Untitled Document
Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



Username Post: Ivy Title/Tourney Odds
dperry 
Postdoc
Posts: 2211
dperry
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
01-16-17 12:55 PM - Post#218483    
    In response to mrjames

Looking at the historical record, since the league went to eight teams in 1953-54, here's what the fourth-place teams have done (number in parenthesis is the number of times there was a tie in which someone would have been eliminated):

5 wins: 1 time (1), 1.59%
6 wins: 10 times (6), 17.46%
7 wins: 30 times (11), 47.62%
8 wins: 12 times (2), 19.05%
9 wins: 9 times (0), 14.29%

Total: 62 seasons. Average: 7.29 wins

Note: in '62-'63, Cornell finished in 4th at 6-7; their second game with Columbia was snowed out twice and not made up. I've thrown that year out here.

The women have been similar, albeit shifted slightly higher (went to eight teams in 1986-87):

6 wins: 2 times (2), 6.67%
7 wins: 13 times (5), 43.33%
8 wins: 12 times (1), 40.00%
9 wins: 2 times (0), 6.67%
10 wins: 1 time (0), 3.33%

Total: 30 seasons. Average: 7.57 wins

So realistically, you need eight wins to have a good shot at making the cut (80%-85% of the time after allowing for tiebreakers.) Seven wins looks like it's less than 50-50 after considering ties.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!"

NOTE: You are viewing an individual Post. View the Entire Topic




Copyright © 2004-2012 Basketball U. Terms of Use for our Site and Privacy Policy are applicable to you. All rights reserved.
Basketball U. and its subsidiaries are not affiliated in any way with any NCAA athletic conference or member institution.
FusionBB™ Version 2.1 | ©2003-2007 InteractivePHP, Inc.
Execution time: 0.289 seconds.   Total Queries: 13   Zlib Compression is on.
All times are (GMT -0500) Eastern. Current time is 04:05 PM
Top