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Username Post: Rankings, Ratings and Polls
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
12-04-23 12:39 PM - Post#360132    

I thought there should be a catch-all thread for NET rankings, KenPom ratings, Top 25 polls (AP and Coaches), etc.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-m en/d1/nc...

Princeton has debuted at #8 (!!!) in the NCAA men's basketball NET rankings. NET is the official rating system of the NCAA tournament committee, so this is the number that I follow the most closely.

I still don't think we'll be ranked in either Top 25 unless we win both games this week (Drexel and St. Joe's). But what a start to the season!
Albert08
Masters Student
Posts 574
12-06-23 12:46 PM - Post#360206    

In College Insider's Mid-Major Polls this week (Dec. 4-5), the women are #2 and the men are #3. Princeton trying to become the Gonzaga (#1, #1) of the East.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
12-06-23 07:52 PM - Post#360224    

Tiger men up to 46 on KenPom and a projected #11 seed according to Joe Lunardi:

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/ page/bra...
sparman
PhD Student
Posts 1348
sparman
12-06-23 08:25 PM - Post#360226    

Notice how he likens Tigers to a light hitting shortstop who has a brief flirtation with a .500 average (see write-up on Oregon).
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
12-06-23 10:57 PM - Post#360245    

A bit early for bracketology to mean much. The Tigers will have to have a great conference season and a great Ivy tournament against a nasty league slate to even make that relevant.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
12-11-23 12:34 PM - Post#360494    

Following our first loss of the season...

NET ranking: #21. Down 10 spots. St. Joe's was a Quad 1 loss, but the Duquesne and Hofstra road wins were demoted to Quad 2 (just barely). Neutral site win vs. Rutgers remains Quad 2. These could easily change in the coming weeks.

KenPom: #53. We were hovering between 52-53 before the loss so we remain steady here.

Next D-1 game is at Delaware, who's having a very nice season with a recent win over Xavier. This would be a high Quad 2 win and a chance to move up a few spots.
ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts 338
12-11-23 12:46 PM - Post#360495    

Billy Lange was profuse in his praise for Tigers yesterday. Stated that Lee "is an NBA-level pg." Pierce "could play for any team in the country." Neither he nor Henderson would speculate on whether these teams will play each other next season.
ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts 338
12-11-23 04:25 PM - Post#360504    

Interesting that kenpom still favors Tigers to win all of their remaining games including Delaware and both Yale games. If that happens and the Tigers lose the Ivy tourney final it would be very hard to justify denying a Big Dance spot
sparman
PhD Student
Posts 1348
sparman
12-11-23 06:32 PM - Post#360514    

  • ToothlessTiger Said:
Interesting that kenpom still favors Tigers to win all of their remaining games including Delaware and both Yale games. If that happens and the Tigers lose the Ivy tourney final it would be very hard to justify denying a Big Dance spot.



You have a more charitable willingness to ascribe a sense of fairness to the Committee than I do.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
12-11-23 08:54 PM - Post#360519    

I think we'd have to lose to an Ivy in the NET Top 100. And only Cornell fits that bill right now. At long last though, we are in the realm of possibility of a 2-bid Ivy.

But let's revisit this topic in March if we go into the ILT final with 1 loss. I'm skeptical that we can make it through the Ivy gauntlet without 2-3 losses.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
12-11-23 08:58 PM - Post#360520    

  • ToothlessTiger Said:
Stated that Lee "is an NBA-level pg."



I'm calling it now: Xaivian Lee is getting drafted. Miye Oni was a late 2nd, but I think Lee will go late 1st, early 2nd.

Most NBA prospects out of the Ivy don't pass "the eye test" in terms of athleticism, but Lee's highlight reel moves are a real outlier. And he's just a sophomore! Imagine him in another year or two.

ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts 338
12-11-23 10:50 PM - Post#360534    

He had a good game (for him) not a great fame vs St. Joe's and Lange sounded relieved that he escaped
joe nassau
Sophomore
Posts 150
12-13-23 03:31 PM - Post#360610    

Miye Oni if he'd stayed woulda been a first round pick? His one and done really blew up in his face?
CM
Masters Student
Posts 437
12-13-23 07:21 PM - Post#360622    

So a NBA team is going to give Lee a guaranteed contract? Curious who you see as his comp who was a first rounder this year or last?
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
12-13-23 10:59 PM - Post#360627    

  • joe nassau Said:
Miye Oni if he'd stayed woulda been a first round pick? His one and done really blew up in his face?


I don't think so. Oni declared for the draft as a junior, but I don't think he would've moved up much with another year. Especially since his senior season would have had no NCAA tourney due to the pandemic.

  • CM Said:
So a NBA team is going to give Lee a guaranteed contract? Curious who you see as his comp who was a first rounder this year or last?


If you just mean "a late 1st/early 2nd round pick from a low/mid-major school," I'd point to Ben Sheppard (26th pick). He played with Drew Friberg on a Belmont team that didn't even make the tourney, but his talent was clear and he did well in pre-draft activities.

But if you go back further, I would compare Lee to CJ McCollum - a super-smooth, lanky, 6-3 guard with crafty finishes at the rim and a great 3pt stroke. McCollum played for Lehigh in the Patriot League - very comparable league to ours - but was selected 10th overall.

