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Username Post: '17 '18 Ivy Pre-Season Predictions
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-01-17 08:16 AM - Post#235203    
    In response to SomeGuy

On its face, it looks like Yale has 3 efficient scorers that can help it ensure that it has at least 2 on the floor together at all times.

Dig a little deeper, though, and both Makai and Alex are likely due for a regression. Makai took 42% of his shots as 2PT Js and made 48% in his last full season while Alex took 38% of his shots as 2PT Js and made 49%. Now, for Makai, that's not as serious of a concern, because he's a career 36% shooter from 3, meaning that you can't just back off and play him inside the arc. Copeland, on the other hand, shot just 29% from three last year and 16% in Ivy play, and as opponents played him more inside the arc to take away his elite at rim ability, his ORAT cratered (122 on 24% usage in non-conf to 104 on 28% usage in conf play). Now, that's still quite good, but regress the 2PT J make rate and it likely continues to tumble. Then, you have to wonder whether he continues to try to be a high usage, low efficiency guy or can transition to a side option for the two stars (even though side options usually are catch-and-shoot 3 guys, which is the thing Copeland can't do).

I don't love either of those two options for Copeland, and I anticipate, without strong gains in 3PT shooting, that he will struggle a bit and in a way that might hurt the team at times. Not a huge Monroe fan in terms of picking up offensive slack, and we know that Phills isn't out there for that purpose, BUT don't sleep on Azar Swain to be productive off the bench. So, one piece of the Yale depth issues, IMO, is that everyone's prohibitive favorite for 6th man of the year (Copeland) might not be an immediate fit for what they're trying to do.

The other piece is that while I think a frontcourt rotation of Reynolds, Bruner and Atkinson could be one of the best Yale has had, that raises both question marks and known issues. Reynolds isn't a true five and needs rebounding help (difference between him and Downey), but can he guard some Ivy 4s (say Stephens or Towns)? Bruner and Atkinson have great potential, and I'm not betting against them, but you kind of need both to be strong contributors. So, I'm a little concerned about whether the depth will materialize there that will allow Yale to put optimal combinations on the floor.

None of this is to say that I don't think Yale is a Top 100 team. Rather, I just think those that are putting them tops in the league (and some far and away the best) are looking at the ceiling and ignoring the risk.
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