mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-21-17 07:44 PM - Post#222928
In response to cc66
No problem, and I should be precise about the numbers, because the answer isn't 0%.
For Columbia's win over Harvard to be the difference, Columbia would need to beat Penn, yet underperform the Quakers by a game in the other three games WITHOUT Penn beating Harvard. And it would need to do so without a 3rd team matching Columbia and Penn, at which point things get really weird.
Those specific paths (essentially including Penn winning at Cornell and vs Dartmouth, losing at Columbia and home to Harvard and having Columbia lose to Princeton and exactly one of Brown or Yale) only happen in about 5% of sims. And while it's possible they could tie on 5 wins without anyone joining them, that happens in just 0.4% of sims. Thus, if Penn loses to Cornell on Friday night, it would clinch the tiebreaker with Columbia if it becomes necessary, because catching Columbia would require either beating the Lions or Harvard. (Again, all of this assuming Columbia doesn't beat Princeton - if it does, it would then just need to beat Penn to secure the tiebreak).
Even with 4 games left, there are still a ton of possible outcomes, that's why, to simplify, for two-way ties between these two teams basically it's easiest to think of Columbia needing a sweep this weekend to nab the tiebreak or a win over Penn and a very specific (and unlikely) set of Penn outcomes.
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