mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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05-16-17 11:02 AM - Post#229356
In response to digamma
The really surprising finding around home court has been that it's *not* fan driven. Home court remains pretty consistent across sparsely attended games or rabidly attended games.
Frankly, the biggest move on HCA recently is that 3pters tend to be less sensitive to HCA, so teams that shoot a ton of threes tend to see less benefit at home and less of a penalty on the road. The thought behind this continues to point toward the theory that the more you do in the 50/50 world (specifically with contact), the more decisions will slightly tilt your way regardless of whether there are fans in the stands or not.
Certainly KenPom found as much when looking at offense versus defense control, teams shoot about 0.7% better than average from three at home, but 2PT shooting goes up by 1.4%, FT Rate rises by 2.8 pp, block rate goes up by 1.2%. As KP says, offensive control over shooting decreases as you get closer to the basket, so if you're at home and your defense at the hoop is given more of the benefit of the doubt (more blocks, fewer fouls) and vice versa on the other end, that's how HCA is generated.
So, arguably, the better way to neutralize a road game is to be a team heavily weighted towards taking threes rather than bringing a bunch of your own fans.
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