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| Username | Post: 4,096 remaining scenarios as of Saturday afternoon |
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Stuart Suss PhD Student Posts 1439 |
02-18-23 02:13 PM - Post#351898
As provided by Luke Benz "Princeton hasn't clinched [a berth in the tournament] yet (don't make playoffs in only 36 out of 4096 possible scenarios) but rounded probability yields > 99.9%." |
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iogyhufi Masters Student Posts 681 |
02-19-23 11:48 AM - Post#352090
As of now, all three of Yale, Penn, and Princeton have clinched spots in the ILT (if Yale and/or Princeton loses out, they win any tie with Brown via their win over Penn, including a three-way tie with Cornell and Brown or a four-way tie with CBPY; Penn's win over Yale provides them with the same security). Here's what every team needs (if I've done the math correctly): Dartmouth: win out and have Cornell and Brown lose out Brown: outperform Cornell by a game Cornell: do as well or better than Brown and avoid a three way tie with Harvard Harvard: win out, if Cornell and Brown each lose at least one If Cornell loses out and Brown and Harvard are in a two-way tie, Brown wins the tie if it beats Yale, Harvard wins the tie if Brown loses to Yale and Cornell finishes above Dartmouth OR if Cornell and Dartmouth end up tied, Harvard likely wins on the analytics tiebreaker (though someone should check me on that one). |
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Stuart Suss PhD Student Posts 1439 |
02-19-23 12:56 PM - Post#352110
Here are the remaining 256 scenarios from Luke Benz, as corrected. For the Brown fans, if I have read Luke's percentages correctly, he has Brown as a 21.75% chance to make the tournament. If I have read correctly, there is a 74.08% chance of a Penn vs. Princeton matchup in the semifinals, 73.56% with the teams as 2 vs. 3 or 3 vs. 2 and a 0.52% chance with the teams as 1 vs. 4 or 4 vs. 1. If I have read correctly, there is a 23.18% chance of the semifinal matchups being Penn vs. Princeton and Yale vs. Harvard. |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32916 |
02-19-23 12:59 PM - Post#352112
There cannot be a 23% possibility of that, can there? Does Harvard have a 23% possibility of even making the playoff, having to play Princeton and Dartmouth and having to pick up a game against both Brown and Cornell? |
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Stuart Suss PhD Student Posts 1439 |
02-19-23 01:16 PM - Post#352113
As I read Luke's numbers: 23.69% chance of Harvard making the tournament. 23.18% chance of Harvard vs. Yale 00.50% chance of Harvard vs. Penn 00.01% chance of Harvard vs. Princeton It is not implausible that Yale defeats Cornell and Brown. Can Harvard win at Dartmouth? Can Harvard win at home against Princeton? How fast does Princeton recover from the Yale collapse? |
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Stuart Suss PhD Student Posts 1439 |
02-19-23 01:32 PM - Post#352120
For Penn fans hoping to avoid Princeton and Yale on successive days: If I have read correctly . . . 14.22% chance of a semifinal matchup between Princeton and Yale. 11.35% as a 2 vs. 3 and 2.87% as a 1 vs. 4. |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21313 |
02-19-23 06:07 PM - Post#352135
For Penn fans hoping to avoid Princeton and Yale on successive days: If I have read correctly . . . 14.22% chance of a semifinal matchup between Princeton and Yale. 11.35% as a 2 vs. 3 and 2.87% as a 1 vs. 4. Almost no chance whatsoever (.05%) of Princeton finishing 2nd and Yale finishing 3rd. So it's not really even a quinella, as almost all of that percentage chance is Yale 2, Princeton 3. Same for 1 vs 4. I got 3.08% chance and almost all of it is Yale 1 Princeton 4. |
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6418 |
02-20-23 02:50 PM - Post#352206
Really rooting for Brown here. For all the parity this year, here we are again with Yale and Penn in Ivy Madness (like every year) along with Princeton (like every year but one). For Harvard to sneak in to this would make for the same old field as just about every other year. Would be nice for Brown to break through (Dartmouth too, but that will take a miracle). |
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palestra38 Professor Posts 32916 |
02-20-23 03:09 PM - Post#352207
Is there even one possibility for Dartmouth? Luke Benz's twitter page shows it with 0.00% chance. |
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TheLine Professor Posts 5597 |
02-20-23 03:38 PM - Post#352211
Technically yes, if Dartmouth wins 2 while Cornell and Brown drop 2. Both Cornell and Brown hold the tiebreaker over Dartmouth. |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21313 |
02-20-23 03:46 PM - Post#352212
Is there even one possibility for Dartmouth? Luke Benz's twitter page shows it with 0.00% chance. His spreadsheet shows 4 scenarios out of the remaining 256 which would have Dartmouth ending up in 4th. He has updated his spreadsheet so that the decimal points now go to the 4th decimal. So many of those that were previously 0.00 (technically correct, but not actually 0) you now see the rather meager odds. The sum total is .0217% chance. |
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6418 |
02-20-23 06:32 PM - Post#352220
Problem is that the other way to state it is that Columbia has to win out for Dartmouth to sneak in. |
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penn nation Professor Posts 21313 |
02-20-23 06:53 PM - Post#352223
Yeah, in all 4 scenarios: Columbia has to win out. Dartmouth has to win out. Yale has to win out. Cornell has to lose twice. Brown has to lose twice. |
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