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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-02-20 12:27 PM - Post#302677
For Saturday's game vs Yale to decide the Ivy League Regular Season Title, Harvard needs to get by Brown on Friday. Although Dartmouth is playing well, Yale will still be expected to prevail in Hanover, nothwistanding the ghosts of Gabas Maldunas and Justin Sears (2015). Based on KenPom, Harvard could be favored by 15 points. That is unrealistic. This Harvard team, especially absent Christian Juzang, doesn't beat anyone by that margin and, even when playing well in spurts, hasn't been able to contribute a solid 40 minute effort. Seems like we get a good 20 to 25 minutes, with a 15-20 minute scrum. By the way, this is where missing your top 2 point guards is most evident. Brown did beat Harvard in Providence, but that result was heavily influenced by the refereeing. I'm not griping about particular calls, but rather the fact that 49 fouls were called. Harvard's 'Bully Ball' was neutralized, although Brown does have the size to compete better than most in this league (Gainey, Choh, Howard & DeWolf). Brown is possibly among league's worst offensive teams - at 63.8ppg in conference, ahead of only Princeton (62.8) and Dartmouth (59.1). Brown is the league's worst shooting team at 38% (Harvard is 44.9%) and second worst three point shooting team at 26.5%. Brown's defense also ranks in the bottom half of the league as well in virtually every category, with the exception of blocking shots (see Gainey) and rebounding (3rd in margin behind Yale and Harvard). The area where Brown excels is FT shooting. Brown leads the league at 76.1%, while Harvard is last in the league at 65.1. Harvard was expected to be better, but replacing attempts Towns and Aiken (roughly 85% ) with Ledlum, Kirkwood and Forbes (61%) is problematic, and the loss of Christian Juzang (78.4%) is likely only to make things worse. So, the reason why I point to the refereeing in the game at Pizzitola is that the high rate of foul calls catered to Brown's strength. The teams were virtually even in all statistical catergories (rbs, TO, assists, steals, 3 pt shooting, fg shooting). The difference was that Brown was 28-32 on FT's compared to Harvard's 12-18. That's a 16 point differential that Harvard actually overcame, until Brown's Choh hit a last second shot and, yes, free throw, for a 1 point home victory. The fouls compounded Harvard's woes as Chris Lewis was limited in minutes, playing only 25 minutes and finishing with 4 fouls. If you look at each team's other 11 conference games, Brown gets to the line 18.7 times per game and the Crimson 17.9. Thus, applying the FT shooting prowess of each team against virtually identical competition, Brown can be expected to outscore the Crimson by a point or two at the line, not 16 points! So, my expectations for Friday rely heavily on whether the refs let them play, or whether we get that god-awful group that called 49 fouls on a dreary night in Providence. |
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digamma Masters Student Posts 468 |
03-02-20 12:52 PM - Post#302681
I know this is going to raise your ire, but this season I really don't care about the regular season title. I'd trot out Sakota, Brayboy, O'Neill, Catchings and (in a nod to an old mrjames joke) Drew Faust for both games this weekend. No more injuries. I also personally don't want to play against Brodeur again (unless it's in the Ivy final). |
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digamma Masters Student Posts 468 |
03-02-20 12:57 PM - Post#302682
I know Tommy won't do that, btw, and I will cheer just as hard Friday and Saturday night. Just want to get back to the tournament for this class. |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
03-02-20 01:03 PM - Post#302683
It still hurts to hear G-s M-s mentioned. What an unfortunate way to blow a season. Relatedly, if I ever meet Patrick Steeves, I'm going to buy him a beer. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-02-20 02:40 PM - Post#302703
Doesn't raise my ire at all. The League has made the coming final weekend close to meaningless in favor of bringing Yale back to Lavietes the following weekend, along with the P's or maybe Princeton and Brown. Like to think that Crimson can play hard this weekend and do so again for the Tournament. Unfortunately, at Yale, being 6-0 vs the participants didn't matter and the year before we were setting up for the finish at Penn when Seth went down with about 8 minutes left. Based on that - as well as 6-8 Penn taking 14-0 Princeton down to the wire in 2017 - regular season performance isn't really very relevant any more. The only reasons to play hard are (a) if you want to claim the regular season championship and it's meaningless top seed, and (b) you want to assure yourselves of at least an invitation to the NIT. With regards to the latter, I assume Yale would garner an invite, not sure about Harvard. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-02-20 03:53 PM - Post#302723
