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| Username | Post: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday | |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-13-19 02:01 PM - Post#281037
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/game?g... |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-13-19 02:04 PM - Post#281038
Yale 86%: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/game?g... |
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W. PhD Student Posts 1171 |
03-13-19 02:06 PM - Post#281039
How do these translate to point spreads? |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-13-19 02:08 PM - Post#281040
2...and look at this analysis https://www.legitgamblingsites.com/blog/ivy-league... |
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W. PhD Student Posts 1171 |
03-13-19 02:11 PM - Post#281042
And Yale by...8 or so? |
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Stuart Suss PhD Student Posts 1439 |
03-13-19 02:19 PM - Post#281047
The gambler is unaware that Michael Wang will be unavailable for the tournament. Ever since the U.S. Supreme Court made it easier for states to legalize betting on college sports, I have asked when college coaches from Nick Saban to Tommy Amaker will have the same obligations as their professional colleagues to publicly release honest injury information. |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8254 
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03-13-19 02:23 PM - Post#281048
Read it carefully. he thinks Yale beat Nova and is a premier defensive team. Ha! |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8254
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03-13-19 02:27 PM - Post#281049
How do these translate to point spreads? I think Penn opens -1 and Yale opens -8 or 9 |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-13-19 03:05 PM - Post#281062
My guess would be that the Harvard-Penn line might skew a bit toward Harvard (maybe to a PK open) because in these types of situations, they try to move off the true line to make up for the fact that the general betting public might see "better seed an underdog to worse seed" and money might come in unevenly at true odds. And while Vegas usually tries to give the fair line because that's what's most likely to make the money fall evenly (what they want), in situations where they know things will be perceived a certain way, they shade that way to try to get that money to fall evenly. But Penn is, indeed, a -1.5 or so favorite here. |
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W. PhD Student Posts 1171 |
03-13-19 03:28 PM - Post#281070
My guess would be that the Harvard-Penn line might skew a bit toward Harvard (maybe to a PK open) because in these types of situations, they try to move off the true line to make up for the fact that the general betting public might see "better seed an underdog to worse seed" and money might come in unevenly at true odds. And while Vegas usually tries to give the fair line because that's what's most likely to make the money fall evenly (what they want), in situations where they know things will be perceived a certain way, they shade that way to try to get that money to fall evenly. But Penn is, indeed, a -1.5 or so favorite here. So if I understand you correctly, Penn "should" be more of a -2.5 point favorite? |
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Silver Maple Postdoc Posts 3777 |
03-13-19 03:36 PM - Post#281076
Maybe I'm just a sh1tty fan, but I simply cannot find it within myself to feel any sense of confidence about this game. It really comes down to whether the 3s are falling, and that's such a random thing. When Penn is hitting from the perimeter, they can beat any team in the conference by 20+. If not, every game becomes a toss up at best. I'm going to go out in my back yard on Saturday morning and sacrifice a goat to the basketball gods. We'll see if that helps. |
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10Q Professor Posts 23395 |
03-13-19 03:37 PM - Post#281077
I'm going to go to shul and daven extra hard. That usually helps. I think sacrificing a goat is probably a bad idea. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-13-19 03:45 PM - Post#281079
You hit on the key point, when we shoot well from 3, we will blow out anyone in the league. When we don't, we'll be competitive because of our defense, but we can lose to anyone. Over the last 5 games, 4 of which were wins, we were from 3 point range: Cornell: 11-29 (W: 68-50) Harvard: 7-26 (L: 59-53) Dartmouth: 17-30 (W: 65-51) Yale: 19-34 (W: 77-66) Brown: 7-31 (W: 58-51) It is remarkable how consistent is the number of 3s we take. And in the Harvard game, we had the much better open 3s but Harvard hit killers under pressure and we missed the open ones. It's good to play this game on a neutral court. We certainly can win----eat that goat curry for me. |
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SteveChop PhD Student Posts 1154 |
03-13-19 03:46 PM - Post#281081
