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| Username | Post: Will Columbia take it all next year? | |
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CU.LIONS Senior Posts 398 |
03-08-09 05:22 PM - Post#60648
Now that the season is over and we have seen what Columbia is capable of, barring injuries, Will next year finally be the year????? I say YES... GO LIONS !!!!! |
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The Lion King Junior Posts 257 |
03-08-09 06:01 PM - Post#60651
I hate to be negative, but: No. With Grimes and Craig, as well as players healed from injuries, they will certainly improve, but I don't see how they'll be better than Cornell. Of the other teams, Penn and Princeton can be expected to improve next year, Penn because next year's team will be more in tune with the coach and Princeton because they're not graduating much. I also think Harvard will improve, though they could just as easily go the other way; they were definitely a split-personality team this season. And Brown should improve (they had a good final weekend, and anyway they couldn't get much lower). The only teams likely to be worse next year, in my reckoning, are Dartmouth and Yale. So I expect Columbia to have a better record in a better league next year, but I really can't see them winning the title. |
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Columbia 37P6 Postdoc Posts 2184 |
03-08-09 10:07 PM - Post#60664
Unless Coach Jones successfully recruits a couple of impact players in the next month, I don't see how anyone can reasonably expect the Lions to compete for the Ivy League Championship next season. There are too many unknowns. Will Foley recover from his foot injury and remain healthy the whole season? Will Ampim recover from his foot injury and remain healthy the whole season? Will Grimes, Scott and Staab return from their injuries. How good a player is Max Craig (hopefully very good)? Will Johnson, Crockett and Maase be ready for prime time. Cornell has a huge amount of returning talent and a number of very promising recruits including two transfers. Harvard has its second big time recruiting class and Princeton has an outstanding group coming in next year. Dartmouth has another group of promising recruits from Texas. Penn will be much better. Only Yale and Brown are question marks. Incidentally, I recognize that it is very late in the year from a recruiting standpoint. However, late recruting has been Coach Jones' style the last three seasons and the good news is that there seems to be a number of strong, uncommitted Ivy League prospects still out there in New Jersey and the rest of the USA. Please remember that Coach Jones needs to get another 3-5 players in light of all the injuries and probable attrition. |
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CUJacob Senior Posts 353 |
03-08-09 10:32 PM - Post#60665
On paper, Cornell should be significantly improved-- Mark Coury should get the Brian Kreefer minutes and be an upgrade, particularly on defense and on the glass. Max Groebe will get some of the Adam Gore/Geoff Reeves/Chris Wroblewski minutes and is potentially an upgrade over what Cornell got out of those guys this year. Columbia should be improved, but I'd be very surprised if the Lions finish within 2 games of Cornell. |
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CUJacob Senior Posts 353 |
03-09-09 12:35 AM - Post#60671
I made a stronger statement than I intended to, or should have. I should have said "I'll be very surprised if Columbia finishes closer than 2 games behind Cornell." It would not shock me if, for instance, Cornell went 11-3 and Columbia 9-5. I think Cornell is going to be 12-2 or 13-1 though. |
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Old Bear Postdoc Posts 4008 |
03-09-09 10:10 AM - Post#60681
Cornell will be better, Penn and Brown much better. I don't see 9-5 for the Lions. |
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Dr. V PhD Student Posts 1539 |
03-09-09 11:37 AM - Post#60688
Only thing that would really surprise is if Cornell didn't win, given that Foote, Wittman and Dale are returning. Nothing else would shock. Injuries aside, and that's obviously a huge aside that can turn everything upside down, could the Lions be better than this year? Yes. By far the most impressive characteristic about the Lions this year was their collective mental and physical toughness and intensity. If they can maintain that next year, and I believe they should be able to given that the players who bring that toughness are all coming back (e.g., Bulger, Agho, Scott, Ampim), they can be better if they can shoot better, and that's a big if in that we're not a good shooting team and our best shooter, KJ, is graduating. Shooting, unlike other features of a player's game, can be improved through work, by correcting various problems of form and just by shooting hours and hours. If our players can do that, we can be formidable. If not, not. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-09-09 12:15 PM - Post#60690
I also think Harvard will improve, though they could just as easily go the other way Potential injuries aside, it's hard to imagine Harvard getting worse. The schedule will dictate next season's W's and L's, but if next year's team got to play this year's schedule again, there's no reason to believe they couldn't win 20 games... |
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The Cornell Basketball Blog Freshman Posts 97 |
03-09-09 12:57 PM - Post#60693
I also think Harvard will improve, though they could just as easily go the other way Potential injuries aside, it's hard to imagine Harvard getting worse. The schedule will dictate next season's W's and L's, but if next year's team got to play this year's schedule again, there's no reason to believe they couldn't win 20 games... I'd disagree. Losses of Housman, Harris and Pusar are going to hurt more than you think.
