02-09-12 10:07 PM - Post#119922 In response to mrjames
It wasn't pchrystie's point that was stupid, it was his example.
So you're saying that if Vegas determined that it could make the most money in a Kentucky-Binghamton game at Kentucky +7, they would set the line at Kentucky -37 just out of some sense of honor in spread setting? I understand that Vegas would never set the line at Kentucky +7, but it has nothing to do with that being the inaccurate prediction; it has to do with the inaccurate prediction losing money.
And Vegas does set lines where an objective observer and/or computer would not set them. While we may not agree on much on this board, I assume we can all agree that Cowboy fans are mor0ns. My understanding is that Vegas sets the line to compensate for their mor0nitude, i.e. not where an objective observer or a computer would tell them to set it.
It's not about accuracy. It's about money. If the two coincide, fine (and they probably usually do). But they don't always.