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Username Post: 2019 Patriot League Tournament
BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
03-02-19 10:40 PM - Post#279044    

The field is set.

#1 Colgate
#9 Loyola at #8 Boston University

#4 American
#5 Navy

#2 Bucknell
#10 Holy Cross at #7 Lafayette

#3 Lehigh
#6 Army
Bison89
Professor
Posts 5370
Bison89
03-03-19 10:16 AM - Post#279105    

I don't understand HC. They seem to have good players and decent fan support. BUT they are seeded #10. I wonder what it would take to turn their program around. This is a serious question. So, no, leaving the PL and going to the BE is not an option.

BTW, I loved following and going to PL games when both HC and Bucknell were both top 100 schools. The rivalry was tons of fun. Personally, I am looking forward to the day that HC becomes a PL powerhouse again.
New season, new team, new dream . . .

bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-03-19 11:02 AM - Post#279121    

So if all goes according to form, we have to beat a team that has beaten us once in round one (HC), a team we have beaten 2 times, but was the conference favorite in round 2, and on the road a team we beat by a point at home, and lost to on the road. One thing seems more certain this year than any other. Form likely will not prevail.
jkrun80
Postdoc
Posts 3305
03-03-19 12:44 PM - Post#279136    

  • bison63 Said:
So if all goes according to form, we have to beat a team that has beaten us once in round one (HC), a team we have beaten 2 times, but was the conference favorite in round 2, and on the road a team we beat by a point at home, and lost to on the road. One thing seems more certain this year than any other. Form likely will not prevail.


Actually, we beat Colgate by 3 at home. It would have been 6 but Burns hit a meaningless 3 at the buzzer.
bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-03-19 01:38 PM - Post#279142    

Right, and on second look we do not play HC if “form” prevails. It will actually be LC. I’m not sure how I feel about that, given the beat down we put on them last time. We will never shoot like that again, and they will be very motivated.
Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-03-19 02:52 PM - Post#279158    

One note on Holy Cross is that if they happen to beat LC, they won't have the normal long bus ride to Bucknell. Since they are on break this week, I am sure they would bus directly to Lewisburg after the game Tuesday and thus have plenty of rest for a Thursday game.



jkrun80
Postdoc
Posts 3305
03-03-19 05:03 PM - Post#279177    

  • Bison137 Said:
One note on Holy Cross is that if they happen to beat LC, they won't have the normal long bus ride to Bucknell. Since they are on break this week, I am sure they would bus directly to Lewisburg after the game Tuesday and thus have plenty of rest for a Thursday game.


This might be Holy Cross's year. We've been here before.
HoleinOne
Masters Student
Posts 596
03-03-19 06:25 PM - Post#279188    

For some reason, its Floyd's year when he and HC play Bucknell. Have seen HC several times on TV this year and as a team they normally appear average at best unless they play the Bison. In each of this season's games, Davis had the Bison play him one on one most of the game and he looked like a #1 draft choice. Davis has rarely adjusted the defense this year when they play against other team's stars so hoping he remembers the damage Floyd did both previous games.
BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
03-03-19 06:33 PM - Post#279190    

  • BisonRoadWarrior Said:
The field is set.

#1 Colgate
#9 Loyola at #8 Boston University

#4 American
#5 Navy

#2 Bucknell
#10 Holy Cross at #7 Lafayette

#3 Lehigh
#6 Army


Spring Break Schedules
Colgate: Semifinal and final
Bucknell: Semifinal and final
Lehigh: Semifinal and final
American: Semifinal and final
Navy: Semifinal and final
Army: Semifinal and final
Lafayette: In school for entire tournament
Boston University: Semifinal and final
Loyola: First round and quarterfinal (return on semifinal Sunday)
Holy Cross: First round and quarterfinal (return on semifinal Sunday)

First Round: Tuesday March 5
Quarterfinal: Thursday March 7
Semifinal: Sunday March 10
Final: Wednesday March 13




bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-03-19 09:22 PM - Post#279199    

Advantage Lafayette, except as a 7 seed they’ll need Loyola to advance to take advantage. Loyola at LC final? Could happen in this year’s PL. Think about it! The 10 seed has about as good a chance as anybody.
bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-05-19 10:09 PM - Post#279511    

It’s HC. Hey it’s the 10 seed. Piece of cake, right? This is no ordinary 10 seed.
Bison89
Professor
Posts 5370
Bison89
03-05-19 10:17 PM - Post#279513    

63, I agree. Strange PL season. Anybody can win on any given night.
New season, new team, new dream . . .

BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
03-05-19 10:34 PM - Post#279514    

Boston University beat Loyola 71-63. Javante McCoy 10-of-15 FG, 4-of-6 3FG and 6-of-7 FT for a career-high (by far) 30 points.

BUFan
PhD Student
Posts 1936
BUFan
03-05-19 10:48 PM - Post#279515    

We all know HC can beat us coming off a play in game win. We’ve seen this movie before!
Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-05-19 10:54 PM - Post#279516    

  • bison63 Said:
It’s HC. Hey it’s the 10 seed. Piece of cake, right? This is no ordinary 10 seed.




No, because with their roster they should have finished in the first division. Floyd is likely the most dangerous player in the league, and yet Carmody's offense made him an after-thought. When he was on the floor, he actually took only about 19% of the HC shots. Should have taken at least 30%. Also had a very low rebound rate, considering his ability.