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-09-09 01:43 PM - Post#60696
This is the wrong board to have this argument on, but are you serious? Housman will be missed tremendously. He leads the Ivy League in Offensive Rating (I know, I was surprised too...), he gets to the line on offense and distributes the ball, and keeps his hands to himself on D while racking up tons of steals. Over the past three weeks, he's done enough to make him the second most irreplaceable senior in the Ivies (and he'd be tops if "folding the program" wasn't one of Dartmouth's top post-Barnett plans). McNally will be an okay replacement for Housman. He has a good handle and his offensive efficiency numbers are far ahead of Housman's as a frosh. That being said, Housman didn't make his jump to becoming a true star point guard until this season (he may have scored a lot more as a soph, but his efficiency numbers were terrible - he took a ton of shots to get his points and was a turnover waiting to happen). There is certainly a production gap between what Housman provided this year and what McNally can be reasonably expected to provide next year. As for Pusar and Harris: While both players certainly have had their moments in Harvard uniforms, this year was hardly either of their finest years. Harris provided a boost down the stretch to a threadbare frontcourt, and Pusar provided reliable interior grit and miraculous, among-the-trees layups. But neither did anything that one would label remotely irreplaceable. At the end of the day, the question is quite simple: Would you trade Housman, Harris and Pusar for Magnarelli, Van Nest, Miller, Curry, Giger, Georgatos, Webster and Casey? If you're answer to that is a clear yes, like it is for me, then you gotta think that this team is going to get dramatically better... |
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Howard Gensler Postdoc Posts 4141 |
03-09-09 02:18 PM - Post#60699
Here's the problem with the Columbia rising to the top argument: 1. The Lions are currently 288 in the RPI. Assuming Cornell just stays where it is, the Lions would have to rise 170 or so spots to be in their league. 2. They compiled their 12-16, 7-7 record against the 319th toughest schedule in D1. In order to be considered in the same breath as the team at the top of the League, the Lions probably would have had to have gone 24-4 against that schedule. 3. They lose their top inside player and top 3-point shooter. 4. While they have potential quality players in a healthy Grimes, transfer Craig and a healthier Ampim and Foley, none of them is projected to be first team all-Ivy next year. 5. The Lions finished the season losing to a down Penn team - at home - after Penn got crushed at Cornell the night before - on a night in which two of Penn's top three scorers (Bernardini hurt, and Gaines missing shots) combined for one point. Of course starnger things have happened - Harvard beat Boston College - but a Lion title next year seems highly unlikely. |
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internetter Postdoc Posts 3400 |
03-09-09 03:34 PM - Post#60708
Are there any projections for next year's all-Ivy? The pre-season poll at the top of this board has the Lions finishing 6th. They can finish no lower than tied for 4th and could be for third, depending on P@P.