I'm not predicting that for Lee obviously, but considering Xaivian is just a sophomore, he has plenty of time to boost his stock over the next 2.5 years. Especially if Princeton wins a couple NCAA tourney games over the next 3 dances.

LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts 437
12-13-23 11:10 PM - Post#360628    

We need to wait and see.
Lee is playing great, but he
has never started an Ivy League
game. The League has some
very talented point guards--
Lilly, Mbeng, Mack. Lewt's
see if Lee rises to the top.
Hope he does.


CM
Masters Student
Posts 437
12-14-23 06:35 AM - Post#360632    

Lee is certainly intriguing and I tend to like that herky jerky style of guard play. Now he's more on my radar I'll look forward to seeing how he grows as a player/prospect.
whitakk
Masters Student
Posts 523
12-14-23 09:05 PM - Post#360687    

  • gokinsmen Said:
I think we'd have to lose to an Ivy in the NET Top 100. And only Cornell fits that bill right now. At long last though, we are in the realm of possibility of a 2-bid Ivy.

But let's revisit this topic in March if we go into the ILT final with 1 loss. I'm skeptical that we can make it through the Ivy gauntlet without 2-3 losses.



It won't happen but if Princeton doesn't lose again until the Ivy tournament it'll be like a 7 or 8-seed.

Even with two more regular-season losses I'd bet they get in. Three (KenPom's actual projection) is probably too many but not unthinkable.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
12-15-23 05:26 AM - Post#360693    

Princeton is not getting an at-large bid under any circumstances. Even if they’d beaten St. Joe’s, have a miracle undefeated conference season, and lose the IL tournament final in OT on a 3/4 court buzzer-beater. Not gonna happen.
ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts 338
12-15-23 11:28 AM - Post#360704    

SRP, kindly express your opinion more clearly, please?
LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts 437
12-15-23 12:05 PM - Post#360706    

I believe he thinks it is unlikely.
sparman
PhD Student
Posts 1348
sparman
12-15-23 12:48 PM - Post#360707    

As do some of the rest of us.
ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts 338
12-15-23 12:56 PM - Post#360710    

Oh, I see. Thanks. BTW, Yale at Princeton on 2/17, now on national platform ESPN 2
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
12-15-23 11:27 PM - Post#360718    

I apologize for my sniveling equivocations above.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
12-16-23 11:38 PM - Post#360720    

Tigers up to 47 on KenPom, slide to 21 on NET.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
12-17-23 12:23 PM - Post#360723    

Moving up 5 spots on KenPom without playing a game is nice. St. Joe's moved up to NET #48 with a rout of Iona - not a bad road loss for us.

The 12/30 game vs. Delaware is a big one. With the exception of Cornell, they could be our last NET Top 100 opponent. A road win against them could boost us a couple of spots.
sparman
PhD Student
Posts 1348
sparman
12-21-23 12:02 PM - Post#360760    

Article seems premised on the idea that Tigers win the Ivy tournament:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/insid...
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
12-21-23 01:45 PM - Post#360767    

I think they corrected the article because I remember having the same impression when I read it the other day, but it now reads:

  • Quote:
Princeton will reach the postseason having played just one major-conference opponent (Rutgers, in a game the Tigers won 68-61 in Trenton, New Jersey). If Henderson's group were to win the Ivy's automatic bid, this could be a team that flies under the radar due to not having any "signature" wins.


gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
12-21-23 01:46 PM - Post#360768    

Moved up to #14 in the NET rankings.

Got a big, indirect boost from Seton Hall and Villanova beating UConn and Creighton, respectively. On the down side, Delaware had a Quad 4 loss to Rider, which means we need to win that road game (preferably by 10+) to maintain a nice profile.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
12-24-23 03:59 PM - Post#360871    

Easy come, easy go. Down to #24 in the NET after a rough week for our opponents.

I don't harbor any at-large hopes after the St. Joe's loss, but I'd love to nab a quality seed (#9 or #10) if we win the ILT.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
12-31-23 04:19 PM - Post#361064    

#27 in the NET. #56 in KenPom. Still getting a single vote in each of the polls.

An outstanding non-conference performance considering the talent we lost (especially Tosan). If Pierce didn't get a couple ticky-tack calls on him, we'd probably be undefeated and ranked.

Conference play is a whole new beast, but the guys have proven they can win those nailbiter games that are guaranteed to happen in the Ivy. Winning ugly isn't ideal but it's a skill.


ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts 338
12-31-23 07:21 PM - Post#361068    

Tiger Rookie Dalen Davis has missed 2 FT's all year. Xavian Lee is hitting north of 80% but missed 2 at St. JOE'S. If Tigers made 2 or 3 of those the final minutes against the Hawks might have played out differently, and we might be unbeaten. Oh well.....
jeromelh
Junior
Posts 215
12-31-23 10:42 PM - Post#361074    

If you want to do a "could have, would have," I think the major problem at St Josephs was Pierce getting into early foul trouble and becoming a non factor. If he has a normal game, those foul shots don't matter.
Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2818
01-01-24 12:42 PM - Post#361091    

I am certain that the handful of teams that we beat by a couple of buckets are thinking the same about how they could have beaten us.. The closer the score the more that chance affects the outcome. Give me more 10 point victories.
jeromelh
Junior
Posts 215
01-01-24 01:53 PM - Post#361094    

You make a good point. Can you imagine how Furman must have felt??
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
01-01-24 03:54 PM - Post#361098    

Yes, winning the close ones is great. Double-digit victories are even better.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
01-01-24 07:02 PM - Post#361103    

I will admit that avoiding a bad home loss to Furman was probably more valuable than getting a good road win at St. Joe's. Both for the players' confidence as well as their potential NCAA seeding.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
01-07-24 05:48 PM - Post#361417    

Tigers sitting at #13 RPI, #28 NET, and #50 KenPom. I expect they’ll get some votes for top 25.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
01-09-24 12:17 AM - Post#361481    

I can't verify their methodology (subscription-based site), but this was interesting:

https://twitter.com/32_Analytics/status/1 744459640...