I think that offering a sacrifice may be appropriate as this week's parasha is all about sacrifices. You could make the mincha sacrifice - cheaper, more timely with game at 12:30, and done by a nefesh (soul) rather than an adam (person) |
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Silver Maple Postdoc Posts 3777 |
03-13-19 03:50 PM - Post#281085
I'm going to go to shul and daven extra hard. That usually helps. I think sacrificing a goat is probably a bad idea. Sorry. I'm afraid it's curtains for Clover. 38 wants rogan josh. |
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weinhauers_ghost Postdoc Posts 2139 |
03-13-19 03:54 PM - Post#281091
I'm going to go to shul and daven extra hard. That usually helps. I think sacrificing a goat is probably a bad idea. ::cancels goat order:: |
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10Q Professor Posts 23395 |
03-13-19 04:02 PM - Post#281094
But remember: The beis hamikdash is no longer kayam. Since the churban, we may no longer offer karbonos on bamos. |
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Old Bear Postdoc Posts 3998 |
03-13-19 04:04 PM - Post#281096
I may barbecue a leg of lamb in the back yard after I watch the game on TV. I can afford to buy P'38's ticket prices. |
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TheLine Professor Posts 5597 |
03-13-19 04:19 PM - Post#281098
Penn is paper thin right now. Things have to break extremely well to beat Harvard. If Harvard wins then I promise not to whine that the better team lost due to injuries. |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8254
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03-13-19 04:21 PM - Post#281099
My guess would be that the Harvard-Penn line might skew a bit toward Harvard (maybe to a PK open) because in these types of situations, they try to move off the true line to make up for the fact that the general betting public might see "better seed an underdog to worse seed" and money might come in unevenly at true odds. And while Vegas usually tries to give the fair line because that's what's most likely to make the money fall evenly (what they want), in situations where they know things will be perceived a certain way, they shade that way to try to get that money to fall evenly. But Penn is, indeed, a -1.5 or so favorite here. So if I understand you correctly, Penn "should" be more of a -2.5 point favorite? I think once the public sees a lower seed that already has two losses to the higher seed open as a favorite, you will see the line go to PK, at least for a while. I would wait for that before taking them. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-13-19 04:32 PM - Post#281100
No - more that I see Penn as like a "true" 1.5-pt favorite, but that the line might open as a pick for the reasons I mentioned. I think Penn -2.5 would be aggressive toward Penn. ** Insert comment about who knows who will play or be 100% so it's tough to set accurate lines and shouldn't that be outlawed ** - See, Stu, I mentioned it! |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21204 |
03-13-19 04:51 PM - Post#281105
Some of us in '08 offered karbonos on bamos for Obama. Score one for old school prayer.
But remember: The beis hamikdash is no longer kayam. Since the churban, we may no longer offer karbonos on bamos. |
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10Q Professor Posts 23395 |
03-13-19 05:17 PM - Post#281116
I offered a korban todah when he departed |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21204 |
03-13-19 05:23 PM - Post#281117
I offered a korban todah when he departed The new leader broke off and set up an alternate location for offerings in 87665 Mar-a-Lago. Needless to say, God rejected this Northern Kingdom breakaway shul and its offerings. Its charitable organization was shut down early in its administration. |
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LyleGold PhD Student Posts 1712 |
03-13-19 07:00 PM - Post#281142
I offered a korban todah when he departed I hope it was paired with multiple nesachim - and not just poured over the mizbeach! I suspect mine would have been quite different than yours - gratitude rather than thank goodness he's gone. |
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Old Bear Postdoc Posts 3998 |
03-13-19 07:14 PM - Post#281146
Are are any other yiddish BB Boards? |
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LyleGold PhD Student Posts 1712 |
03-13-19 07:16 PM - Post#281147
To be technical, it's Hebrew, but to answer your question - not one that includes Penn basketball. For historical perspective, in the Golden Age of Quaker hoops, the majority of Penn fans were Jewish and were also students. Now the majority of Penn fans are cranky old Jews. We save the Yiddish for cursing out the opposition and each other. |
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10Q Professor Posts 23395 |
03-13-19 07:42 PM - Post#281149
Feh. Gornisht |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8254
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03-13-19 08:15 PM - Post#281161
