UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1122
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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10-16-17 10:37 PM - Post#234069
Here’s two perspectives about Penn’s chances on contending this year. To the good we optimists can point to multiple chances for improvement – basically because the talent is getting better.
We have four seniors, Wood, Foreman, Matt McDonald and Jones all of who can contribute. Foreman, while not an Ivy all star is a useful player – decent D and a 99 OR. That was the best OR for a 1 or 2 guard since Miles C in 2014. Both Wood and Jones are one-dimensional players, but they both can shoot. On a deeper team they could be quite valuable coming off the bench. As to Matt Mc all he did last year was have an OR of 104. Maybe a bit more aggressiveness with the ball could produce another Belcore-like senior year.
We can hope that one of the Juniors Max, Antonio, Tyler H and Jake Silpe can morph into something useful. Woods has the best chance off his highlight games as a freshman, but any of them could find a solid role as a backup. Could Jake realize his potential as a heralded recruit? Could Tyler add enough offense to make his strength and defense useful? Can Max add that one skill that moves him from passable to really useful? This class has clearly been a disappointment. We can hope to get some real return after two years of learning.
Of course, the real surprise of last year was the emergence of two freshmen as stars and glimpses of the potential in another. Just a few touches of polish will cement Brodeur as an Ivy stud. Maybe that is not a big improvement over last year, but it would provide a powerful anchor for three more years. Should Betley continue his last eight-game pace this year, we have the second anchor – almost to the level of talent needed to contend. Of equal value would be Devon taking over at lead guard, the weakest position during the tribe’s wandering in the wilderness.
These three what if’s, should they all come home are enough, given the other talent to make Penn a contender. A stud up front, an assassin on the wing and a good point guard would be enough of a foundation to move significantly upward. Sure, Harvard could make the jump to light speed. Can’t do a thing about that.
The optimism continues when considering an incoming class with at least equal potential to last year’s. Simmons won’t start like Brodeur did. But AJ filled a vacuum. If Simmons can play, Penn would have a fully talented front court for the first time since Dougherty and DNH. (A cautionary tale that 8-20 team). We are hoping Scott fills in for the Howard loss and there is lot’s of room for Williams to contribute in the back court. It is a sign of the talent improvement that a 7’2†center, good enough to be all state in Utah has gotten no notice on this board. Could he contribute 10-15 minutes as a defensive presence? I hope so. Steve has a history of developing such a player. We can sum the potential this way. If this class contributes like last year’s frosh did, the tribe will have reached the promised land.
Oh yes, the second perspective. Last year’s team lost about the same as this year’s team, DNH verses Matt. But, last year two players, Matt and Foreman improved significantly and those three-frosh showed up, contributing more than was expected. We forgot about DNH after only one or two game watching AJ. Plus, the team dynamics improved, especially for turnovers. Yet the team won only two more games.
That suggests a similarly favorable improvement this year, two incumbents improving and two frosh contributing big time, would get us the same two more wins, all the way to 15-13. Oh wow!!!!!
Sure, I am hopeful for bigger improvements. But this perspective reminds us of the stakes at play. Penn needs either a major infusion of talent or a major improvement in team efficiency – or both. I looked up the last championship team. The top four players averaged an OR of 111 against the 102 last year. Can AJ and Betley and  and get to 111 this year?
Oh, yeah, the league is much tougher than in 2008. Maybe Ibby and Mark, and Brian and Steve would have finished second against today’s competition.
Still, this is a team with so much more potential than any of the last terrible ten years.
Maybe Jackson will swat away that last comeback attempt by Princeton in March and we can jump up and down with glee. October is the season of hope!
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