Some will recall the old joke about UNC: "Who is the only man who can stop Michael Jordan? Answer" Dean Smith". This was at a time when Jordan was not featured in the UNC offense despite his talent. The revised version could be "Who is the only man who can stop Jehyve Floyd? Answer: Bill Carmody".



Bison54
PhD Student
Posts 1800
Bison54
03-05-19 11:41 PM - Post#279519    

Absolutely true. Tonight, Floyd seldom was able to receive a pass down low and score because of his position outside. Others (Green) would drive or take 3's, and Floyd was not in position for tip-ins and putbacks. Lafayette's defense was like a team that can lose by 30 or 40.....if HC had used Floyd more, that would have happened.

HoleinOne
Masters Student
Posts 596
03-06-19 10:06 AM - Post#279536    

Will be interesting to see if Davis uses different tactics to guard Floyd. Been frustrated past 2 games to see little creativity to stop this terrible match up for Bison. Suspect HC will plant Floyd under basket and try to foul out Nate and others. Should be good chess match.
Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-06-19 10:32 AM - Post#279541    

  • HoleinOne Said:
Will be interesting to see if Davis uses different tactics to guard Floyd. Been frustrated past 2 games to see little creativity to stop this terrible match up for Bison. Suspect HC will plant Floyd under basket and try to foul out Nate and others. Should be good chess match.




Carmody has very rarely planted Floyd under the basket in his four years at HC. Carmody is so locked into having his center out beyond the foul line in the Princeton Offense that he has refused to adjust, i.e. to use his best player to his best advantage. Insisted on forcing a square peg into a round hole. With a different coach, HC would have been a first division team.



Bison54
PhD Student
Posts 1800
Bison54
03-06-19 11:46 AM - Post#279550    

So it will really depend on how well the Bison can shoot over the zone, won't it? Assuming, of course, that both teams stick with the strategies they have used all year.

jkrun80
Postdoc
Posts 3305
03-06-19 11:50 AM - Post#279552    

Floyd still had 24 points. Grandison also had a big night with 22 pts, 16 reb. They only played 7 players and 4 of the 5 starters played 33+ minutes.
Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-06-19 12:05 PM - Post#279555    

  • Bison54 Said:
So it will really depend on how well the Bison can shoot over the zone, won't it? Assuming, of course, that both teams stick with the strategies they have used all year.




HC has played almost exclusively zone all season - and for all four of Carmody's seasons as coach. But last night they surprised everyone and played a lot of M2M. I guess they felt LC's style of play and reliance on threes would be guarded better by a man defense.



MyOhMighty
Freshman
Posts 16
03-06-19 02:23 PM - Post#279586    

I’d actually love to see Sestina and Newman on the floor at the same time. Newman often seems a little more comfortable than Nate defending the post, and on the offensive end it would free up Nate to be what he wants to be - a stretch 4. Start Bruce at small forward and bring Avi off the bench. Bingo.
Bison54
PhD Student
Posts 1800
Bison54
03-06-19 02:36 PM - Post#279589    

Works if the three avoid foul trouble. Probably won't happen in the first half anyway, just in case. No fould trouble it can happen in later parts of the game

BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
03-06-19 04:37 PM - Post#279604    

Ken Pom tournament projection

.......................Qtrs.....Semi......Final......Champ
1. Colgate........100......83.5.......65.3......46.2
2. Bucknell......100......83.8........57.5......26.1
3. Lehigh..........100.....77.4.......32.3.......14.2
4. American.....100......80.5.......26.0........9.1
6. Army............100.......22.6.......6.6........1.5
8. Boston Univ..67.9.....12.1........3.9........1.0
5. Navy.............100......19.5........3.5........0.7
10. Holy Cross..46.3.....9.0.........2.3.........0.5
9. Loyola..........32.1......4.4.........1.3.........0.3
7. Lafayette......53.7.......7.2.........1.3........0.2

He published this before last night's games.
Bison89
Professor
Posts 5370
Bison89
03-06-19 06:12 PM - Post#279623    

  • BisonRoadWarrior Said:
Ken Pom tournament projection

.......................Qtrs.....Semi......Final......Champ
1. Colgate........100......83.5.......65.3......46.2
2. Bucknell......100......83.8........57.5......26.1
3. Lehigh..........100.....77.4.......32.3.......14.2
4. American.....100......80.5.......26.0........9.1
6. Army............100.......22.6.......6.6........1.5
8. Boston Univ..67.9.....12.1........3.9........1.0
5. Navy.............100......19.5........3.5........0.7
10. Holy Cross..46.3.....9.0.........2.3.........0.5
9. Loyola..........32.1......4.4.........1.3.........0.3
7. Lafayette......53.7.......7.2.........1.3........0.2

He published this before last night's games.



BRW, can you access the KenPom projects from a few years ago when HC made their miraculous run?
New season, new team, new dream . . .

BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
03-06-19 06:35 PM - Post#279626    

No, I got this year’s from a KenPom tweet.

bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-06-19 07:13 PM - Post#279628    

After 30 games, one thing is abundantly clear. There are two Bucknell men’s basketball teams. One shoots well, the other doesn’t. The team that shoots well blew out UNLV, and LC, and maybe you could even include HC which was being blown out until CND turned matters over to the reserves with 8 minutes left. The team that does not shoot well does not fare well against good teams, but is competitive against less strong teams. In the first Army game, both teams showed up for a half. You can probably say that about a few other games, although in a less dramatic form. The UNLV/LC team will win the Pl tournament if it shows up. Not likely to happen for all 3 games, but nobody in the PL will beat that team. As to the team that likely will show up, the one that played 18 of its 30 opponents within 10 points one way or the other, how that team does is anybody’s guess. 3 games, we hope, in March.
BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
03-06-19 07:25 PM - Post#279629    

I looked on Twitter. Looks like he didn't tweet the projection in 2016, instead linking to a page that's no longer available. However, someone tweeted to Ken Pom after the Bucknell loss: "Holy Cross at 2.5% gets it done. Wow."

