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Username Post: UMass
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-17-17 12:21 PM - Post#236778    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

This is going to sound strange, but I'm actually encouraged by last night's performance.

Harvard's not going to shoot 28% from three all year, and it's not going to turn the ball over on 33% of possessions all year (though I suspect it will continue to do so against Holy Cross each year from now to eternity). Also, opponents aren't going to shoot 8-for-16 on two-point Js and 14-for-32 (44%) on non-at-rim shots all year. Nothing you can do there. If Holy Cross shoots closer to average on jumpers, probably a different conversation today despite all the TOs and shooting problems Harvard had.

Also important to note that Harvard's worst TO Rate game last year was... Holy Cross at 31%. Much like last year, I'd expect that to decline, meaning that the Non-TO ORAT is a more important metric to look at. Last night that was 147, which Harvard only eclipsed twice last season (vs. Dartmouth 151 and at Princeton 150). Harvard's average last year was 133, but didn't eclipse 125 until the 4th game of the season, after which it only fell below that mark four times the remainder of the season.

From a personnel standpoint, some oddities are arising. The frontcourt rotation makes a lot more sense right now than the backcourt with Djuricic and Baker looking like solid rotation pieces along with Lewis. Harvard is still missing a contributing piece in the backcourt, especially until Corey gets going. Here I was concerned that the 2018 class has three non-posts and only one big and it looks like that might be where the need is!

At any rate... sure having the L is ugly, but Holy Cross is a Division I basketball team, and you're not going to beat any Division I basketball team if you turn the ball over on 33% of possessions, don't shoot very well and the opponent does shoot quite well. It's a testament to how good this team will likely be that it was able to be in a game where it was so unfortunate in those key areas...
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