  • Quote:
There are currently 4 teams in the country that have multiple players that rank in the top 30 of our Player Season Grade statistic.

Those teams:
#1 Purdue
#3 Kansas
#7 North Carolina
Princeton

Watch out for Princeton

Xaivian Lee - 90.27 season grade (ranks 15th in the country)

Caden Pierce - 89.19 season grade (ranks 28th in the country)




Tiger81
Masters Student
Posts 412
Tiger81
01-09-24 06:59 PM - Post#361506    

Jerry Carino from the Asbury Park Press once again has Princeton as #25 in his ballot

  • Quote:
“Why Princeton? I’ve seen the Tigers in person twice. They were superb both times. Their loss at St. Joe’s was a high-level game in a very tough environment. These guys proved last March how good they were, and although Tosan Evbuomwan is in the G League right now, vastly improved guard Xaivian Lee (33 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists vs. Harvard) is playing close to an All-American level. And they’ve been consistently good for two months. It’s time to rank them.“



https://www.app.com/story/sports/college/ 2024/01/0...

gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
01-10-24 01:32 PM - Post#361539    

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/insid...

Jay Bilas currently has Princeton as his 40th best team and Xaivian Lee in his Mid-Major All-America Team:

  • Quote:
The Bilastrator's Early Season Mid-Major All-America Team

• Isaiah Stevens, Colorado State

• Xaivian Lee, Princeton

• Tyon Grant-Foster, Grand Canyon

• Xavier Johnson, Southern Illinois

• Johnell Davis, Florida Atlantic


gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
01-12-24 12:12 AM - Post#361586    

More love from ESPN:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/story...

  • Quote:
Which team will surprise us all by March?

Gasaway: If it's possible for a team to surprise us two years in a row, Princeton is about to do so. The Tigers will greet Selection Sunday with zero Quad 1 wins after having played a schedule that included only one major-conference opponent (Rutgers). No one will be talking about Mitch Henderson's group except to say that they "haven't played anybody." But Xaivian Lee and Caden Pierce can play.



https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/story...

  • Quote:
Dickie V's elite 8 mid-majors to watch

Princeton Tigers, Ivy League

The Tigers are sitting solidly in the top 30 NET rankings with a 12-1 nonconference record (and 1-0 in Ivy League play) and three Quad 2 wins. The Tigers, who made a Sweet 16 run last year, are looking to make back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances for the first time since doing three straight from 1996 to 1998. Princeton's 9-0 start this season is also its best in more than 100 years.


Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2818
01-12-24 11:36 AM - Post#361600    

All talk for now. First we have to win the stupid Tournament in N.Y. where anything can happen since there is no chance that the NCAA will allow 2 Ivies to cash in. Then, the Ivy will receive the usual low seed, minimizing the prospect of advance beyond Round One.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
01-12-24 12:38 PM - Post#361604    

How 'bout this love from ESPN's Bracketology (along with a #11 seed)?

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/ page/bra...

  • Quote:
The Princeton Tigers are rolling along, sporting a 13-1 overall record and a sub-30 NET. They won their Ivy League opener by 31 points over Harvard and will be the betting favorite in all 13 of their remaining regular-season games. They don't and won't have a Q1 win, but they have four in Q2 as well as six true road victories. Their only loss (at Saint Joseph's) sits in Q1 currently. Conceivably, the Tigers could be 27-1 or thereabouts heading into the Ivy League championship game on Selection Sunday. What would the committee do if Princeton drops that last game? Could the Ivy League really be a two-bid league? The answer from this seat is clearly "yes." And the uniqueness of it all is worth watching and even rooting for.


Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2818
01-12-24 01:38 PM - Post#361607    

I’ll believe it when I see it. Also, it’s a long shot that anyone’s record goes unblemished in the 14 game regular season.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
01-12-24 07:51 PM - Post#361627    

Tiger69, I think you may be underestimating the power of conventional wisdom and psychic momentum being on our side this year. It took several years of knocking off big name schools and near misses in the tournament for the '91 team to gain a #8 seed in the tournament. The spectacular '98 team certainly benefited from the '96 team's defeat of UCLA and the painfully near miss of the '97 team. I don't think the '98 team gets a #5 seed without the success of the previous two years. This year's Tigers will benefit from last year's Sweet Sixteen team because this is how this works.

By the way, after working late last night I flipped on the tube and watched a pretty mediocre looking, turnover-prone Santa Clara team (recently defeated by Yale) take down #23 Gonzaga. I'd be stunned if Gonzaga doesn't get a ticket to the dance if they don't win their conference tournament this year because of the name they've built for themselves over the years.

Let's soak up all of the accolades pouring in for this year's Tigers and hope they keep rolling!

Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2818
01-12-24 11:29 PM - Post#361628    

I hope that you are correct. I’m a bit cynical in my old age. The world hasn’t turned out as I hoped for 50+ years ago.
sparman
PhD Student
Posts 1348
sparman
01-13-24 01:17 PM - Post#361630    

No argument about the potential usefulness of prior NCAA success, but I think Gonzaga and Princeton are apples and oranges when it comes to extra invites.

KenPom has Gonzaga #27, Tigers #52. Gonzaga has wins over several P5 conference teams, even if they are mediocre (with possibility of one more - Kentucky - though unlikely), Tigers have one and won't get any more in regular season. Gonzaga has multiple years of high-level NCAA tournament wins since 1998, including many Elite 8 and Sweet 16 performances, Princeton has one.

Gonzaga is now being dismissed as an at-large team by at least some bracket makers - see https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ne ws/... and https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-baske tba...

If Tigers lose any games going forward, it will be to a team ranked no higher currently, and almost certainly considerably lower, than Gonzaga just lost to (Yale 108, Santa Clara 109, with the next highest ivy Penn at 165) unless Gonzaga loses to one of the poor WCC teams. So, IMO Tigers probably will be more adversely affected ratings-wise by a loss than Gonzaga.

I know some people, such as at espn, have been talking them up and perhaps that sentiment will prevail, but until it happens I am very dubious.

In the meantime, let's win the games and, as you say, enjoy the team.
SecS3
Junior
Posts 246
01-13-24 02:25 PM - Post#361631    

Granted, it's not quite the same, but we'll find out how much previous success in the tournament influences the NCAA this year for the women's team. Will they get an at large bid if they don't win the ILT and how much will it affect their seed in either scenario?
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
02-06-24 12:17 PM - Post#362840    

Somehow made ESPN's inaugural 2024 Bubble Watch:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/insid...

  • Quote:
Princeton Tigers
Up until late January, Princeton was looking absolutely ideal on paper, and talk of a potential two-bid Ivy was beginning to gain traction. Then the Tigers dropped road games by 15 at Cornell and by six at Yale, and now the picture has been altered dramatically. Mitch Henderson's team dropped more than 20 spots in the NET rankings in the space of a few days. Perhaps there's still a glimmer of at-large hope for a 16-3 team that might crack the top-50 in this or that metric, but the more promising path to the field of 68 for the Tigers is likely to be winning the Ivy's automatic bid.



Zero chance of course, but even token consideration after 2 losses tells me a 2-bid Ivy has become a real possibility. Next season will be very interesting...
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
02-06-24 07:18 PM - Post#362849    

I love this. Sports writers are a bunch of lemmings so ink like this will keep the buzz alive. Sweet sixteen. Great start. X.Lee. What’s not to love? Now, we just have to get another winning streak going. Go Tigers!
whitakk
Masters Student
Posts 523
02-06-24 10:27 PM - Post#362856    

If they win out until the final they'll have a really strong case on the resume metrics - even today they're still ahead of Kentucky in WAB and SOR.

They still wouldn't get in because of the "count up Quad 1-2 record" crap, and the team quality metrics have fallen enough that I'm not sure even I'd get too worked up over it (also the bubble seems stronger than usual because the top teams keep losing).
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
02-06-24 11:37 PM - Post#362858    

I remember hearing on the Yale or Cornell broadcast that the NCAA Committee was sent a copy of the email in which two power conference teams pulled out of a tournament when Princeton joined - leading to the entire event being canceled.

That is to say, I don't think a lack of Quad 1 wins is fatal because the committee is aware that "Princeton + Sweet 16" makes marquee opponents run for the hills. Also, having no Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses is a major plus - even elite teams have 1 or 2 bad losses.

What is fatal, however, is losing too many Quad 2 road games. Those are our version of "marquee" opportunities. Can't lose @St. Joe's AND @Cornell AND @Yale. Oh well. I just think it's worth noting that the mainstream tide is finally turning - look out in 2025.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
02-07-24 08:33 PM - Post#362870    

I have expressed my extreme skepticism about a two-bid Ivy under any circumstances, but the buzz is good for the league. It helps to have one player that the commentators can fixate on as the star of the team, so Lee getting some publicity is a plus for this sort of chit-chat.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
02-07-24 08:49 PM - Post#362872    

Speaking of which, Bart Torvik is a stathead that's been getting some traction (like Ken Pomeroy in his early days) and his player rankings have Xaivian Lee as the 16th most productive player in D-I. And he's the only underclassman in the Top 35.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&y...

Not surprisingly, Caden Pierce ranks 41st. This is the second or third advanced metric I've seen that has Lee as an elite-level player and Pierce as near-elite. The fact that they're only sophomores and playing in the Ivy League is amazing.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
02-10-24 02:07 AM - Post#362934    

Gonna be hard to top TJ Bray’s senior season, but that’s great.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
02-11-24 02:00 PM - Post#363118    

ESPN Bubble Watch update:

  • Quote:
Princeton Tigers
While the Ivy's top-to-bottom strength is similar to what we've seen before in its best showings (including 2022-23), this could mark the first season the league produces three top-100 KenPom teams. Princeton is the strongest of the three, according to KenPom, though Mitch Henderson's 17-3 team is in third place in the league standings, behind Yale and Cornell. Nevertheless, the Tigers are hanging around Bubble Watch because if they do string together enough wins for this question to be raised, their team sheet numbers won't doom their chances. Those numbers are already strong.