That game was just the quarterfinal. I'm sure, like this year, the model gave a chance of a Holy Cross championship of less than 1 percent.

A cautionary tale.

Of course, given Holy Cross beat us last outing, I'd like to think there's no complacency in Lewisburg. Especially considering this year's seniors were freshmen on the team that lost to the Crusaders in the quarterfinal.

BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
03-06-19 07:38 PM - Post#279631    

Video preview featuring Avi Toomer
https://youtu.be/xhffM1hIRDg
Bison89
Professor
Posts 5370
Bison89
03-07-19 10:07 AM - Post#279673    

This is one of my favorite times of the year. It's like Christmas without having to go shopping. One and Done all the way through to the end of March Madness.

I wish all of the Bison, especially the Seniors, GOOD LUCK.

GO BISON!!!
New season, new team, new dream . . .

BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
03-07-19 11:45 AM - Post#279688    

Daily Item story
https://www.dailyitem.com/sports/bucknell-men-s eek...

Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts 619
03-07-19 01:57 PM - Post#279739    

Bison just need to play D like they're capable and refrain from silly fouls. They'll be fine
Bison89
Professor
Posts 5370
Bison89
03-07-19 02:42 PM - Post#279751    

  • Old Bison Said:
Bison just need to play D like they're capable and refrain from silly fouls. They'll be fine



I completely agree about the silly fouls. IMO, that is the key to winning. If Sestina and Toomer can stay on the floor, we should all be happy at the end of the game.
New season, new team, new dream . . .

crd012
Junior
Posts 262
03-07-19 03:38 PM - Post#279764    

Curious to see how we handle Sotos. We lost at Holy Cross because we had 23 turnovers and it was easily his worst game at Bucknell. Additionally the comeback happened against Army with him on the bench. I wonder if we look to limit his minutes.
Bison89
Professor
Posts 5370
Bison89
03-07-19 03:59 PM - Post#279770    

I was just reading the Bucknell Preview. This is something that I, and maybe most of us, forget: "Bucknell captured another regular-season title despite graduation of one of its all-time great senior classes. The trio of point guard Stephen Brown, forward Zach Thomas and center Nana Foulland were all First Team All-Patriot League selections last year, and they accounted for 4,801 career points."

When you put it in perspective, being the regular season co-champs is extremely impressive.
New season, new team, new dream . . .

Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-07-19 04:03 PM - Post#279772    

  • crd012 Said:
Curious to see how we handle Sotos. We lost at Holy Cross because we had 23 turnovers and it was easily his worst game at Bucknell. Additionally the comeback happened against Army with him on the bench. I wonder if we look to limit his minutes.




I think a lot of it depends on how the game develops. His shoulder injury clearly is a big problem and he has shown a lot of guts playing through it. His shooting has been seriously affected, so if the Bison fall behind, we may see a lot of Funk, who is capable of hitting a lot of threes. If the Bison maintain a lead, however, I'd still expect to see Sotos get a lot of minutes. Even with a very bad shoulder, he is still a better ball-handler than the alternatives.

In PL eight PL games prior to the injury, Jimmy had a tremendous 53 assists vs 18 turnovers. Since the injury, he has 40 assists vs 26 turnovers in an identical eight games. Still led the PL in apg and led all starters in assist:turnover ratio. Also since the injury, he is 7-33 on threes. Also doesn't get to the rim as much. That hurts if they are trailing and need firepower.



Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts 619
03-07-19 05:24 PM - Post#279781    

I mean everybody on the fouls. Have to defend w/o fouling. No good being a good defensive team if you're adjustment for being out of position is to bail out and allow 20+ pts from the FT line. We have to be low, locked in and open up on back cuts although they don't teach that anymore. Bruce loses guys back door twice a game sometimes, Funk, Meeks susceptible as well
MrPhillie
Postdoc
Posts 2757
MrPhillie
03-07-19 05:30 PM - Post#279782    

I agree that losing three players with the careers of Brown, Foulland and Thomas is huge. However, my guess is Sestina, Mackenzie, and Toomer, Moore, and Sotos et al like to think of themselves as pretty good players in their own right rather than players that rode the coattails of teammates. Each year is different. I don’t get the feeling this team is just happy to be here at the end, im sure they are disappointed they didn’t win the league outright.

As for Sotos, it is a difficult situation. So much heart to be playing with this injury, but his abilities have obviously taken a hit. Ball-handling not as much but shooting and driving, outside of the big Lafayette game, is poor. Hard to not have him shoot at all. Hopefully we get a lead and don’t have to rely on his shooting.
bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-07-19 08:05 PM - Post#279784    

What’s the over under on how long it takes Cassera to say “The pace favors Holy Cross.”
Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts 619
03-07-19 08:21 PM - Post#279785    

Nate Jones in Butler -4
Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts 619
03-07-19 08:30 PM - Post#279786    

Now -6...do we not understand Nate on Butler is not in our favor
MrPhillie
Postdoc
Posts 2757
MrPhillie
03-07-19 08:36 PM - Post#279787    

Way too many easy baskets for HC. Davis’ defensive strategy is poor.
crd012
Junior
Posts 262
03-07-19 08:39 PM - Post#279788    

Why is Robertson in this game?
Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-07-19 08:52 PM - Post#279789    

  • crd012 Said:
Why is Robertson in this game?




