dperry
Postdoc
Posts: 2211
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
|
01-16-17 12:55 PM - Post#218483
In response to mrjames
Looking at the historical record, since the league went to eight teams in 1953-54, here's what the fourth-place teams have done (number in parenthesis is the number of times there was a tie in which someone would have been eliminated):
5 wins: 1 time (1), 1.59%
6 wins: 10 times (6), 17.46%
7 wins: 30 times (11), 47.62%
8 wins: 12 times (2), 19.05%
9 wins: 9 times (0), 14.29%
Total: 62 seasons. Average: 7.29 wins
Note: in '62-'63, Cornell finished in 4th at 6-7; their second game with Columbia was snowed out twice and not made up. I've thrown that year out here.
The women have been similar, albeit shifted slightly higher (went to eight teams in 1986-87):
6 wins: 2 times (2), 6.67%
7 wins: 13 times (5), 43.33%
8 wins: 12 times (1), 40.00%
9 wins: 2 times (0), 6.67%
10 wins: 1 time (0), 3.33%
Total: 30 seasons. Average: 7.57 wins
So realistically, you need eight wins to have a good shot at making the cut (80%-85% of the time after allowing for tiebreakers.) Seven wins looks like it's less than 50-50 after considering ties.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!" |
|