mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-24-17 03:26 PM - Post#228894
In response to Dr. V
FG% is a misleading stat. Because Aiken took a much higher percentage of his shots as threes than Smith did, you'd expect his FG% to be lower. Once you adjust for the 3-point shot (eFG%), Aiken's eFG is ~4 pp higher.
Assist-to-turnover tells some of a story, but really misses the bigger point - namely that the two aren't related stats. What we care about more are the independent rates: What percent of the team's baskets that you didn't score while you were on the floor did you have an assist on and what percent of your used possessions were used by you turning the ball over.
Since Aiken used a higher percentage of possessions, you'd expect him to have more turnovers. Aiken's TO Rate was 18.8 percent, which is pretty good for a ball-dominant freshman (better than Siyani's was). Smith's was SUPERB at just under 14%. If he keeps that up, that's extremely valuable.
Their assist rates were pretty much equal: 22.1% for Aiken, 22.8% for Smith.
Their steal rates were essentially equivalent, due to the difference in numbers of oppt poss faced based on different playing time.
Rates are extremely important, as is adjusting for the three-point shot. When you do that, Smith's only real advantage over Aiken was his extreme stinginess with turnovers, while Aiken got the better of shooting and usage. That's why Aiken's efficiency for the year was slightly better than Smith's even at a higher usage rate.
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