Thankfully I can still follow much of it without resorting to Google translate as a result of my NYC childhood. Side note: my recently discovered minority Jewish DNA courtesy of ancestry.com reaffirms (and perhaps explains) my status as an old-school Penn hoops fan, even if it is on my father’s side. |
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LyleGold PhD Student Posts 1712 |
03-13-19 08:30 PM - Post#281165
Thankfully I can still follow much of it without resorting to Google translate as a result of my NYC childhood. Side note: my recently discovered minority Jewish DNA courtesy of ancestry.com reaffirms (and perhaps explains) my status as an old-school Penn hoops fan, even if it is on my father’s side. I was pretty surprised to learn a couple years ago that you were, in fact, a goy. I guess that explains why you never really fly off the handle or go on tirades just to hear yourself talk. So you spit in the cup and at least discovered a MOTI in the woodpile? I guess that's some consolation. |
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OldBig5 Masters Student Posts 639 |
03-13-19 09:27 PM - Post#281190
I'm a quarter jewish on my mother's side. I remember when grandma used to come and babysit us she would talk with her sisters in english with yiddish interspersed. For the curse words. Not sure if I'm spelling it right but think it was coccy mun? which meant s*** on him/her or something like that? Wish i could remember some more. Out of five boys my brother who went to Penn was the only one who looked jewish out of the bunch. Dark curly hair. Maybe he was profiled?  So count me in as cranky old jew/gentile quaker fan. |
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Mike Porter Postdoc Posts 3618 
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03-13-19 11:57 PM - Post#281227
I have no idea what you guys are talking about, but Let’s Go Quakers! |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21204 |
03-14-19 12:15 AM - Post#281229
I have no idea what you guys are talking about, but Let’s Go Quakers! If you get really bored one day, sit down and read the Book of Leviticus. Everything you ever wanted to know about sacrifices, and then some. |
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Penndemonium PhD Student Posts 1900 |
03-14-19 12:22 AM - Post#281232
Wait. We are a favorite? And Harvard beat us twice during the season? Did something happen? It's not because of Towns, is it? |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-14-19 07:10 AM - Post#281244
No, because he has not played this year, so had nothing to do with the 2 Harvard wins. I think Penn should have won both of those games-- a giveaway certain win in the first game and we outplayed them for much of the 2nd but simply could not hit the open 3. However, I doubt the linesmakers know that---but the seasonal stats have us looking slightly better. |
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Charlie Fog Masters Student Posts 587 |
03-14-19 07:22 AM - Post#281245
I have no idea what you guys are talking about, but Let’s Go Quakers! |
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Penndemonium PhD Student Posts 1900 |
03-14-19 10:17 AM - Post#281262
No, because he has not played this year, so had nothing to do with the 2 Harvard wins. I think Penn should have won both of those games-- a giveaway certain win in the first game and we outplayed them for much of the 2nd but simply could not hit the open 3. However, I doubt the linesmakers know that---but the seasonal stats have us looking slightly better. I gathered that we gave them a good run for the money in both games, but I still don't understand why we would actually be favored. Hope the odds are right! |
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Silver Maple Postdoc Posts 3777 |
03-14-19 10:26 AM - Post#281266
Remember-- the odds are a reflection on how the public will bet, not on what the actual outcome will be. |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8254
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03-14-19 11:34 AM - Post#281277
Opening odds are also based in part on data like KenPom. That has Penn up by .6 - round it up. For all means and purposes, this should be even. |
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Penndemonium PhD Student Posts 1900 |
03-14-19 12:12 PM - Post#281280
Got it. I didn't realize that KenPom also favored us. It is true that the odds reflects betting, but these days there seems to be a fair amount of statistical betters that should close the gap in betting house odds vs. consensus probabilities of winning. |
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10Q Professor Posts 23395 |
03-14-19 12:17 PM - Post#281281
And once again we find ourselves in the position of rooting for Princeton. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-14-19 12:24 PM - Post#281284
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. We'll be happy to play either Yale or Princeton on Sunday. |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8254
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03-14-19 12:27 PM - Post#281286
Q is right though. I'd want them even if they were better. |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8254