sparman
PhD Student
Posts 1348
sparman
02-11-24 02:37 PM - Post#363120    

Of course the key qualifier for the question even to be raised is stringing together enough wins. Based on team's performance the past several games, I would not say it is likely the question will be raised.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
02-18-24 01:09 AM - Post#363428    

Latest Bubble Watch update. Again, ZERO chance at an at-large but it's still worth reading:

  • Quote:
PRINCETON TIGERS
The safest path to the field of 68 for any member of a league that's 0-for-forever on at-large bids is to qualify automatically. At 19-3, Princeton's chances of winning the Ivy's automatic bid are significantly greater than the probability of earning an at-large invite. Still, in an effort to reach for that second lifeline in case it becomes necessary, the Tigers might wish to climb even a little higher in the NET rankings and surface in the 40s. (Winning by 11 at home against Yale was a start.) That, plus the committee's memory of Princeton's 2023 Sweet 16 run and, ideally, a collapse among some bubble rivals, could at least give the Tigers a shot.



Last year's Sweet 16 run is clearly affecting perception of this year's team. Need to win the ILT, but if we do, I honestly think a 10-seed is possible.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
02-18-24 04:31 AM - Post#363431    

Back up to 65 on KenPom from 72 yesterday.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
02-18-24 12:41 PM - Post#363453    

And an NET ranking of 53. As Jerry Carino notes...

https://www.app.com/story/sports/college/ 2024/02/1...

  • Quote:
That’s better than Northwestern (59) and South Carolina (57), which are considered to be safely in the field. It’s better than Butler (56), which ESPN bracketologist Joe Lundardi has as one of his “last four byes.” It’s better than Providence (58) and Ole Miss (64), which Lunardi has among the last four in. It’s better than four more teams listed in Lunardi’s first 12 out, including Memphis (81!) which has played like garbage for ages now but won some big games quite literally last year.


sparman
PhD Student
Posts 1348
sparman
02-18-24 02:54 PM - Post#363461    

All trumped by Lunardi definitively proclaiming no ivy at large this year ......
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
02-18-24 05:08 PM - Post#363470    

It’s the Quad nonsense. He’s just predicting what the committee will do, and he’s right.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
02-18-24 05:30 PM - Post#363473    

I hate this angsty conventional wisdom setting, which just leads to self-fulling prophesies. Frankly, I wish sportswriters like Jerry Carino would stop affirming this narrative and spin a little our way.
Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2818
02-18-24 06:57 PM - Post#363478    

This is simply the unhappy consequence of having a relatively amateur program in a world of big money programs with high paid coaches and other hangers on (recruiters, sports analysts, etc.) looking out for each other.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
02-18-24 07:30 PM - Post#363480    

I couldn't agree more, 69. There is a small amount of room for the mid majors to gain respect but to take 2 teams into the tournament from conferences like the Ivy League would mean fewer can make it from the power conferences. Its a zero sum game after all

Interesting to watch the Tigers upswing, though. Sweet 16 appearance brings a lot more exposure and greater fan support (I would guess that ticket sales for the league games may be up 2,000 or so per game on average this year). I'd imagine that both of these things will help with recruiting.

Princeton was on this virtuous cycle in the late 90s until Chris Young signed with MLB and things spun away. Harvard seemed to be on this upwards trajectory in the mid-2010s until they crapped out.

Is it possible for Princeton (or any Ivy) to sustain an upwards trajectory and break through the Ivy wall that keeps them from securing games against power conferences and garnering the respect that it would take for the league to be considered for 2 bids?
Bryan
Junior
Posts 233
02-18-24 08:15 PM - Post#363483    

  • SRP Said:
It’s the Quad nonsense. He’s just predicting what the committee will do, and he’s right.



This Princeton team is good, easy to root for and fun to watch. They are currently ranked 66 in KenPom which has no bias for Big Conference versus Small Conference teams. If Princeton needs an at large bid to make the NCAA tournament then they will lose at least one more game --> in that case their Pomeroy rating will be worse than 66. While 66 is very good it is not good enough to get an at large bid. So even if you ignore the Quad system that helps Big Conference schools, Princeton would still not get an at large bid under a fairer system.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
02-18-24 08:38 PM - Post#363485    

You’re just echoing the same BS. Rutgers, who we beat, and Seton Hall, who Rutgers beat, are considered “bubble” teams by the beacketologists when both have inferior NET rankings to Princeton’s. The NET, not KenPom, is supposed to be the system the NCAA came up with to help with tournament selection and seeding.
Dial Lodge
Sophomore
Posts 170
02-18-24 10:33 PM - Post#363492    

https://www.app.com/story/sports/college/ 2024/02/1...

Artile on rankings and the chances for an at-large bid for Princeton (which this article says are zero).
Bryan
Junior
Posts 233
02-18-24 10:54 PM - Post#363495    

  • TigerFan Said:
You’re just echoing the same BS. Rutgers, who we beat, and Seton Hall, who Rutgers beat, are considered “bubble” teams by the beacketologists when both have inferior NET rankings to Princeton’s. The NET, not KenPom, is supposed to be the system the NCAA came up with to help with tournament selection and seeding.