Toomer in foul trouble and Jones having problems with Butler and the Princeton Offense back door cuts.



jkrun80
Postdoc
Posts 3305
03-07-19 08:54 PM - Post#279790    

All of the lower seeds are leading or tied. The weirdness continues.
Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts 619
03-07-19 08:54 PM - Post#279791    

The secret plan of Newman and Robertson leading us to the PL title has really caught HC by surprise. Awful 3 weak FGA’s from Newman...5 bombs from Funk. Robertson with a driving backhanded reverse layup against the best D player in the league and Kimbal and Nate can hardly miss and Avi and Bruce with no FGA’s. Funk lost Copeland on a bd and Bruce lost Grandison and Faw on a bd. HC is gonna zone us now and I hope we’re not deer in the headlights. If we’re gonna lose I want to lose with Nate and Kimbal taking the shots, Bruce on the box and Avi spotting up and driving. I have no idea why Nate is on the bench two minutes into the game with no fouls. Gotta dance with what brung ya, not Funk, Jones, Meeks and Newman
bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-07-19 08:55 PM - Post#279792    

Nobody blows leads better than Army, but fwiw they lead LU by 12 at the half
MrPhillie
Postdoc
Posts 2757
MrPhillie
03-07-19 08:55 PM - Post#279793    

I agree that Ben has passed up several opportunities down low. And I’m not sure anyone is doing a great job on defense.
Bucknellbisonfan21
Masters Student
Posts 548
Bucknellbisonfan21
03-07-19 08:55 PM - Post#279794    

Holy cross was only called for 3 first half fouls
bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-07-19 09:10 PM - Post#279798    

Bison better play a lot smarter
crd012
Junior
Posts 262
03-07-19 09:14 PM - Post#279799    

Also, embarrassing student attendance. It’s the only damn playoff game they would be in school for.
bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-07-19 09:21 PM - Post#279801    

Women’s team is there
crd012
Junior
Posts 262
03-07-19 09:54 PM - Post#279804    

Woooooo! That was a relief
MrPhillie
Postdoc
Posts 2757
MrPhillie
03-07-19 10:09 PM - Post#279805    

You can’t stop John Meeks.
Shot Clock
Masters Student
Posts 883
03-07-19 10:10 PM - Post#279806    

Thank you Kimbal and Meeks.

Great 2nd half...all played well.
B.A. Bucknell University, 1993

Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts 619
03-07-19 10:21 PM - Post#279807    

CRD...tx for raiding again the issue of student attendance. There hasn’t been much raised on that topic. AWFUL!!! Hell, they have a tough day tomorrow...they have to pack to go to FL or Cancun. How many were there 100? 150? About 2-3% student participation. We use to get that for beer H-O-R-S-E behind Fiji from the Fiji line on a Saturday afternoon
Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts 619
03-07-19 10:21 PM - Post#279808    

Raising
Shot Clock
Masters Student
Posts 883
03-07-19 10:25 PM - Post#279809    

Lehigh/Bucknell is the 2p game Sunday.

And yes, lame student attendance. Day before Spring Break. Come on. And for what students there are....put them behind the opponents basket in the 2nd half.
B.A. Bucknell University, 1993

BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
03-07-19 10:48 PM - Post#279811    

  • Shot Clock Said:
Lehigh/Bucknell is the 2p game Sunday.

And yes, lame student attendance. Day before Spring Break. Come on. And for what students there are....put them behind the opponents basket in the 2nd half.


I think their location is stipulated by the league for the tournament game. That said, once there were so many empty seats in the Holy Cross section, it would've been good for some students to redeploy there.

BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
03-07-19 10:50 PM - Post#279812    

  • bison63 Said:
Nobody blows leads better than Army, but fwiw they lead LU by 12 at the half


A prescient post. Final:
Lehigh 75 Army 70
Colgate 81 Boston University 69
Navy 60 American 56

BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
03-07-19 10:52 PM - Post#279815    

During the regular season, Colgate lost at Navy 72-66 and then beat the Mids in Hamilton 93-71.

jkrun80
Postdoc
Posts 3305
03-07-19 11:01 PM - Post#279816    

Great win! On to the next one! I think we’re better off playing Lehigh than Army.
HuskyColonial
PhD Student
Posts 1976
03-07-19 11:07 PM - Post#279817    

Beating any team 3 times in one year is a real task. Losing down the stretch like that really sucks.
raymondbucknell
Junior
Posts 295
03-08-19 01:41 AM - Post#279820    

I’ve been so impressed with Kimbal. Scoring the first 10 points. He really willed them to victory as a great senior leader. But really kudos to everyone. They all did their part. There are no easy wins. Meeks and Funk were a huge boost.
Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-08-19 02:14 AM - Post#279821    

  • crd012 Said:
Also, embarrassing student attendance. It’s the only damn playoff game they would be in school for.