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Pete Smith Senior Posts 314 |
03-09-09 04:00 PM - Post#60710
Old Bear, I just don't see your Bruins being a whole lot better next year. The only good part of an analysis of your roster is you don't really lose much. I would much rather be Harvard - with admittedly a real key loss in Housman - but a LOT of strong newcomers. |
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Pete Smith Senior Posts 314 |
03-09-09 04:04 PM - Post#60712
mrjames You have to learn not to let BRF raise your blood pressure. Seeing who he can offend must be one of his rare pleasures in life. |
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Penn94 PhD Student Posts 1461 |
03-09-09 04:05 PM - Post#60713
The pre-season poll at the top of this board has the Lions finishing 6th. They can finish no lower than tied for 4th and could be for third, depending on P@P. Regardless of the P/P game, there will only be two games that separate 2nd place from 7th. So your "no lower than tied for 4th and could be third" could also be written as "one game out of tied for 7th". Big deal. Don't know what point you are trying to make about pre-season polls. The league was horrificlly bad this year. The only thing that the standings tell you aside from Cornell winning is that every league game has to end with a winner. |
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Pete Smith Senior Posts 314 |
03-09-09 04:14 PM - Post#60716
I think a lot of people have been overly harsh on the quality of the league this year. Outside of Brown, which unquestionably lost a lot from last year (and went 3-11 versus 'hopeful memory' 9-5?), everyone else was about the same or maybe a little better. And before you get apoplectic about Penn being historically terrible, I think - and I believe the stats would bear this out - they are 'about the same' as last year. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-09-09 05:05 PM - Post#60722
And before you get apoplectic about Penn being historically terrible, I think - and I believe the stats would bear this out - they are 'about the same' as last year. Slightly better on offense, much better on defense according to Pomeroy... |
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Howard Gensler Postdoc Posts 4141 |
03-09-09 05:59 PM - Post#60726
Are there any projections for next year's all-Ivy? Yeah. I'll take Dale, Wittman, Foote, Lin and Mullery and give you the field and, barring injury, we'll see who gets more players on the first team. |
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The Lion King Junior Posts 257 |
03-09-09 07:58 PM - Post#60734
Who are all these guys? And where have they been all season? This debate has gone on too long already, so I'll just say that (1) this year's Ivy League had one team a lot better than Columbia, one team a lot worse, and five teams roughly equal, and (2) the Lions' fate next year depends in large part on two players who are talented and experienced but have not yet played a minute for the Lions. To me, that's enough uncertainty that they could easily finish anywhere from second through seventh. I've seen what Foley can do, so I'm inclined to put them near the top of that range, but as I say, this year's teams are so closely bunched that any predictions basically amount to guesswork. |
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skiba34 Masters Student Posts 952 |
03-09-09 10:29 PM - Post#60743
Here's the problem with the Columbia rising to the top argument: 1. The Lions are currently 288 in the RPI. Assuming Cornell just stays where it is, the Lions would have to rise 170 or so spots to be in their league. 2. They compiled their 12-16, 7-7 record against the 319th toughest schedule in D1. In order to be considered in the same breath as the team at the top of the League, the Lions probably would have had to have gone 24-4 against that schedule. 3. They lose their top inside player and top 3-point shooter. 4. While they have potential quality players in a healthy Grimes, transfer Craig and a healthier Ampim and Foley, none of them is projected to be first team all-Ivy next year. 5. The Lions finished the season losing to a down Penn team - at home - after Penn got crushed at Cornell the night before - on a night in which two of Penn's top three scorers (Bernardini hurt, and Gaines missing shots) combined for one point. Of course starnger things have happened - Harvard beat Boston College - but a Lion title next year seems highly unlikely. A few replies: 1- Matsui was not the best shooter, Scott was. Matsui wasn't even a starter and certainly not one of the tougher players Columbia has. 2- Losing Miller may not be a loss if reports are accurate on Craig who is substantial bigger than Miller. he is being reported as having strong hands and deceptive athletic ability. 