PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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03-02-16 12:13 AM - Post#203117
In response to mrjames
I love it when people tell me what the data says when (as far as I know) I'm the only person with an actual dataset here. It covers like 500 Ivy recruits and goes back to 2002. And yet, this is the crap I have to deal with:
Me: I spent a ton of hours cobbling together this data, and here's what it says.
Someone else: I think that's wrong. Look at this data point.
Someone else: Yeah, when I cherry pick four data points, the data says this different thing.
Me: You have to take a comprehensive view to understand the underlying trends here. I have, and here's what the data says.
Someone else: But what about how this one thing that happened once?
Me: (Head hits table)
I think you highlight a good point as most people don't have all the data and tend to curve fit what data they have into their world view (read: the team they cheer for).
But some of what you describe could also be standard deviation, which happens far more than we care to admit. The mean distribution for next year says it's likely Harvard is pretty good, but injuries and other things (suspensions) happen and change those distributions.
The point of this thread is to say that the success of Harvard is contagious and the rest of the league is likely to benefit rather than be bifurcated to those outcomes. I think in 5-10 years we will come to see an at large bid for the Ivy's as a new normal and the league will be a top 10 conference overall. That's because of the changing demographics and values of today's athlete and the adjustments by (some) of the Ivy League schools to capitalize on those demographics.
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