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| Username | Post: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's |
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Condor PhD Student Posts 1888 |
12-19-22 01:04 PM - Post#348259
OOC Tier Results for top 6 teams in the Ivy’s …………....KP Rank…...T1…..T2……....T3…….…T4 Ivy………………….….….0-8…..0-3…...11-11…..25-4 Yale………....79……....0-2…..0-1……..2-0……...5-0 Princeton…114……..0-0……0-1……..2-3………5-0 Penn………..151……..0-4…..0-0……...3-1……...3-2 Cornell…….176……...0-1…...0-1………1-1..……4-0 Harvard…..197………0-0….…0-0………1-3……..4-1 Brown……..227……..0-1…….0-0………2-3……..4-1 The league has yet to win a Tier 1 or 2 game. They are 500 in Tier 3 games. Yale has the best results to date. Penn would be second to Yale in Tier 3 results, but last in Tier 4 results. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32916 |
12-19-22 01:58 PM - Post#348260
Where do these tier rankings come from? Because for Penn, I assume the Tier 1 losses are to Villanova(55), Missouri(59), West Virginia(17) and Iona(63). I suspect the 3-1 Tier 3 record is the loss to Towson(126) and wins over Temple(113), Delaware(174) and Colgate(112). Which means the Tier 4 record includes the wins over Lafayette(299), Drexel(193) and Hartford(362) and OT losses to LaSalle(223) and St Joe's(228). There are 363 teams. So unless you are doing something other than placing 91 teams per tier, what you place as a Tier 3 record for Penn all fall in Tier 2. Penn has a 1-2 record against Tier 3 (Drexel, St Joe's and LaSalle) and are undefeated in Tier 4 against Lafayette and Hartford. Please explain. |
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Condor PhD Student Posts 1888 |
12-19-22 02:15 PM - Post#348262
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75 Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135 Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240 Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353 |
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Condor PhD Student Posts 1888 |
12-19-22 02:18 PM - Post#348263
Actually, I used Kenpom while the committee would use NET. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32916 |
12-19-22 02:22 PM - Post#348264
OK, in my view that breakdown is wholly subjective. The falloff between the teams at about 200 and those 50 spots below is far greater than home-away. (BTW, I know you used KenPom, which is why I did so also) This categorization puts far far too much emphasis on home-away. Really minimizes Penn's far tougher schedule than anyone else. But it's all for discussion purposes, I guess. If you show me that the chart would look anything like this if you simply broke the 363 teams into 4 equal (minus 1 for the last quadrant) parts, fine. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32916 |
12-19-22 02:38 PM - Post#348267
Let's just compare with Yale. Yale lost to Kentucky (8), Colorado (53) and Butler (77), which you have as 2 Tier 1s and a Tier 2. Yale's Tier 3s are Hawaii (137), and Vermont (143) and Tier 4s are thus Eastern Washington(209), Mississippi Valley State (360), Howard (270), Stony Brook(338) and Fairfield (251) The average of Yale's Tier 4s are 285.5 and Penn's are 220.8. Might explain the record, eh? |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
12-19-22 03:56 PM - Post#348280
Stats people have said that the NETs quadrants actually don't adjust for home/road enough, empirically speaking. Losing to Saint Joseph's at home is nearly equivalent to losing to Maine on the road according to KenPom, for example. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32916 |
12-19-22 04:03 PM - Post#348282
Probably a bad example given that those teams have a history of close games amid city rivalries. I hear you, but all I know is that the difference here is far greater than the usual weight of 3-4 points for HCA. The players on LaSalle and St. Joe's are considerably more athletic than players on America East/NEC/Patriot type teams. But all of this discussion really is verbal diarrhea. We'll see in a couple of weeks how these teams stack up against each other. |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21312 |
12-19-22 04:11 PM - Post#348283
Stats people have said that the NETs quadrants actually don't adjust for home/road enough, empirically speaking. Losing to Saint Joseph's at home is nearly equivalent to losing to Maine on the road according to KenPom, for example. Especially since it's far from a total "home" environment playing any of the Big 5 schools. How about Harvard losing at home to Howard? That's worse than the worst Penn loss this year by a bundle. |
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Condor PhD Student Posts 1888 |
12-19-22 04:12 PM - Post#348284
I think you are justified in criticizing the Tier performance measures. Regardless, the committee likes to use them, so I thought it might be interesting to see how the league had performed. Regardless, Penn’s losses to LaSalle and Saint Joe’s make Penn look more inconsistent than Yale and even Princeton performances. I also thought Princeton’s 114 ranking was in contrast with its tier performance which had no Tier 1’s, only 1 Tier 2 loss, and 2-3 against Tier 3 competition. |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
12-19-22 04:20 PM - Post#348285
Fair points all. I'm more excited about the league regular season than I've been since the 14GT was abolished. Five reasonably strong teams at the top fighting for four spots should make for good watching. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32916 |
12-19-22 04:22 PM - Post#348286
The key for me is that Penn has been competitive in every game it has played since West Virginia. Clearly, both Dingle and Slajchert were not anywhere near 100% when the season started and then after Slajchert was in shape, he suffered a knee contusion. Playing 2 men or more short, Penn has played much better of late. Would I have liked them to beat Joe's and LaSalle? Sure. But they look like they'll be very tough in the League. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32916 |
12-19-22 04:23 PM - Post#348287
I'm assuming you're not including Brown in this. I would. Six teams for 4 spots. |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
12-19-22 04:24 PM - Post#348288