My only source was Pomeroy. You're the one who referenced bracketologists. If a 4 or 5 loss Princeton should get an at-large bid then there should be some measure that shows that. If not, you're wishing with your heart, not your head.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
02-19-24 12:03 AM - Post#363502    

My problem with the Selection Committee is that they forget what their own tournament is: neutral-site games against non-conf opponents. Winning away from home against quality non-conf opponents should be the #1 criteria for at-large consideration.

But alas they reward power conference teams who refuse to play road games vs good non-conf teams and run for the hills when Princeton wants to join their neutral-site tournament.

That said, I think there's a legit chance for a 2-bid Ivy next season. Princeton should be as good or better and the same could be said of Yale. Harvard and Columbia should improve and Cornell may only take a small step back with the way Earl coaches. I can see Princeton with a NET in the 30s but losing in the ILT.
Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2818
02-19-24 12:53 PM - Post#363534    

I believe that one possible solution to the current selection mess that is arbitrarily and weighted against non so-called power conferences, is to award each conference at least one spot and limit all conferences to no more than say, 25% of their members (or as many as 4 spots to a conference of 16). With the present field of 64 this would allow more non power teams that do not always get the opportunity to play power conference teams and still give a liberal number of spots to runner ups from power conferences.
Of course, the power conferences will whine because the money will likely be more spread out than in the past.
iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts 681
02-19-24 01:02 PM - Post#363537    

Yup, I'm afraid you're right. The NCAA operates on the Golden Rule - he who has the gold makes the rules.
sparman
PhD Student
Posts 1348
sparman
02-19-24 07:22 PM - Post#363576    

More like he who has the gold takes more.
whitakk
Masters Student
Posts 523
02-19-24 09:35 PM - Post#363590    

  • Bryan Said:
  • SRP Said:
It’s the Quad nonsense. He’s just predicting what the committee will do, and he’s right.



They are currently ranked 66 in KenPom which has no bias for Big Conference versus Small Conference teams. If Princeton needs an at large bid to make the NCAA tournament then they will lose at least one more game --> in that case their Pomeroy rating will be worse than 66.



Factually this is wrong - KP currently projects Princeton to finish 11-3, so in expectation going 12-2 would increase their rating, probably by significantly more than losing a 60-40 game in the tournament (specifics would depend on margins of course).

I mostly agree with your general point - that finishing in the late 50s to high 60s is a bubble-worthy team but by no means one that's an injustice to leave out. I would especially agree with it if the committee consistently used a Kenpom-like ranking to select the field, which would be a better system than the arbitrary one we have now.

The best system, and the metrics-based case for Princeton, is to use Strength of Record or Wins Against Bubble (Princeton is ~35 in each and would probably be around 40 with winning out until a conference tourney loss). These measure how many games a team won against their schedule, compared to what another good team would have done, using the whole schedule and metrics that actually assess team quality - a real metric of a team's resume, and one that makes the results of every game matter.

Instead the committee is scared of metrics and only trusts numbers they can count on one hand, which is how we get the "Quad 1/2 wins" crap that disadvantages mid-majors.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
02-21-24 09:04 PM - Post#363725    

College Insider has Princeton #5, Cornell #12, and Yale #13 in its Mens Mid Major Top 25.

https://collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2698
02-21-24 10:38 PM - Post#363731    

And, remarkably, Harvard got votes (#41?)
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts 2698
02-21-24 10:41 PM - Post#363732    

For WBB
Princeton #2
Columbia #15
Harvard #42
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
02-22-24 05:08 PM - Post#363777    

Not quite a ranking or rating, but Mitch made ESPN's "coaches to watch" feature. It's mostly just speculation based on who's doing well and who's on the hot seat, but it's nice to see the program and the league get positive attention:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/insid...

  • Quote:
Mitch Henderson, Princeton Tigers: While FAU received most of the Cinderella talk in last year's NCAA tournament, Princeton made a stunning Sweet 16 run as a 15-seed. Henderson has the Tigers one game out of first place in the league. He is likely to get in the mix at Stanford if it opens.



James Jones also got mentioned as a desirable candidate but no possible destination was mentioned. And Dartmouth was included in a list of potential vacancies.
Dial Lodge
Sophomore
Posts 170
02-26-24 10:16 PM - Post#364021    

ESPN Bracketology has Yale in the Tournament as a #13 seed.

CBS Bracketology has Princeton in the Tournament as a #11 seed.

We need to win the next 5 games, and we will have a solid seed. Lose to Cornell (or worse, Columbia or Penn, and taking our arch-rival Penn lightly is something that we can do only at our peril, although Mitch is well aware of that) and win the Ivy Tournament, we probably get a 12 or 13 seed.

Of course, we do have to win the Tournament to get anything but a trip to the NIT.
Dial Lodge
Sophomore
Posts 170
02-26-24 10:24 PM - Post#364023    

  • TigerFan Said:
Is it possible for Princeton (or any Ivy) to sustain an upwards trajectory and break through the Ivy wall that keeps them from securing games against power conferences and garnering the respect that it would take for the league to be considered for 2 bids?



In the mid-to-late 1990's (back when Coach Henderson had fuzzy cheeks, no grey hairs and played, rather than coached), Princeton was able to schedule some power conference games, win some of them and even win a few in-season tournaments over the big boys. If the team is strong enough, we could schedule some of these teams.

gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
02-26-24 11:42 PM - Post#364028    

The Sweet 16 run scared away the power conferences - and rightly so. Somehow this team got even better this year and no powerhouse programs want to play Princeton anywhere - not even on their home court.

