mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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08-10-17 05:30 PM - Post#231823
In response to PennFan10
So, there is an important distinction here, and I want to be clear on what I'm talking about.
I haven't done my full view yet, but I think Penn will have strong odds to be Top 4 and, if so, will be two home games away from the NCAA Tournament. With the HCA boost, I'd expect a Penn team to have a non-trivial chance (for magnitude sake, let's say 15-20%) to win two games. I'm not addressing that question, and my comment about them being a "long, long way" doesn't apply to that.
I want to get a sense of how good teams truly will be, because that's a more predictable endeavor than the specific outcome of one trial and getting that right can help define the likelihood of drawing any one specific trial. Penn's starting point is the lowest of the four, it lost Matt Howard whose lineup splits were insane and finished third in win shares among non-Princeton players and its frosh class isn't expected to be the best in the Ivies. That to me looks like a team that ends up closer to where it started than one that makes a leap to solidly Top 100 (where it would need to be to be among the conversation as tops in the Ivies).
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