Going outside the tourney teams hurts Penn but I don't think it "really really hurts" Penn. Most of the scenarios don't get there. First we're assuming a tie. If Penn and Columbia are tied and Penn didn't beat Harvard, Penn is out because they failed to beat a seeded team (Harvard) If Penn beat Harvard and Columbia lost to Yale, Columbia is out because they failed to beat a seeded team (Yale). If Penn and Columbia win out AND Yale loses to Cornell - Yale is out because they failed to beat a seeded team (Harvard).

So the scenarios we are looking at are Columbia and Penn both sweeping (and Yale winning on Friday) or both losing on Friday and winning on Saturday. This would mean both teams were tied and have the same record v. the top 3. Based on the tourney team only tiebreaker Penn would go through based on ratings.

But even here, Penn still goes through in many scenarios. Penn has a sweep of Cornell in the bank. If Columbia and Penn sweep scenario, Columbia will have swept Brown, so the winner of the Cornell-Brown game will determine which team as the higher sweep. If Cornell wins, Penn goes through.

In the second scenario, both teams will have split with Brown, so as long as Cornell remains ahead or tied with Dartmouth, Penn goes through. I am assuming if Cornell and Dartmouth are tied for 7th, both Penn and Columbia are 2-2 against them and it goes to ratings.

So the only scenarios where going to the non-tourney teams hurts Penn are 1) Penn and Columbia sweep, Yale beats Cornell and Brown beats Cornell. 2) Penn and Columbia lose Friday and win Saturday. If Dartmouth beats Princeton and Cornell does not sweep OR if Dartmouth loses to Princeton and Cornell gets swept.

So there are a couple of scenarios where Penn would need a Cornell win over Brown. More interesting is a Cornell win against Yale creates a couple of more paths for Penn to get in. Kind of makes Penn fans wish they were nicer to Brian Earl?