Given that half the school had already left for Spring Break, I thought it was a good turnout. Far more than any PL team (except Bucknell) had had all year. They filled virtually all the seats at one end. PL decided they shouldn't sit at the other end - in case a few 100 HC fans showed up right at game time.



Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-08-19 02:17 AM - Post#279822    

  • Old Bison Said:
CRD...tx for raiding again the issue of student attendance. There hasn’t been much raised on that topic. AWFUL!!! Hell, they have a tough day tomorrow...they have to pack to go to FL or Cancun. How many were there 100? 150?




At least 400 and likely more - which came close to filling all available seats at one end. Which would be at least 20% of the students still on campus by Thursday evening. Many students don't have Friday classes and were long gone by game time.



Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-08-19 02:23 AM - Post#279823    

  • BisonRoadWarrior Said:
  • Shot Clock Said:
Lehigh/Bucknell is the 2p game Sunday.

And yes, lame student attendance. Day before Spring Break. Come on. And for what students there are....put them behind the opponents basket in the 2nd half.


I think their location is stipulated by the league for the tournament game. That said, once there were so many empty seats in the Holy Cross section, it would've been good for some students to redeploy there.




Yes, it would have been a good idea to ignore the PL and take the seats reserved for HC, since it was obvious none would be used. There were students packed in all the way to the back row at the south end. Could have used some of them at the north side.



HuskyColonial
PhD Student
Posts 1976
03-08-19 07:52 AM - Post#279829    

Oh my! Think Cotterel sells out for the Final?
res
Masters Student
Posts 839
03-08-19 09:58 AM - Post#279835    

  • HuskyColonial Said:
Beating any team 3 times in one year is a real task. Losing down the stretch like that really sucks.


Except that it isn't once you've won the 1st two. Assume the teams are evenly matched. At the beginning of the season, assuming you knew in advance that the teams would be meeting a third time, the odds of winning all three games would be 1 in 8, or 12.5% That's equivalent to flipping a coin three times and coming up with 3 tails. Once one team has won the first two games, however, the odds of it winning the third are 1 in 2, or 50%.

But there's more. The teams are probably not evenly matched. It is much more likely than not that the team who won the first two games is the better team. If that is the case, then that team has better than a 50% chance of winning the 3rd game.

I don't know the numbers in college basketball, but the last time I've seen them with respect to the NFL, there had been 20 playoff games since the AFL-NFL merger where one opponent has beaten the other twice in the regular season. The teams that had won the 1st two games won 13 of those games, or 65%. That's nearly two-thirds of the time.

This is called conditional probability and it trumps the conventional wisdom. You can trust me, I'm a Bucknell math major. Admittedly, I've forgotten much of whatever I learned, but I've remembered this.

res
Masters Student
Posts 839
03-08-19 10:00 AM - Post#279836    

I forgot to add, beating Lehigh will be a task, but not because the Bison have already beaten them twice.

crd012
Junior
Posts 262
03-08-19 11:47 AM - Post#279852    

  • Bison137 Said:
  • Old Bison Said:
CRD...tx for raiding again the issue of student attendance. There hasn’t been much raised on that topic. AWFUL!!! Hell, they have a tough day tomorrow...they have to pack to go to FL or Cancun. How many were there 100? 150?




At least 400 and likely more - which came close to filling all available seats at one end. Which would be at least 20% of the students still on campus by Thursday evening. Many students don't have Friday classes and were long gone by game time.



Not trying to get in a larger discussion about the students in general. But I graduated in 2010, and Monday-Wednesday-Friday were the main day of classes. So I wouldn't expect half the campus to be gone already. But regardless there was minimal home court advantage, for a team that has won the regular season title 7 of the last 8 years. That in itself is embarrassing. At this point Sojka should be a full for a playoff game. Last year the Semis and the Finals were intimidating for any team to come into, there was none of that last night.

Also...is the extended week of OOC schedule going to be the norm every year now? Because if that's the case does that mean the school's spring break is going to be during the PL Tourney every year? Because that would suck not only for the home team, but the marketing of the league. Think about the league missing out on students rushing the court for a championship team and it being on ESPN?

Bison89
Professor
Posts 5370
Bison89
03-08-19 12:56 PM - Post#279859    

I was very impressed with Sestina. He played very solid D while staying out of foul trouble.

As for Kimal, WOW! He played like the Senior and First Team All PL player that he is.

Bring on the Engineers!
https://www.dataspace.com/uncategorized/program min...
New season, new team, new dream . . .

res
Masters Student
Posts 839
03-08-19 01:47 PM - Post#279871    

I think the vagaries of the calendar and who hosts will mean going forward the same as we've seen in the past. Sometimes the final will occur during that school's spring break, sometimes not. Certainly it makes it a better spectacle to have students there. But, as to the marketing of the league, I've not sure it makes much of a difference. There aren't a lot of casual viewers tuning in in either event.

btw, the semifinals and final are on CBSSN as they have been for a number of years now, not ESPN.

EDIT: Upon further reflection, it looks like you meant "on ESPN" to mean SportsCenter highlights. Still, I don't think that really moves the needle on league marketing.

Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-08-19 01:59 PM - Post#279875    

  • HuskyColonial Said:
Oh my! Think Cotterel sells out for the Final?




Not one chance in a million. When they hosted Bucknell in 2008 for the semis, students were not on break - unlike now. Yet they only drew an official attendance of 1301 - including a lot of bandwagon-jumping students who were attending the first Colgate basketball game of their lives.

