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Username Post: Vermont
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-05-17 07:20 PM - Post#217389    
    In response to PennFan10

I mean, here were the confounding factors in breaking the game down:

1) Harvard turnovers. This game looks to be another exhibit in the mounting evidence that this offense will never reduce its gaudy turnover rate. 14 turnovers on 62 possessions (23%) is right about at Harvard's terrible season average. That being said, six of the turnovers were on (very questionable) offensive fouls. In a normal game, you might expect a couple, maybe three max. Reduce the offensive fouls to that number and the TO Rate looks reasonable or even good at 16-18%.

2) Harvard's defensive rebounding. Also, not an area the Crimson has excelled this season, so it wasn't surprising to see them struggle here. But a 48% offensive rebound rate allowed is pretty abnormal, and if you watched the game, so many OREBs were weird bounces that could have easily bounced the other way.

3) 2 PT jumper % allowed: I had Vermont at 10-for-17 on two-point jumpers (59%). They actually shot worse around the rim (16-for-33). And Harvard getting UVM to take ~30% of shots as 2 PT Js is better than UVM's season average, as was Harvard getting Vermont only to take 8-of-58 shots (14%) from three. If Vermont shot about average on jumpers, it would have ceded 9 points right there.

4) Harvard itself outperformed on a luck basis. It shot 5-for-10 on 2pt Js (a great, low rate of 2pt Js!!!, but better than it should shoot). It also shot 7-for-14 from three. So Harvard also outperformed on jumpers by about 9 pts.

5) Harvard's offensive shot selection was great. Roughly 20% 2pt Js, 30% threes and 50% at rim (where it shot 16-for-25). For the season, roughly 60% of Harvard's baskets at the rim are assisted and 86% of its threes are as well. Vermont is decent at stopping assisted baskets, but not amazing at it. There's no reason Harvard's assist rate should have been 32%.

There were still really concerning things that probably weren't luck: Harvard got lost a LOT on defense and gave up easy buckets. It failed to win a lot of one-on-one battles defensively in the post. Corey Johnson is now 1-for-12 in his past four games from three and worse seems reticent to shoot out of the slump. Z continues to struggle to be a force offensively, and when he doesn't rebound in droves defensively, his value is limited. Harvard is still struggling to find any consistent contributions from non-freshmen other than Siyani.
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