mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-22-17 11:53 AM - Post#227894
In response to Bryan
Just a quick update - looks like Pomeroy changed the way his data downloads, so I was pulling in Raw rather than Adjusted ORAT/DRAT as the basis for last year's numbers. That has a minor impact on the expected numbers:
Team Adj Eff Marg ImpRank
Harvard +9.81 70
Princeton +8.37 85
Yale +8.44 86
Penn +1.78 140
Columbia -3.27 188
Cornell -5.77 219
Dartmouth -7.13 236
Brown -10.88 275
There's a little more to what's going on here than just continuity. The model also pulls teams down to or up to their prior year averages and league averages. So, for a team like Penn, it's going to have a little more drag on it than Harvard will (as well as Princeton and Yale, which both have strong historical numbers to buoy them).
Beyond that though, there is zero complexity to this model. I used to do a far more accurate version of this, looking through at actual players and projecting them out based on growth curves. That's just beyond the scope of what I have time for these days, but this model serves a nifty 80/20 purpose.
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