3 - I still say like I did in my other posts, that the injuries suffered by Columbia's key or best players are greater then the others. Combine a hopefully injury free team with transfer Craig gives Columbia the most room for improvement.. 4 - You are absolutely right however that Columbia should have in no way lost to Penn and yet it happened. 5 - By no means will I say Columbia will win it all, because they are truly unpredictable. But I agree with the above statements by CU.LIONS that Columbia has some of the toughest guards in Scott, Bulger and Agho defensively. If that guard tandem can get better help upfront (Grimes, Ampim, Craig) they may very well surprise. The toughness and chemistry displayed this season is reason to be hopeful more than any year in recent memory. When it is all said and done, Cornell should be the team again, but stranger things have happened. |
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Penn94 PhD Student Posts 1461 |
03-09-09 11:17 PM - Post#60746
I think a lot of people have been overly harsh on the quality of the league this year. Outside of Brown, which unquestionably lost a lot from last year (and went 3-11 versus 'hopeful memory' 9-5?), everyone else was about the same or maybe a little better. And before you get apoplectic about Penn being historically terrible, I think - and I believe the stats would bear this out - they are 'about the same' as last year. Pete. The league stunk last year too. So congrats. The league is just as bad this year as last. The fact that the champion went 11-3 instead of 14-0 with absolutely no quality wins (unlike last year when Cornell beat Siena) makes this season even worse. Whether Penn is slightly better than last year or not is irrelevant. It's like discussing shades of cr*p. |
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SomeGuy Professor Posts 6418 |
03-10-09 10:18 AM - Post#60754
Scott had a better shooting percentage than Matsui this year, but I don't think he's a better 3 point shooter. Matsui hit nearly twice as many 3s as Scott this year. From an opponent's perspective, I'd say that I'd rather see Scott taking 3s than driving, and Matsui should never get an open look from out there. If he does, there's been a breakdown of some kind. As for the injuries, I still don't see it. Harvard lost their 4 for the season, and he's better than any of your 4s who got hurt (and missed fewer games). Cornell lost their PG for as many games as you lost your PG for, and again, their guy is the better player. Penn lost two starters for the entire season. |
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-10-09 11:19 AM - Post#60767
Harvard lost their 4 for the season, and he's better than any of your 4s who got hurt (and missed fewer games). Yeah, using Magnarelli's 2008 stats, his offensive rating of 110.9 would have been 5th in the Ivies, his Off Reb% of 8.8 would have ranked 4th in the Ivies, his Def Reb% of 18.2 would have placed him 5th in the Ivies, his Blk% of 3.2 would have been 12th in the league, and his TS% of 60.5 would have been 3rd in the Ivies. A pretty massive loss for a team in desperate need of a frontcourt presence... |
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The Cornell Basketball Blog Freshman Posts 97 |
03-10-09 03:04 PM - Post#60788
Scott had a better shooting percentage than Matsui this year, but I don't think he's a better 3 point shooter. Matsui hit nearly twice as many 3s as Scott this year. From an opponent's perspective, I'd say that I'd rather see Scott taking 3s than driving, and Matsui should never get an open look from out there. If he does, there's been a breakdown of some kind. As for the injuries, I still don't see it. Harvard lost their 4 for the season, and he's better than any of your 4s who got hurt (and missed fewer games). Cornell lost their PG for as many games as you lost your PG for, and again, their guy is the better player. Penn lost two starters for the entire season. Cornell lost Dale for 8 games (9 if you count his brief stint against Minnesota where he was rushed back too soon)). Gore was out for 20+ games. Cornell also played this weekend with Reeves (another starter). Big Red return all five starters (Foote, Tyler, Wittman, Dale and Reeves) plus the top 2 reserves in Wire and Wroblewski (Kreefer the only loss in the 8 man rotation). Cornell adds Mark Coury and Max Groebe, two guys who the program believes are All-Ivy caliber next season. Barring health issues, the other 7 teams can begin to make plans for trying to get to the CBI.