I think you are justified in criticizing the Tier performance measures. Regardless, the committee likes to use them, so I thought it might be interesting to see how the league had performed. Regardless, Penn’s losses to LaSalle and Saint Joe’s make Penn look more inconsistent than Yale and even Princeton performances. I also thought Princeton’s 114 ranking was in contrast with its tier performance which had no Tier 1’s, only 1 Tier 2 loss, and 2-3 against Tier 3 competition. Princeton gets a lot of points for its massive MOV against UMBC, Drexel, and Monmouth. That's my biggest knock on KenPom, I think: the difference between beating a team by 25 and by 35 is really not that big, especially relative to the difference between beating a team by 1 vs. by 11. But afaik KenPom treats those two things as equivalent in terms of how they affect the rankings. |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
12-19-22 04:31 PM - Post#348291
I'm still not convinced by Brown, but Keno Lilly is really, really good. They're not on my list, but I wouldn't argue with anyone who thinks they're right there. |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21312 |
12-19-22 04:33 PM - Post#348292
Brown surprised me by finishing as low as it did last year. Lilly impressed plenty already last season. |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8355 
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12-19-22 10:05 PM - Post#348306
How about Harvard losing at home to Howard? That's worse than the worst Penn loss this year by a bundle. Tell that to Jelani Williams. |
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whitakk Masters Student Posts 523 |
12-21-22 09:20 PM - Post#348369
Princeton gets a lot of points for its massive MOV against UMBC, Drexel, and Monmouth. That's my biggest knock on KenPom, I think: the difference between beating a team by 25 and by 35 is really not that big, especially relative to the difference between beating a team by 1 vs. by 11. But afaik KenPom treats those two things as equivalent in terms of how they affect the rankings. I think this is mostly but not completely right -- KP now doesn't give you so much credit for bigger blowouts in a game that was already expected to be a blowout (Monmouth), but still does give you extra credit for bigger blowouts in a game that was expected to be close (Drexel) https://kenpom.com/blog/pomeroy-ratings- version-2.... |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
12-22-22 05:03 PM - Post#348417
Meanwhile the Big Red just walloped Colgate in Hamilton, adding another quality win to the league's total. |
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Mike Porter Postdoc Posts 3619 
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12-22-22 09:42 PM - Post#348439
Cornell surging and I didn’t even notice they’d jumped up to 137 in KP. Nice win against Colgate and showing it will be a tough Ivy slate. Harvard showing tonight that their defense translates at all levels. Even Brown at 6th I think will be very difficult. Should be quite the battle this season. For Penn we will quickly see where they are as we open away at Brown and Cornell, a tough start. |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
12-30-22 01:26 PM - Post#348583
Now that we're officially done with the nonconference slate, here's where the Ivies stand: Yale - KP 71 Best win: @Hawaii (KP 124) Worst loss: @Butler (KP 91) Princeton - KP 114 Best win: @Drexel (KP 191) Worst loss: vs. Delaware (KP 212) Cornell - KP 138 Best win: @Colgate (KP 128) Worst loss: @BC (KP 121) Penn - KP 155 Best win: @Drexel (KP 191)/ vs. Colgate (KP 128) Worst loss: vs. LaSalle (KP 256) Harvard - KP 178 Best win: @UC Irvine (KP 103) Worst loss: vs. Howard (KP 279) Brown - KP 208 Best win: @Bryant (KP 171) Worst loss: @Loyola MD (KP 302) Dartmouth - KP 311 Best win: @UTSA (KP 325) Worst loss: N vs. Incarnate Word (KP 354) Columbia - KP 343 Best win: @Lafayette (KP 264) Worst loss: vs. Farleigh Dickinson (KP 333) The IL is the 14th strongest conference in the country per KenPom, and there are six teams who could conceivably win the thing if things bounce their way. Ought to be an exciting conference season. |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3590 |
12-30-22 03:11 PM - Post#348588
You forgot Penn's Temple win as best win KP 135 Good summary! |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
12-30-22 06:32 PM - Post#348601
Luke Benz takes some time off from his PhD to keep us updated on Ivy League basketball: https://twitter.com/recspecs730/status/16 088915848... Interesting that Penn-Brown is such a big game for playoff qualification. I'm looking forward to the Keno Lilly-Jordan Dingle battle. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32916 |
12-30-22 07:17 PM - Post#348604
He’s been really down on Penn since pre-season—had us well below 200. Had some discussions with him about it on Twitter. But we’ll see— I think this is bigger for Brown than Penn |
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PennFan10 Postdoc Posts 3590 |
12-31-22 01:55 AM - Post#348610
Its funny he states there is uncertainty around Penn presumably because, according to him, their standard deviation is the highest in the league. Of course their SD is only high because he puts them almost 40 spots lower than the next lowest ranking on his list. If you take his ranking out, penn has one of the lowest standard deviations on the list. |
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HARVARDDADGRAD Postdoc Posts 2702 |
12-31-22 11:17 AM - Post#348612
How about “Best Loss”? #14 Miami 105, Cornell 103. @ Miami |
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6418 |
01-01-23 01:15 AM - Post#348689
I guess Columbia’s win over Yale is now the best victory in the league this year. |
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Streamers Professor Posts 8355
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01-01-23 11:16 AM - Post#348695
Wait what? Yale choked at Levien? Makes my day. Quick check if the box scores reveals both Harvard and Yale likely lost their games at the FT line. |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
01-16-23 11:19 PM - Post#349753
Well, now that we're five games into league play, I'm sure this is the order that everyone would've predicted on New Year's Eve, right? T-1: Princeton, Cornell (4-1) 3: Dartmouth (3-2) T-4: Yale, Penn, Harvard, Brown (2-3) 8: Columbia (1-4) |
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