mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-06-17 05:26 PM - Post#225284
In response to cc66
There are four pieces of information one could look at to understand the possible impact of a recruit:
1) AAU Stats (particularly efficiency and translatable skills like rebounding)
2) Recruiting Rankings
3) Offers
4) What folks around the league are saying about different classes
Both 1 and 2 have some predictive power, but I'd classify it as low. I've actually quantified the predictive power of No. 2 and will have No. 1 as well, once we get enough data on Ivy players.
Offers have more predictive power - if they're honest offers. That point makes creating a database of offers tricky. It's pretty clear, though, that if a player has legit offers from power conference schools, you can throw out the recruiting rankings.
Obviously, the buzz around the league is closest to spot on. As much as I get boxed in as an "analytics" person, I have a deep respect for the intuitive scouting ability of coaching staffs. That information is gold - trumps all the other stuff.
Whether or not it pans out remains to be seen, but the two kids that generated the most buzz around the league were Much and Djuricic.
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