However, it's worth noting that we're still on ESPN Bubble Watch. If not for the Ivy road losses to Cornell and Yale, there was a slim opportunity for an at-large. Had we lost only 1 of those 2 games, the Selection Committee might be taking a serious look.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
02-27-24 12:55 AM - Post#364032    

CBS bracketologist Jerry Palm has the Tigers as a #11 seed in his brackets this week:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/br ack...
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
02-27-24 05:40 AM - Post#364034    

Meanwhile, Kansas State is considered to be in the first four out, even after struggling at home to put away a KenPom 134 West Virginia squad. Princeton is seven ranks better than K State on KP.
whitakk
Masters Student
Posts 523
02-27-24 09:32 PM - Post#364059    

ESPN WBB bracketology has Princeton as a #10 and four spots clear of the play-in despite no longer being the automatic qualifier (they gave that to Columbia for some reason).

Of course any scenario where that matters will involve another loss, albeit most likely a Q1 game at Columbia in the Ivy final. Seems pretty safe that they'll be in the field even if that happens, but could slip into the first four.
ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts 338
02-28-24 09:54 AM - Post#364069    

Wonder if Ivy gets 2d bid if Columbia loses in final. Lions deserved bud last year but for late stumble vs Harvard
Albert08
Masters Student
Posts 574
02-28-24 01:54 PM - Post#364094    

Falling in the ESPN Bracketology seeding to a #10 is actually a blessing in disguise for Princeton, if their ultimate goal is (as I think it is) to get past the NCAA first weekend. Before the Columbia loss Bracketology had them as a #9 seed who, if they won the first-round game, would have had to play #1 seed Stanford. Playing a #2 or #3 seed would seem to improve the odds of a second-round win (see near misses in 2022 and 2023 against Indiana and Utah).
whitakk
Masters Student
Posts 523
02-28-24 11:18 PM - Post#364132    

  • ToothlessTiger Said:
Wonder if Ivy gets 2d bid if Columbia loses in final. Lions deserved bud last year but for late stumble vs Harvard



no chance this year, didn't do enough in non-conference. ESPN has them at 12 right now, below the at-large line even without another loss.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
02-28-24 11:19 PM - Post#364133    

Joe Lunardi @ ESPN breaks his normal rules by slotting Cornell into his bracket from the Ivies as a 14 seed instead of the Tigers, despite Princeton being a whopping 42 places better in NET and 57 spots better in KenPom. I suspect he did this to justify a lower seed for the Ivies. They guy hates the league.
whitakk
Masters Student
Posts 523
02-28-24 11:20 PM - Post#364134    

probably just because they'd have H2H tiebreaker if the season ended today
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
03-05-24 01:33 AM - Post#364525    

The Tigers get 3 votes in this week’s AP Top 25 poll and are holding at #5 in College Insider’s Mid Major Top 25. With the win over Cornell, I’ve seen them picked by various “bracketologists” between a 10 seed and a 13 seed in the NCAA tournament. What a joy to be in the conversation again this year!

Go Tigers!


Tiger81
Masters Student
Posts 412
Tiger81
03-05-24 09:46 AM - Post#364535    

Jerry Carino from the Asbury Park Press publishes his ballot every week and the Tigers reappeared at #25 this week.

  • Quote:
Princeton doesn’t have the metrics because high-majors avoided them like the plague, but this team is fully capable of advancing to the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend – again – with five players who did it last March



ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts 338
03-05-24 10:26 AM - Post#364541    

Carino is, of course, a megaphone for Garden State hoops, but his reasoning is spot on. Princeton has a record that should impact its standing on selection Sunday.
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
03-05-24 03:04 PM - Post#364574    

Princeton still making a token appearance in ESPN's Bubble Watch. Meanwhile, the current mock brackets project us as an 11 or 12 seed.

Win the ILT and I think 11 is most likely.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
03-05-24 07:38 PM - Post#364606    

Princeton is included in all of the brackets I've seen today as an 11 or 12 seed. (Someone has them as a 10 seed but I can't seem to find that one now).

USA Today (11 seed) https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/20 24/0...

CBS Sports (11 seed) https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/br ack...

Andy Katz (11 seed) https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/a rticle/2...

ESPN (12 seed) https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/ page/bra...

Washington Post (12 seed) https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/03/05/n...

SB Nation (12 seed) https://www.bloggingthebracket.com/2024/3/5/240911...

TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
03-05-24 09:35 PM - Post#364608    

Team Rankings has Princeton as a 10 seed:

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/brack ...

Note that this site considers the three teams ranked above the Tigers and the three teams ranked below the Tigers all more likely to make the tournament.

The Tigers are considered to be a 10 seed but only have a 52% chance of making the tournament while the teams considered to be the top three 11 seeds are thought to have an 83%, 70%, and 65% chance to make the tournament.

That pretty much says it all.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
03-05-24 09:48 PM - Post#364610    

Still have two must-win games ahead for seeding discussion to even matter and one important game maintaining these lofty expectations.

I’d rather have the twelfth than the tenth—the five vs seven opponent in the first round is not as big a difference as the two versus the four should one get to the second round.
whitakk
Masters Student
Posts 523
03-06-24 09:41 PM - Post#364683    

  • SRP Said:
I’d rather have the twelfth than the tenth—the five vs seven opponent in the first round is not as big a difference as the two versus the four should one get to the second round.