The ironic thing is that Harvard is on the NIT bubble right now, but the win that would get it into firmer status is also the win that would (more than likely) give it the auto-NIT berth. So, it doesn't really seem to have a path to the NIT without securing the NIT auto berth. People mock the NIT, but after the auto-bids are put in the field, there are really only ~20 spots left, which means you have to be darn close to the NCAA bubble to get an at large into the NIT. To be honest, I think Harvard values winning the league title right up there with getting the bid (the NIT auto-berth doesn't seem to be much of a motivator). So, I think they'll be going all out to win a title this weekend, potential injuries be damned. |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
03-02-20 04:19 PM - Post#302725
They absolutely should do their best. Rings are forever, even if they aren't accompanied by an NCAA bid. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-02-20 04:33 PM - Post#302728
So, here's the dilemma. Assume Saturday determines the title (even via tie breaker). It's Senior Day. Does Amaker start Henry Welsh with Bassey and Baker? Can't have Chris Lewis start as well as that would be 3 bigs clogging the lane and watching Swain and Monroe shoot 3's. |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
03-02-20 04:45 PM - Post#302730
The way Yale has sometimes handled this is that in the case where there are more seniors than can feasibly start, Coach Jones might sit the senior at the position at issue who usually starts. Another solution is to start the all-senior weird lineup, then give a foul on Yale's first possession in order to sub in some more-logical personnel, probably choosing to sit the senior who most-frequently starts. At the 16-minute mark, you can bring in your regulars. |
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digamma Masters Student Posts 468 |
03-02-20 04:59 PM - Post#302732
We're talking about playing for a minute. Henry, Big Game Bob, Lewis, Bassey and if he can go Juzang. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-02-20 06:16 PM - Post#302749
Even if Juzang could go this weekend, why would he? Take a chance on reinjuring himself and missing the tournament? No way. This weekend is nice, but doesn't ultimately count for much. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-02-20 06:25 PM - Post#302757
Don't you want to be able to say that you earned your home court advantage? |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-02-20 06:27 PM - Post#302758
Why? There's no precedent for that. #2 seed + HCA = NCAA Bid! |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-02-20 06:48 PM - Post#302763
That's based on a tie. You have to at least tie to get there. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-02-20 07:17 PM - Post#302768
True enough |
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Noah Friedman Freshman Posts 34 |
03-02-20 10:44 PM - Post#302782
What does everybody think? What is the best team you could ever see Harvard hosting? Do you think a power 5 conference team would ever go to play at Harvard? |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-02-20 11:14 PM - Post#302787
Had they built the 5000 seat arena they said they would build and had the money to build, yes. But in an 1800 seat gym? No |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-03-20 08:24 AM - Post#302793
Under Amaker, Harvard has hosted Michigan, Colorado and BC and won all three of those games pretty convincingly. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-03-20 08:40 AM - Post#302794
Of course, the LAST of those 3 was on 1/1/14 in a 2 for 1 series against a local school, BC. You have to go back to 2010 against Colorado and before that against Michigan, Amaker's old school. Frankly, I thought it was the inability to get good out of conference teams at home that was one of the reasons to build the much bigger arena. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-03-20 10:19 AM - Post#302803
A potential new arena is still on the table and had absolutely nothing to do with basketball concerns. Harvard wanted the space near the river that Lavietes currently occupies for dorms and other University buildings. So, it needed to move the current basketball gym and build a new one. I also believe the latest plans before the project was postponed had the arena somewhere in the 3s not 5K. |
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Noah Friedman Freshman Posts 34 |
03-03-20 04:56 PM - Post#302873
Why is Harvard honoring their seniors instead of on Saturday? |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
