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Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



Username Post: Ivy Title/Tourney Odds
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-26-17 10:09 AM - Post#219489    
    In response to SomeGuy

Apologies - this is straight out of R so it's not terribly clean, but the data is here...

Four-team pairings:
teams counts
1 ,,,,harvard,princeton,pen n,yale 0.322
9 ,columbia,,,harvard,princ eton,,yale 0.238
17 brown,,,,harvard,princeto n,,yale 0.204
5 ,,cornell,,harvard,prince ton,,yale 0.138
7 ,columbia,,,,princeton,pe nn,yale 0.021
15 brown,,,,,princeton,penn, yale 0.015
22 brown,columbia,,,,princet on,,yale 0.012
4 ,,cornell,,,princeton,pen n,yale 0.009
2 ,,,dartmouth,harvard,prin ceton,,yale 0.008
12 ,columbia,cornell,,,princ eton,,yale 0.007
19 brown,,cornell,,,princeto n,,yale 0.007
10 ,columbia,,,harvard,princ eton,penn, 0.004
3 ,,,dartmouth,harvard,prin ceton,penn, 0.002
25 brown,columbia,,,harvard, princeton,, 0.002
6 ,,cornell,,harvard,prince ton,penn, 0.001
8 ,columbia,,,harvard,,penn ,yale 0.001
11 ,columbia,,dartmouth,harv ard,princeton,, 0.001
13 ,columbia,cornell,,harvar d,,,yale 0.001
14 ,columbia,cornell,,harvar d,princeton,, 0.001
16 brown,,,,harvard,,penn,ya le 0.001
18 brown,,,,harvard,princeto n,penn, 0.001
20 brown,,cornell,,harvard,, ,yale 0.001
21 brown,,cornell,,harvard,p rinceton,, 0.001
23 brown,columbia,,,,princet on,penn, 0.001
24 brown,columbia,,,harvard, ,,yale 0.001


Summary table:
share solo avgwins Upper95 Lower95 first second third fourth teams
1 0.004 0.000 5.592 8.51 2.67 0.001 0.011 0.047 0.187 brown
2 0.006 0.002 5.841 8.85 2.83 0.003 0.014 0.058 0.215 columbia
3 0.001 0.000 5.153 8.06 2.25 0.000 0.007 0.032 0.127 cornell
4 0.000 0.000 2.988 5.70 0.28 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.010 dartmouth
5 0.209 0.106 9.173 12.24 6.10 0.165 0.228 0.416 0.119 harvard
6 0.004 0.001 6.179 9.08 3.27 0.002 0.012 0.066 0.298 penn
7 0.641 0.436 10.878 13.61 8.15 0.522 0.315 0.140 0.018 princeton
8 0.403 0.223 10.196 12.87 7.52 0.307 0.413 0.240 0.026 yale

Ivy Tourney table:
teams tourneyodds playoffOLD semiL finalL bid
1 brown 0.246 0.232 0.198 0.038 0.010
2 columbia 0.290 0.232 0.212 0.059 0.019
3 cornell 0.166 0.232 0.137 0.024 0.005
4 dartmouth 0.011 0.232 0.010 0.001 0.000
5 harvard 0.928 0.232 0.516 0.243 0.169
6 penn 0.378 0.232 0.199 0.097 0.082
7 princeton 0.995 0.232 0.347 0.260 0.388
8 yale 0.986 0.232 0.381 0.278 0.327

Ws for fourth:
5 6 7 8 9 10
0.012 0.174 0.449 0.318 0.046 0.001

Ws for fifth:
4 5 6 7 8
0.006 0.178 0.523 0.268 0.025

Odds of tie for fourth by number of wins for fourth:
9 - 0%
8 - 7%
7 - 31%
6 - 74%
5 - 100%
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