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03-14-19 12:28 PM - Post#281287
Got it. I didn't realize that KenPom also favored us. It is true that the odds reflects betting, but these days there seems to be a fair amount of statistical betters that should close the gap in betting house odds vs. consensus probabilities of winning. It is safe to assume the line will move a bit after it is posted. |
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Mike Porter Postdoc Posts 3618
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03-14-19 01:47 PM - Post#281297
Line or not, I see us as the underdog. We lost to them 2X, they were co-champions. I prefer the underdog role for this team anyway, and feel we play that role best. Of course if we play at peak capability, we can absolutely beat them, but to have a chance we will need to hit a reasonable % of 3's. We shot 27% and 25% in our two losses. If we shoot less than 30% again, I don't see us winning. Let's Go Quakers! |
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TheLine Professor Posts 5597 |
03-14-19 03:22 PM - Post#281309
How can we not be the underdog? The team is banged up. It isn't the same team that took down Nova earlier. That said, it's still a winnable game. |
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10Q Professor Posts 23395 |
03-14-19 03:26 PM - Post#281311
Is anyone other than Wang banged up? We've found some answers with the older players. That's all I can figure. |
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Quakers03 Professor Posts 12533 |
03-14-19 03:34 PM - Post#281316
Bryce hasn't been the same since he was wrestled to the ground at Harvard. It really is remarkable to look at from where we got the scoring early in the year vs now. It's all in the seniors hands at this point...I'd love to see a Bryce resurgence and think we could use it, but I'm not getting my hopes up. |
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10Q Professor Posts 23395 |
03-14-19 03:48 PM - Post#281321
I like having seniors at the fore in the post-season. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-14-19 03:51 PM - Post#281322
There is something to be said for playing guys who are in their last game if they lose. There is a level of desperation in it which I like, especially given the experience factor. These guys have not been making many mistakes since Steve went All-Dunphy in the last 3 games, winning the turnover battle each time. That was something that had been killing us previously. These guys know how to play D also. The 3 point shooting may be spotty, but with low turnovers and good D, we have a puncher's chance even if we don't shoot well. |
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TheLine Professor Posts 5597 |
03-14-19 05:11 PM - Post#281338
Seniors are wonderful and all, but would love to have a healthy Mike and Bryce. I'd assume Max is in his usual banged up state but will leave nothing in the tank. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-14-19 05:41 PM - Post#281356
Had they continued the out of conference performance in the Ivy season, of course. But they did not and are banged up. |
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13otto Masters Student Posts 779 
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03-14-19 06:14 PM - Post#281362
There is something to be said for playing guys who are in their last game if they lose. There is a level of desperation in it which I like, especially given the experience factor. Do you really think this would be the last game for the seniors if they lose? I realize they wouldn't get an NIT bid, but there are a couple other tournaments.
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13otto Masters Student Posts 779
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03-14-19 06:19 PM - Post#281363
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. We'll be happy to play either Yale or Princeton on Sunday. Agreed. I'll be happy to play either on Sunday. However, a win over Harvard and I'm rooting for Princeton over Yale in game two.
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Quakers03 Professor Posts 12533 |
03-16-19 11:11 AM - Post#281610
Lots of rowdy Harvard fans at my breakfast spot. Would love to see one penn fan. No board activity st all? Let’s go! |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8254
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03-16-19 11:46 AM - Post#281615
No worries - there will be a game thread with lots of play by play chatter and the occasional insight ;-) I won't watch with a device in my hand because I'm sure there will be at least one moment where I jump out of my chair which would send the device flying. Keep up the reports from the pre-game scene though. Want to see those. |
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Quakers03 Professor Posts 12533 |
03-16-19 12:24 PM - Post#281618
It’s the bad ref again. I can’t believe it.... |
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Quakers03 Professor Posts 12533 |
03-16-19 12:38 PM - Post#281620
Between Max and our favorite ref we should be up ten. Killer. |
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