard. The Fab 4s' legacy (Aiken, Towns, Lewis and Bassey) will be less than expected back in 2016 but they do have one more chance to reach a level achieved by few IL teams over time. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32831 |
04-15-19 07:00 AM - Post#283627
You show me statistical evidence of HCA applying to a building where opposing fans outnumber local fans...I'll withdraw that statement. Yale usually is rapidly pro-Yale despite not selling out. We're not talking about ticket sales, we're talking about a tournament held there where there were more fans of the opposing teams. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32831 |
04-15-19 07:03 AM - Post#283628
So what you are saying is that because Harvard has the most top recruits, their injuries are more significant. But Penn and Princeton's injuries (and withdrawals in the case of Princeton) this year and Yale's last year took away a far more important part of those teams than Harvard ever lost. Penn and Princeton, fully rostered, were competitive with Harvard and Yale, but losing key players took them out of serious contention. I think those teams were more affected than Harvard. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
04-15-19 08:02 AM - Post#283630
On the HCA front, I’m not sure what to tell you. I’ve done empirical research on this, others in the cbball analytics space have done research on this, one book I’ve read in the general sports analytics space even deals with it. HCA doesn’t equal fan support. One fascinating tidbit about HCA, though... as the world shifts to higher and higher 3PA/FGA, HCA is starting to erode a bit. As for the injuries, that’s less of an empirical argument and more of an opinion, I guess. Interested to hear the argument for losses that were greater than Towns for the year plus Bassey, Juzang and Lewis playing vast stretches either through injury or finally having to miss games with injuries. That’s a former POY, former 1st Teamer and a guy who’d have a defensive POY by now if that award hadn’t become so senior biased. Not only that, Harvard’s marquee win (@St. Mary’s) came without a two-time 1st Teamer, who missed half the season. For as much as other teams have had injury issues, one other Ivy has had extraordinary injury luck in both years (Penn, then Yale) and that proved too much to overcome. That being said, Harvard’s record against the other Ivy Tourney teams the past two years is a solid 13-3 including a perfect mark road and neutral - that Harvard hasn’t been able to win an unnecessary extra road game each year shouldn’t distract from the dominance they’ve shown in big Ivy games. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32831 |
04-15-19 09:18 AM - Post#283634
What I am saying is that there is unlikely to be any statistics about HCA where the venue is really a neutral site in atmosphere as Yale was this year--it is a unique situation....playing a tournament at a location where the team has minimal local interest and its students are away on break. I didn't think that it was a pro-Yale crowd at all. Even in locations with limited attendance, there still is a HCA when the opponents don't bring fans to the game. As for the effect of injuries, Harvard simply had greater backup talent so that the loss of Towns (especially once Aiken returned) was not nearly as devastating as the loss of Betley or Cannady. Penn survived until it then lost Wang (never was the same after the Toledo injury) and Washington to nagging injuries and finished the year with seniors who were previously deemed not quite good enough to compete for a championship. And Princeton really had 3 guys who played at a top level and losing one was killer for them. Harvard simply went into the sack and pulled out another top recruit. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2691 |
04-15-19 10:44 AM - Post#283642
It appeared to me that Yale fans absolutely outnumbered Harvard fans. |
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mobrien Masters Student Posts 402 |
04-15-19 10:56 AM - Post#283644
Is HCA more about the refs favoring the home team than anything else? And would that explain why a higher 3PA/FGA — since there'd presumably be fewer drives where a foul might be called — seems to decrease HCA? |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32831 |
04-15-19 10:59 AM - Post#283646
You're probably counting the fans of the other two teams who had tickets for both games and rooted against Harvard. That would have happened no matter where the games were played. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2691 |
04-15-19 11:29 AM - Post#283650
I don't think so. I saw what they were wearing as they entered and were inside. Maybe the P's fans purchased Yale clothing after Saturday, but I doubt it. |
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westcoast Senior Posts 302 |
04-15-19 12:25 PM - Post#283655
I agree with HarvardDadGrad - there were a lot more Yale fans than Harvard fans. But HCA is a lot more than fan support. Familiarity with the court and arena, travel, hotels, etc. all are factors. That's why even teams with no significant fan base or attendance still show sizable home court advantages. |
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bradley PhD Student Posts 1842 |
04-15-19 08:10 PM - Post#283668
I agree with HarvardDadGrad - there were a lot more Yale fans than Harvard fans. But HCA is a lot more than fan support. Familiarity with the court and arena, travel, hotels, etc. all are factors. That's why even teams with no significant fan base or attendance still show sizable home court advantages. Exactly -- there is a reason why a home team generally has a 3 pt advantage. Although Harvard arguably had an even greater challenge playing Penn at the Palestra in 2018, they still had a disadvantage in 2019 but at least for them, they will have a home court advantage in 2020 ---- it is indeed called IvyMadness for a number of not so good reasons. Equating the loss of Aiken and Towns to Betley and a banged up freshmen Wang or Cannady is simply an overstatement. There always seems to a bit of jealously wrapped around some of these non-factual statements but it is what it is. |
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SRP Postdoc Posts 4911 |
04-16-19 09:25 PM - Post#283702
Towns's loss was mega-huge. He was way better when healthy than all other offensive options (beyond Aiken) for Harvard. Surviving that loss and being able to "reach into the sack for another top recruit" without collapsing is a good indicator of having a non-disappointing team. (That's not even considering the unfortunate late-season injury that limited Bassey's effectiveness.) I still liked Yale better than the Townes-less Crimson despite the head-to-head record, but it was a whole lot closer than you might think. Even Harvard's loss to UNC was kind of encouraging in that they were not physically overmatched but rather out-skilled without their two best players at scoring and ball-handling, which is not the usual formula for an Ivy loss vs. a backboard-pounding, fast-breaking program like the Tar Heels. |
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