03-03-20 05:31 PM - Post#302879
Harvard and Yale both seem to prefer not to make the H-Y game senior night for whatever reason. The last time Yale's last home game was the Harvard game, they did the same thing. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-03-20 08:13 PM - Post#302895
That’s a surprise. I remember the seniors shutting out Brown something like 8-0 for the first 4 minutes on a Senior Day. Matt Frashilla (now a coach at Nova, I think) hit nothing but net on a 3. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-04-20 10:11 AM - Post#302944
Henry Zhu’s Crimson article last night seems to assume that Christian Juzang has played his last game for Harvard. Next Man Up! |
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84grad Junior Posts 277 |
03-05-20 11:08 AM - Post#303051
Going to be a fun weekend. Senior Night on Friday will celebrate a terrific, albeit injury-riddled, Senior Class. 2 shared titles and 1 more there for the taking for the few Seniors remaining on the court. Amazing to go into the last weekend of the 14 game tournament with brand new question marks, but we are where we are. Brown's already beaten us at their place last year and this year, but still hoping that Sakota and Tretout can get some game time on Friday which would help on Saturday vs. the team whose name must not be mentioned. Practices must have been interesting this week as the coaches try to cobble together something approaching ball handling, especially vs. the sure to be deployed full court press. Rio, Justin and Noah all have some limitations in that area, but hoping for the best from 3 very talented players. Assuming the team from New Haven wins on Friday (and surely there's no way they would EVER lose on the final weekend at Dartmouth) -- and we can get by Brown on Friday (certainly a real test) -- it would set up a fantastic finish to the season on Saturday. Of course, it would be even better if it was a game where one team could win the title outright (or either if the "other guys" lose on Friday while the good guys win) or Harvard could be in a position to force a one game playoff at The Cathedral (it wouldn't get any better than that -- can't even imagine what that would be like (or can I?)). Hope Brown doesn't end the excitement on Friday. And I'll say it now in advance. I for one would rather that Harvard didn't have the tournament net to save them if they lose this weekend. And while I'd love for them to be in March Madness, my absolute first choice would be to win the regular season title. Still hoping for both, but this weekend (not Ivy Madness) will determine who gets the banner(s) as 2020 Ivy Champs. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-05-20 11:14 AM - Post#303052
Assuming for the sake of argument that Harvard wins out and Yale beats Dartmouth, who has the tiebreaker for the first seed? Ahhh, forgot about that 1 point win at Yale. So Harvard will have the first seed |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-05-20 11:29 AM - Post#303054
Yeah, Harvard has the tiebreaker over Yale in all scenarios, since it requires beating Yale again for them to end up tied. Friday night only matters for Yale if Harvard loses (it could clinch the 1-seed there). But a win on Saturday for Yale makes Friday's result irrelevant. |
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rbg Postdoc Posts 3054 |
03-05-20 12:11 PM - Post#303057
In the case of co-champs, am I correct that the #1 seed is the only team eligible to get the NIT automatic bid? |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-05-20 12:31 PM - Post#303059
I know it won't happen, but if Yale (2 losses), Harvard (lose to Brown, beat Yale) and Princeton (sweep) tie, I assume Harvard wins the 3 way tiebreak, or does it? Harvard and Yale would be 3-1 vs the others, while Princeton would be 1-3. Harvard would have swept Yale, but would that matter? If it doesn't, then record vs: Team #4 (Penn?): Harvard (1-1), Yale (1-1) Team #5 (Brown?): Harvard (0-2 under scenario), Yale (2-0) So, my question become whether 3 way tie where two teams share best record vs those tied reverts to (1) head to head record, or (2) record vs next best team(s) |
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digamma Masters Student Posts 468 |
03-05-20 01:23 PM - Post#303064
The tiebreaker rules are a little ambiguous on this point (they talk about determining a higher seed rather than eliminating a lower seed from consideration), but my understanding is that Princeton would be eliminated and then you would look to the two-way tie break between Harvard and Yale. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-05-20 02:03 PM - Post#303066
That's correct. That's why any breaker would go to Harvard. It's more likely than not that a tiebreaker will not be needed, though the Crimson still has a good shot. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-05-20 02:18 PM - Post#303068