This year, despite having a really good team, Colgate has averaged 503 fans per game - including students for many games.



Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-08-19 02:05 PM - Post#279876    

Interesting stats for the three games where Floyd and Sestina matched up this year:

- Points: Sestina 63, Floyd 57
- FG's: Sestina 23-32 (72%), Floyd 23-39 (59%)
- FT's: Sestina 14-16 (88%), Floyd 11-20 (55%)
- Rebounds: Sestina 31, Floyd 20
- Assists: Floyd 9, Sestina 5
- Turnovers: Sestina 8, Floyd 14
- Blocks: Floyd 6, Sestina 4
- Fouls: Sestina 8, Floyd 11

Advantage Sestina, despite what you might read from some on Crossports.



Bison89
Professor
Posts 5370
Bison89
03-08-19 02:15 PM - Post#279880    

The numbers don't lie!
New season, new team, new dream . . .

res
Masters Student
Posts 839
03-08-19 02:17 PM - Post#279882    

  • Bison137 Said:
Advantage Sestina, despite what you might read from some on Crossports.



Yes, I just read there yesterday that Floyd dominated him.

Bison89
Professor
Posts 5370
Bison89
03-08-19 04:57 PM - Post#279901    

  • res Said:
  • Bison137 Said:
Advantage Sestina, despite what you might read from some on Crossports.



Yes, I just read there yesterday that Floyd dominated him.




I think that we should give Floyd some credit. He did a great job protecting the rim in the first 10 minutes or so. I have to admit that I was a little concerned. IMO, he is a very good player. If he had a jumper or could hit free throws, he could be significantly better.
New season, new team, new dream . . .

Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-08-19 06:00 PM - Post#279923    

  • Bison89 Said:
  • res Said:
  • Bison137 Said:
Advantage Sestina, despite what you might read from some on Crossports.



Yes, I just read there yesterday that Floyd dominated him.




I think that we should give Floyd some credit. He did a great job protecting the rim in the first 10 minutes or so. I have to admit that I was a little concerned. IMO, he is a very good player. If he had a jumper or could hit free throws, he could be significantly better.




If he had a different coach, he would have been a much bigger contributor. He has great ability near the rim, but Carmody did his best to keep him away from the spots where he could do the most damage.



MrPhillie
Postdoc
Posts 2757
MrPhillie
03-08-19 07:48 PM - Post#279987    

To be fair, Sestina himself said that Floyd has been tough on him. But other than Floyd being better at blocking shots and general defense, Nate has the offensive advantage.

As for student attendance, we can discuss all day that Bucknell is better than other PL schools, that doesn’t change the fact that student attendance is poor. To say “at least we’re not as bad as you” isn’t a great argument. The “Sojka Psycho” moniker must be retired.
Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-08-19 08:08 PM - Post#279994    

I wouldn't term it as poor. I would say mediocre. It is poor at almost every northeastern midmajor. I am not sure if there is even one school in the Ivy, AE, MAAC, PL, or NEC with a better student turnout, as mediocre as the Bucknell turnout is by historic standards. I know for sure that there aren't more than a few that do any better.



jkrun80
Postdoc
Posts 3305
03-08-19 08:31 PM - Post#280013    

  • Bison137 Said:
I wouldn't term it as poor. I would say mediocre. It is poor at almost every northeastern midmajor. I am not sure if there is even one school in the Ivy, AE, MAAC, PL, or NEC with a better student turnout, as mediocre as the Bucknell turnout is by historic standards. I know for sure that there aren't more than a few that do any better.


This topic has been discussed a lot here. We need to accept that things have changed. Students have far more ways to spend their time now. I will say again, I am grateful for the students that do come out. It could be far worse.
BUFan
PhD Student
Posts 1936
BUFan
03-08-19 10:29 PM - Post#280060    

On tv the crowd looked good at Colgate last night.

If Colgate hosts the final and has to give 1/3 of tickets to visitors I could easily see the visiting team using the whole allotment considering how small cotterell is.

If the football team heads to Cancun for Spring Break there won’t be much of a home court edge.
Bison89
Professor
Posts 5370
Bison89
03-08-19 10:57 PM - Post#280076    

  • BUFan Said:
On tv the crowd looked good at Colgate last night.

If Colgate hosts the final and has to give 1/3 of tickets to visitors I could easily see the visiting team using the whole allotment considering how small cotterell is.

If the football team heads to Cancun for Spring Break there won’t be much of a home court edge.



I did not realize how small Cotterell is. From Wikipedia:

Cotterell Court is a 1,750-seat multi-purpose arena in Hamilton, New York. It was built in 1959 and is home to the Colgate University Raiders basketball and volleyball teams. It is named for Wesley M. Cotterell '19, a two-time letterwinner in basketball and school trustee.
New season, new team, new dream . . .

JimK_LU72
Freshman
Posts 41
03-08-19 11:54 PM - Post#280093    

Res, I hated every minute of statistics in college. Made my hair hurt. Reading your post my hair hurts again. And may the best team win. See ya'll Sunday at what is clearly the Patriot league's best venue. And Go Navy!
Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-09-19 04:18 AM - Post#280101    

  • BUFan Said:


If the football team heads to Cancun for Spring Break there won’t be much of a home court edge.




I doubt many will be on campus. Their spring practice doesn't begin until Wednesday of the following week.

Btw, the last time Cotterell was filled was during the Adonal Foyle era.



Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-09-19 10:02 PM - Post#280317    

Bison article
Bison Clash With Lehigh in Patriot League Semifinals Sunday at Sojka



bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-10-19 01:49 PM - Post#280444    

Looks like Navy is going to have settle for “nice try.”
HoleinOne
Masters Student
Posts 596
03-10-19 02:28 PM - Post#280467    

Great school but the age and size of the gym an indicator of how the school supports basketball. Smaller than most high schools gyms, it was about half full.
Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts 619
03-10-19 02:39 PM - Post#280472    

And Langell has built a program there. Tourney final last year, tourney final this year and we can only assume tourney final next year. Good forbid they had support and facilities
BUFan
PhD Student
Posts 1936
BUFan
03-10-19 04:13 PM - Post#280496    

Does Bucknell get the usual 1/3 allotment for final? If so, even without students hopefully we can run a few fan buses and use the whole 1/3 considering that can’t be more than about 600 tickets!
Bucknellbisonfan21
Masters Student
Posts 548
Bucknellbisonfan21
03-10-19 05:07 PM - Post#280506    

Newcomb announced that Bucknell is taking 4 fan buses
Bison137
Professor
Posts 16147
Bison137
03-10-19 05:47 PM - Post#280508    

  • HoleinOne Said:
Great school but the age and size of the gym an indicator of how the school supports basketball. Smaller than most high schools gyms, it was about half full.




Official attendance at Cotterell today was 1089. Over the past 15 years, Bucknell's WORST attendance was greater than that. Cotterell's capacity btw is listed as 1782.



bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-10-19 06:17 PM - Post#280511    

4 buses would have to be at least 400 fans, right? Enough to make a lot of noise. Did anybody catch the announcers comment about the “ flat” atmosphere despite a pretty good crowd. Towards the end of the game, when the outcome seemed secure Langel had to exhort the “ crowd” to make some noise.
res
Masters Student
Posts 839
03-10-19 06:38 PM - Post#280517    

  • bison63 Said:
4 buses would have to be at least 400 fans, right? Enough to make a lot of noise. Did anybody catch the announcers comment about the “ flat” atmosphere despite a pretty good crowd. Towards the end of the game, when the outcome seemed secure Langel had to exhort the “ crowd” to make some noise.


Not much more than half of that, '63. The typical charter bus seats more like 60. But there will be more Bison that get there by other means.

Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts 619
03-10-19 06:53 PM - Post#280518    

Lotta rumors around VA basketball circles....Mooney’s out and guess who’s in?
Steve
Freshman
Posts 69
03-10-19 07:03 PM - Post#280520    

Haven't posted since I was a student at Colgate nine years ago. Figure it's as good a time as any to make a comeback, since I have no idea if Colgate will be this good ever again. Sure hope so, it's been a fun year.

For those who don't remember me (probably all of you), I am one of maybe 10 Colgate hoops fans who don't have a friend or family member on the team. I did work for the athletic dept. as a student and wrote articles for men's hoops on the website.

Anyway, Bison137's comments are true. I attended nearly every men's basketball game from 2006-2010 (my tenure at Colgate), and the attendance was always worse than listed. Example: There were 34 people at the Lehigh game in 2007. 34. I know because I was one of them. Granted, it snowed 30 inches that night, but still. Attendance was always terrible and less than listed.

The "Blizzard on the Bison" day was the only time the students really showed any semblance of decent support for hoops during my tenure. I believe we had 500-plus students there, which is impressive considering the team was lucky to get a tenth of that for your typical regular-season game. I was happy with the support then given how conditioned I was to empty stands, but I'm willing to bet 80 percent of the student body was elsewhere on that Sunday afternoon.
Steve
Freshman
Posts 69
03-10-19 07:10 PM - Post#280522    

It filled for women's hoops vs. UConn a few years back, a game that materialized out of thin air so Breanna Stewart could have a "hometown" road matchup before she left school (I believe Colgate stepped in when a game vs. Syracuse fell through).

But men's hoops: Never close since Foyle as you said, and that won't change Wednesday despite this being the biggest basketball game on campus since the big man's era.

And that makes me a bit scared for the PL title game, honestly. The usual edge a home team has in a tournament championship not played at a neutral site will be absent.

As much as it pains me to say, I think Bucknell wins a close one. I have to think on it some more before Wed. But we'll see.
jkrun80
Postdoc
Posts 3305
03-10-19 07:15 PM - Post#280523    

  • Old Bison Said:
Lotta rumors around VA basketball circles....Mooney’s out and guess who’s in?


Sounds like mostly speculation so far. But it would certainly be good fit. Let's hope the rumors are wrong.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/inside...

bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-10-19 07:35 PM - Post#280527    

Two things going on here. Coaching rumor deserves its own thread. As for the Colgate game, seems to me that they have to be the favorite. To wit they have been ranked higher than us most of the season in most of the rankings, though I did not start to believe they might be the better team until we stumbled down the stretch, while they clearly were the PL’s best in the 2nd half of the season.