Normally I'd agree, but this year there isn't much difference at all between the likely 2-through-4 seeds. (A big dropoff after the top three teams, and another smaller dropoff after about the 4-seeds.)
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
03-06-24 09:54 PM - Post#364684    

If this team wins the ILT, they can beat anyone outside the Top 3. Last year's team beating #2 Arizona - a trendy pick to win it all - makes anything look possible.

But it all starts with getting there. I suspect every game we have left will be a nailbiter - no one is rolling out the red carpet for a Tiger coronation.
Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2818
03-07-24 01:26 AM - Post#364693    

Uh, let’s win the League before talking about the ILT. IF we win the ILT, then we can talk about our NCAA opponent. I hope that the Team is putting all its focus on the next game it plays
ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts 338
03-07-24 06:02 PM - Post#364727    

I suspect these kids are not looking past Penn, a good team with nothing on the line except pride in its final game of the year. All of them have been through it before except Davis. He strikes me as relishing the chance to shine on the big stage. You know the seniors will be prepared. The ILT on a neutral court for everyone presents a most interesting challenge.
LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts 437
03-07-24 06:20 PM - Post#364728    

The Penn game is a huge opportunity.
Princeton controls its fate. A win guarantees
a share of the Ivy title and the 1 Seed in the
Tournament.
Penn is a tough match-up for us. They play through
Spinoso, who is big and skilled. Slatjert will
be better this game as he has played into
shape. But I think we have more pieces
and better chemistry.
Before the season, the consensus was that
Yale would be historically great, and Princeton
would struggle to replace 3 starter, including
Tosan-- a generational talent.
We are small, and do not have a long bench.
Austen, a dynamic athlete who could have made
a big contribution, needed more time to recover
than we hoped. We have overcome all of that
with a tough, cohesive group who all score and play hard.
Let's go to Columbia on a high note.
i
ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts 338
03-07-24 06:37 PM - Post#364730    

Regarding Austen, I overheard him say that he expects to be back next year fully recovered. This was last Saturday.
LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts 437
03-07-24 06:44 PM - Post#364733    

That would be huge!
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
03-11-24 06:06 PM - Post#365035    

- NET ranking holds at #48 despite a bad day for our non-conf opponents.

- KenPom at #57. 28 offense, 136 defense.

- 7 votes in the AP Top 25 poll. 1 in the Coaches.

Gotta win the ILT to get into the NCAAs, but it's clear that this has been a remarkable season.
Tiger81
Masters Student
Posts 412
Tiger81
03-11-24 08:05 PM - Post#365037    

LocalTiger and Gokinsmen nailed it, this has been a truly spectacular season.

The superb coaching staff, the improved play of Pierce, Lee and Martini, and the gritty and the steady leadership of Matt Allocco have resulted in a team that has found many ways to win.

Every game next weekend will be a war, I’m looking forward to some outstanding Ivy hoops.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
03-11-24 09:15 PM - Post#365038    

Yes, a very special season that I don’t want to end. Hope the players will be looser than I am.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
03-14-24 04:42 PM - Post#365220    

I believe we are down to two non-conference Tiger opponents still playing in their league tournaments. St. Joe's just knocked off Chris Mooney's Atlantic-10 #1 seeded Richmond, which should help with the Tiger's NET & KenPom. Duquense plays AP #24 Dayton tonight. Root for the Dukes.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
03-14-24 07:54 PM - Post#365226    

I saw St. Joes play on TV a number of times this year, and I thought they underperformed. Figures that they came to life against Richmond, a team I usually root for, although in this case the ill wind blows good for the Tigers.
TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
03-14-24 08:16 PM - Post#365227    

Princeton moved up to 55 today on KenPom, presumably because of St. Joe's win.
Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2818
03-14-24 10:12 PM - Post#365228    

Really, isn’t this a waste of time and effort signifying nothing?
gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts 3678
03-14-24 10:24 PM - Post#365229    

Duquesne just bumped off Dayton. Wow.

On one hand, the Hawks and Dukes just gave us a nice NET boost. On the other hand, they're a reminder that Brown is ready to pounce on Saturday. We gotta be locked in from the opening tip, especially on defense.
1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts 2277
1LotteryPick1969
03-14-24 10:25 PM - Post#365230    

  • TigerFan Said:
St. Joe's just knocked off Chris Mooney's Atlantic-10 #1 seeded Richmond



Richmond undone by Reynolds for St. Joseph, another PG county MD point guard like Mack, and Lilly. Let's hope we can contain Lilly on Saturday.

TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts 1892
03-14-24 10:45 PM - Post#365231    

  • Tiger69 Said:
Really, isn’t this a waste of time and effort signifying nothing?



Tiger, don't take away my joy. I've been hopefully (and prematurely) speculating on Princeton's potential NCAA tourney seeding for decades. Silly? perhaps. But its a lot more fun that speculating about next year like our friends from Philly are doing right now.
SRP
Postdoc
Posts 4919
03-15-24 12:33 AM - Post#365232    

Also it’s fun to have stats to back up complaints about the selection committee screwing over mid-majors in general, the Ivies in particular, and Princeton especially.
ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts 338
03-15-24 04:29 PM - Post#365264    

Well put, Steve
Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts 2818
03-15-24 04:49 PM - Post#365265    

With that I concede



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