Isn't a tie like kissing your sister school? |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-06-20 10:02 AM - Post#303202
Two Harvard Crimson articles yesterday are revealing. The first, detailing the games this upcoming weekend, confirms that Christian Juzang will not play this weekend, and has Tommy talking about the great opportunity to involve the bench. The second, more of a weather vane, spotlights Idan Tretout and Chris Ledlum. Specifically, that article recounts how Tretout had to fight for minutes in practice behind Aiken, Juzang and Haskett, but now is a key part of this weekend and the Tournament. My speculation regarding Ledlum being highlighted on the eve of the end of the season is that we will see more of Bassey in the backcourt, opening up more minutes for Ledlum at the small forward position. Reading between the lines of the Crimson has proved prophetic all season, for example when Juzang and Haskett were featured while we were still wondering when Bryce would be returning. There is another article about Junior Reed Farley finally being healthy and intending to seek graduate transfer status after next year, but that article probably doesn't mean much in terms of this season because it's from the San Diego Union-Tribune. For some reason, there isn't any recent press on Lucas Sakota. Sakota, a three-point weapon and tallish guard at 6'5", appears to have dropped below Tretout on the depth chart despite have played in the rotation during OOC. |
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Chip Bayers Professor Posts 7001 
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03-06-20 08:53 PM - Post#303286
Man that was some bad play to end the first half. |
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Old Bear Postdoc Posts 3998 |
03-06-20 08:55 PM - Post#303287
H has size and talent,B has guts. |
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digamma Masters Student Posts 468 |
03-06-20 09:20 PM - Post#303297
We have no point guard and that's a great equalizer right now. Also Harvard has a ton of guts, thanks. |
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digamma Masters Student Posts 468 |
03-06-20 09:56 PM - Post#303316
Congrats on the win, but please take the weak guts insinuation elsewhere. |
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Old Bear Postdoc Posts 3998 |
03-06-20 09:58 PM - Post#303317
Sorry, I didn’t mean H had guts, I think B wanted (and needed it ) more. |
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Noah Friedman Freshman Posts 34 |
03-06-20 11:18 PM - Post#303329
So any significance to tommrows game? Also what was aikien official injury? They just said ankle. I really wish he could okay any possible chance he gets back next week? |
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Tiger69 Postdoc Posts 2816 |
03-06-20 11:40 PM - Post#303333
Well, what might have been an interesting hy matchup now means next to nothing thanks to h’s underachievers who play only when they feel like it. I don’t mean to take anything away from Brown, a good counterpoint to the Cantabs, that plays tough even when it has a talent deficit. Harvard will probably play tough tomorrow against the Elis in a game that now means nothing and again next week against P when they get IMHO an undeserved opportunity to steal the NCAA bid from Yale, this year’s clear Ivy Champ.🅠|
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Noah Friedman Freshman Posts 34 |
03-06-20 11:44 PM - Post#303335
Any chance aikien is back next week or ncaa tournament? |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-07-20 01:35 AM - Post#303339
Nope. This is a new team, without a point guard. Sometimes ugly. Ball movement is now a learning process all over again. Tretout played 23 minutes at PG, running the offense. He’s a work in progress, but it’s not his fault. Entering the season, I believe he was behind Aiken, Juzang, Haskett, Freedman and Sakota. Tough to win with only 1 guard on the floor, and a sixth string PG at that. Again, I think Tretout will be useful in the future, but there’s a way to go. Seeing Towns, Aiken and Juzang tonight - what a shame. |
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Noah Friedman Freshman Posts 34 |
03-07-20 01:57 AM - Post#303340
What has happened to sakota? Also what in the world has happened to Spencer freeman? |
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bradley PhD Student Posts 1842 |
03-07-20 09:03 AM - Post#303345