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mrjames Professor Posts 6062 |
03-10-09 03:33 PM - Post#60792
Are there any projections for next year's all-Ivy? First Team All-Ivy 09-10 G Louis Dale G Geoff Reeves F Ryan Wittman F Alex Tyler C Jeff Foote Second Team All-Ivy 09-10 G Chris Wroblewski G Max Groebe G Adam Wire F Mark Coury F Peter McMillan ROY - Peter McMillan Co-POYs - Ryan Wittman, Louis Dale and BRF |
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Old Bear Postdoc Posts 4008 |
03-10-09 04:40 PM - Post#60799
Never mind. |
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The Cornell Basketball Blog Freshman Posts 97 |
03-10-09 05:25 PM - Post#60807
Are there any projections for next year's all-Ivy? First Team All-Ivy 09-10 G Louis Dale G Geoff Reeves F Ryan Wittman F Alex Tyler C Jeff Foote Second Team All-Ivy 09-10 G Chris Wroblewski G Max Groebe G Adam Wire F Mark Coury F Peter McMillan ROY - Peter McMillan Co-POYs - Ryan Wittman, Louis Dale and BRF Looks good to me.
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pennhoops Postdoc Posts 2470 |
03-11-09 10:26 AM - Post#60857
Did BRF pay this time or are you just bending over out of your own good nature? |
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Columbia 37P6 Postdoc Posts 2184 |
03-13-09 06:25 PM - Post#61147
According to The Cornell Basketball Blog all five of Cornell's starters and seven key reserves, including the Rookie of the Year, are returning next season. Then. according to the information on the Blog, Cornell is adding two big-time transfers from the University of Kentucky and Boston University, as well as four or five very promising freshman recruits. If the information on the Blog is correct, and I assume it is, how can anyone reasonably expect a competitive Ivy League race next season? |
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The Lion King Junior Posts 257 |
03-13-09 09:20 PM - Post#61152
No question that Cornell is a strong favorite next year, but they were supposed to be better this year than last, and they won three fewer league games. So you never know. They have a lot of good players on their roster, even after deducting 50% for BRF hype, but they can only put five on the floor at a time. Here's how I look at it: Columbia has played some close games against Cornell the last few years, though it seems like they haven't won one since the Clinton administration. Suppose that this year they had split with Cornell, and furthermore that they had held on and beaten Penn. That would have left Cornell at 10-4 and Columbia at 9-5. So if (a) Columbia, with two big-time transfers and two major players coming back healthy, improves a little more than Cornell does, and (b) Columbia finally beats Cornell and gets some lucky breaks in a couple other games, they could manage a tie. I'm not saying all this is likely, but it's not inconceivable. |
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Old Bear Postdoc Posts 4008 |
03-14-09 11:25 AM - Post#61162
Love the optimism King. |
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Howard Gensler Postdoc Posts 4141 |
03-14-09 10:21 PM - Post#61184
According to The Cornell Basketball Blog all five of Cornell's starters and seven key reserves, including the Rookie of the Year, are returning next season. Then. according to the information on the Blog, Cornell is adding two big-time transfers from the University of Kentucky and Boston University, as well as four or five very promising freshman recruits. If the information on the Blog is correct, and I assume it is, how can anyone reasonably expect a competitive Ivy League race next season? Fortunately for the rest of the League, Cornell can't play 18 all-League players at once - and some poor Big Red stud at the end of the bench may be shut out of Honorable Mention next year. |
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The Lion King Junior Posts 257 |
03-14-09 10:54 PM - Post#61185
Not sure if you're being sarcastic, Old Bear, but it works either way. When you're a Columbia fan, you learn to be boundlessly and perpetually hopeful, but not to actually believe any of it. |
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Old Bear Postdoc Posts 4008 |
03-16-09 10:01 AM - Post#61287
I do understand. |
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