mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-25-17 12:11 PM - Post#237558
In response to 84grad
Harvard's starting to find itself, and we're starting to see what it looks like when Harvard doesn't get horribly outshot from 3.
The fact that Harvard has done ANYTHING positive this year while getting only 1.07 ppp on possessions with a 3-point shot is a testament to how good this team is in other areas. They were about +0.2 ppp on possessions with a three versus their opponents last year (which makes sense, because Harvard has a bunch of good shooters), and this year, so far, they've been exactly -0.2ppp. That's going to regress - maybe not to the wedge that Harvard had last year, but it should at least be a bit better than even, given the Crimson's shooters. Given that we see threes on about 20 possessions per game, that's probably 4-5 points per game on average.
With turnovers down big time after a rough start, the team looks really, really good right now. A team like Kentucky - that doesn't mind letting opposing teams play the 3PT lottery in a big way - is one that Harvard can get if it finds the 3PTers it's been missing all season long on one big night. Harvard has been impressive on the defensive glass and that's where Kentucky KILLS opponents, so it would need to stay big there as well.
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