I have said all year that we are the PL champs until somebody takes it away. While CU may be favored, they will not have an easy time of it. IMO we are the only PL team that could beat them in Hamilton at this specific time.
Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts 619
03-10-19 07:40 PM - Post#280530    

Agreed JK...especially since Mooney is under contract thru ‘22. Think it’s a year premature and ND will have to win again next year or it’ll be a heard sell down there. Mooney’s been there so long because he has a support base
Bison89
Professor
Posts 5370
Bison89
03-10-19 08:01 PM - Post#280535    

Getting back to PL Tournament, I could not be more proud of how the Bison played today. From Seniors down to Freshman, the team played hard. Wednesday is going to be a battle. Sestina, Toomer, and Moore need to stay out of foul trouble. Of course, it has been this way all season


GO BISON!
New season, new team, new dream . . .

bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-10-19 09:05 PM - Post#280555    

  • Steve Said:
Haven't posted since I was a student at Colgate nine years ago. Figure it's as good a time as any to make a comeback, since I have no idea if Colgate will be this good ever again. Sure hope so, it's been a fun year.

For those who don't remember me (probably all of you), I am one of maybe 10 Colgate hoops fans who don't have a friend or family member on the team. I did work for the athletic dept. as a student and wrote articles for men's hoops on the website.

Anyway, Bison137's comments are true. I attended nearly every men's basketball game from 2006-2010 (my tenure at Colgate), and the attendance was always worse than listed. Example: There were 34 people at the Lehigh game in 2007. 34. I know because I was one of them. Granted, it snowed 30 inches that night, but still. Attendance was always terrible and less than listed.

The "Blizzard on the Bison" day was the only time the students really showed any semblance of decent support for hoops during my tenure. I believe we had 500-plus students there, which is impressive considering the team was lucky to get a tenth of that for your typical regular-season game. I was happy with the support then given how conditioned I was to empty stands, but I'm willing to bet 80 percent of the student body was elsewhere on that Sunday afternoon.


I think I remember you Steve. Did you used to post on that old Voy board? Iirc, there were few if any other posters there. Welcome to our world, and congratulations on finally having a team worth cheering for.

Steve
Freshman
Posts 69
03-10-19 09:14 PM - Post#280559    

Yes, I did. Basketball posts were (and are) too few and far between on the old and new boards. Better to chat PL hoops here. Long-time reader, just never posted. Now I have a reason to.

If anyone wants any Colgate takes from a fan before the big game, let me know and I'll be happy to answer.

And thank you for the welcome. Hopefully Colgate stays in the first division for a bit.
NavyVoice
Freshman
Posts 38
03-11-19 08:26 AM - Post#280594    

Why would they not? They have a BIG Ten Transfer who is POY, Rayman is solid, a decent player from Bowling Green sitting out... A soph PG, A soph bench piece who is a perfect role player. They have played the market perfectly. Question is, when does someone come after Matt?
NavyVoice
Freshman
Posts 38
03-11-19 08:35 AM - Post#280597    

Yesterday was as good a crowd I have ever seen in the airplane hanger in Hamilton. If you are driving up, obey the speed limit and brace for pot holes through the villages!!!

Great game coming up..
bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-11-19 09:12 AM - Post#280606    

Hey voice, thought for a minute that your Mids might pull it off. Just about the time it looked like CU might choke it away, they stiffened instead. That’s the difference in them from last year, they are dealing with end game situations now.
NavyVoice
Freshman
Posts 38
03-11-19 10:28 AM - Post#280614    

we cut it to 61-59, but Ferguson who was huge off the bench hit a huge three... they just have so many weapons and Ivanauskas is a Big Ten player..
Steve
Freshman
Posts 69
03-11-19 11:04 AM - Post#280616    

I think you mentioned the main reason -- what if Langel leaves?

I'm also a jaded Colgate sports fan. I've seen too many heartbreaking losses by this team over the years, to the point where they seem cursed, hahaha. I expect the worst and hope for the best.
NavyVoice
Freshman
Posts 38
03-11-19 11:22 AM - Post#280618    

understandable Steve! This team just has so many weapons, we got the game as close to our pace as we could, and Ferguson ends up killing us.. just so many weapons. Could be a very high octane game Wednesday.. two best squads..
Maryland Bison
Freshman
Posts 57
03-11-19 11:31 AM - Post#280621    

Every one of the great Bucknell classes/talent groupings has played in exactly two NCAA tournaments. Sestina, Mackenzie, and Toomer now have a chance to play in a third (plus other guys who were on the 2017 and 2018 teams, but didn't actually play in the tournament).
Bison54
PhD Student
Posts 1800
Bison54
03-11-19 12:10 PM - Post#280624    

Avi Toomer and Senior Nate Jones played in both the 2017 and 2018 NCAA games; (Robertson, Moore and Newman played in one of them).

Nate Jones has been a positive for the team in terms of leadership; while he doesn't get the minutes the others get, he plays with passion and has made contributions.

bison63
Postdoc
Posts 3857
03-11-19 12:11 PM - Post#280625    

  • Steve Said:
I think you mentioned the main reason -- what if Langel leaves?

I'm also a jaded Colgate sports fan. I've seen too many heartbreaking losses by this team over the years, to the point where they seem cursed, hahaha. I expect the worst and hope for the best.


The curse was named Emmet Davis. (The famous inbounds play etc.)
Bison89
Professor
Posts 5370
Bison89
03-11-19 12:54 PM - Post#280630    

  • Bison54 Said:
Nate Jones has been a positive for the team in terms of leadership; while he doesn't get the minutes the others get, he plays with passion and has made contributions.



I have noticed that Coach Davis must give Nate Jones, John Meeks, and Andrew Funk the green light to fire away from 3-point-land. They do not hesitate when they come in off the bench. It helps to make this team exciting to watch.
New season, new team, new dream . . .




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