mrjames
Postdoc
Posts: 3006
Loc: New York, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-09-12 10:22 AM - Post#119835
In response to Silver Maple
I have every Vegas spread since 1995 for every game. The average spread misses by zero. The average line moves less than a half-point from open to close.
While the assertion that Vegas sets the line to get equal money on both sides is very much true, it is faulty to imply that the way in which it gets equal money on both sides isn't by setting the line in an actuarially fair manner.
It wasn't pchrystie's point that was stupid, it was his example. At the level of money we're talking about in the college basketball market, getting equal money on both sides means setting a true line, which means a true assessment of the quality of the teams.
It's not that I think I'm the only person that knows anything about quantitative analysis. I do loads of research on this stuff and people who are genuinely interested in what I do contact me privately. We walk through everything in moderate to expansive detail. I feel comfortable debating with those folks because they've taken the time to understand what I do.
The reason I stopped presenting my research on these boards - as I said a few months ago - is that I don't have the time to debate this stuff in a public forum, especially when a baseline level of understanding isn't there. I'm still willing to, and have, presented stuff when asked, but I just can't waste my time on these arguments anymore.
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