And I'll say it now in advance. I for one would rather that Harvard didn't have the tournament net to save them if they lose this weekend. And while I'd love for them to be in March Madness, my absolute first choice would be to win the regular season title. Still hoping for both, but this weekend (not Ivy Madness) will determine who gets the banner(s) as 2020 Ivy Champs. Honest and thoughtful comments and needless to say, I agree completely. What probably would have turned out to be a great year for the senior class was ambushed by injuries almost unheard of in the IL -- Towns, Aiken etc. It is somewhat amazing that Amaker got the team to even have a chance for the IL regular season crown but the Crimson obviously has issues. Yale has earned the right to represent the IL at the Big Dance but they probably have a 40-45% chance to represent the league going into Robin's Tournament. They will clearly be the highest seed from the IL emerging out of IvyMadness but that does not matter in our new world of IL BB but it would be somewhat ironic and perhaps good that the Crimson win IvyMadness especially in light of the prior two years of playing road games in the IyMadness final after being co-regular season champs. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32833 |
03-07-20 09:06 AM - Post#303347
Yeah, the old system was better, but this is what we have. You have the home ice next year. |
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Naismith Sophomore Posts 149 |
03-07-20 10:02 AM - Post#303354
Yes, congratulations to Yale. They are the 2019-20 Ivy champions, and it only took them 13 games into the 14-game tournament to get it done; a rare feat these days. Harvard's message to its community not to hold any events for more than 100 people on campus due to coronavirus is significant. Also, it can be a face-saving way to let this Madness quietly disappear after a 3-year 3-strike you're out adventure, and sending the Yale men and Princeton women to the Dance where they belong. (In case you missed it): 03-07-20 05:15 AM - Post#303341 This was in an email to all members of the Harvard community last night. ON-CAMPUS MEETINGS AND EVENTS We strongly discourage any non-essential meetings or events of 100 people or more |
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Noah Friedman Freshman Posts 34 |
03-07-20 10:55 AM - Post#303362
It sounds like according g to the article juzang will be back for ivy playoffs |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-07-20 01:31 PM - Post#303386
Not what I’m hearing or reading |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-07-20 01:47 PM - Post#303392
Bigs (Lewis, Forbes, Baker) shot 9 for 13. All others: 11 for 50. |
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Naismith Sophomore Posts 149 |
03-07-20 03:36 PM - Post#303411
Believe there was a line in HC game story saying He'd be back for tournament. May have been wishful thinking. |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
03-07-20 03:42 PM - Post#303414
"The Crimson was playing its second full game without senior point guard Christian Juzang, who injured his ankle last weekend and has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against Yale. Juzang has a good chance to return for next weekend’s tournament, something that cannot be said about fellow injured senior guards Seth Towns and Bryce Aiken." https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/3/7/mens -b... I believe I also remember reading somewhere that Amaker said that he was "hopeful" that Juzang would be back, but I can't remember where. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-07-20 10:40 PM - Post#303538
Heard tonight at Lavietes that Juzang is hopeful. Apparently Kirkwood has been playing hurt for a few games and he didn’t dress for Yale. So, without 4 starters Crimson walk over Yale after laying an egg vs Brown. Go figure. Amazing testament to the depth of this roster and Amaker’s recruiting. |
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SRP Postdoc Posts 4911 |
03-07-20 10:43 PM - Post#303539
Harvard had a first-half block party against Yale. Elis looked a bit lax to me, but what I saw of the Crimson effort was impressive. Especially without Kirkwood. |
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Noah Friedman Freshman Posts 34 |
03-10-20 01:45 PM - Post#303982
Who wants to help me write a petition to get this tournament back on? I am heartbroken for the players and am a huge Harvard fan |
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digamma Masters Student Posts 468 |
03-10-20 02:16 PM - Post#303996
You can find them online already. Knock yourself out. |
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Noah Friedman Freshman Posts 34 |
03-10-20 02:35 PM - Post#304002
Anyway this gets reversed it is thus final |
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Noah Friedman Freshman Posts 34 |
03-10-20 03:29 PM - Post#304027
Anyway they can play this at a neutral site? |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2692 |
03-10-20 05:46 PM - Post#304083
Harvard hockey plays at RPI Fri/Sat/[Sun] without fans. |
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