SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6418
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-23-17 11:46 PM - Post#234452
In response to mrjames
Apologies if I am repeating myself here, but Columbia is complicated for this type of prediction this year. They have enough returnees that you could see how one could ignore the freshmen entirely and fill the available minutes. If your model presumes that, though, Columbia would appear likely o get worse. Statistically, they lose 3 of their top 4 players by ORAT, and they lose 2 of the guys with their top 4 usage rates (both with decent ORATs. So you could easily look at Columbia, replace the departing efficient guys with less efficient players who are already in the rotation, and end up with that 288 ranking.
Obviously, the freshmen could understandably be presumed to be better than the returnees in terms of ORATs, which could significantly change the analysis.
Cornell is the opposite-- the loss of Hatter gives his high usage low ORAT possessions to more efficient guys off the bench, so they are presumed to improve in some models.
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